There's being Crazy-Prepared, and then there's this.
Basically, someone makes oddly specific preparations that are tailored for an unlikely future event that they shouldn't have been able to foresee, at least not based on their supposed knowledge. In fact, there's a good chance that the arrangements would've been impractical and inconvenient had a more likely scenario played out instead, making it even more suspicious that the person would prioritize planning for the unlikely event. The only logical explanation is that they secretly knew things would turn out this way beforehand and may even be responsible for it.
Note that for an example to count towards this trope, the preparations must be presented as being unusual or Out of Character for the person who made them. If the story makes it clear that the character is a known eccentric and the actions in question aren't strange for them, then it probably isn't this trope. Additionally, anything presented as a justified safety measure would not be considered an example of this trope unless it's made clear the character normally doesn't bother taking such precautions. Thus, having insurance for stolen valuables wouldn't count, but it could count if the owner previously dismissed the idea of insuring their personal property, only to suddenly and inexplicably change their mind shortly before said property got stolen.
In murder mysteries, this may involve arrangements regarding inheritance or life insurance that occur shortly before a sudden death. Can lead to Blatant Lies and even Implausible Deniability if the person in question tries to dismiss this as a Contrived Coincidence.
Compare to Saying Too Much, Something Only They Would Say, I Never Told You My Name, and I Never Said It Was Poison for when the liar reveals themself through words rather than premeditated actions. Contrast How Did You Know? I Didn't. See also Spotting the Thread, Pulling the Thread, and Conviction by Contradiction.
Examples:
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Anime & Manga
- Bloody Monday:
- Defied in one case. Fujimaru Takagi hacks an encrypted memory chip that belongs to his father, a high-ranking agent of the Public Security Intelligence Agency's Third-I investigative group, and discovers it contains video of what appears to be a gruesome viral outbreak in Russia known as the Christmas Massacre. After reviewing the footage, Fujimaru begins to (correctly) suspect that a woman (seemingly the perpetrator) who briefly appeared in the video is currently posing as the new teacher at his high school, Maya Orihara. Due to the Russian Orthodox Church using the Julian calendar, though, Christmas in Russia is actually celebrated on January 7th on the internationally accepted Gregorian calendar. Maya knows it will appear suspicious if she immediately gives a prepared alibi for what should be an unremarkable date that passed several months ago, so when asked what she was doing that day, she instead pretends she's forgotten and fakes looking through her agenda to refresh her memory.
- Fujimaru eventually deduces that the rumored Mole within Third-I is Sayuri Hosho, who had earlier been shot in the chest at contact range but "miraculously" survived due to having a bulletproof vest on and instead only got knocked out for a bit. As Fujimaru explains, Sayuri was shot by Jack Daemon, a Psycho for Hire who openly enjoyed killing people, with his file even stating he's a former SWAT member who was dismissed due to needlessly increasing the body count on missions. But while all of his other kills had been shot in the head, he only shot Sayuri in the chest, even though a Professional Killer like him would've expected a Third-I agent to be wearing a bulletproof vest. Not only that, but he didn't even check to make sure his supposed enemy really was dead despite having ample time to do so. The only explanation is that he and Sayuri were working together and planned on having the latter be shot in a non-lethal manner to hide that the two are allies.
- Third-I finds itself in a race against time looking for a neutron bomb in Tokyo that a terrorist cult intends to detonate to initiate their "Bloody Monday" plot, which Third-I figures will occur in a few days at midnight on Sunday. Russia, who had the bomb stolen from them by the terrorists and had already fallen victim to a similar attack from the cult, sends Agent Sasha Kabalevsky to help with the search, and she quickly figures out the bomb's coordinates from Third-I's evidence. However, Russia does not trust the Japanese government and tells Third-I that if the bomb is not recovered by 11pm on Thursday, Russia will take matters into their own hands using methods Third-I will likely disapprove of (namely, by blowing up the entire building that the bomb's located in to prevent detonation). Once Thursday rolls around, one of Third-I's allies notes how strange it is that Russia won't wait any later than 11pm that night to stop an attack that supposedly won't take place for another three days, especially since a tip-off from a mercenary hired by the cult also said to get out of the city Thursday morning. Then it turns out "Bloody Monday" actually falls on the equivalent of a Monday on the ancient Babylonian calendar used by the cult; on the Gregorian calendar, however, it instead coincides with Friday, meaning there's only hours left until the neutron bomb detonates at midnight.
Fan Works
- Scarlet Lady: In the comic's version of "Stormy Weather," shortly after getting akumatized over losing to Mireille in the weather girl contest, the titular akuma demands that a balloon seller explain why he only has merchandise celebrating Mireille's victory and not hers when Mireille had only just been declared the winner. After he nervously confesses all the sellers were instructed to only make Mireille merchandise, Stormy Weather connects the dots and figures out the contest was rigged against her.
