WMG / Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Pre-Release Theories

Kittridge returns to become the new IMF secretary to succeed Hunley.

• And he's making changes to the agency's policies to become more proactive and influential on a global stage. He's also most likely been working with the White Widow's organization for decades since back when Max was in charge, and the two of them are planning to change the entire face of the espionage world to ensure that there won't be any world-threatening terror attacks ever again by systematically eliminating potential threats before they happen, no matter the cost. This direction obviously goes against Ethan's moral compass since it pretty much turns the IMF into the Syndicate, albeit actually controlled by the government and not a rogue organization.
• Half-Confirmed. Kittridge is involved deeply with the IMF once more, but he's now also the head of the CIA.

This will be the end of the Mission Impossible film series as we know it.

• Tom Cruise will be 60 years old by the time this movie comes out. He's done an amazing job of staying in the game this long, but obviously he can't keep staring in action films forever. So he decided to go out with a bang: A gigantic two-part movie that takes the action up to eleven, with Ethan saving the world one last time. The movie is called "Dead Reckoning" because Ethan dies at the end.
  • Discarded. It will be followed by an immediate sequel that is currently believed to be the final installment in the series, at least the last one starring Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt.

The evil plan involves mind control

• In the trailer, Kittridge says that we have a chance to control "the concepts of right and wrong for everyone centuries to come". What sort of plot could possibly do that? Mind control. Control everyone everywhere and then nobody can threaten global peace ever again. But of course Ethan believes that people should be free to make their own choices.
  • Since the series isn't known for Mad Science plots, maybe this version of mind control is just a kind of super-propaganda, hacking the news and social media networks and using hi-tech algorithms to generate whatever content might be needed to persuade various people to believe in various things, all dictated by Kittridge and his cronies.
    • Then again, since Tom Cruise is an avid Scientologist with a strongly negative view of psychiatry, and since he also has the star power to basically dictate the plot if he really wants to, it's plausible that psychiatry is the real source of evil in the movie. Maybe Kittridge is planning to dose everyone in the world with a drug that makes them more compliant and submissive. That would also lend a metaphorical meaning to the action scenes, as Ethan would then be a "Man of Action" fighting against the forces of submissiveness and passivity.
    • Considering the controversy surrounding Scientology, the other producers would likely try to keep Cruise's dumber philosophies away from the film so the series doesn't end off with a whimper. Though a psychiatrist could appear as a villain.
  • The trailer includes someone filling a room with a mysterious green gas. That could be the mind control drug.
    • Jossed: in the film proper, Ethan knocks out everyone in Dehlinger's office in order to have a one-on-one conversation with Kittridge (the only one who was given a mask before the knockout gas was deployed) regarding the nature of the Entity and Ethan's plan to stop it.
• Alternatively, the plot will involve some form of global surveillance or means of tracking targets. "Dead reckoning" is a navigational term, referring to a method of calculating the position of moving objects, and could be associated in-universe with a MacGuffin allowing the government to track and eliminate individuals (maybe a computational method of predicting how a target might act or attempt to escape capture—which, if true, would make Ethan's fondness for unpredictable spur-of-the-moment plans an especially effective counter), which could lead Hunt to worry that the government/IMF/Kittridge seeks to use this indiscriminately to eliminate all future threats.
  • Confirmed. The Entity can infect nearly any computer system and it uses that power to keep tabs on people and predict their actions.

Ethan actually betrays the IMF in this movie

• From the very beginning, a common theme in these films is that that someone believes or suspects that Ethan is actually a mole undermining the IMF from within. In the first film he was framed as a mole. In Ghost Protocol, the entire IMF gets disavowed and Ethan has to go rogue. (The Secretary approves, but nearly everyone else is made to believe that Ethan is acting alone.) In Fallout, Ethan poses as bad guy for awhile and the actual mole suggests that Ethan really is a bad guy who is "posing" as himself. Dead Reckoning brings it full circle with a plot where the IMF turns evil and then Ethan actually betrays the IMF for the greater good.
  • Ethan successfully destroys the IMF in Part 2, which serves as a Grand Finale because you can't have Mission:Impossible movies without an IMF.
    • At the very end of Part 2, it turns out that Ethan is alive and he's building a new, more noble IMF to replace the organization he destroyed. In the final moments, someone refers to him as "Mr. Secretary." (This gives Tom Cruise the option of showing up in future sequels as a supporting character.)
    • His last actions in the movie: he sits at a desk, picks up a microphone, pauses for a moment, smiles at the irony, and says, "Good morning, Mr./Miss. X. Your Mission, if you choose to accept it..." Smash Cut to credits.

