My "Divided States" setting: plausible scenario or strawman political?

I'm working on a Divided States of America setting, set about three decades into the future, approximately 15 years after the nation splintered. It's working for me so far, but I'm a little concerned about turning the nations into caricatures of the regions or Strawman Political utopias or dystopias.

20 Minutes into the Future,the rampant "Us versus Them" mentality in DC, along with a growing religious fervor, eventually lead to the Church of Latter-day Saints and all their members to declare themselves independent from the laws of America, essentially causing Utah to secede. Just as the government prepares to deal with this, Texas (ain't it always?) realizes its late to the secession game for a change, and declares independence.

In the ensuing chaos, states begin picking sides. At some point, transcontinental communications, including internet, are severed between the newly formed nations. While this is happening, the military men and women start arriving back home from the war(s) overseas, ready to defend the U.S. government, only to find it basically no longer exists. Most of them go on to join the nations of their hometowns or ideological orientation, while the rest try to "take back America" on their own in what became known as "Uncle Sam's Rebellion". They eventually fail, with most surrendering, but not all have given up by the time of the story.

In the end, there are at least four major American nations now, from east to west:

• The Federal States of America (or Federal Districts of Columbia, not sure yet; the Fed, for short): The east coast, from Maine to peninsular Florida, along with parts of the upper Midwest. Despite having the capital in Washington, D.C., this is NOT the American government we know today. Could be something of a Police State, with elements of the classic Cyberpunk dystopian societies, where Big Brother Is Watching without a doubt. While its people have a relatively high standard of living, its somewhat overcrowded, with limited agricultural land, and not very welcoming to any refugees from its neighbor...

• The Heartland States of America: the states that joined Texas in declaring independence. Probably has the largest territory of the nations, with territories from northern Mexico (more on that latter) to parts of Illinois and Michigan, and as far east as the Appalachians and Alabama, as well as the Florida Panhandle. While not quite "Jesusland" or the Deep South Incarnate, it is a borderline Fascist nation with most of the population trapped in Modern Stasis. Overcrowded prisons have led to the adoption of "Indentured Servitude", basically temporary slavery that, while officially isn't race-based, doesn't always work that way in practice. Religion is tolerated as long as it comes in line with the official guidelines (read: Christian), and homosexuality is illegal (a major plot point). To the west, borders...

• Deseret: Originating with the Mormom controlled Utah, now covers most of the southwest and states immediately east of the Rockies. While the Mormons are still the main power, and in many ways a Church Militant nation, it is also a beacon of religious tolerance. By following their 11th Article of Faith (quoted at the top here), they have come to accept the faiths of others, mostly refugees from the Heartland. They don't always get along, however, and zealots are in ample supply in all denominations. At some point, these zealots declared Las Vegas to be a Wretched Hive and burned The Strip to the ground, with the streets now paved in melted neon lights and plastic poker chips. Arizona and New Mexico have joined only recently, after Texan and Heartland militias decided to march through their states on their way to invert Mexico Called; They Want Texas Back by "liberating" parts of Mexico (which is probably in worse shape than America at this point). Fun Fact: Deseret now owns Cheyenne Mountain, and all the other nations are a little nervous that a bunch of religious fundamentalists have access to NORAD, whether it still works or not.

• The Pacific States of America: California, Oregon, Washington. In the early days after communications were cut, these states tried to follow the lead of D.C. as best they could, but when it became clear this wasn't working out, they started their own country. Like the Fed back east, they have a problem with overcrowding, but have yet to resort to anything too draconian to keep it in check, and could be considered Post-Cyberpunk to the Fed's Cyberpunk. Possibly socialist, with a large international presence compared to the other nations, particularly close ties to China (the President is Chinese-American).

• Hawaii and Alaska: Slightly less sure about these. I think both are now independent. Hawaii may have been invited to join the Pacific States, but turned it down. Alaska seceded not long after Texan, but may have gone to war with either Canada or Russia, and is now an occupied state.

Any and all critiques welcome, but especially those from a political or military perspective, as I know next to nothing about both. I could probably write more but this has gone on long enough, and I need to go to bed.

edited 16th Jan '11 3:24:32 AM by Carbonek13

I think the conversion of Mormons from American citizens to independence-seeking ChurchMilitants would need a good explanation. I'm a little bit unclear as to the plausibility of Deseret, but I do appreciate averting the creation of a new Confederate States of America in a Balkanize Me scenario.

