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The Great Mistake was caused by Gandhi.
While they are leaving it deliberately ambiguous, the developers of the game have claimed that the Great Mistake could have been a nuclear exchange in Asia. Now, who in the Civilization series is nuke-happy enough to launch them at another nuclear power, and lives in Asia? Gandhi, the true Big Bad of the Civilization series. As corollary to this, the reason that the Supremacy victory involves invading Earth is not because Science Is Bad, but because Gandhi rules over it as a cruel dictator.
  • If this theory is true, then the Emancipation Victory involves sending an army of fracking robot cyborgs to defeat evil dictator Gandhi. You sir, are Made of Win.
  • And that means the Promised Land Victory makes you the herald of Nuke-crazy Gandhi, who proceeds to conquer the planet, probably using said nukes. Yay?
  • Alternatively, it could have been caused by the Always Chaotic Evil Barbarians.

The American Reclamation Corporation is a front organization for EXALT.
EXALT is seemingly very heavily decentralized, so destroying their headquarters would just slow them down, not stop them completely. Since XCOM appears in Civ 5, and the science victory is essentially the beginning of Beyond Earth, you can draw connections. As for evidence that they're a front? Look at the ARC symbol and compare it to the EXALT symbol. The Doylist explanation is that both symbols are designed to evoke Illuminati conspiracy theories, but a Watsonian explanation would be that they are simply two different sides of the same organization.
  • Alternatively, EXALT is the American Reclamation Corporation's black ops unit that the company can disavow if things go south.
    • Since EXALT existed in XCOM's time period, presumably far before the Great Mistake, EXALT must predate the ARC for a long time, so they can't be a front for them.
  • Alternatively alternatively, ARC actually had its roots in XCOM. If you look at this trailer, the people manning ARC's mission control is wearing similar clothing to the XCOM operatives in The Bureau.
    • That might because both were going for the classic NASA, Gene Kranz, look.

Canada falls under the purview of the American Reclamation Corporation.
The vaguely defined structures of each faction, and the implications of those not fully revealed, seem to divide the world into various multinational chunks: People's African Union covers Africa, Pan-Asian Cooperative gets China and its neighbours, Kavithan Protectorite covering India and probably the Middle East, Slavic Federation presumably gets Russia and Eastern Europe, Franco-Iberia getting Western Europe, Brazilia getting all of South America, and Polystralia being Australia and various Oceania nations. That leaves the American Reclamation Corporation with... well, America, but likely also its neighbours of Mexico and Canada.

With specific regards to Canada's status, here are a number of guesses as to how the link exists:

  • Canada was militarily conquered by the US or ARC during or after the Great Mistake.
  • Canada willingly joined with the United States for stability's sake after the Great Mistake.
  • Canada's government collapsed during the Great Mistake and its remnants were absorbed by the US or ARC in the aftermath.
  • Canada or Canada-based Mega Corps were bought out by the American Reclamation Corporation.
  • The ARC covers all portions of the Americas not part of Brazilia, and Canada falls under that.

  • ARC is a corporation without national borders strictly speaking; it was founded in the United States but has no necessarily territorial jurisdiction. So, it's likely a multinational effort, centered in the US but drawing on many different nations, particularly those of NAFTA which would include Canada and Mexico. There's no need for buying out/conquering/assimilating Canada or a Canadian Mega Corps because there's no reason that ARC would be nationalized any more than Walmart. It's possible that a lot of Brits, Irish, Polystraylians and other unrepresentation nations might have citizens who applied for work with ARC and ultimately became a part of their seeding.

  • There is of course another explanation for any given nation not showing up...

A "United Commonwealth" or similar faction will become future DLC.
As an alternate to the above, Canada will be part of some Neo British Empire that covers all UK territories that are not aligned with other factions.
  • The Polystralia faction makes several references to a "Commonwealth", so the idea of a separate DLC seems jossed, though it does open up the idea that maybe Polystralia IS this faction - that instead of having Britain as its head, Australia is the leading country.
  • Considering how independant Australia is in this, it's unlikely Canada would return to their equally estranged colonial roots. It's more likely that they'll get their own faction in coming DLC/Expansions, if not simply being considered a part of ARC. It is possible that Britain may have suffered from rising waterlevels or some other disaster that causes them to merge into Canada, though it's just as likely they'll get their own faction as well or merge into the Northern Europeans.
    • Confirmed. The North Sea Alliance in Rising Tide consists of Britain and the Scandinavian countries.

The Great Mistake was related to the events of XCOM: Enemy Unknown.
  • Following the invasion, the massive boost in technological progress combined with the massively shifted geopolitical climate lead to new chaos. Wars break out across the globe, utilizing the dwindling Meld reserves to create genetically modified soldiers and MEC troopers to be deployed in wars for food and land.