Film — Animated
- Barbie as the Island Princess: Queen Ariana poisons her daughter Princess Luciana's wedding cake as part of a plan to both get revenge against her prospective in-laws for a past slight and take over their kingdom. Ro, who Speaks Fluent Animal, learns about this scheme thanks to some nearby birds who witnessed it and warns all the wedding guests before they eat any. When Ariana denies her crime, Ro challenges her to have some cake herself to prove her innocence. Ariana then suggests that Ro might've poisoned the cake to frame her, only for Luciana to speak up and tell the crowd that her mother had earlier inexplicably told her not to eat anything on her wedding day. Realizing she can't talk her way out of this one, Queen Ariana makes a run for it.
Film — Live-Action
- Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: Unlike the original film, it's heavily implied that Willy Wonka either orchestrated the horrible fates of the first four children on the tour of his factory or, at the very least, correctly predicted what the kids would do and didn't take any action to stop it. For example, the Oompa-Loompas have intricately choreographed and well-rehearsed song and dance numbers for each child and what happened to them, and while Wonka tries to pass it off as simple improvisation, it's clear that he's lying (as Mr. Salt lampshades, "I must say—that all seemed rather rehearsed"). In another example, Wonka has giant and elaborate paintings of Mr. and Mrs. Salt ready to toss down the garbage chute when Spoiled Brat Veruca is thrown into it—how could he have possibly known they'd be needed in that room at that time unless he was planning it?
Literature
- A Stock Puzzle has a couple go on vacation together, only for the wife to die during the trip and the husband to return alone. Soon afterwards, the police arrest him for his wife's murder. How did they know? The man bought a round-trip ticket for himself but a one-way ticket for his wife, meaning he was certain he'd return without her.
- One Encyclopedia Brown mystery has his father ask for help with a case of vandalism. The rudder of a boat was smashed just before a boat race was to take place. Suspicion falls on the rivals of the boat's owner, but Encyclopedia realizes that the boat's owner smashed the rudder himself. How? The owner's wife was to join him in the race, but she got her hair done before the race was postponed. She wouldn't have done that if the race were going ahead because the wind would have ruined her hairdo.
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Harry, Ron, and Hermione go visit Xenophilius Lovegood during Christmas break, hoping to also see Luna while they're there. When they ask where their friend is, Xenophilius claims that she's out fishing for plimpies and will be back in a short while. Though the three initially believe him, they eventually realize that Xenophilius doesn't actually expect Luna to be home any time soon when they see he only set a tray for four people (that and Luna's bed doesn't look like it's been slept in recently, strongly indicating she hasn't been home at all).
- Subverted in Thucydides's History of the Peloponnesian War. The Athenian admiral Phrynichus, in order to save himself from being executed for espionagenote , leaked info to the Spartans about how the Athenian fleet at Samos was undefended, then rushed to fortify Samos. When Alcibiades once again told the Athenians of the leak, Phrynichus argued that if he did intend to aid the Spartans, why would he hinder them by fortifying their target? Surprisingly, the Athenian leaders believed Phrynichus's argument and dismissed the charges against him.
- The Seven Per Cent Solution by Nicholas Meyer has Doctor Watson arrange with Professor Moriarty to travel to Vienna. Counting on Holmes to pursue him, Watson aims to have Holmes meet Sigmund Freud, who has some success in treating cocaine addiction. Verily, Holmes does tail Moriarty to Vienna, and thence to Freud's home office, where he immediately recognizes the set-up. "So, Iscariot, you've delivered me to my nemeses," he says to Watson, noting that his colleague packed exactly the right amount for a trip to Vienna; no shortfall, no surplus. Holmes will later apologize for calling his comrade a turncoat.
- In Two-Minute Mysteries, a violin teacher has planned to have one of his prize students debut at a concert but doesn't decide which until shortly before the start. Soon thereafter, the chosen student turns up dead. Haledjian deduces that the other student was the killer because he had rosined his bow. Readers have noted that this doesn't actually work as an explanation—since both students had an equal chance of being selected, they'd naturally have to be ready to go on at a moment's notice.
Live-Action TV
- Castle: A group of prep school kids fall suspect when one of their own is found shot to death. It's quickly revealed that they had been shooting with a gun that belonged to one of them, something that they'd done several times before. Castle points out to Beckett that if, as the kids claim, they'd pointed the gun empty at each other and pretended to shoot one another dozens of times in the past, then the only reason to film themselves doing so that night is if someone knew something was going to happen and wanted a record of it.