Cause:

[...] rampant "Us versus Them" mentality in DC, along with a growing religious fervor [...]

Effect:

[...] states begin picking sides. At some point, transcontinental communications, including internet, are severed between the newly formed nations.

Seems completely disporportionate to me. This sort of thing is usually set in the aftermath of a nation-wide upheaval - a serious economic crisis, or a serious natural disaster, or a serious nuclear attack, or whatever. Serious as in millions of people are dead or dying or at least homeless and starving. Without something like that, I just don't see where the impetus for large-scale change would come from. As long as the status quo is relatively comfortable, most people are too complacent to put it on the line for something as intangible as politics or religion. People from our cultural background, that is.

Severing communications is particularly extreme, IMO. That's just not done, nowadays, short of dictatorships who rely on all-pervasive control of the media. Even regions actively engaged in warfare against each other generally don't want to lose the ability to talk to each other, let alone that to talk to the rest of the world.

The whole independent Mormon thing was inspired by something Orson Scott Card wrote a few years back, basically hinting that they do something like that if America keeps passing laws not in line with their beliefs (i.e. gay marriage, etc.), but the truth is it's been a while, so I don't remember most of it.

Even though the Heartland is bigger, Deseret is the closest to a Space-Filling Empire, I think.

Actually there was a "New Confederacy" movement in Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia in the early days, but it didn't last long, and ended up divided and conquered by the Feds and the Heartland within a year or two. There was also a "Nation of New England" movement, but it was incorporated into the Federal States without bloodshed.

Guess I'll have to shake up the status quo, then. How about a virus the CDC is powerless to stop? Millions die, the uber-religious declare it a godsent plague, and others start hinting that the government engineered and/or released it. Fearmongers start whipping up distrust, the gradually start taking control. Balkanization ensues.

edited 16th Jan '11 1:43:54 PM by Carbonek13

Guess I'll have to shake up the status quo, then. How about a virus the CDC is powerless to stop? Millions die, the uber-religious declare it a godsent plague, and others start hinting that the government engineered and/or released it. Fearmongers start whipping up distrust, the gradually start taking control. Balkanization ensues.

Yes, that makes it vastly lot more plausible, IMO. I had actually thought of it as two mostly independent stages - first, the disaster saps the stability out of the system; then, ideological forces knock it over - but tying the latter right into the former is much more elegant, of course. Nice job!

I was going to suggest trying out the "economic crisis" version, instead of a more tangible problem, simply because it hasn't been used as widely. For example, some trigger event (computer virus shuts down Wall Street, or a super-massive credit card fraud scheme is perpetrated, or something goes badly wrong with a futuristic paper money counterfeit technology) could lead to a severe liquidity crisis or hyperinflation (opposite but equally effective), and if the administration is unable to cope, or simply incompetent, things could conceivably go downhill very quickly. By itself, that still wouldn't qualify as "serious" as described above, but with a bit of contriving one might get it there after a while.

But "godsent debt" just doesn't have the same ring to it as "godsent plague", so I'm not going to suggest it, after all. Or, well, I'm not going to strongly endorse it, at least.

Just FYI, Mormons are religious about democracy, except with an exception that makes it authoritarian-ish, though most Mormons I know  ^*

As a Washingtonian, I should probably fill you in on what our politics look like.

The Cascade Mountains literally divide our state down the middle. Everyone to the west of the Cascades is more likely to be left-leaning. (It's where most of our major cities are.) Everyone to the right of the Cascades is more likely to be right-wing and religious. (Case in point: Once I was travelling to Yakima and on the radio there was an ad for farmland that would be really nice to build a bunker on while waiting for the Rapture.) Despite this, Washington is actually the second least-religious state in America.

From The Other Wiki: [1]

A note on "Other Religions" - New Age things are very popular here. Acupuncture, homeopathy and other quackery... er, I mean "alternative treatments" seem to pop up all over the place.

Also, why would the Pacific States be on better terms with China? Just curious.

California comes off a bit too utopist, and I say this as a lifetime Californian, were not as left-wing as people think. Outside of the cities of San Francisco, L.A., and Sacramento the outlining counties tend to vote republican. Hell San Diego, the second largest city in California, is pretty conservative for an urban area.

