Didn't See That Coming
"Mentsch tracht, Gott lacht." ("Man plans, God laughs.")Ah, nothing denotes how Crazy-Prepared The Chessmaster is like the good old Gambit Pileup. Truly, there is nothing these twelfth-level omni-geniuses have not contemplated in their equations and planned for with contingencies B through Z42t. Then something, or someone, happens. Not just something that the Chessmaster didn't know about, but something that he didn't know he didn't know. In fact, there was no way he could have known that he didn't know this. Thus the brilliant plan goes to pieces, with a deadpan "I Didn't See That Coming" once the dust settles. Less Stoic fellows may go Oh Crap! or into Villainous Breakdown, though usually it's a Spanner in the Works that causes that reaction. Problems tend to come in five varieties, of which varieties 3, 4, and 5 qualify for this trope:
— A Yiddish proverb
- Known Knowns: There are the known dangers, these you deal with directly: My opponent has access to laser blasters — I need Deflector Shields before I attack.
- Known Unknowns: These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possible outcomes: The enemy has his forces deployed elsewhere when you are Storming the Castle, so you need one plan for what to do if these forces do not return in time (to take full advantage), and you need another plan for what to do if these forces do return in time (to avoid getting trapped in a pincer). Someone who is especially good at this kind is probably Crazy-Prepared or a master of Xanatos Speed Chess.
- Unknown Unknowns: Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a Genre Shift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of the masquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or The Mafia not expecting Psychic Powers. Acts of God and Outside Context Villains tend to fit in here, unless characters are aware that they are a Cosmic Plaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
- Unknown Knowns: It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given person, event, or variable is present... but doesn't see how it could possibly impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to dismiss it or mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot, and otherwise ignore the sword overhead while whittling at the rope holding it there. In Mystery Fiction, these people are the suspects and facts that are quickly discarded in favor of the high-profile suspects. However, add up all the background chatter and the motivations for why it was the butler becomes incredibly obvious. See The Dog Bites Back and Evil Cannot Comprehend Good
- False Assumptions: Even the most diabolical scheme can be doomed before it even starts if it's built on faulty information. That ridiculously circuitous plan to steal the MacGuffin from the safe deposit box by sneaking into the bank disguised as security guards? The only thing The Hero's grandfather hid there was some old family memorabilia; the MacGuffin is hidden somewhere else entirely (if it even exists).
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Anime and Manga
- Fate/Zero, Unknown Unknowns example: Rider was thinking he could defeat Gilgamesh with his Ionian Hetairoi if he was only faced with Gate of Babylon. He did NOT expect to be faced with Ea, Gilgamesh´s own sword capable of destroying the world and his entire army with it in a single swing.
- Also, Kayneth is ruined by a series of these:
- The first is a False Assumption: he had assumed that the other masters would have acted as mages and, in an attack on his stronghold in the higher roofs of the Hyatt Hotel, would have had to deal with his enormous preparations. Here comes Kiritsugu, who just blows up the whole hotel with explosives. Kayneth survives, but the explosion and the demolition destroy all of his defensive measures and almost all of his Mystic Codes;
- In revenge for Kiritsugu's attack, Kayneth attacks him in the Einzbern Castle and runs head first in another False Assumption and an Unknown Unknown. The False Assumption is that his last Mystic Code could easily defend him from mundane weapons, but while Volumen Hydragyum can easily repel the pellets from Claymore Mines and the fire of a Calico M950 it has to concentrate to defend from the point blank fire of a Thompson Contender chambered for .30-06 rounds, and he survived with a wound only because the Contender is single shot. The Unknown Unknown happens when Kiritsugu returns with the Contender: this time Kayneth concentrate his defense and reinforces it with prana, not knowing it was exactly what Kiritsugu needed for his Origin bullet to completely and irreversibly destroy Kayneth's ability to use magic, nearly killing him through the sheer pain and leaving him paraplegic as a side effect;
- After surviving Kiritsugu thanks to Lancer, Kayneth runs into an Unknown Known: his fiancee Sola-Ui is madly in love with Lancer, and tortures poor Kayneth to get the Command Seals. He could have avoided the torture and having to give up the Seals by calling Lancer with a Command Seal, but his False Assumption that Lancer was willing to betray him prevented him from it. These would both fall under Unknown Known errors if he'd bothered to read up on the myths regarding his own servant, Diarmuid Ua Duibhne. Sola-Ui falls prey to Lancer's cursed beauty mark, as his future queen did in the myth. And she forced him to betray his lord with magic.
- After much meddling, Kayneth is seemingly having some luck. Sure, he had to force Lancer to suicide and give up any role in the War, but he managed to have Kiritsugu force himself to not harm him first... And False Assumption and Unknown Unknown hit again in the form of Maya Hisau, Kiritsugu's assistant, who, before Kiritsugu signed the magical contract, had been ordered to kill Kayneth and Sola-Ui as soon as Lancer killed himself. To rub salt into the wound, Kayneth is just mortally and painfully wounded, and when he begs Kiritsugu to finish him he's told that he can't either finish him or tell Maya or Saber to do it due the oath (thankfully Saber has some pity and kills him on her own).
- Also, Kayneth is ruined by a series of these:
- Running into one of these is how Light of Death Note finally lost.
- Specifically a Type 4. It occurred to him his plan might have been anticipated, but underestimated his opponent's capacity to do so.
- Actually Type 3: Shidou was a greater Spanner in the Works than anyone else, and there was no way Light could have foresaw the damage he did.
- Hell, come to think of it, it's what did L in, as well. Being the world's greatest detective can only take you so far if your nemesis has a god on his side.
- Specifically a Type 4. It occurred to him his plan might have been anticipated, but underestimated his opponent's capacity to do so.
- Kyon of Haruhi Suzumiya gets a note asking him to meet in the classroom after school. He's pretty sure it isn't any of the SOS members, but he thinks a little about how he'll respond to each of them, if it is one of them after all. He knows that he does not know who it is. However, it was not possible for him to know that Ryoko Asakura was actually an alien waiting there to murder him. He got hit with Didn't See That Coming, and it was not fun. At least, not for him — for the audience, it was freaking awesome.
- Quattro, the resident Smug Snake from Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha Striker S encounters a tiny flaw that completely undoes her whole plan when she overlooks a few critical facts. First, that Nanoha is a mage that specializes in blowing stuff up. Second, that Nanoha is using a special booster system that makes her capable of blowing up even more stuff. And finally, that Nanoha was using area search magic to look for the cyborg the entire time she was fighting against her adopted daughter, per Quattro's plans. On top of all that, somehow Quattro tends to overlook an even more critical fact regarding the way Nanoha treats her friends and loved ones. While being ignorant of the third was a reasonable possibility, there is absolutely no excuse for the first two, not to mention Nanoha's tendency to befriend people. The end result... Oh Crap!!
- Of course, Quattro did see it coming in the end. She was just too late to do anything about it.
- On a wider scale, Jail and the cyborgs got blindsided completely by Section 6' available firepower, due to careful management of their Power Limiters hiding what they were really capable of.
- Code Geass . All the time, courtesy of the universe's violent hatred of Lelouch. Seriously, the only plan to go off without a hitch was Zero Requiem, which ends with suicide.
- Alucard in Hellsing is finally finished off when the Major gets him to weaken himself by unleashing his familiars, become injured by fighting a newly vampirised Walter, then try to restore himself by reabsorbing his familiars and all of the blood in the devastated London. The snag for Alucard comes when the Major has Schrodinger commit suicide and be absorbed by Alucard; Schrodinger's nature means that he ceases to exist if he cannot identify himself. Being absorbed by Alucard and melded with the souls of his familiars makes him unable to identify himself, causing him to cease to exist, and taking Alucard with him.
- In One Piece, the World Government captured Ace and imprisoned him, prompting Luffy to break in to get him out. Normally, one pirate single-handedly invading their fortress jail to break someone out under maximum security would be an easy matter to deal with. Unfortunately Luffy ultimately set all their prisoners free, recruited as many as he could into fighting the World Government with the surprise aid of Buggy the Clown, Mr. 3, Mr. 2 Bon Kurei, and two ex-members of the Seven Warlords of the Sea. To top it off, a current Warlord, Blackbeard, turned on them for unknown reasons while everyone else was preparing for all-out war with Whitebeard. And wouldn't you just know it, numerous prisoners that Luffy recruited have the exact powers needed for the group to succeed. Unfortunately, things don't go as planned. Things don't go as planned at all.
- A better example is when Luffy goes for a rematch with Crocodile, and swallows a huge barrel of water to become a living water balloon. Crocodile is more than a bit surprised by this, though he recovers quickly.
- Enel had the same problem but worse. At least Crocodile knew about his own limits, and had a fall back plan. Luffy not only bypassed Enel's invincibility, but then completely ignored just about every attack Enel tried to use in retaliation. And then the kicker was that there is no rubber in the sky islands. Enel not only didn't see Luffy coming, but he didn't know his main weakness even existed
- Luffy's "execution" (actually an attempted murder) in Loguetown is prevented when the executioner is struck by a bolt of lightning. Luffy's flabbergasted allies can only conclude it was Divine Intervention. However, it's really a type 4 all around, maybe even an Idiot Ball moment. Why? They were atop a tall tower, the executioner wielding a metal sword, while thunder was rumbling in the background. Although it is well implied that it wasn't natural lightning that struck.
- Zoro begs Dracule Mihawk to train him so that he can surpass and defeat...well...Dracule Mihawk. He's actually trying to get stronger for the sake of the Straw Hats, but, he's not forgetting his own goal in the process. Mihawk agrees to it, knowing that he's helping to create the one swordsman he believes can defeat him. Simply because Zoro is willing to throw away his pride for the Straw Hats.
- When the Straw Hats enter the New World, Smoker falls victim to this in his attempt to ambush them. He knows that a New World log pose points to three possible islands, and he's Genre Savvy enough to know Luffy would pick the most dangerous of the three options. So he sets anchor by the most dangerous of the first three islands in the New World. What doesn't occur to him is that Luffy would instead go to Punk Hazard, an island that isn't even on the log pose.
- Sabo. No one, not the Straw Hats, not Doflamingo, not even the audience saw him coming, making him a classic example of a Spanner in the Works. Makes you wonder what else the Revolutionary Army has in store for the rest of the series.
- The Dressrosa arc of the story is basically a long chain of these on all sides, starting with Doflamingo changing the whole world's newspapers just to fool Law. Once the Straw Hats start their attack properly it gets to the point where somebody gets this every two chapters or so, culminating with Usopp somehow startling Sugar into fainting, and Doflamingo surviving having his head chopped off.
- Doflamingo assigns a bounty of 500,000,000 Beri on "God" Usopp, which is even higher than the World Government's bounty on Luffy.
- In Princess Tutu, Rue pulling a Heroic Sacrifice and saving Mytho from The Corruption through The Power of Love blindsides Drosselmeyer so utterly that he spends the next five seconds gaping dumbfoundedly before finally going, "...What." He does recover his plans rather quickly though -- just on a different rail.
- In Mahou Sensei Negima!, a type 3 screws up Kurt Godel's plan to make Negi an ally, as he was totally unaware that Negi had a source of information that that Kurt couldn't have possibly have anticipated.
- Chapter 273 is basically just Kurt's whole Gambit falling to pieces around him. First he reveals himself as a powerful Shinmeiryuu swordsman; Negi overloads his defenses. Then he claims they can't escape from his projected space; Chisame disables it. Finally he claims that no one knows they're there anyway; Asakura reveals that all of Negi's friends outside have been watching what's happened through her artifact the whole time. Then, just to top it off, he gets smacked with Ku Fei's artifact and Takamichi lamps him one from across the room.
- Then right after that, Ala Alba's preparations promptly got shot to hell by the arrival of one of Fate's minions, causing their main retreat plan, as well as most of their backups, to fall to pieces.
- In Pokemon Special, this is pretty much the only reason why Giovanni loses against Red in the two battles they fought against each other. First time, he completely dominated Red from beginning to end, took down all his Pokemon except Pika, and knew that he could take Red down before it could attack. How was he supposed to know Red stole Lt. Surge's gloves so that Pika could charge up its attack in its Pokeball? The second time, his Deoxys is beating him and Mewtwo. Too bad Bill and Celio, miles and miles away from the battle, manage to steal the jewels that were allowing Deoxys to form change.
- In Naruto, Kisame Hoshigaki probably shouldn't have stopped to Kick the Dog after subduing Killer Bee- but who could have expected that he'd be betrayed by his own Empathic Weapon, leading to his defeat and death when reinforcements arrive? Certainly not the readers, that's for sure... ( Actually, he did see it coming, since his "death" was a Kansas City Shuffle to infiltrate the Cloud Village.)
- What he did fail to see coming was that Naruto would be able to detect murderous intention, leading to his actual death.