- Columbo: In "Candidate For a Crime," senatorial candidate Nelson Hayward murders his campaign manager Harry Stone. His plan involved contriving a scenario where Harry would disguise himself as Hayward using his clothes, all so he could make it look like a case of mistaken identity. One of the many things that tips off Columbo throughout the episode is that Hayward receives a new jacket shortly after the murder, identical to the one that is now riddled with bullet holes and soaked in blood, seemingly intended as a replacement. Except it's a designer jacket, made to order, and it takes weeks to make. So how did Hayward know to order a new one ahead of time?
- Midsomer Murders: In a season 2 episode, while investigating the Victim of the Week's murder, Barnaby learns that the Asshole Victim in question had a rough relationship with his stepdaughter, who'd been hoping to move to New York for a while to get away from him but lacked the funds. Later into the investigation, the stepdaughter announces she'll be going to Milan instead and that her flight's tomorrow. Barnaby soon realizes that she must be the culprit: she wouldn't suddenly change her longstanding plans to move to the States unless she was trying to leave the UK to avoid being arrested and needed somewhere that wouldn't require her to go through the lengthy process of arranging visas.
- That's So Raven: In "Rae of Sunshine," right before the local Bayside Sunshine Girls set off on their camping trip, a sudden downpour forces them to cancel their plans and stay at Raven's house instead. Mrs. Valentine, the chaperone for the trip, immediately prepares to go pick her husband up for an "impromptu" trip to Las Vegas, reasoning that since the van is rented for the entire weekend, she might as well use it if the girls can't. Raven sternly asks Mrs. Valentine if she knew it would rain and planned all this, which the woman denies... right before pulling an umbrella from her bag.
- Veronica Mars: Veronica eventually puts together that Cassidy Casablancas is the bus bomber because of some of this. Cassidy has enjoyed massive success with his (illegal) real estate company, Phoenix Land Trust. While, on the surface, this may just be showing that Cassidy is a Teen Genius, she figures out that Cassidy was molested by Woody Goodman because Cassidy made his money by betting big against incorporation. To do this, she deduces that he must've known it would fail, which means that he had to be the voice edited out of the tape accusing Woody of child molestation, and the person who blackmailed him into "killing" incorporation. He was able to bet so readily on the failure of incorporation because he knew he had the leverage to get Woody to force it to fail.
Video Games
- Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney: In "Turnabout Samurai," during the trial against Will Powers, producer Dee Vasquez, the real culprit, testifies that she and the rest of the cast and crew headed to Studio One to do some rehearsing when they came across Jack Hammer's body. She then states that when the police came in to investigate, she went back to the trailer to get her script and notes. It is pointed out that it'd be odd for her to not bring her script with her to the rehearsal unless she knew beforehand there wouldn't be one due to the victim's body being discovered. Dee Vasquez tries to explain herself, claiming that she knew there wouldn't be a rehearsal due to Jack Hammer's injury from the morning stunt run-through. However, that only makes things more problematic for her since it was actually Will Powers who was injured.
Web Video
- 7-Second Riddles:
- One riddle concerns a girl who was found murdered when her family woke up the next morning. It's then revealed that the mother was the one who killed her; the clue is that she was only setting 3 plates at the table, just enough for her, her husband, and her son. If she hadn't known her daughter was dead, she would've set an extra plate for her.
- A husband and wife made a Suicide Pact and agreed to jump off a building together, only for them both to survive: the wife didn't jump in the end while the husband brought a parachute. One of them is revealed to have betrayed the other for insurance money, and the riddle involves determining which one it is. Since the husband obviously planned his survival ahead of time by secretly bringing a parachute to the top of the building, he's clearly the culprit.
Western Animation
- Family Guy:
- Played With in "Stewie Kills Lois": Peter becomes the prime suspect in Lois's death after he nonchalantly tells his friends that on the night of her murder, he took out a big life insurance policy on her right after a huge fight erupted between them in which he told her that he wished she was dead. Of course, as the episode title states, Stewie is the actual culprit. Fortunately, Lois turns out to be alive and shows up at Peter's trial to exonerate him.
- Near the end of the "And Then There Were Fewer" ninth season premier, as the police prepare to arrest Tom Tucker for the previous night's murders, Lois realizes that Diane Simmons is the real killer and had set everything up to frame Tom. Diane is wearing a shirt her mother made for her first solo newscast, something she wouldn't have packed in her luggage unless she knew that Tom would no longer be her coworker by the time they all went home.
- The Magic School Bus: "Sees Stars" has the class decide on buying a star from the Star Shopping Network and naming it after Dorothy Ann for her birthday. They eventually settle on the Red Giant, partly because the seller said he'd take fifty cents off the price if someone buys it in the next fifty seconds. Soon after they complete their purchase, though, the Red Giant blows up. The class deduces that the seller must have sold the star to them extra cheap because he knew it would explode soon and later calls in to the show to confront him over this (among other things).