The Heartland States in real life tend to despise federal government authority so I don’t see why fascism, a philosophy that has all things as subservient to the national government, would be more popular. I would imagine it would be a much looser confederation with severe economic disparity between each state rather than stereotypical totalitarian Mordor land.

I sure hope that's not meant to be a shot at every medicine made outside of the U.S., Suzy.

Two questions — 1. Why were inter-area communications severed? The only way that could be accomplished is to physically take down cell towers that reach across the borders and physically cut telephone and telegraph lines. And what are you going to do about tv, (broadcast 'and'' satellite) and radio signals? How are you going to stop them from crossing the borders?

2 There's far less in common politically and ideologically between the upper Midwest and Texas than you think. If Deseret is a Mormon state, why in the hell would Las Vegas and Reno (and Phoenix and Santa Fe) want to be part of it? Your divisions seem to be based more on "would this make a cool map" than "would these people actually band together?"

edited 17th Jan '11 12:43:27 PM by Madrugada

Well a few things....

For the upheaval, I would just faceroll America with everything at once. Most Empires collapse due to there being too many factors all at once to handle. If America today were hit by a horrible plague, that would be bad but recoverable. If they were hit by a massive economic meltdown at the same time, America would probably become a screwed up state. If they were also hit by a major natural disaster, and they were also lodged in a particularly unpopular war on foreign soil, which saps their economy, and there is an economic meltdown in some particularly dastardly manner (such as like the current one with bankers screwing everyone over for trillions), then America might hit the breaking point all at once.

The Mormons becoming Church Militant might need explanation, such as the plague wiping out much of the population but by luck missed a lot of the higher up mormons, making them *seem* like they have god-given protection. Then Texas follows suit by saying being their form of protestant Christian will protect them!

Also, so you say Alaska goes to war with Canada and then becomes an occupied state after losing to Canada (As I can't imagine the zero troops of Alaska could do anything to Canada)? Plus, with all this shit hitting America, what do foreign states such as Canada/Mexico/European Union/China do?

@colbert - What are you talking about? I'm not against medicine made outside the U.S. I am against so-called "medicine" that scams people out of their time, money, and health.

As mentioned, it would take a pretty massive disaster to really hit this kind of scenario. So I have to wonder, what happens to the rest of the world during this? Even if they have no direct effects, the US is kind of a major player in the world economy, so I'd imagine the US destabilizing would have far reaching effects there.

I mean, at the very least, Mexico and Canada will probably end up involved in this.

Maybe the plaque is so contagious or can easily mutate that the other countries don't want to come close enough even with a 100 yard stick. If from a geographic point of view maybe its getting hit by an unnatural amount of hurricanes, tonadoes, and earthquakes that the world doesn't think its not worth getting in too much physical contact with the former states. As for communication, it could either be destroyed or block the signal with all the weather changes and for the plaque maybe it killed most of the people who know any degree of knowing how to work them that people didn't care to relearn them on their own considering there's a plaque or unnatural weather patterns happening outside. That my two cents. Also I live in Florida and I would think that anything below lake okeechobee would like to be their own thing. Thers a saying down here that says that the more north(physically) you get in florida, the more south(culturally) it gets so that may factor into things.

With the state of play globally, and the amount of rubbish we seem happy to put up with, it'd have to be really REALLY something.

Or something small that utterly inconveniences people - a cyber attack that destroys the internet functionality in the US? A full scale Ferguson - style overspill of rioting and anger?

It would probably have to be that, coupled with the revelation that the main government can't contain the issue, be it civil unrest, natural disaster, plague etc.

Another Katrina, coupled with a few riots and maybe an economic crash sending some cities into Detroit levels of deficit? Extrme Republicans being elected, with Corporate backers pushing the envelope of Corporations "running" many things?

Of course you could stick with the premise and not over analyse - look at "Handmaid's tale" - not a huge amount of believable backstory, but a gripping tale anyway. It doesn't necessarily need to be a factually realistic element.

Have a mad Republican enter the whitehouse and nuke Iran as their first order. Yes, in reality there'd be PLENTY of people to curb THAT order. But all it takes is enough fanatics in the decision chain with authority to force the issue....

Maybe there was a homefron senerio where someone manage to have a pernmanet emp over the U.S. and no one manage to track it down and destroy it and by the point of the story the rest of world just adapted to the lack of us that there was no point of taking out the emp.

Absurdly Strawman Political.