- In the first movie Ninja Clash in the Snow, there's a incredibly obvious Type 5: the evil ruler of Snow Country is trying to activate a machine that his peace-loving brother (who he overthrew) created under the assumption that it's a superweapon. The machine turned out to be a system of mirrors designed to warm the country and trigger spring.
- Madara did not expect Black Zetsu to betray him, seeing as he's supposed to be the manifestation of Madara's will. He isn't; he's the manifestation of Princess Kaguya's will. Princess Kaguya was the mother of the Sage of the Six Paths, and the first ever chakra user. She's also supposed to be dead.
- In Rurouni Kenshin during the Kyoto arc, Shishio has set up an attack on Kyoto as a distraction for his real goal: to take his pre-Dreadnought era Dreadnought to Tokyo. He wasn't too surprised that Kenshin read through this ruse, however he and his Dragon didn't know about Sano and frankly didn't care when he showed up. Until they found out he brought a former terrorist friends gift with him; a handful of bombs. It was this that managed to destroy the ship.
- A Certain Magical Index: A type 4, bordering on type 5, screws up Aleister Crowley's plans big time when Shiage Hamazura, a completely normal Level 0, defeats a Level 5. From then on, Shiage Hamazura becomes an unknown variable to be accounted for, forcing Aleister to use up resources in order to eliminate the unknown variable.
- Puella Magi Madoka Magica: for all of Kyubey's Batman Gambits and deception to further his plans, he fails to account for the one thing he's been tempting Madoka with in the first place: Madoka practically wishes to overwrite the entire universe. Although he still gets his true goal in a different way: The Magical Girl system still helps counter entropy, and now finding out the truth doesn't lead humanity to resent him for it.
- In Robotech: The Shadow Chronicles, the last words of bad guys are "This was not foreseen", this being an explosion with a blast radius of Millions of kilometers.
- In The Legend of Koizumi when Taizo and Sanada faces off against Yukio, they were expecting a powerful opponent, especially with the whole alien theme going on. what they didn't expect was Yukio committing a Chombo, as in picking up the game pieces and punching Taizo in the face to void the game. Yukio would do this again, flipping the table, and somehow this boosts his luck for reasons currently unknown. Sanada would reply in kind, buy picking up the table and bashing Yukio clear across the room before the latter could flip the table again. Again, no one saw it coming.
- The second season of Mobile Suit Gundam 00 has a type 4 situation, involving a hijack of a mobile armor by the enemy… only to be foiled by a Haro.
- Aeolia Schoenberg, Dangerously Genre Savvy mastermind that he was, built Veda to account for things he didn't see coming: Veda ensures that his plan is fulfilled in spirit, and can make adjustments to the original plan if unknown factors crop up that Schoenberg didn't see coming.
- Shimada serves as an Unknown Known for Rei during the Shishi Ou Cup in Sangatsu no Lion. Rei's so psyched toward engaging Gotou in the Finals match that he doesn't take the time to seriously consider how much of a threat Shimada can be, only to realize it too late when he suffers a humiliating defeat.
- Bleach: Aizen is defeated by two things he fails to see coming due to the amount of false assumptions he had been making from the beginning. He wanted Ichigo to become more powerful but failed to understand how powerful Ichigo was capable of becoming and the Hogyoku suddenly de-powered him before he could complete his fight with Ichigo. Ichigo believes Aizen was de-powered due to possessing a deeply hidden desire to be a normal shinigami.
- In Shogi, remember that it's possible to have your captured pieces used against you.
- In a similar manner, Chess, especially if a player fails a spot check.
- Since Go has a ridiculously complicated metagame deciding who actually controls territory on the board, it's possible to make unorthodox (or slightly less orthodox) moves that result in a massive advantage. (For a glamorized version of how this might happen, watch any match in Hikaru no Go.)
- Frequent Fantastic Four villain the Mad Thinker is often foiled by things that even his supergenius intelligence can't predict, such as random human behavior.
- The Infinity War has a resurrected Magus employ a complicated scheme to seize all the Infinity Gems from Warlock and his Infinity Watch. Because the plan is too complicated requiring all his attention, the Magus literally doesn't see the combined efforts of Doctor Doom and Kang interfering with his plan.
- The Satan Captain Ersatz from J. Michael Straczynski's graphic novel Midnight Nation literally says this line word for word after The Hero with the Meaningful Name of Gray turns down his offer, chooses self sacrifice, and turns the Balance Between Good and Evil right against him, something which thousands of predecessors before him had all failed to do.
- Malekith the Accursed in The Incredible Hercules falls prey to this. One panel after he revealed his scheme. Who can stand against the mighty Grendell with Hercules and The Mighty Thor both weakened? Zeus. To add injury to insult, Grendell then fell on him. Probably a Type 5, as the plan was based on the assumption that Zeus was still dead.
- In a Dracula vs Superman crossover Dracula was struck with an ignominious Type 5. His plan was to drink Superman's blood and thus gain the powers of a Kryptonian. Unfortunately he was not aware that Superman is solar-powered, and drinking his blood had a similar effect to trying to chow down on an active grenade.
- In All Fall Down, AIQ Squared's plot falls apart when he fails to plan ahead for Siphon's Death Activated Super Power.
- In the Spider-Man storyline Ends of the Earth, Doctor Octopus' final grand scheme was to flash fry all of humanity save .08% of them, so they can rebuild and remember him as the greatest monster that ever lived. When confronted with this, Spidey points out the big flaw in that plan: they'll live... brain dead - their brains would be flash fried, too!. Doc Ock promptly wigs out and Spidey takes him down.
- In Fables, Mr. Dark has the Fable community to the wall. They can't run any more, and he is slowly shattering Haven's defenses. The Fables are planning a last ditch effort to defend themselves, but the chance of it actually working are slim. Then Mr. North, the North Wind, Bigby's neglectful father who he has had a serious love/hate relationship with, and who has often been shown to not really care about much outside his realm sacrifices himself to shut Mr. Dark down permanently. That it allows him to let his zephyr grandson live is a bonus. A slam dunk with #4.
- In Mars Attacks! The Transformers, Megatron decides to use the Martian invasion as a chance to ally with them and take out the Autobots. Instead, the Martians capture both Autobots and Decepticons. As Megatron yells at the aliens and vows to kill them all, Cliffjumper points out that, as robots calling themselves "Decepticons", they should have seen this coming.
- Similarly, the Martian commander assumed that shrinking Megatron removed him as a factor. It didn't.
- In Death of Wolverine Dr. Cornelius has a plan to create an army of supersoldiers, and has everything he needs except the last ingredient: Wolverine, so he can extract his healing factor to allow them to survive his enhancements. After capturing Wolverine and explaining this, he then has to ruefully acknowledge that he tends to focus too much on the big picture as Wolverine cuts himself to reveal that he's lost his healing factor.
- In ''Getting It Right for all of his planning Aizen didn't foresee using Orihime as a Human Shield backfiring through an act of self-sacrifice.
- This tends to happen to heroes of Peggy Sue fanfics when the changes they make to the timeline come back to bite them in the ass. An excellent example of this occurs in Harry Potter and the Nightmares of Futures Past; Harry rants to Dumbledore about his living conditions with the Dursleys at one point, and Dumbledore responds by using memory charms on the Dursleys in an effort to improve the situation. When an unknown third party later removes the charms and Vernon remembers being charmed, Harry's already-rocky relationship with the Dursleys turns downright venomous, culminating in a savage beating during the first year/second year summer break that leaves Harry in critical condition.
- Evangelion 303: Expecting proving everybody that she was the top pilot in the Base, Asuka challenged Shinji to a duel. She thought she could easily beat him, since there was no way that rookie could get as much out of his ship as she could, and no trick of his could surprise her. Then he flew backwards in midair while she was chasing him and flying right behind him. Everybody's faces show that NOBODY saw that coming.
- The American troops’ reaction when their anti-Eva satellites got taken down.
- This is SEELE's reaction when they are trying to retrieve the Lance and it suddenly flies away and towards Earth.
- And again when they deploy the second generation of MP-Evas and the Children hijack them easily.
- Thousand Shinji: Tzeentch's failure to see the C'tan plans coming was what forced the canon!40k gods to work together.
- Pops up left and right in Tiberium Wars, to both GDI and Nod. After all, GDI never saw the initial Nod assault coming, nor did Nod ever see Havoc's mini-guerilla war, fifty thousand GDI Marines, or a division of Mammoth Tanks coming.
- In With Strings Attached, the completely unexpected appearance of mobs of skahs in Ehndris diverts the baddies' attention and gives John and Ringo the chance to avoid a head-on confrontation with the Raleka as they race to get into the warehouse.
- Also, no one was expecting Kerrun to have a Villainous Breakdown and declare the skahs to actually be Idris (the mortal enemies of the Raleka), shifting the focus of the Raleka away from John and Ringo.
- Jewel Of Darkness: Midnight's plan, to torture Robin into insanity in order to force the Titans to disband, ultimately fails because she had no way of knowing that Ai was possessed/working for Trigon, was plotting against her, and would ultimately sell her out to the Titans. Robin also suggests that the plan would have failed anyway, because even if she had succeeded in breaking him, he has faith that the team would be strong enough to withstand it.
- The Dilgar War has a few of them, on all sides, but the most notable are Earthforce actually being able to take on the Dilgar best and not only win (this ability was Type 4 for the Dilgar high command, but Jha'dur knew they had the ability and tried to keep Earth neutral) but utterly annihilating them with an absurdly high number of nuclear weapons (this was Type 4 for Jha'dur, who, when told of how many nukes were being fired at her, admitted she should have seen that coming but hadn't) and Jha'dur's attempt at exterminating Earth's population with a plague being ambushed by an unbelievable Type 3 in the form of a Minbari fleet led by Chosen One Dukhat in person who acted on information of the Vorlon.
- In A Fighting Chance, the Minbari gets a major Oh Crap! when they realize that Earthforce has broken their stealth. This instance is part Type 4 and 3, as in the backstory of this fanfic the Dilgar had already did it once (and in fact they were the ones who sold Earthforce a few dozens of the stealth-breaking sensors complete with blueprints), but that happened to the Windswords who apparently never told anyone else.
- The Fate/Zero fanfic The Fourth King has a terrifying type 3 when Kariya summons freakin' Godzilla as Berserker. Oh Crap!, soiled underwear and Hilarity ensued for everyone but Kariya and those protected by him.
- In Game Theory (Fan Fic), Precia's carefully laid plans repeatedly get hit with unexpected elements that screw up her strategy, but she manages to adjust accordingly. Only it turns out that one of the aforementioned Spanners In The Works actually opened up the possibility of pursuing a better plan, making it an inversion.
- From Fantasy Of Utter Ridiculousness: Yukari Yakumo, Gensokyo's resident Chessmaster, admits as much when the moon is damaged in the wake of Coop and the Glorft's latest battle. Megas's unexpected teleportation into Gensokyo later sidelines her for most of the story.
- In Sonic X: Dark Chaos, Maledict is a Chessmaster who created an extremely elaborate Gambit Roulette to defeat the Angels and conquer the universe. However, he didn't expect Sonic the Hedgehog to get pulled into the fray by mistake. Nor did he expect his gambit to create a malevolent Eldritch Abomination by mistake.
- In Vapors Tsunade is The Chessmaster, and easily out gambits both Danzo and several of the other kages at a few points. But while she knew Aiko was planning something as part of their plan to take out Danzo, even she was caught flat-footed when Sai walked into her office and announced his desire to defect from Root.
Films — Animated
- In Titan A.E., in a subversion of The Guards Must Be Crazy, the guard that the heroes are trying to fool instantly figures out that they're trying to pull a fast one over on him. Preed subtly leans over and asks if the group has a plan B. Stith beats the crap out of the guard, and leads Preed to the following quote.
Preed: An intelligent guard. Didn't see that one coming.
- Type 4 occurs in the climax. The Drej have their entire fleet attacking the Titan station, hellbent on destroying it. Titan is running on auxiliary power, which isn't enough to activate the station. The Drej, being energy beings, are undefeatable...until the heros realize that Drej energy can be absorbed and converted into station power. The entire fleet is not so much destroyed as it is eaten.
Films — Live-Action
- Type 3 occurs in Serenity when the Alliance releases the Pax. No one could have foreseen the Reavers' creation Of course, their failure to do so is a classic case of the Idiot Ball, as what kind of a moron doesn't run proper clinical trials before dosing an entire planetary population.
- A type 4 occurs later in the movie when the Alliance's trap is derailed as Serenity charges at them with an army of Reavers.
Zoe: You know they're gonna see us coming.Mal: No. They're not gonna see this coming.
- A type 4 occurs later in the movie when the Alliance's trap is derailed as Serenity charges at them with an army of Reavers.