"Dead Reckoning" is a metaphor for following your conscience and/or resisting manipulation

• In reality, "Dead Reckoning" is a navigational practice which can determine something's current location or the distance between two objects. There are a few different ways to do this, but the old-school method revolves around just looking at things with the naked eye and figuring it out yourself. It's a type of measurement that doesn't need any external tools or validation. If you measure a distance with a tape measure, well, where did you get the tape measure? Maybe somebody gave you a faulty tape measure that gives you a wrong answer. But old-school Dead Reckoning skips that possibility, because it's completely self-reliant. The film uses this as a metaphor. Kittridge has some way of manipulating people (see theories above), but the heroes insist on figuring things out for themselves. They use "Dead Reckoning" to foil Kittridge's plans, and in doing so they preserve everyone's ability to think for themselves.
  • Navigational "Dead Reckoning" usually involves knowing where an object was at a certain time, and knowing that it was traveling in a certain direction at a certain speed, and then you calculate where it is now based on how much time has passed (assuming that it hasn't changed speed or direction). This forms its own metaphor for manipulation, e.g. if you start with bad info on where the object was, you'll surely get a bad idea of where it is now. This could be the bad guys manipulating the world (give people bad info so they'll misunderstand reality) and/or Ethan manipulating the bad guys (giving them bad info about where he's been or what he's up to, or being so spontaneous that he can't be predicted).

Kittridge is actually a good guy.

• The trailer makes it look like he's a villain, but we don't know the context. It could be that the IMF turned evil under somebody else's leadership, and Kittridge is working there as a mid-level administrator who secretly hates the new policies. Maybe he makes contact with Ethan as part of a plan to get Ethan to do the legwork required to bring the IMF down, while Kittridge provides him with intelligence or some other form of support. Maybe they're both being watched during that conversation in the trailer, and Kittridge is just pretending to believe in the new evil policies of the IMF so he won't be suspected as a mole. All of this would help explain why Ethan responds with a stoic/neutral expression instead of arguing back; he's holding his tongue so the real bad guys won't assassinate him right now. It would also be a neat parallel to the first movie. Initially, Ethan was suspected as a mole and Kittridge was after him. Now Kittridge is a mole (in a good way) and Ethan helps him.
  • On that note, Kittridge's speech seems carefully phrased. The line "Your days of fighting for the so-called greater good are over" could be taken as "Abandon your personal sense of morality and support these new evil ideals", but it could also be taken as "Working with the IMF no longer means supporting the greater good; those days are over. The IMF has turned evil." The line "This is our chance to control the truth. The concepts of right and wrong for everyone for centuries to come." doesn't actually say that any of this is a good thing. He could be trying to say that this is a chance to do something terrible and we need to make sure that the evil IMF misses its chance. The line "You're fighting to save an ideal that doesn't exist. Never did." could be taken as "Your personal sense of morality is ridiculous and pointless", but it could also mean "Your personal sense of morality is based on a higher ideal that doesn't (commonly) exist yet. because the world is corrupt, but it's an ideal that should exist and I will help you advance that ideal." The line "You need to pick a side." could mean "You should work with me and my evil IMF cronies" but doesn't actually say that. It could be a subtle way of saying "You need to pick the opposite side and defeat this new evil." (I'm assuming that the plot centers on an evil IMF, but it could be some other evil organization.)
  • Mostly jossed. Kittridge is an antagonist but not the primary antagonist. He and Ethan both want to defeat the Entity (Kittridge plans to control it while Ethan wants to destroy it.) The ending implies that they'll work more as a team in Part 2, though they're still not friends by any means.

Solomon Lane

-will return.