The aliens of the "Contact" victory left because they got the "Transcendence" victory.
  • By that, I mean the aliens got to the "learn that the planet is alive with its own consciousness" level of the Transcendence victory and were freaked out by the concept, opting to abandon the planet instead of letting their minds merge with the planetary consciousness.

The aliens of the "Contact" victory left because they were followers of Supremacy.
  • Having fully emancipated themselves from their former ecosystem, they decided to leave it be and become space nomads.

The Great Mistake was caused by the 2014 World Cup.
  • Brazil's defeat in the the 2014 World Cup at German hands causes them to turn into the militaristic society they are in Beyond Earth and they proceed with the total destruction of all things German in a massive war that engulfs the whole world. This is also why Germany is not a playable faction in this game.
    • Funny, but Jossed. INTEGR, one of the new factions in Rising Tide, confirms that Germany in some form still exists in the future.

The planetary entry process renders all faction leaders (and very initial colonists) into The Ageless.
  • This is why Kavitha is not the only immortal, ageless leader. Which leads into the next WMG...

Kavitha has been to the colony planet before.
Either by alien abduction, the Great Mistake, a combination of the two, or something else entirely, Kavitha became the prophet she is today (and The Ageless) by visiting the new planet approximately two hundred years before The Seeding began.
  • Considering a recent preview mentioned a quest being triggered after your explorer finds a human skeleton in alien ruins that is thousands of years old, this might not be so far fetched anymore.
    • Jossed, the human skeleton is actually from a colonist of yours that was sent back in time after entering the ruins, who encounters the Precursors at the height of their civilization.

The reason the Supremacy victory is called Emancipation is because Earth isn't nice to native cyborgs.
  • Initially, their goal is same as the Purity's faction, reestablishing contact with Earth to help bring their planet under their dominion...and then they discover that the native Earth governments have an absolutely horrifying view of cybernetic and artificial life, and their goal switches to "stop this crime against us and our cousins by any means necessary, ergo remaining free ourselves."

The full name for the ARC is the American Nation Reclamation Corporation.
  • It just rolls off the tongue really well.

What happens after the Contact Victory.
  • Upon being contacted and befriended by one of the factions, the aliens agree to use their knowledge and ressources to assist in a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflicts. Followers of Purity travel back to Earth as it fully recovers from the Great Mistake. Followers of Supremacy achieve their emancipation from ecosystems and begin a nomadic life in outer space. Followers of Harmony learn about the planetary consciousness and merge with it. Everyone keeps each other's phone numbers and has a good time.

Kavitha Thakur is a Personified Nation.
  • More specifically, she's India's daughter, born shortly before the Great Mistake and ultimately replaces him as the anthropomorphic embodiment of the country, if not the entire Indian Sub-Continent. But in order to ensure her safety as a baby, she was placed in the care of one Raj Thakur, who "adopted" her as his own child. It would definitely explain why she seemed the youngest of all the faction leaders and simultaneously the oldest. And after 200 years, she's long come to recognize her peculiar identity but nonetheless downplays it, preferring to be a political/religious leader who cares for her "people."
    • Alternatively, she might have been born at the moment of the cataclysm (and therefore the embodiment of how they intend to move forward), which is well-known to give you superpowers. (There is fictional precedent.)

High-Tech Hexagons are the future of fashion.
  • The majority of leaders have hexagon clothing patterns either by default or through affinity improvement, so it seems reasonable.

The Indian woman in the opening cinematic is reunited with her father if the Protectorate achieves a Promised Land victory.

If there is going to be DLC or Expansion Packs, the new factions will serve as Foils to the current factions.
And their backstories will involve being formed shortly after The Seeding sent the first factions into space, and their formation was the result of the Earth sliding from overpopulated and underresourced imploding on itself, and the new factions forming from the ashes of the old Earth blocs.The list of examples:

The Aliens are not native to the planet.
  • They are concentrated on nests that only spawn on xenomass, and thrive in miasma, suggesting they are more suited to a different atmosphere. I surmise that another planet in the galactic region had evolved to the point of a single, conscious entity, with no ecosystem but a united biomass. Some calamity then destroyed the planet, or perhaps the entity engineered its destruction in order to colonize space. A planetary fragment bearing some xenomass crashed into the planet, and the mass has since been taking over the planet from within, with bits of its essence bubbling up as xenomass pools or miasma, spawning various creatures in a deliberate effort to conquer the native ecosystem.
    • This Troper's theory is that the Progenitors created the Hive Mind of the planet using genetic engineering. Because AI Is A Crap Shoot, their designer lifeforms overran the planet, forcing them to leave.

Harmony is an evolution of the G-mods and supremacy evolved from MEC troopers.
Harmony is about genetic modification, like the G-mods. Supremacy is about cybernetic augmentation, like the MEC troopers. Perhaps the doctors wrote books about there transhuman beliefs, inspiring Harmony and Supremacy.