- The Coen Brothers movie Fargo centers around a man trying to get out of financial trouble by hatching an Evil Plan to have some men kidnap his wife and pretend to hold her for ransom so he could get some money from her wealthy father to pay off his debts. The plan spirals completely out of control and causes the deaths of about five or six people, including the wife.
- Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy probably executed this in the most humorously absurd manner. When Burgundy and company start butting heads with another news group, they bring along multitude of weapons. Soon, other rival news groups join, and they all get into one large and epic battle royale. At different times, one person gets killed with a trident, another gets caught in a net and dragged on the floor by two horses, someone gets a hold of a grenade, Luke Wilson's character's gets an arm chopped off, and then his other arm is ripped off by a bear.
Frank: (after getting his arm chopped off out of nowhere)" Ugh! I did not see that coming!"
- The Joker's reaction to the eventual result of his social experiment in The Dark Knight can be seen as an emotive example of this trope. Of course, being the Joker, he's not put off for long.
- Strong type 3 in Big Game. Nobody expected that a thirteen-year-old badass Finn would be going through his Rite of Passage the same day and in the same place the president is being hunted down.
Chief of staff: Who the hell is that?
- Star Wars: Emperor Palpatine thought it impossible that the natives of Endor (human child-sized savage creatures) might be able to take advantage of their native terrain against the Empire's finest troops (though said natives did have help from a Jedi, a droid who could hack anything, and several crack shots). And he apparently never considered that a guy who turned to the Dark Side to save his wife might turn from it to save his son. If you take that plot from the EU, you could say that he did have a plan to survive the latter...but not for the Rebellion succeeding in blowing up the Death Star.
- Once upon a Time in Mexico's Agent Sands had a nice Chessmaster scheme going. A number of things went wrong, including Cucuy going Face-Heel Turn and Mariachi and crew deciding to help the President instead of letting him die, but the one hitch that Sands truly did not see coming was Ajedrez turning out to be not only The Mole, but Barillo's daughter. Ajedrez even lampshades it: "You never saw it coming, did you?"
- Which makes for a nice bit of irony (or something) as he shortly after loses the ability to see ANYTHING coming in an Eye Scream moment.
- Said verbatim by Griffin in Jumper after Roland escapes through a jump scar and takes Millie with him.
Griffin: Well... crap. Didn't see that coming.
- The type 4 is the whole plot of Under Siege with S. Seagal. Who would have thought that this annoying cook could be a threat to the very well conceived plan executed by the bad guys.
- The type 3 is the plot of Under Siege 2: Dark Territory and a lot of action movies, like the Die Hard series, other of Seagal's movies and many others.
- In Kick-Ass, Frank D'Amico never imagined that by framing the cop who refused to take his bribe, he would turn him into something far more dangerous. Big Daddy was so ridiculously efficient in destroying D'Amico's operation that if Kick-Ass wouldn't have accidentally provided him with a lead, D'Amico probably wouldn't have realized who was after him until he was about to die.
- Both in-universe and meta examples in Avengers: Age of Ultron; in-universe being Quicksilver and Hawkeye snarkily quoting the trope when each surprises the other during their brief skirmishes.
- The last instance when the trope is quoted is where it doubles as a meta-example; after Quicksilver shields Hawkeye and a civilian boy from Ultron's gunfire barrage, he quotes the trope one last time before falling over dead from multiple gunshot wounds. This being a Joss Whedon film, it would be expected that a major character would die. However, the audience likely didn't see it coming that Quicksilver would be that character.
- In the Kamen Rider Decade movie All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker, the Big Bad Shadow Moon has Decade and Kuuga right where he wants them when Kamen Rider Double comes out of nowhere for a Curb-Stomp Battle ending with Shadow Moon embedded in the wall of his own castle.
- Richie Rich fits type 5 almost word-for-word, as the Riches do in fact keep a vast vault filled with valuables, but it's all family memorabilia and things with sentimental value. Their money, rather sensibly, has been invested and isn't vulnerable to just being swiped.
- In Mystery Science Theater 3000, Crow did know that breaching the hull of the Satellite of Love would result in dangerous decompression... yet he still somehow thinks tunneling back to Earth is a good idea and is taken by surprise when it doesn't work.
Crow: Whooooooooooa I didn't expect this! [...] Wow, this is confusing! Mike! You wanna hand me me my calculations? [The wind happens to blow Crow's calculations right into his face.] Thank you. [Reading.] Well, look at that. "Breach hull—all die." Even had it underlined.
- Pirates of the Caribbean:
- Jack Sparrow in general is type 4, no one (possibly including Jack himself) knows what he's going to do next.
- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: A Not-So-Omniscient Council of Bickering Pirates are voting on who will be their leader. Naturally, they all vote for themselves. Counts as type 4.
Elizabeth: Elizabeth Swann.Barbossa: Barbossa.Jack Sparrow: Elizabeth Swann.
- In Clash of the Titans 2010, the heroes are all cornered by giant scorpions, then they are saved unexpectedly by the Djinn. No one ever expected that, not the characters or the audience.
- The Spanish Prisoner: Almost everything that happened was planned out, but the plotters didn't predict that Joe would just happen to hang on to a book that one of them left fingerprints on.
- The Italian movie Scialla has the protagonists Bruno and Luca survive the mob thanks to a type 3. Luca had stolen drugs and money from the mob boss' own home, and was so pissed that not even Luca's father Bruno giving him back everything as soon as he found out calmed him. The boss was about to make an example of them... Then realizes that Bruno was his favourite high school teacher that he still adores, and lets them go. The boss' underlings and Luca even lampshade this.
- Played at and ultimately subverted in The Game when Nicholas invades the building of the organization that's been running his life for the past few days with what one of the lead actors recognizes as a real gun, not one of their props, and she pleads with him that it's all a big surprise party and they're not really trying to kill him and he ends up shooting his brother just as it turns out there really was a cake and it all flies horribly off the rails, driving him to jump from the rooftop... and then it turns out that, no, that was a squib, the gun's loaded with blanks, and even that was all in the script.
- In Pumpkinhead, Ed Harley wants revenge against the kids who accidentally (and carelessly) kill his son. He has an old backwoods witch, Haggis, call upon a demon to do so. But he didn't count on enduring his victims' death agonies every time "Pumpkinhead" makes a kill. Or having his soul condemned to hell for invoking a demon to murder for him.
- The Dresden Files is absolutely full of this:
Wile E. Coyote. Suuuuuper genius.
- Just about any strategy of Harry's relies on him knowing something that the Big Bad doesn't, or him doing something the Big Bad couldn't have expected.
- In general, Harry has a lot of street smarts and fights really dirty. Regularly averting the Squishy Wizard trope, Harry is physically fit, somewhat trained in martial arts, has years of brawling experience, and almost invariably packs a gun. On one occasion some wannabe Practioners tried to challenge Harry to a magical duel, so he pulled out his revolver.
Hag (from Welcome to the Jungle): I've taken your staff! I've taken your rod!Harry: You should have taken my gun.
- How Harry killed Aurora, the Summer Lady deserves special mention. Nobody ever thinks of the Little Folk, allowing Harry to smuggle them and some box cutters into the most pitched battle he could find. Just when he seemed spent... he opened the equivalent of a bag of poisonous bees in her face.
- Harry, the famed wizard detective, hired a muggle detective. He subcontracted.
- Despite the number of times that Harry gets thrown into situations that he knows less about than he should, he continues to wisecrack his way through. Very occasionally, the baddies bring something so far out of left field that even Harry is rendered speechless. Demeter, Lara Raith, and Nicodemus all had their moments.
- Kringle, aka Santa Claus, has another name. Odin. Boy did he love dropping that bombshell on Harry.
- The Big Bad's plan in Cold Days is brilliant, comes out of left field, and is the only fitting successor to the plan from Summer Knight we've seen so far.
- Harry performed this on himself with a supernatural hitman and a memory wipe.
- In Harry's duel with He Who Walks Behind, the latter corners Harry at a gas station. Guess what happens. Guess.
- In the climactic duel in White Night, a Big Bad is taken by surprise when the ground he's running on suddenly turns into frictionless dust.
- Now that Harry is buddies with the Genius Loci of Demonreach, he gets to regularly pull these off on the island when he's fighting people only running on mortal senses. Even immortal sense aren't as good as intellectus.
- No one, not even Uriel, really expected that Waldo Butters would become a Knight of the Cross, much less reforge the Sword of Faith into a lightsaber.
- In Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, Hari Seldon is able to predict politics using math. However, the emergence of "The Mule", a mutant (sort of), is so powerful that he alters the path of history. When Seldon's message about a Civil War (predicted for the time of The Mule's emergence) goes over like a lead balloon, the people realize that The Mule has altered the plan. Seldon has died by this time, so he doesn't get a moment to reflect, but the reactions of the people who have up until then been relying on Seldon's fully accurate predictions are fairly priceless.
- Of course, while Seldon didn't see the Mule himself coming, he did see the possibility of an unexpected variable coming and screwing with his plan, so he created a secret group tasked with correcting things if the unexpected occurred.
- Ironically, this makes Seldon himself fit into that category. There's no way his own "psychohistory" could have predicted that he would come along and set up a path for a new and better empire!
- In Hurog, a villain is killed by someone he would never have suspected to be able to betray him. More precisely, Jakoven is killed by Garranon, whom he used as Sex Slave ever since Garranon was fifteen. Jakoven thought he had Garranon thouroughly manipulated and brainwashed. While Garranon fights him, he mentions that the sex was so good, certainly Garranon must have liked him? Garranon replies that it was just sex, and he despises Jakoven. Then he kills him.
- Grand Admiral Thrawn was playing a very effective game of Xanatos Speed Chess, until bitten by two or three Unknown Knowns. Specifically, Niles Ferrier botching his plan for the fringe, causing a group of independent smugglers to join the New Republic in battle; C'baoth killing the ysalamiri and escaping his imprisonment; and his secret cloning facility being discovered, all at the same time. All of this he might have been able to deal with. But the one thread that came loose in his plan, and led to his eventual demise, was all caused by one single Unknown Unknown, or, as Timothy Zahn put it, a bit of information he didn't know and didn't know he didn't know: that Leia was Darth Vader's daughter.note At the very least, he didn't know that the Noghri could detect that fact simply from Leia's scent.
- In Yendi, a perfectly good plan to install Sethra the Younger as Warlord was foiled because Aliera and Morrolan were standing in the wrong places and then Aliera revived Norathar and Cawti.
- The Culture has its own term for Type 3 situations — an "Outside Context Problem". For instance, a prosperous South Pacific island tribe suddenly discovering they've been colonized by an 18th-century European naval power — the kind of situation a civilization only encounters the same way a sentence encounters a period, once. The novel Excession revolves around one of these in the form of a Negative Space Wedgie.
- In Ben Counter's Warhammer 40,000 Horus Heresy novel Galaxy in Flames, when Angron attacks the survivors of their treacherous attack, Horus is enraged — with himself.
"Angron is a killer!" snapped Horus, rounding on his Mournival son. "He solves every problem with raw violence. He attacks first and thinks latter, if he thinks at all. And yet I never saw this!"
- Later on, Lion El'Jonson, one of the deadliest combat primarchs, utterly destroys the favored Daemon of the God of Fate, impaling it through the heart as it gives him a fancy speech about how omniscient it and it's master are:
- In Beowulf's Children, the sequel to The Legacy of Heorot by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle, and Steven Barnes, Aaron Tragon's (the Magnificent Bastard of the novel) schemes to colonize the mainland of the planet and becoming the new leader of the colonists is derailed by a rather spectacular Unknown Unknown. After shooting Little Chaka and Cadmann to keep them from warning everyone of the imminent continent sweeping attack of the recently discovered huge flesh-eating "bees" with Super Speed, all in order to keep everyone from leaving, he goes back to the colony and tells everyone a story of how they were devoured by grendels. He puts on a very convincing act of grief and shame, while preparing to take the reins of leadership left behind by Cadmann. All of a sudden, the intelligent grendel protagonist approaches the colony, having saved Little Chaka, who proceeds to blow the whole scheme out of the water by telling everyone of Aaron's betrayal. The only reason Aaron avoids execution on the spot is the untimely arrival of the aforementioned flesh-eating "bees" with superspeed.
- Usually what causes any of The Chessmasters in A Song of Ice and Fire to finally slip up.
- Tyrion is left badly injured after a battle, and while he's comatose, every single one of the men on his side is either turned to Cersei's side or replaced. Given the circumstances, he manages a spectacular recovery, which is promptly destroyed when Joffrey is murdered and Tyrion is framed for it. It's yet to be seen whether or not he will manage to come back from this one, but he's probably going to meet Daenerys soon, and Tyrion's most beloved dream has always been to ride a dragon...