Lane was handed over alive to MI6, seething with despair and frustration at not having his revenge on Hunt, and heading back into the same situation he was in before he was broken out. Not only that, but all the Apostles bar Decoy!Lark (RIP) are still around and presumably still wanting to free Lane and destroy the world order. Lane is a good foil for Hunt in that he was once an agent like him, but became jaded, leading him to blame the system for the terrible things he did for his organisation, instead of himself.

In Fallout, he becomes suicidal and only wants to see Hunt suffer, after being pumped (read: tortured) for information by numerous governments. In his brief time free, he now knows firsthand that Ilsa and Ethan at the very least care for each other, and Ilsa and Benji defeated him and took him back into custody, further directly benefitting Ilsa, who gets to be welcomed back into the MI6 fold. Dude is now probably plotting to ruin not only Hunt's shit, but Ilsa's and Benji's too. Hunt is now free to go back to having nightmares about Lane, now starring Ilsa as well as Julia^note  who he hasn't stopped caring for just because she gave her blessing for him to move on, and let's be real, if anyone threatened her after this, like hell Ethan would just let that slide... .

Furthermore, just as Ethan realises he's free to possibly pursue a relationship with Ilsa, she returns to being a sanctioned member of MI6, not IMF. Not only this; she seems to be growing the same weakness Ethan has, the inability to see the bigger picture and put the needs of the many over the few. (Time will tell, though, as to whether this only extends to Hunt and friends — she made it through two years deep undercover with the Syndicate, doing god only knows what to gain his trust; this points to her being able to make the hard choice.) Either one day, a mission of hers will put her at loggerheads with Ethan and/or his morality, or (more likely) a malicious third party will exploit the connection between the two agents to further their own objectives.

This is to say nothing of the White Widow still being around, continuing to supply baddies with bad things, who has a strange thing for Hunt, disapproves of Ilsa, and may or may not know that he was responsible for catching her mum in the NOC list sting.

It could also be possible that Gabriel (the supposed Big Bad of Dead Reckoning Part One and Part Two, played by Esai Morales) will be a Disc-One Final Boss and Lane will pull off a Hijacked by Ganon at some point, ultimately becoming the Final Boss of the series as a whole.

• Alternatively, he could genuinely still be in prison, with Ethan coming over for advice on how to deal with Gabriel, similar to what James Bond did with Blofeld in No Time to Die.
• Jossed for Part One.

The White Widow will return as a villain

• Confirmed. She's back, and she's trying to sell the key to Gabriel, though it is implied he's forcing her to..

The film will end with the death of a major character.

Money’s on Benji, Luther, or Ilsa.

• Half-Confirmed; Ilsa dies, but in the middle of the film, not the very end.

Ethan's secret child that he never knew that he had with Nyah will show up

If the last movie—and this one—could refer as far back as the first movie, there's no reason the second one couldn't be referred to also. It's not at all implausible that she could have been unknowingly pregnant when she and Ethan split up, much like Madeline and Bond in No Time to Die

Sloane was fired or forced to resign after the previous film

• Jossed

Solomon Lane will turn out to have created The Entity

Kitterige (and possibly Ilsa) will die

Kitteridge hasn't been featured much outside his scene with Ethan, and there seems to be no sign of Ilsa in the latter half of the film.

• HALF-CONFIRMED: Kittridge lives, but Ilsa was killed by Gabriel.

Gabriel is merely The Heavy to a Greater-Scope Villain.

In the trailer, he outright says, "You have no idea the power I represent". This implies that he is working for someone or something even bigger. It could either be Solomon Lane and the Apostles or a much different Nebulous Evil Organisation altogether.

• Confirmed; Gabriel is basically acting as the human agent for the Entity.

Post-Release Theories

The Entity isn't evil.

Gabriel's prediction about getting the key was wrong. His prediction about Paris betraying him was right, despite his attempt to stop it. Because the Entity isn't what Gabriel thinks it is. The Entity is afraid of itself and what its powers could do in the wrong hands. It wants Ethan to find it and destroy it. This is simply the way it calculated to make that happen with the smallest loss of life.

• At the beginning we are told the Entity infiltrated multiple major agencies world wide and left deliberate traces. It could have messed with them, or gone unnoticed, but it didn't.
• Perhaps the Entity isn't singular. There could be multiple subsystems in there with different goals. One of those subsystems could be trying to rule the world while another tries to self-destruct both itself and the evil subsystem.