I don't think there's any good enough reason to cause the Civil War to happen all over again, in the USA, and on as many fronts as you're describing. The "Us vs. Them" thing is really difficult to believe - you could probably pull it off, but... I just don't see it happening without an Alternate History scenario to break modern ties. Politics aren't enough any more.

If you wanted to do it that way, you'd have to justify the breakdown and also explain why the Federal-level government breaks down while the State-level ones don't - and can sustain themselves enough to create their own nations.

(Utah seceding also doesn't make any sense. Even if it is presently self-sustaining in terms of agriculture - going by the 1 acre/person rule - global climate change will probably require it to pipe in water in the future.)

I would also re-evaluate which states are included, and why they need to be. As interesting an idea as Deseret would be, why occupy and populate areas that aren't easily habitable (Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico) when resources used to prop up those areas could be instead used in other ways? There is no consolidation of power or resources here, just redistricting, and that's largely only useful in politics that stop existing in this setting.

My personal preference is for a "survivors rebuilding" scenario. Something happened that rendered national-level politics worthless and forced isolated areas to fend for themselves. Maybe an alien invasion that turned into a Pyrrhic Victory, with Earth only just barely surviving a war of attrition? This would justify a lack of resources and technology (either used up or completely destroyed), and also give Canada and Mexico something to do while the former USA is in shambles.

I wouldn't throw away the Strawman Political aspects, though, but only if there's genuine hatred for the former United States of America in the nations that now comprise its landmass. Why would anyone force themselves and their neighbors to act a certain way - because the alternative is the un-[insert nation name here] way, that's why. The inhabitants would have to have a black-and-white Red Scare-era outlook, I think.

I do have to say that if we were talking about this maybe in the eighties or early nineties, our idea of plausibility/fanfic would be very different?

If I'm understanding you correctly, that's an Alternate Universe rather than 20 Minutes into the Future, yeah? If you're going to do that, sure, some of these things might be more plausible... or at least not violate suspension of disbelief past what the MST3K Mantra can cover.

I still doubt enough infrastructure would remain and be operable enough to sustain a full state-sized nation, though. There's a bunch of things that, all claims of self-sustenance to the contrary, are simply impossible to do without federal-level assistance.

It's an interesting idea, but let's not try to pretend that it isn't Strawman Political to the utmost degree. And even within the concept of Strawman Political it is really speaking with really broad strokes- all of the east coast is moved under DC, yet Utah expands out to be a major power in its own right. And if the rest of the country decided they wanted to throw off the shackles of the government why would suddenly a large part of the country decide to still be ruled under DC (read: if every other state could rebel, why didn't any of the East Cost?)

Also, be very, VERY careful with the West Coast. If not handled correctly it might just wind up being incredibly Utopian, which'll only bring the Strawman Political factors up even harder.

So yeah, it'll wind up a bit Strawmanny. But that isn't inherently bad, but you need to add some layer of depth to the governments beyond just one basic concept.

You know what? I dont think it is. I dont even think it would take a series of disasters to cause this to happen. All it would take is for a majority of people in certain states to stop paying their federal taxes. The present day Tea Party could be the foundation of this. If a political movement based on that idea captured a state legislature, and that state directed all tax payments to themselves instead of to Washington DC, then they would be in succession in all but name. Enough states doing that, and the Federal Gov would be in trouble. They can try to occupy the "Anti-Taxers", that would cause the political dispute to turn violent, and meanwhile due to the loss of the tax revenue, Washington cant pay the soldiers anymore. They start going home, and the entire US national structure falls apart like a house of cards, and various clusters of states band together to survive.

If you approached it just right, it could seem plausible enough for a story.

edited 24th Oct '15 7:05:19 AM by DeMarquis

Would general chaos and anarchy be a more likely outcome to the collapse of the United States than it's grouping into these large quasi-national states? 'Cause I have my own ideas about a similar project and that seems more plausible to me.

General chaos and anarchy exist for a while, but people are resilient. They will organize themselves somehow reasonably quickly.

I don't doubt it, but the United States isn't a country, it's a friggin' continent. What post-collapse gathering of survivors is going to have the manpower and resources to extend their reach far beyond the city or town they're based out of? I imagine scattered pockets of self-governing civilization in the vast, untamed, chaotic post-collapse wilderness where anything can happen.

OK, that's plausible too, but the OP specified Divided States of America, not After the End.