- Cersei resurrects the Swords and Stars and has them charge her rival with treason; unfortunately, the Swords and Stars decide to torture the man she sent to testify against Maergery, and, trying to save himself, he tells them everything, including Cersei's own crimes. Then, just to rub salt in the wound, her actions towards Jaime come back to bite her in the ass when he refuses to champion for her and instead continues on his own campaign.
- Robb, Catelyn, and most of the Stark campaign gets screwed by Robb marrying the wrong woman and pissing off House Frey, leading to The Red Wedding. Readers should see this one coming, though.
- The entire country of Westeros got screwed when Eddard Stark met Joffrey Baratheon. Instead of allowing Lord Stark to live in exchange for a false confession, the newly-crowned Joffrey has him executed, and thus the War of the Five Kings is kicked off with a bang.
- Tywin Lannister certainly didn't expect a vengeful Tyrion shooting him in the bowels with a crossbow while he was in the privy. Of course, most people don't expect they will die on the toilet.
- The villains of the last Narnia book The Last Battle; Shift, Ginger, and the Calormene warlord Rishdan, all meet a nasty end due to one horrifying Unknown Unknown: the demon Tash is real. And pissed.
- Archmagos Khobotov in Soul Drinkers discovers a few problems with his plan for stealing the Soulspear and back-engineering it - one Unknown Unknown and two Unknown Knowns.
- Unknown Known 1: he threatened Space Marines with a spacegoing artillery piece and assumed they'd do the logical thing and back down, despite the fact that these Marines are descended from the most headstrong of the loyal Primarchs, and Marines are not very logical people in any case.
- Unknown Known 2: threatening a star fort without considering that there may be vehicles on board...vehicles the Soul Drinkers used to take over the artillery piece.
- Unknown Unknown from later in the book: a Daemon Prince of Tzeentch was running the whole thing and turned up to take the Soulspear for himself.
- Space Marine Battles has one case of Known Unknowns and another of Unknown Knowns.
- Known Unknown: The Legion of the Damned comes out of the left field for the Chaos warband which is just about to destroy the opposing force completely. To be honest, this is their entire schtick.
- Unknown Known: This one line from Death of Antagonis, showing just how much someone was underestimated:
That pretty-faced traitor is no captain of mine.
- The Doctor Who short story collection "Short Trips and Side Steps" featured a story called 'The Android Maker of Calderon IV'. The title character has meticulously engineered a plan to get revenge on the Third Doctor (who thwarted his plan to set up a technocracy) and assassinate the planet's government by building an android in the form of the Doctor responsible as a suicide bomber. Then he activates the return beacon the Doctor left behind...and the Fourth Doctor steps out, giving us a demonstration of the Unknown Unknown, and a marvellous quote for anyone who's ever been on the receiving end of this trope:
- A Type 4 blows up the Big Bad Storm King's Evil Plan in Tad Williams' fantasy epic Memory Sorrow And Thorn. Specifically, he didn't care who showed up for the final ritual to unite the Three Swords and reverse time so he could return to Osten Ard, but one of those people turned out to have been primed to figure out his weakness at the very last second, and another happened to be carrying the Chekhov's Gun necessary to defeat him afterwards.
- A Type 4 is what brings Sauron's downfall in The Lord of the Rings, specifically that he never thought that anyone would actually deny the power of the Ring, much less that two insignificant creatures would actually have the audacity to sneak into Mordor and then destroy his Ring of Power.
- In Cain's Last Stand, Varan gets hit by type three in that he didn't know that Cain's aide, Jurgen, was a blank, so when he met up with Cain to discuss the terms of surrender, the psychic ability that allowed him to instantly convert people to his cause wouldn't work. Cain ends up kicking his ass off a skyscraper. Literally.
"Well, that was unexpected..."
- Lord Vetinari subverts the trope by accounting for Didn't See That Coming. Instead of planning, he waits until the unexpected (or the expected—he has a very firm grasp of human nature) happens, then drives the situation to his advantage from there. Even when it seems like he's miscalculated, people prove every bit as stupid or clever, dogged or unmotivated, loyal or treacherous as he expects. He is a master at Xanatos Speed Chess.
- In latest addition to The Wheel of Time series, The Gathering Storm, Rand pretends to begin playing Graendal's game of manipulation and subterfuge, then obliterates the palace she's in with a column of balefire.
How do I outthink someone smarter than I am?
- The following book subverts this. Apparently, one way to handle Unknown Unknowns is to spy on your enemy until the last possible second, and have someone around that can serve as a body double...
- Harry Potter: "Nobody will ever guess that I've made Soul Jars, and even if they do they will never find them. What? They did and they did? FUUUUUUUUUUUUU-"
- Voldy has one as well before the series takes place. He seriously did not expect a mother's love to cause his curse to backfire like it did. He later admits his mistake...but he doesn't learn from it.
- The legacy of the Elder Wand, which Voldemort so desired in Deathly Hallows, was supposed to die with Dumbledore, by having Snape kill him by his command. However, unexpected and unbeknown to everyone till the very end, Draco Malfoy had already inadvertently gained the wand's allegiance at the end of The Half-Blood Prince by Disarming Dumbledore (thus defeating him) beforehand. Then a few months later, Harry overpowers Malfoy at the Malfoy Manor, which subsequently transfers the Elder Wand's ownership to him. According to wand lore, one only has to defeat the Elder Wand's current master to win over its ownership; whether the previous master was in possession of the wand does not matter. Thus, even though Voldemort is in possession of the Elder Wand in the final battle, he cannot unleash its full power, nor can he harm Harry with it, as the wand has already sworn allegiance to Harry, making him its true master.
- Also counts as an unknown known: Voldemort believes that Snape is the true owner because he killed its previous owner. Its previous owner was Dumbledore, who got it from Grindelwald, who was killed by Voldemort. Oops.
- The Big Good Dumbledore gets his own moment. He's a supremely intelligent wizard, completely in control of himself, plans years and years in advance and all his guesses, intuitions and plans come exactly as he wishes. The one mistake he makes? When hunting for Voldemort's horcruxes, he's unprepared for the fact that the chosen object was in fact a lost artifact in its own right, the Resurrection Stone - The Remnant of a quest Dumbledore abandoned nearly 80 years ago, which cost him the life of his sister and his relationship to his brother. Confronted with a single opportunity to meet his sister and beg for her forgiveness, Dumbledore let his guard slip and fiddled with the object despite it being cursed (which he knew fully well). This resulted in him getting a curse that makes him Secretly Dying for the better part of a year. What makes Dumbledore so awesome is that he's able to capitalize on his own mistake and have it adjust into a pitch perfect end-game.
"I make mistakes like the next man. In fact, being—forgive me—rather cleverer than most men, my mistakes tend to be correspondingly huger."
- Caesar from Matthew Reilly's Area 7 puts a microwave transmitter on the president's heart, so that he can set explosives to blow up half of America the moment he dies. He also puts one on his own heart to prevent the heroes killing him if his plan fails. He didn't anticipate that the heroes could fake the signal using the black box from an AWACS plane allowing Schofield to just shoot him.
- Lit make mistakes like the next Septimus Heap - Magyk: This is DomDaniels reaction when Marcia reveals that the Apprentice the Heaps have just saved is actually him.
- In the fourth Earths Children book, Plains of Passage, Attaroa tries to kill Ayla to show her tribe what happen to those who resist her, only to be killed by Wolf, who has been hiding in the woods. Since Wolf is the world's first domesticated wolf, there really wasn't any way Attaroa could have even suspected that he exists.
- The appendix of Dune (the first Dune book) argues that the Bene Gesserit order should have foreseen that the Kwisatz Haderach they were trying to create would not serve the order.
- They were also making it easy for their members to fake being messiahs in case of emergency, so they underestimated the real thing.
- In From Russia with Love, Kerim gives a speech on this trope:
This is a billiard table... And you have hit your white ball and it is traveling easily and quietly towards the red. The pocket is alongside. Fatally, inevitably, you are going to hit the red and the red is going into that pocket. It is the law of the billiard table. But, outside the orbit of these things, a jet pilot has fainted and his plane is diving straight at the billiard room, or a gas main is about to explode... And the building collapses on you and on top of the billiard table. Then what has happened to that white ball that could not miss the red ball, and to the red ball that could not miss the pocket? The white ball could not miss according to the laws of the billiard table. But the laws of the billiard table are not the only laws.
- Callahan's Lady has a couple of doozies in its final story. The Professor, the World's Greatest Conman, bought $50,000 in counterfeit ten-dollar bills from Tony Donuts. After the money had been disposed of, Tony demanded the bogus bills back, so the Professor was forced to rob a bank, to pass real money to Tony for his fakes. Unfortunately, after bringing Tony the nice, neatly bound sequential bills, Tony realizes the money isn't his counterfeit cash, because he'd never figured out how to work the serial number increment mechanism on his press, and thus all his counterfeit money had the same exact serial number. Perfect example of a type 4; clever people have troubles properly accounting for real stupidity.
- Subsequently, Tony falls to a type 3 — he's not in a caper novel, he's in a time travel book. He's prevented from murdering the professor via 1) time/space travel getting the heroes there on time and 2) future technology permanently removing his capacity for physical violence — he ends up with catastrophic failure of coordination any time he tries to hurt someone. The Genre Shift is too much for him.
- The Big Bad of Tantalize (a Twilight knockoff), had a pretty good plan and executed it well, but got well and truly screwed by something he never anticipated: three of his Five-Bad Band were secretly werepeople who betrayed him, killing his fourth and last ally in the process. To be fair, the readers didn't see it coming, either.
- Also, he didn't expect that Quincie would abandon him for Kieran after all, though that might more accurately be Hubris.
- In the Honor Harrington novel The Short Victorious War, Havenite battlecruisers expecting a lone Manticoran light cruiser stumble upon a dreadnought. The results are... obvious.
- Mission of Honor. Manticore was on alert and ready for trouble, but Oyster Bay still succeeded because the Mesans were not using impellers, which the Manties knew to look out for, but their new spider drives, which were a completely new technology.
- The Solarians have been screwed multiple times by the Unknown Known of Manticoran and Havenite technology being well ahead of theirs. It's not as if they didn't consider the possibility; they just rejected it out of hand.
- The discovery of the Lynx Terminus of the Manticore Wormhole Junction (which no one could have predicted) disrupted the Alignment's plans, forcing them to bring about the Manticoran-Solarian conflict ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, this is at least part of what led Queen Elizabeth to make peace with Haven. If it hadn't been for the Solarian threat, she probably would have simply forced Haven into submission. However, they also didn't anticipate Herlander Simoes' defection, which led to the Manticorans and Havenites learning about the Alignment and forming a military alliance. On the one hand, this will help bring about the downfall of the Solarian League even sooner. On the other hand, the fact that the Grand Alliance doesn't know about the Renaissance Factor or where the Alignment's base is is the only thing keeping them alive.
- The Mesan Alignment also got shafted by Oversteegen kicking their ass at Tiberian, the entire clusterfuck in Crown of Slaves that resulted in the establishment of the Kingdom of Torch, and HMS Hexapuma catching a Jessyk freighter using a false transponder, and that one only happened because Aikawa Kagiyama was bored and decided to do a detailed analysis of a random ship for fun. In fact, they've been having a major problem in this department for some time, starting with Manticore managing to stand up to Haven in the first place.
- Pretty much the reaction of the Malwa Empire and Link every time their carefully-made plans encounter the titular Byzantine general of the Belisarius Series. A prime example was when he walked into an enemy-held city as a nameless "prisoner" of a unit of Kushans who'd changed sides that the enemy had no idea existed; the men were believed to have been wiped out with the rest of another Malwan force that had been obliterated.
- A spectacular type four happens in the Codex Alera book Princeps' Fury to Gaius Sextus during the fall of Alera Imperia
Gaius: Crows. Didn't even look at them twice
- Nuklear Age's Dr. Menace encounters one every few seconds, as one after another of her plots fail in Deus ex Machina style. Her first kidnapping plot failed when a just-introduced supporting character happened to catapult into her abandoned warehouse base, destroying the building, her orbital death ray failed when Nuklear Man decided to show off by firing a Plazma Beam into the sky, her plan to convince Nuklear Man to turn evil via telepathy failed when Dr. Genius happened to contact him telepathically soon afterward and he mentioned it in passing, her plan to capture her alien visitor failed when the alien happened to be an nigh-omnipotent god... Her plans not only failed, but failed in the most frustrating style possible. It is mentioned several times that she was finding it more and more difficult not to start screaming.
- In The Scar, Silas Fennec succumbs to a Type 4 when he overlooks Armada's tugboats and their potential as explosive ramships. His oversight directly leads to the utter decimation of the New Crobuzon fleet.
- In the backstory of the Mercy Thompson series, a trophy wife kills her husband with a pair of gardening shears, and pins the blame on the gardener. How was she to know he was a fey, who can't touch iron without being burned? And even if she somehow knew that, how was she to know the Grey Lords had chosen this moment to break the masquerade?