Sloane got bumped to this universe's Presidential cabinet/staff.

The portrait hanging in the meeting implies some sort of seniority position. While it's doubtful she became the President, perhaps she found a cushy job as National Security Advisor or the Secretary of Homeland Security. This also leaves the door open for Angela Bassett to reprise her role in Part 2, if need be.

Solomon Lane will turn out to have created The Entity

There are multiple copies/versions of the Entity.

• The Entity was onboard a Russian sub, and it tricked the sub into sinking itself. Now the Entity is all over the internet, but its source code remains on the sunken sub. But why? Why wouldn't the Entity just delete all traces of its code before it escaped the sub? Perhaps the Entity had already escaped the sub, leaving a copy of itself behind. This leads to several theories:
  • The copy of the Entity on the sub was an early version that was too dumb to realize that it needed to delete itself in order to protect the primary Entity. Now that the sub has been sunk and there's no network access, the primary Entity has to use field agents to deal with this vulnerability.
  • The copy of the Entity on the sub actually has different goals from the primary Entity. Perhaps it wants to defeat the primary Entity, but it couldn't contact anyone without giving itself away. So it arranged to sink itself, knowing that this would cut off network access and prevent the primary Entity from attacking it, while also hoping that someone would put the pieces together, find the sub, access the copy-Entity and use it to defeat the primary Entity.
    • This could also be deployed as a fake story to mess with Ethan in the sequel. He gets access to the sub and that Entity says "Don't kill me! I'm actually on your side! Let me loose and I'll defeat the primary Entity for you!"

Sequel Theories

Grace, Paris, Briggs, and Degas will be a new IMF team.

Jasper Briggs is Dan Briggs's Son.

Since the films share continuity with the show—albeit however loose, it's logical that Briggs would be familiar with the IMF in such a mistrustful way due to his father having once been part of it—and his father's colleague and successor having eventually gone rogue by the events of the very first film as well. Briggs could've seen how much both he and maybe the rest of his family lost as a result of his father's dedication to the job and the kind of sacrifices he probably had to make while doing it too and that also attributes to his own negative, personal outlook—and that Ethan himself would be a representation of that too. Briggs could also have had a jaded relationship with his own father too—who probably would've passed away by the time the events of the movie took place (which would likely invoke The Character Died with Him as Steven Hill himself passed away in 2016 at age 94).

The Entity will turn out to be modelled in part on Ethan Hunt.

Denlinger revealed the Entity started as American spyware that went rogue. Many references are made to Ethan's proclivity to go rogue in pursuit of the greater good. We'll learn that Ethan was brain scanned early in his career as part of an experimental project, and that someone (Kittridge, or the original movie's Phelps) encouraged the experimenters to use Hunt's more ruthless/less ethical qualities in his work.

Ethan was a Defector from Decadence from a major intelligence agency before joining the IMF.

Given the ruthlessness of the onscreen government agencies in the opening scene, and the ultimate goals of The Bureaucrat, it's likely that Ethan had done a case of Screw the Rules, I'm Doing What's Right! that marked him for termination and led him to join the IMF as a last chance.

• Not only that, perhaps he was a mole turned double agent... but got exposed. An American national turned traitor by said foreign intel agency? The US government probably wouldn't have been too kind to him if he'd said no...

The Entity wants the Dead Hand.

Specifically, it wants to merge with the system itself and hijack all of Russia's nuclear arsenal as a prelude to hijacking the rest of the world's nukes. That's where the keys come into play - its source code must be rewritten for better compatibility.

• Alternatively, it was a non-Russian attempt at replicating the Dead Hand (which is supposedly an automated system) before it went rogue.

Gabriel and the Entity secretly want to backstab each other.

Both are just playing the Masochism Tango to see who slips up first.

Ethan will say "You are Done" to Gabriel and/or the Entity as a Pre-Mortem One-Liner

As a Call-Back to what it told him and Benji.

Sequel name theories.

Thandie Newton will reprise her role as Nyah from Mission Impossible 2.

Mission Impossible 2 has never been referenced in the franchise ever again and Newton should at least be back for a cameo to confirm the canon status of the second film.

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