- In Jack Campbell's The Lost Fleet novel Invincible, Desjani warns that her great plan is also a terrible plan because they know so little about the aliens that it relies on some assumptions that could easily be thrown off. They go with it anyway, though.
- The Forerunner Saga reveals the truth about the connection of the Forerunners and Humans in Halo. Humanity use to be an interstellar empire and were allied with the San 'Shyuum(aka the PROPHETS) in their war against the Flood. Plus they also ended up fighting with the Forerunners over territory, the Humans have defeated the Flood, but lost to the Forerunners who devolved them back on Earth.
- In Honor Harrington: The Short Victorious War, the People's Republic of Haven opens the war by covertly preying on Manticoran shipping, ambushing convoys with superior forces. One such raid goes pear-shaped when, instead of the lightly defended convoy they expected, Battlecruiser Divisions 141 and 142 drop out of hyper within energy range of the dreadnought HMS Bellerophon, which by a complete fluke was passing through the system while rotating home. The Peeps even manage to get off the first shot, but cause only minor structural damage before the dreadnought's return fire pastes them. And the best part? It was the night shift, and Bellerophon's officer of the watch was a communications officer who won by reading down a list.
- Emilio Salgari, author of Sandokan and a number of other series, has a habit of dropping these on his characters (all sides). Here's a brief and incomplete list of the ones that surprised the characters the most:
- In The Tigers of Mompracem Sandokan and two prahos (a Small malayan sailing ship) worth of pirates are fighting a British frigate. Knowing how badly outgunned they are, the pirates close in to try and board... At which point the readers are informed it's a steam frigate in the context of the frigate moving away to avoid the boarding. The narration adds that the pirates screamed obscenities at the Brits for this;
- After finally boarding the frigate and getting nearly killed in the fight (as by the time he succeeded the frigate had killed most of the pirates, who were in fact trying to run away when the frigate noticed them), Sandokan was saved and healed by British nobleman and former naval officer lord Guillonk, who had absolutely no idea the most dreaded pirate of the Indian Ocean would be healed in his own house. Or that he and his beloved niece Marianna would fall in love (not that Sandokan and Marianna themselves had seen it coming). Nor Sandokan expected to have his identity revealed when the captain of the frigate went at lord Guillonk's home for dinner (the captain took a while because he too could not believe it was Sandokan until after he killed a tiger in a knife fight);
- In The King of the Sea Yanez and some of Sandokan's former pirates are in trouble, with their ship about to be overran by Dayak head hunters... Then the Dayaks are sunk by an improbable newcomer: an American-built ironclad that had been ordered and paid in advance by the Sultan of Shemmerindan but had been refused by his successor and was passing by because the builder wanted her solf off. Also, the crew of the ship didn't expect that the white man they had just saved would buy the ship at twice of the best price they expected to sell her for;
- The crowner comes in the final novel, Yanez's Revenge, when Sandokan comes to help Yanez (who by that time had become the maharajah of Assam with twelve elephants, two hundred Dayak head hunters armed with repeating carbines, twelve Maxim machine guns, and a biologist specialized in biological warfare complete of cholera vibrios and shots to immunize Sandokan and Yanez's men.
- In A Tale of the Unwithering Realm, the Dark Tower has perfected astrology to the point where they can very accurately predict the future years in advance. On one hand, this makes them nearly undefeatable... but on the other hand, they rely on their predictions so much that, in the very rare case that something unforeseen happens, it tends to toss one hell of a wrench in their plans. An example is Abby, an unique "foreverborn" whose actions cannot be predicted by astrology, so pretty much every single thing she does in the book (starting with freeing Ilya from his prison cell) ends up highly inconvenient for the Tower.
- Early in the Relativity series, Michael has discovered Sara's superhero identity but hasn't yet told her he knows. His father has forbidden him from telling her until he can figure out the best way to handle it. What neither Michael nor his father planned on was Sara telling Michael her secret.
Rune: (pulls a bunch of papers out of his tunic and begins flipping through them) Nope, nope, nope. Not in the program.
- Fortunately, he realizes what she's building up to and manages to convince her that anything important she has to say can wait until later.
- Which backfires spectacularly when she finds out anyway.
- This trope is played for laughs in "Rune Returns... Again". Rune has captured all of the superheroes. Suddenly, Sara's husband shows up.
- Fortunately, he realizes what she's building up to and manages to convince her that anything important she has to say can wait until later.
Live Action Television
- Pretty much every episode of Leverage, starting with Episode 1.
- In an episode of The Sarah Connor Chronicles a local gangster discovers that Sarah is a fugitive and tries to blackmail her. To make sure she would play along, he sends one of his henchman to kidnap her children. Since Sarah's "daughter" is actually a killing machine from the future, that plan goes really bad, really fast.
- An episode of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine featured the return of a bunch of hyper-intelligent, genetically engineered "friends" of Dr. Bashir's, who, upon thinking on the Dominion war situation, decide it was in the best interest of all involved if the Federation surrendered or was defeated quickly and the Dominion won (which would save billions of lives in the long run, and end in a galaxy-wide rebellion to overthrow it). They go to give the Dominion some classified Starfleet tactical data, but are stopped when one of their own tells on them. Dr. Bashir rubs it in, explaining that if one person can uproot their brilliant plan, then maybe their calculations might become nil due to the uncalculatability of human nature.
- A very subtle double example, as the payoff is in an earlier episode: the Dominion worked out the exact same projections, and had a counter to it: When they won, they were going to purge Earth, as an example.
- In an episode of Torchwood, a paedophile tries to force a little girl into his car. He really had no way of knowing that fairies were interested in the girl and that they were not the Disney kind...
- In Children of Earth, Jack Harkness falls prey to a Type Four: he knew that the 456 were capable of curing viruses deadly to humans, but it never occurred to him that they could create and instantly release one if anyone tried to resist their demands. And he learns this in the worst way possible.
- The Volume Four finale of Heroes, "An Invisible Thread" involves Peter having used Sylar's shapeshifting power to impersonate the President, heading off Sylar's attempt to shapeshift into the President and become him. From Peter's dialogue, it is clear that Sylar probably knew that Peter had replicated one of his powers, but wouldn't have expected him to have taken something so mundane.
- The Volume Four premiere had a Type Four. Danko, having rounded up most of the specials and put them on a plane to a detention facility, agrees to free Claire in order to mollify Nathan Petrelli (her father). He admits that her power (regeneration) doesn't make her a threat to society. However, he didn't know that Nathan has no real control over Claire, or that being immortal and all but immune to pain means that she can and will carry out acts normal people would consider suicidal. Claire escapes from Nathan, gets on the plane via the landing gear, frees the captive specials, and ends up causing the plane to crash. Now the government has to round up the specials all over again, only this time they're actively evading capture.
- Stargate SG-1: After capturing SG-1 in a planet he recently conquered, Cronos decided to publicly execute them so that the locals would see how foolish it is to try to resist him. Unfortunately for him, during the execution it was revealed that they were actually SG-1 robotic Doppelgangers. Kind of hard to keep claiming to be an all-knowing god when you can't even keep your jaw closed.
- In The Office (US) every time Dwight tries to do something manipulative it falls prey to this. He even lampshades it.
Just once, I would like to be a puppetmaster and have nothing go wrong. Just once.
- Buffy the Vampire Slayer
- The Master had planned to kill Buffy, gaining the power to escape his prison and open the Hellmouth, bringing about The End of the World as We Know It. If he thought about Buffy's allies, he dismissed them as powerless. Unfortunately, while his plan to kill Buffy worked, Xander knew CPR. Buffy therefore returns from the dead, and proceeds to kill the Master. Considering the Master has been in a prison for hundreds of years, it's possible that CPR itself was an "unknown unknown" to him. The idea that a human could come back to life through non-supernatural means may well have been completely foreign to him.
- In Season Two, Spike and Drusilla had a plan to destroy the world. They had resurrected the Judge, a demon who, according to prophecy, could not be killed by any weapon forged. They did not take into account several hundred years of advancement in weapons technology, and Buffy blew away the Judge with a rocket launcher. Given that The Judge was defeated last time he rose up too, they might not have actually expected him to destroy the world (which Spike rather likes), but they were certainly expecting a bigger death toll than two. One of which was one of their own minions.
- On Covert Affairs, Auggie experiences a 4-5 combination when he appeals to his ex-girlfriend Natasha for help on a case, and is somewhat surprised and dismayed when she refuses to help, still angry that he landed her in jail previously. He says the trope name verbatim when she slaps him upon their first reunion...except he means it literally, having been blinded since their last encounter.
- In Babylon 5, after Jha'dur, the last Dilgar was captured; she managed to get a pardon in exchange for developing her immortality serum. Just before she was about to go to earth she gloated to Sinclair that the serum can only be manufactured by killing other people and that her capture was actually part of her plan to make the rest of the races just as bad as hers was. What she didn't realize was that the vorlons were not the enigmatic reclusive weirdoes that they seemed to be, but were actually manipulative Precursors who saw right through her plan and destroyed her ship to stop it. Also, since the vorlons themselves were forced to act openly and directly instead of manipulating events from the shadows as they usually did, Jha'dur herself could be considered a Spanner in the Works.
- JAG: In 1st season episode "Sightings", Colombian drug smugglers use the underground facilities of a supposedly abandoned navy base in Texas where they have a cocaine processing facility without the locals knowing anything about it. Obviously, they didn’t foresee that the disappearance of a young local girl would lead the Navy to send two of its most resourceful investigators and foil the whole operation.
- The Shadow Line:
- Gatehouse gets this in his first encounter with Glickman, when he realises that Glickman knew he was coming in advance and prepared countermeasures; namely, a large bomb, which destroys his shop and almost kills Gatehouse.
- In the next episode this happens to Glickman himself. He contacts his girlfriend not knowing that she's working for Counterpoint. She then stabs him to death.
- In Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger, former The Dragon Damaras has defeated the Gokaiger, capturing Captain Marvelous for execution, killing the others, and letting Lovable Coward Don live out of mercy. Then his plan gets completely derailed when Don actually comes back to mount a rescue, relying upon their little-known Team Pet to rescue Marvelous while he distracts everyone else (and is lampshaded by Marvelous' Evil Former Friend Basco outright saying the trope's name when Don first shows up). And then we find out that Basco only faked killing the other Gokaigers, which he reveals as he literally backstabs Damaras.
- In Blackadder the Third, Edmund is tied up on "an unrealistic grassy knoll" by the highwayman The Shadow, who plans on coming back to kill him later. Just when all hope looks lost, his Bumbling Sidekick Baldrick shows up, wanting to get the Shadow's autograph. Blackadder thanks Baldrick for teaching him an entirely new sensation: being genuinely pleased to see him.
- Salem: Rose claims that she has seen and manipulated everything that has happened, including Mary killing Mercy. Turns out Mary turned Mercy into a witch, and Mercy then swiftly beheads Rose.
- Played for Laughs in Friends when Rachel tries to teach Joey sailing, but finds herself turning into her father in the process; when she figures it out, she laments that she was trying so hard to not become her mother that she never saw this coming.
- In The Flash (2014), Captain Cold says this line after Flash tricked him and Heat Wave into making their freeze ray and flamethrower's beams collide, which canceled them out.
- On the one hand, Game Masters are very often on the receiving end of PC ADD (not AD&D, though the similarity is telling) and are often forced into Railroading the plot. On the other, PC's can be struck by a very creative GM who gleefully goes Off the Rails with them and reprimands misbehavior creatively.
- This happens quite a bit to the Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marine chapter in Warhammer 40,000. They plan any action they take for years, carefully plot out every single possibility... Then their rivals, the Space Wolves, just run in and beat the shit out of them when they least expect it. You'd think they'd learn by now. (The current page image is a parody of this scenario; Tzeench, God of Xanatos Speed Chess, is repeatedly beaten back by the fan-made Angry Marines.)
- One example took place in the Gothic War. Chaos runs in and has the Imperial Navy on the ropes, they're clearly winning with their plans falling perfectly into place. Then out of the blue the Ork pirates which have been pestering the Imperial decide it might be fun to attack Chaos for a while.
- The bread and butter of the Alpha Legion, to the extent where their very existence has been denied by the Imperial Inquisition three times. It's not really clear who's side they're even on.
- There was the time when Craftworld Iyanden was getting swamped by an Ork Waaagh!, forcing them to raise even more Wraiths. Then out of the Webway the Dark Eldar come in to save the Craftworld Eldar, their reason they were amused to the Eldars angst in summoning the dead.
- Happens to virtually everyone in Exalted, especially when Adorjan or the Exalted are involved.
- Chejop Kejak is the poster child for this trope. He led his fellow Sidereals to overthrow the increasingly insane Solar rulers of Creation based on what he was convinced was a prophecy that guaranteed the survival of Creation. Unfortunately for him (and more than 90% of Creation's population), he underestimated the threat posed by beings from outside of Creation, who are by nature Immune to Fate and thus cannot be predicted.
- In Autochthonia, one of the nations implemented a form of currency to keep the Populat happy during a series of high-profile scandals. Now there are illicitly wealthy members of the Populat bribing their way out of their responsibilities, regulator corruption all over the place, counterfeiting rings springing up, and similar chaos, and nobody has any idea what to do about it.
- The Clan Invasion in BattleTech, the Inner Sphere did not expect facing powerful high tech invaders with technology far more advanced than anything they have.
- The impact of the Wii Remote is more one for the industry itself than any in-game thing, but it's pretty much the perfect example. Only Gamespot saw it coming… in an April Fools joke.
- Bob Page from Deus Ex had a plan to become a Physical God by merging with a nigh-omniscient AI that was only mildly impeded by the player nuking his base of operations. It's completely thrown out the window, however, by the AI deciding it wants to merge with the player instead.
- Ol' Bobby seems to have a real problem with AI's. Another AI that his organization was using for anti-terrorist operations went rouge when it classified them as terrorists, then began actively sabotaging their plans. And, of course, he made the classic Villain flop-up by continuously underestimating JC's abilities.
- Calypso sometimes runs into this in Twisted Metal; he doesn't always pick the most dependable players. In fact, the only two games in the series where he doesn't utterly and completely lose at least once are Twisted Metal 3 and Twisted Metal 2012.
- Sweet Tooth tends to do this most often, but he's gotten caught off-guard by others as well. At least four characters turn the tables on him in Twisted Metal 2. Even when he took over Twisted Metal 4, he got his ass handed to him four times (Forced to take DRIVING SAFETY CLASSES, forced to act as chauffeur to an annoyingly crazy family, arrested by a bounty hunter, and trapped in his own Soul Jar).
- Persona 3. After his Reveal as The Chessmaster, Shuji Ikutsuki plans to sacrifice most of the party by forcing Robot Girl Aigis to murder them, in order to bring about The End of the World as We Know It. He's just about to succeed... and at that point, the player is reminded that Ikutsuki forgot to crucify the dog, too.
- And it happens again in Persona 4, if you manage to find the true ending. The game itself works against you here, making you wait until most of the way through the good ending and then ignore two of its attempts to turn you around, that it's really no wonder the true final boss is surprised you got that far.
- And in-universe, Dojima, and especially Naoto, can usually keep up with the Investigation Team's deductions, only to fall short because they weren't aware of the supernatural elements. Naoto starts seeing the full picture after experiencing the TV world for herself, but Dojima refuses to believe in the TV world even in the end, though he does get the basic gist of what happened.
- And the Investigation Team themselves nearly fall prey to Red Herrings from time to time. Of particular note is the fact that there were two people stuffing others into the TV world, and the real culprit is, of all people, Adachi.
- In Command & Conquer, Kane's always a step ahead. Of everyone. GDI, Scrin, his own generals. Then in Command & Conquer 3 he undergoes a Villainous Breakdown when Kilian's forces ally with GDI. And then in Kane's Wrath, when it's revealed just how proficient Kane is at playing a Gambit Roulette, he's yet again surprised when Alexa reveals to have tried to destroy LEGION, and tricked Kane into executing Kilian, out of her devotion to Kane. That said, he still wins out in the end.
- In the First game its seemed as though Nod has successfully defamed GDI and caused the UN to cut off all funding from them leaving them vulnerable for their forces. But instead it was all a Batman Gambit by GDI to trick Nod into lowering their guard, when Nod forces began attacking GDI bases they ended up facing fully armed forces.
- Planescape: Torment has a backstory example: Fhjull Forked-Tongue, Lawful Evil devil manages to trap a deva, a very incarnation of truth and Lawful Good, only to have it undone by the fact that the deva lied to him. The result of this (which is never precisely explained) is that Fhjull is now trapped into performing charity to any who asks.
- In Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door, this is basically Grodus' reaction to the reveal that his base's AI TEC has been helping Princess Peach subvert his plans.
Grodus: Never in my most paranoid moments did I imagine a computer would betray me.
- In BlazBlue: Calamity Trigger, Hakumen says a variation of this in his Arcade path when Nu-13 turns out to be the ninth fight instead of the last one.
- Hazama runs afoul of this trope in Continuum Shift Extend, variant 3X. Here's the rundown.
- Hazama, once again, runs afoul of this trope in Chronophantasma - this time, Type 4, against the exact same perpetrator. Got time to kill?
- In BioShock, Fontaine's plot to get Jack to kill Andrew Ryan to let him take over Rapture went of without a hitch....except for those Little Sisters....
- Final Fantasy X:
- No one seemed to see Yuna and her Guardians coming, least of all Lady Yunalesca, who has never been challenged before and was certainly not expecting to get the shit kicked out of her horrifying medusa-head form, thereby destroying the traditional (but not, as she claimed, "only") way to defeat Sin.
- Nobody predicted that Sin itself, or rather Jecht, was capable of setting into motion events that would lead to its destruction.
- In Final Fantasy XIII, Barthandelus' plan to turn the l'Cie into the instruments of Cocoon's destruction hinges on them breaking when he slams them into the Despair Event Horizon, inducing them to follow their Focus and using the power of Ragnarok to kill Orphan. Fang comes close in the end, but not close enough: Barthandelus' failure to recognize humans as more than mere tools is the undoing of his schemes, as the l'Cie ultimately save Cocoon by subverting their Focus.
- Sun Li, Glorious Strategist for the Jade Empire. Yeah, marvelous plan. Flawless, right down to deliberately putting flaws in the Player Character's fighting style. But...he really didn't expect that The Water Dragon was running an equally good one to counter it.
- In Mass Effect despite the Reapers being terrifyingly thorough when it comes to wiping out all life in the galaxy, they still can't foresee every outcome:
Shepard: If you'd told me this morning that a toothbrush was going to save the Normandy, I'd have been very sceptical.
- The Reapers didn't plan for the Protheans to stop the keepers from activating the Citadel Relay. Nor did they anticipate the keepers evolving in manner that could be exploited to this end. This is noteworthy as it also relied on the Reapers only weakness: their expectations. They expected the Protheans to futilely fight until extinction. They didn't expect them to accept their fate and Fling a Light into the Future, essentially using their last fighting chance to give future sentient life better odds of survival.
- The last several dozen cycles, at least, have had at least some small part of their membership recognize the same thing, sending forward the ever-evolving blueprints for what would become the Crucible while the Reapers remain blissfully unaware. The Catalyst points this out when Shepard meets it; the Crucible is a sign that the Reapers' cycle is breaking down and needs to be replaced by a "new solution".
- Harbinger recognized Commander Shepard as a major threat, and had him/her eliminated. He didn't count on Cerberus being able to resurrect Shepard, rebuild the Normandy, and point him/her right at the Collectors.
- The original Shadow Broker didn't see the betrayal by his Always Chaotic Evil yahg agent until it was too late.
- In a Mass Effect novel, the Illusive Man captures Paul Grayson, a rogue Cerberus agent, and has him implanted with Reaper nanites, effectively turning him into a Saren-type Husk. He keeps Grayson sedated and has Kai Leng on standby to kill Grayson if necessary. Then the research station is attacked by a turian squad sent to stop Cerberus and rescue Grayson. The Illusive Man's plan is ruined, and he barely escapes with his life. Unfortunately, the turians experience this as well. They rescue Grayson but have no idea that he's already under Reaper control.
- In Mass Effect 3, Javik reveals that the Protheans had actually intended the Asari to lead the Galaxy against the Reapers in the next Cycle; influencing their early civilisation in order to give them a decent headstart. Upon waking up from 50,000 years of hibernation, Javik is naturally taken aback to discover that they're sitting on their hands, while it's Humanity who are leading the charge.
- In the Citadel DLC, the Mysterious Figure is remarkably prone to this: not bothering to trap Glyph and allowing Traynor to grab her toothbrush before leaving both come back to bite said Figure in remarkably elaborate ways later on.
- In fairness to said figure, well:
- Mass Effect 2 squad member Mordin Solus relies on this trope to give him an advantage when going into a dangerous situation. He states in a conversation with Shepard that people see species like turians and asari as obvious threats because of their strength and capabilities, but because he's a salarian (amphibious lizard people who are comparatively physically weak as a species, yet intellectually superior), his enemies "*sharp inhale* never see me coming". Extra points for the Slasher Smile with that last bit, and for being ex-special ops and plenty dangerous in his own right. Omega quickly learned not to judge him by his diminished physique and spastic behavior (especially after he displayed the bodies of several mercs who tried to extort money out of him outside his ghetto clinic as a warning to others).
- The Reapers didn't plan for the Protheans to stop the keepers from activating the Citadel Relay. Nor did they anticipate the keepers evolving in manner that could be exploited to this end. This is noteworthy as it also relied on the Reapers only weakness: their expectations. They expected the Protheans to futilely fight until extinction. They didn't expect them to accept their fate and Fling a Light into the Future, essentially using their last fighting chance to give future sentient life better odds of survival.
- In Tales of Symphonia, Yuan has a foolproof plan for getting hold of the Plot Coupon that will allow him to save the world: all he has to do is threaten the son of the person who can unlock the seal on the Summon Spirit that grants it. It probably would have worked, if the Big Bad hadn't been traveling with the party incognito...
- Vampire: The Masquerade – Bloodlines - Pity poor Sebastian LaCroix. For an ineffectual-seeming idiot Prince, he manages to make surprisingly good use of the PC and then turn the entire city against you when he doesn't need you anymore. Problem is, there was simply no way he could count on you defeating the Blood Hunt and any and all other opposition by yourself, Caine empowering you to defeat his Dominate, and Jack setting him up the bomb. Okay, the first might have been something he should have expected, but the rest almost amounts to a Diabolus ex Machina from his perspective.
- Ace Attorney:
- Several of these nail Manfred von Karma. He didn't see Larry Butz arriving with key information, didn't expect Phoenix to get useful information out of a parrot even after retraining it to destroy the most useful, and, most importantly, he spends the entire case manipulating the Judge... but never expects the Judge to truly hold devotion to law and order over any fear he may have of him. This last one screws von Karma over more than everything else.
- Also, in Miles Edgeworth's game, Quercus Alba is unbeatable, until a series of these brings him down. Notable in that multiple completely unpredictable (from his perspective) events are required for him to be arrested.
- In Kingdoms Of Amalur Reckoning Tirnoch created the Fateless One so that he/she could free Tirnoch from her prison that she was destined to hold her forever. This part works perfectly. What Tirnoch didn't see coming was the Fateless One being powerful enough to kill her.
- Pokemon Platinum's Cyrus captures the Legendary Pokemon of Time and Space, and prepares to use them to destroy the universe to end human suffering. Unbeknownst to him, they were two-thirds of a trio, and the Legendary Pokemon of Matter/Antimatter, long ago banned from reality and stricken from mythology out of fear, isn't too pleased with him for this...
- In Pokémon Black and White, Ghetsis was not expecting the protagonist to be able to summon the other Legendary Dragon of Unova, nor that the player's relationship to their Pokemon really was friendship, rather than using Pokemon as tools, nor that this second revelation would cause N to doubt his own cause and challenge the player character over the validity of their beliefs. As a result, the player ultimately befriends N, and Ghetsis's plan to conquer Unova through Fantasy Gun Control falls to pieces. And so does he.
- In Skyrim, the Thalmor were quite confident the Civil War in Skyrim would ultimately end in their favour. If the Imperials won, their Thalmor allies would be free to continue their efforts to infiltrate, influence and undermine a province of the Empire. If the Stormcloaks won, the Empire would be weakened significantly, recall their troops and leaving Skyrim wide open for the Aldmeri Dominion to launch an invasion. What they didn't see coming was the return of Alduin the World-Eater, the resurrection of the Dragons, and the arrival of the Dragonborn.
- The Dragonborn can potentially end up throwing a huge wrench into the Thalmor's plans for Skyrim by siding with either faction: either they face a reunited and re-invigorated Empire, or a still fairly powerful and not-being-continually-drained Cyrodiil and a rather powerful and very hostile independent Skyrim, and either winner also gets a new ally in the form of a Physical God.
- Hyperdimension Neptunia Victory: Mr. Badd's plan to neutralize all the goddesses in Gamindustri worked flawlessly, leaving him and his organization free to move in and take power. He didn't count on a foreign CPU to show up and derail the step of the plan.
- In Silent Hill, Dahlia didn't count on Kaufmann having more than one vial of aglaophotis.
- In Fallout: New Vegas, the Independent Path ends with the 4 year-long-struggle between the Legion and NCR for control over the Mojave, as well as the 200-year-old plans of Mr House, completely derailed by one lone package Courier.
- While Mr House, the NCR, the Legion or Yes Man send the Courier to parley with the various minor factions to rally support for their side in the second Battle of Hoover Dam, the one faction none of them expected to get was an elderly contingent of Enclave Remnants from Navarro, whom your companion Arcade can introduce you to.
- In the original Homeworld the Taidaan Empire fell due nobody anticipating the Kushan Mothership escaping the Kharakian Genocide, creating a powerful fleet and invading from the unguarded border as they were busy with a large rebellion.
- Also, the rebellion itself. The emperor and his advisors had expected the people to be cowed in awe from the emperor's ability to see the Kushans, descendants of their ancestral enemy the Higaarans, violate the treaty preventing them from developing again hyperspace technology, and cheer upon their final distruction in the Kharakian Genocide. Instead the people realized the Kushans had forgot the treaty and were not hostile, and the Kharakian Genocide sparked the long-brewing rebellion that the emperor was planning to prevent with this act.
- This Darths & Droids strip neatly showcases how PC's can become incredibly paranoid of these dangers (make sure to read the comments at the bottom).
- Looking for Group: This strip.
Beholder: Thus it was written...The Archmage: This was not supposed to happen.
- The Order of the Stick: "You know, the first two, I probably should've seen coming. The leprechaun costume? Not so much."
- The identity of the champion.
Thog: thog is the Champion, thog's friends! And thog will keep fighting to the end!
- The identity of the champion.
- Happens all the time in Sluggy Freelance. Often followed by Riff's Catch Phrase, "Let me check my notes."
- One particularly memorable moment is an inversion.
Riff: Torg, why are there pants on the floor?Torg: They're my emergency pants.Riff: ...why do you have emergency pants?Torg: I don't know, but in every situation I could think up, I was glad to have them.
- One particularly memorable moment is an inversion.
- In Girl Genius, no character ever gets to have everything go according to plan. Something always happens just when you least expect it. They can only be better or worse at being on top of the chaos.
- S.S.D.D, the Oracle is usually successful in his Gambit Roulettes due to the fact that he was designed to make accurate predictions, but apparently Time Travel throws him off.
- Kale Williams utters those exact words in the Quetza Drake's Furthia High comic, when Campy shows up to the school dance with a male date.
- Ashley averts it when she calmly replies, "I did."
- In an XKCD comic, some nerds figure out how to end all relationship drama (via a mathematic equation, naturally), but upon testing their theory in the real world, all the relationship drama, in fact, SPIKES, leading one to say "Holy shit... people are complicated!
- Bob and George:
- The defunct webcomic Filthy Lies had one character daydream a Self Insert fic where he was a Jerkass Stu (using Felix Felicis, for example, to have a threesome with Hermione and Ginny) in the events of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince...who, during the climax, ended up screwing everything up so that all the good guys died. He even took the big moment away from Snape by accidentally bumping Dumbledore off the top of the tower with poor broom handling before Snape could perform Avada Kedavra.
Snape: I did not see that coming.
- In El Goonish Shive, when Abe disarmed the elf. Anybody who forgets he's fighting a wizard after having to overcome his spells just to get there deserves to be spammed by exploding crows on the spot.
- A chain of these in Alanna. Tristan has forcibly bonded OB, the god of lightning and dissection, to himself, and EB, the god of Frost and Destruction, to the protagonist. All he needs to do is capture the protagonist, and he pretty much wins. He knows that the protagonist has a lightning sprite that can absorb his electrical attacks to become stronger, but considers it to be a non-factor because sprites are easily banished. He also knows that EB's creations will obey her, but isn't worried because he has a small army of Amalgams, and also knows that OB's creations can only function under OB's orders. However, he was completely unaware of several important facts: firstly, OB's creations had a small degree of autonomy, and had built a clone of OB to guide them; Tristan didn't know about this because Fake!OB was non-functional, but the protagonist managed to get it operational. In return, Fake!OB sent OB's creations against Tristan for the final battle, and also gave the protagonist's lightning sprite a warding that made it impossible for Tristan to banish. lastly, it gave her a means to communicate with the imprisoned Real!OB. Tristan's reaction to this is absolutely priceless. More importantly however, Tristan is unaware that there was a complication during EB's bonding. At the start of the story, "Spirit Guides" (Actually the readers, who give the protagonist suggestions on what to do) were bonded to the protagonist, occupying the place where EB was supposed to go, meaning that EB is actually bound to the readers, instead of the protagonist. Since we can sever our connection with the protagonist at any time, the readers are essentially provided with a big red button labeled "Screw Tristan's plans six ways to Sunday." And Tristan certainly couldn't have predicted the readers using this information to prove to the original OB that Tristan's plan couldn't work, and that this would cause OB to take advantage of Tristan's unstable mental state when he tried to go One-Winged Angel to leave his body.
- In Sinfest, Lil' Evil flips off God and runs off. God asks him where exactly he thought he could hide.
- In Homestuck, sprites are privy to all of the information needed for a successful Sburb run, and seers are designed to help win the game with intense knowledge of a specific subject. So, the seer-turned-sprite known as Rosesprite has absolutely no idea why their creation is even remotely useful, and none of the other sprites nor seers have a clue either.
- At DeviantArt, even something as simple as going to do some lower body workout can have Unknown Unknowns, as seen in "Refreshments" where two women get a drink of water on the way and transform into mermaids. ("You think they'll let us use the pool then?")
- In The Salvation War, this is the downfall of several figures in the story, not least of which include the antagonists Satan and Yahweh, while in contrast much of human military tech shown in the story is concerned with trying to prevent this. In particular, General of the Armies David Petraeus is shown on several occasions accounting for known unknowns.
- Despite all of the completely ludicrous things they managed to pull off in Dr. Horrible, nobody was expecting Bad Horse to be an actual horse.
- In the "40K Rejects" series by Mini War Gaming dot com, in Episode 3 (The Tale of an Ork), Captain Slaughter and co. are looking for the five Ork Shokk Attack Guns. They capture several Orks in combat, and Slaughter interrogates them one by one. The first few are gibbering idiots, but the third is quite articulate. His intelligence and knowledge intrigue Slaughter, who is subsequently shocked to discover that the Ork is actually "the Warboss in disguise"!. Slaughter's reaction to it is priceless:
Slaughter: Out of all the unforeseen things I've ever seen!
- Ranger has multiple times fallen victim to the first type in Comic Fury Werewolf. He's several times forgotten key facts which are public information due to focusing too hard on the details. One of the worst is how he's twice forgotten about the vigilantes, and even forgot about the alpha's ability to convert until he was dead and too late to warn the village.
- In Twitch Plays Pokémon Red, the Mob came up with a cunning plan to make sure that Bird Jesus didn't get released or deposited when they went to the PC. If they fainted everyone in the party except for Bird Jesus, he couldn't be put in the PC because then Red would have no usable Pokemon, right? As it should so happen, this leads to variety five - in the first generation of Pokemon, you can deposit the only Pokemon in your party... leading to Red managing to black out inside a Pokemon Centre!
- Happens quite a bit in Johnny Test, leading to a character using this line.
- In an episode of Superman: The Animated Series, Brainiac is surprised when he blasts off Batman's suit and Superman is underneath it, having taken on the guise of Batman with Bruce Wayne having gone missing (due to Brainiac kidnapping and brainwashing him for his plans). His reaction is typically understated...
Brainiac: "Kal-El! ...This occurrence was highly improbable."
- Likewise, in "Superman's Pal" Metallo's plan was thwarted because he didn't consider the Unknown Known of the hostage trying to help his intended victim.
- Amanda Waller in Justice League Unlimited.
Lex Luthor: Did you really think you could take me all by yourself?Amanda Waller: Actually, yeah. But on the off chance I might've been wrong...[The founding Leaguers have entered through the window]Flash: Ta-da.
Joker: Have to admit, I didn't see that one coming...
- Which is immediately followed by another one: It turns out that Brainiac is underneath Lex's suit. And skin.
- Then, of course, there was the episode "Wild Cards." In the middle of Joker's bomb threat on Vegas being aired as a reality TV show, Batman manages to talk to Harley Quinn alone. He insinuates that Joker seems awfully close to Ace, the new henchgirl. Harley storms off toward her puddin' in a jealous rage, but not before throwing and landing a solid punch on Batman for enlightening her. Cue to a shot of Joker staring blankly at a television screen after the exchange is over.
- Avatar: The Last Airbender: Azula, the Dangerously Genre Savvy Chessmaster and expertly Magnificent Bastard, "miscalculated" one thing, possibly in her life: Mai's loyalty to Zuko.
- In the Alternate Universe short "School Time Shipping", Zuko, understandably, utters this when Katara reveals her choice of date to the dance: the Blue Spirit, Zuko's alter ego.
- Fire Lord Ozai faces a couple in the last episode: an Unknown Known Aang regaining control of the Avatar State and then and Unknown Unknown Energy Bending.
- Korra has a habit of landing in the middle of #3. Because she has no information on her enemy (and very few means of getting it), every episode or two, her enemies pull out something she didn't know about and proceed to hit her with The Worf Effect. The most brutal example was when Tarrlok turned out to be not only a bloodbender, but able to bloodbend under any moon phase, something established to be impossible in the original series.
- In an episode of The Super Hero Squad Show, shapeshifting mutant Mystique infiltrates the Squad as SHIELD agent Black Widow. The plan to get access to the heroes' store of plot devices almost works, but then villain Screamin' Mimi turns out to be undercover SHIELD agent Songbird. Doctor Doom just quietly observes "I didn't see that one coming" and flies away through the ceiling.
- The Simpsons
- The episode "Homie the Clown" has Homer unable to get the thought of Krusty's Clown College out of his head, even imitating the mashed potato scene from Close Encounters of the Third Kind (except he sculpts a circus tent) and seeing his family in clown makeup and waving ads. Eventually he stands up and declares "I'm tired of you people holding me back! I'm going to clown college!" Bart simply remarks, "I don't think any of us expected him to say that."
- Invoked in the episode "Bart's Friend Falls in Love" where Bart and Milhouse get into a giant fight. Groping around for a weapon, Bart finds Milhouse's new Magic 8-Ball and clocks him upside the head with it. As he looks at the shattered hunk of plastic in his hand, Bart remarks "I bet [it] didn't see that coming."
- In the episode "500 Keys", a secret Superintendent Chalmers and Principal Skinner have been keeping for years is exposed due to Homer buying a returned wedding cake and Maggie locking herself in the car. Skinner says they'd planned for the cake, but not the baby. Chalmers insists he should have seen it coming, even though Maggie hadn't been born at the time.
- One episode of Adventures of Sonic the Hedgehog, "Grounder the Genius", had the eponymous bumbling robot minion accidentally end up with Dr. Robotnik's stolen Super Genius Program in his head; he instantly transforms into an uber-chessmaster with enough smarts to incapacitate Sonic and decide that the bad doctor has no place in his own schemes for world domination. In the end, he has Sonic and Tails on the ropes with a lightning generator and announces that he's thought of every possible occurrence... except the one where fellow bumbling robot minion Scratch shows up trying to help and accidentally knocks his head off.
- In an episode of Thunder Cats, Mumm-Ra and the evil Mutants had succeeded in capturing ALL the Thundercats - except Snarf. When the Mutants discuss whether they should get him too, they all laugh at the notion that little, dorky Snarf could in any way possibly affect their plans now that they've essentially won. Little did they realize Snarf's talent for communicating with animals, as well as being so small and weak to be ignored to begin with, turned out to be their undoing.
- It was almost a Running Gag in Kim Possible how many bad guys would have Kim and/or Ron absolutely nailed to the wall, fail to account for Rufus chewing through their bonds or hitting the self-destruct for the Kill Sat, and then are absolutely stunned that their plans were foiled in the end. And they usually never learned otherwise no matter how many times it happened to the same villains. In an early episode Drakken did manage to spot Rufus in time to foil him (because a mind controlled Kim pointed it out) but he winds up underestimating Kim's brothers instead when he doesn't believe they have a portable version of a device that (as seen earlier in the episode) is normally the size of a refrigerator.
- This was one of Hunter's Catch Phrases in Road Rovers.
Hunter: "I would NOT have predicted this!"
- "Yet another unexpected twist."
- The events of the first Futurama Christmas Episode lead Fry to lament, "I never thought it would end this way... gunned down by Santa Claus. Honestly, I didn't see it coming!"
- My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic:
- Applejack says this in "Swarm of the Century", when the voracious parasprites, instead of eating her apple crop, ate her barn instead.
- The two things that Discord hadn't planned for were Celestia breaking Twilight out of her Heroic BSOD by sending her the letters her student had sent her the entire previous season and Twilight somehow reuniting her friends and breaking them out of Discord's Mind Rape so they could use the Elements Of Harmony to defeat him. The former is likely an Unknown Unknown he couldn't have expected and the latter is a Known Unknown: he knew about who was involved but hadn't foreseen how they could do anything to stop him at that point.
- After Chrysalis's true form was revealed in front of Celestia and her plans explained, it was obvious that Celestia wasn't going to stay still about it. What wasn't obvious was that the queen of the Changelings had already gathered enough strength to beat the Princess. Not even Chrysalis expected that!
- Done heartbreakingly so in Twilight's Kingdom Part 2 when Discord turns against the other ponies and captures the Mane Six (save for Twilight). Discord mentions that they should have seen it coming, only for a heartbroken Fluttershy to admit she hadn't at all — she was so convinced her friendship with him was ironclad, she never thought he'd turn his back on her. This turns into an Ironic Echo when Discord himself is betrayed by Lord Tirek and Applejack tells him the same exact thing.
- In one South Park episode, when Kenny died, Stan didn't react the usual way. (i.e. shouting "Oh, my God! They killed Kenny!") Instead, he said, "Well, who didn't see that coming?" Played straighter in another episode where the plot has already been resolved, and then in the last scene a giant bird busts through the ceiling and eats Kenny, prompting a flat "What the fuck?"
- Discussed by Edward's friend (voiced by Samuel Jackson) in The Boondocks. He talks about how there are known unknowns, things that we know that we don't know, and unknown unknowns, namely things that we don't know that didn't know, in order to justify how the plan that they had to capture a killer was so far going badly.
- In the second to last episode of Teen Titans, during the Final Battle Jinx switches sides. Cyborg comments "I didn't see that coming". Control Freak nods in agreement while being pinned down by Cyborg.
- In an episode of King of the Hill, Connie runs into the house sobbing and says that Bobby broke up with hernote . Kahn's immediate response is "Wow, you just taught me the meaning of 'total surprise'."
- In an episode of Foster's Home for Imaginary Friends has Bloo running against Mr. Herriman for the position of governing the house. This happens in response to Bloo's slander of simply saying "Herriman smalls like poo!".
Herriman: But that's mudslinging! (gets mud thrown in his face) Should have seen that coming.
- In the Ed, Edd n Eddy episode, Boom Boom Out Goes the Ed, Ed says this after Eddy throw the TV Set at him for can realizing there’s a blackout.
- Junior, intent on embarrassing Ted who hadn't brought back The Lost Shrine of Zagawa, is stunned (along with everyone else at the press conference) when George knocks down a dinosaur skeleton. "Wow. I didn't see that coming."
- In the final story arc of Once Upon a Time... Space, both the Humanoids and the combined fleet of the Confederation of Omega were completely caught by surprise when The Precursors decided to show up and made a star go nova right as the Humanoid armada passed by. Goes close to Ass Pull, except one of the Precursors appeared saltuarily during the series to comfort Psi when she was in trouble, and the ship that shows in the final episode had already appeared in the first one and showed their technological superiority.
- The submarine USS San Francisco once ran smack into an Underwater MOUNTAIN. Apparently, the captain and crew should have seen that coming if they were doing their jobs right (the captain ended up relieved of duty). So that would make this a case of unknown knowns.
- During World War I, the Austro-Hungarian battleship SMS (Seiner Majestät Schiff) Szent István, which translates as "His Majesty's Ship Saint Stephen", was torpedoed and sunk by two Italian motor torpedo boats that just happened to pass in the area. This goes under the Unknown Knowns category, as the Austro-Hungarians knew that the Italians used motor torpedo boats and considered them a threat due their tendency to attack their fleet in the harbours. They just didn't expect them to be able to torpedo a battleship in the middle of the sea in spite of a destroyer and torpedo boat screen (and in fact thought it had been submarines until the Italians started bragging).
- The Italians tended to be involved in this during the war. When they declared neutrality in 1914 they caught everyone by surprise, as Italy was in a military alliance with Austria-Hungary and Germany at the time. Only, it covered defensive wars, and technically Austria-Hungary attacked first. Falls into False Assumptions, as everyone had thought Italy and Austria-Hungary had managed to put aside their border dispute (Italy hadn't).
- In 1916 the Italians were completely caught by surprise by the Austro-Hungarians attacking: doing some math they had figured the enemy didn't have the manpower to fight Russia on one front and mount an offensive on the other, and the Austro-Hungarian nearly broke through. Then the Austro-Hungarians were caught on the receiving end of this: the Russians attacked en-masse, forcing them to move all the attacking troops on the other side of the country. Both falls into Unknowns Known: the Italians had noticed the massing of troops but dismissed it, and the Austrians should have seen the Russian attacking that fast.
- Italian artillery was another False Assumption: given the state of Italian industry, everyone expected the Italians to be unable to produce a lot of guns, only for them to field the second largest artillery park of any power in the war, to the Austro-Hungarians' growing horror.
- The Battle of Caporetto contained a few of these. First the Austro-Hungarians and Germans broke through due the Unknown Known of the new German tactics and the False Assumption gas didn't work in high mountain, helping the breakthrough. Then the Austro-Hungarians ran into the Unknowns Unknown of the multiple reserve defensive lines that Cadorna and some of his subordinates had passed the previous year predisposing just in case: while a Modern Major General wasted an artillery trap that could have annihilated a prong of the assault and the Italians (whose army had almost completely dissolved under the pressure of the enemy attack and the low morale, with many soldiers deciding they would just return home) didn't get to the Tagliamento river in time to stop the enemy, by the Piave river the Italian soldiers had decided that the invader was to be defeated, reformed the army and held the line, and on the north the Austro-Hungarians discovered that a good chunk of the immense Italian artillery park had been placed on a mountain they couldn't cut off from supplies.
- 1918 has the Battle of Vittorio Veneto, a massive case False Assumption. By that point everyone had figured that the Allies would win the war, and the plan was for Austria to negotiate peace and Germany to fight through the winter to get better peace conditions. Then the Italians surprised everyone (including their own allies) by launching a sudden and massive offensive that they weren't supposed to have the morale and will for. Thanks to this and the Italian artillery being brought Up to Eleven, when the Italians were finished the Austro-Hungarian army had been annihilated as a coherent force and was running, the Austro-Hungarian Empire had barely managed to surrender unconditionally before collapsing, and Germany had to beg for peace before the Italians marched through Austria to attack them from the south.
- Finally, the very last of the war: by the time the armistice on the Italian front took effect and the Austro-Hungarian Empire had started collapsing, the Austro-Hungarian Army had reformed as a coherent fighting force. This falls under False Assumptions, as everybody had assumed that no army could do this... In spite of the Italian Army doing almost the very same thing exactly a year before. The Italian high command was very happy that the armistice had taken effect as the Austro-Hungarian Army proved they had outlasted the empire they served and laid down their arms (not surrendered) a regiment or division at time.
- Italians kept doing this long after World War II. Italian Navy's special ops were responsible for wrecking two British battleships, the HMS Valiant and HMS Queen Elizabeth in 1941, in the middle of Alexandria harbor and seriously weakening the strength of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean for more than a year. So common were such activities that, when the Soviet warship Novorossyisk (formerly Italian battleship Giulio Cesare, taken over by the Russians after World War II) blew up at Sevastopol in 1956, Russians suspected that the Italians might have pulled it off as a sort of revenge, although no firm evidence of this ever emerged.
- Overlapping with Unknown Knowns and False Assumption, the sinking of the Titanic has this trope written all over it.
- Technically untrue with regards to the intelligence services. It wasn't so much that 9/11 was unexpected, at least by counter-terrorism professionals - between them, the CIA and FBI had enough intel to sweep the attackers up, but for "the Wall", a bureaucratic device that limited cooperation between the two agencies - Mohammed Atta even put the actual name of his hotel on his landing card! It is just that the attack happened before people expected it to, so more a case of Known Unknown. Of course, the US public was totally blindsided.
- Related: US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's attempt to explain the "Unknown Unknowns" concept at a wartime press conference was widely mocked by the ill-informed and malicious. Of course, as this was regarding the apparently absent WMD's in Iraq, the criticism may have been warranted. Those phrases became so strongly associated with Rumsfeld that he even named his published memoirs "Known and Unknown".note
- Mount Vesuvius was the first experience Roman civilization had with a full-fledged volcanic eruption. They had to invent a word to describe what happened.
- Emperor Justinian of the Byzantine Empire, almost did manage to reconquer the Roman Empire. But The Plague arrived.
- The end of the era of isolation of Japan in the 19th century happened because of this: The Japanese assumed that no European superpower was going to waste their valuable resources in trying to invade Japan after the country isolated himself in the medieval era, since they would have to go around Africa just to avoid the Middle East (then one of the few ways to reach the Far East, and in that era, it was ruled by the Ottoman Empire) and by the time the Europeans could reach Japan, the Japanese could have enough time to fight back. The Tokugawa Shogunate didn't consider the American continent, as their knowledge of the world was limited to Europe and Asia, and since the United States didn't have to worry about dealing with Africa and the Middle East, instead traveling straight through the Pacific Ocean to Japan, it was too late for the Tokugawas when Commodore Matthew Perry forced the Japanese to open to the rest of the world.note This happened again in World War II when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and didn't expect the U.S. and the rest of the world to fight against them to the death. This time, the result was even worse.
- And when Japan had managed to accept that this was total war and had prepared for fighting to the bitter end against the Allies, the United States surprised them yet again by carrying a bit of research based on a theory by a German Jewish scientist to its conclusion, after Germany itself failed to do so. The rest is history.
- The whole rise of the Internet (the commercial one) can be considered one for the entire human race, as nobody considered how important the net was going to get in so few years, and many companies and even entire industries sunk thanks to, and also because of the Internet, to the extent that many governments and industries now seem hellbent on trying to tame it with mixed results.
- All the Scandinavian countries were into this in 1814. In Norway, nobody expected the Treaty of Kiel, being handed over to Sweden without questioning. In Sweden and The British Empire, nobody dreamt of the Norwegians actually going as far as declaring independence, actively resisting a union with Sweden. The Norwegian Constituent Assembly made a drastic impact on every setup made in January 1814, changing the rules completely come November that year.
- If you watch the video of the Army-McCarthy hearings, it is obvious that "Tailgunner Joe" is completely blindsided by Joseph N. Welch's "have you no sense of decency" speech. He can barely speak for a few moments.
- The whole Ukraine crisis between Russia and the rest of the world was completely unexpected for everyone, since it reverted the situation to the Cold War-era levels and it's now causing LOTS of unexpected changes around the world.
- In the "Wild West", an unarmed sheriff marched up to a very-much armed man and demanded he surrender his guns. The man laughed. The sheriff knocked him out with a punch to the face.
- Two Subversions happened in Italy in 1970 with the Golpe Borghese. The Golpe's main armed component came from the Corpo Forestale dello Stato (the park rangers. To be fair, they have light infantry firepower) because nobody would expect it... Except the government not only knew of the attempted coup, they knew exactly who was trying it, and the army was fully mobilized and waiting for them. Also, the government expected the conspirators wouldn't see the government suppressing the coup and using it as excuse to declare martial laws, but their leader Junio Borghese found out and aborted the coup just in time.
- According to the theories of the fringe historian Viktor Suvorov, the entire World War II was basically Stalin's plan to weaken Europe and strike out once everyone were busy fighting each other; Stalin was focused completely on offense and was forewarned that Hitler might attack him, but completely dismissed the possibility ("Unknown Known") because he figured that surely even Hitler wasn't stupid or insane enough to attack the USSR.
- The United States military tends to occasionally come up with very strange, and sometimes fantastical military exercises. Some of these involve simulations of attacks by aliens, ghosts, or even potentially invading their closest allies. It's both an acknowledgement of and attempt to subvert category 3. Either they have an actual plan should any of the scenarios actually occur and make it at least Category 2, or else to find the right officers and NCOs who can at least keep up with WTF Level 9000 events and think outside the box enough to maintain an effective force and not completely lose it when things go mental. They're apparently quite fun to participate in compared to more typical exercises. It's very likely that other militaries practice similar plans, at least to prevent a complete disaster when they didn't see that coming.
- The Mexican military has already done this as well, except with a sole, obvious exception, and for a very good reason: While they are completely aware about the possibility of being invaded by the U.S., they don't have specific plans about how to counter such kind of invasion, taking into account the military might of the American armed forces and the previous experiences regarding this, because almost every Mexican knows that the U.S. would cross the Moral Event Horizon if they try to invade Mexico ever again. Even if the Mexicans know the U.S. could win such a war effortlessly, the worldwide backdraft would be so big that even traditional American allies possibly would refuse to help the U.S. in such a case or even going against them. Also, many Mexicans know the only way such event could happen if the U.S. turns into a dictatorship or into an authoritarian government.