Transcendence isn't the actual end in itself, and Harmony hasn't forgotten Earth.
  • While Purity's priority was to subjugate Planet and to bring the settlers from Earth there, and Supremacy's priority could be summed up as "ascend into a cybernetic society" (which is almost definitely accomplished by the time of the Emancipation), Harmony's priority is more long-term: bringing Earth's humans over, as what Purity wants, would likely be a death sentence for either Planet and/or the humans (since the two environments are largely incompatible). Harmony intends to first adapt themselves to suit Planet and completely understand Planet. Once that is done, they will research and build a gate to Earth and then do a Harmony-flavoured version of either the Emancipation or Promised Land victories (either to evolve the remaining Earth humans to be in tune with their environment, to rejuvenate Earth into becoming a living ecosystem again or to bring Earth humans to Planet and help them adapt through gene modification). The timescale used is thus different for each faction: Supremacy has already achieved their goal and is now spreading their enlightment, Purity is working towards achieving their goal and Harmony is working towards the first step to achieving their goal.

The Great Mistake was the Utopia Project, the Diplomatic Victory, or Domination Victory from Civ V
Basically, it goes like this:
  • 1. *Civ you don't like* (probably Gandhi) completes the Utopia Project, which causes everybody to forget their "native" culture and go for the False Utopia Schtick of your opponent hook line and sinker.
  • 2. Using the massive support he's gained, *Leader you don't like* takes over the UN, and reorganizes it into a one-world state.
  • 3. The Sponsors are a few groups that are stuck in a Forever War with this False Utopia. This causes them to realize that they'll run out of resources long before they actually win this war, causing them to seek the seeding project.
  • As a result:
    • Harmonists want to prevent another global war from ever happening by turning humans into a hive mind with little reason to go to war with each other ever again.
    • Supremacists wants to send reinforcements back to Earth so that they can liberate from the evils of the One World Order.
    • Puritans want to undo the effects of the Utopia Project and try to restore their Civ's native culture from old Earth. They also want to bring war refugees to Planet.

Supremacist society is System Shock or Deus Ex, Harmony is like Bioshock, and Purity is like Bioshock Infinite
Technology-wise, they're rather similar: Do we splice our DNA? Do we Build AI and augmentations? Or maybe build lots of floaty things and have what amounts to a conservative society?
  • You might as well say they're the major factions of Command & Conquer: Purity is basically GDI with more red on their outfits, Supremacy echoes many of Nod's everything's-better-with-cyborgs traits (and disdain for the old ways), and Harmony is either the Forgotten or the Scrin depending on how much you (dis)like them.

  • This is the reason why every mention of it is so vague.

Kavitha Thakur really is over 200 years old thanks to the Resurrection Device
The Civilopedia entry for the Resurrection Device claims that the capability to make one existed on Earth, but was not made due to resource constraints and ethical problems. If you follow the idea that Kavitha is a Glorious Leader type who wants to maintain her cult of personality, then becoming immortal is one way she can do that. The device is used to keep people at a prime age, which shows why Kavitha looks young. Finally, the existence of the device is kept secret from the public, which not only explains how Kavitha may be able to use it without anyone knowing, but it links in to her backstory, in which she claims to keep a strong spiritual connection. This is her cover for the resurrection device.

Rejinaldo is of Chilean descent.
According to the devs Brasilia is the result of a merging of Brazil and its other Latin American neighbours, Chileans have a unique syntax for naming children, they have a first and middle name, and two last names, one taken from each parent, giving them a total of four names. Rejinaldo has four names, excluding his title, and his first name is not a typical Brazilian spelling of his name while it is used in Chile. Thus, based on his name we can conclude that Rejinaldo comes from Chilean ancestry.

The Indian girl in the opening will be the leader of a Rising Tide faction
Chekhov's Gunman has to shoot someone, after all, and while she could just be a sample colonist brought along by luck, I get the feeling we'll see more of her. Possibly a division in the Indian ranks?
  • Besides the fact that the intro shows a Kavithan symbol on the truck driving her to the Seeding launch, she wrote a letter to her daughter before landing on the planet. The intro shows the Indian girl existing cryosleep just as they reached the planet. At the very least, she fails to meet the criteria of "having her own child before making planetfall" - or at least one old enough to read that letter.
    • The leader of Al Falah has remarkable similarities to the girl seen in the Rising Tide trailer,so there is a possibility of this being confirmed.
    • It was stated in one of the livestreams that the Wandering Accent Indian Lady is the older version of the girl in the cinematic.

Hybrid Affinities will be ideologies in their own right
  • Given how thematic the conflict between the various Affinities is—both in- and out of universe—it's likely that any hybrids between them won't be the moderate compromises they seem to be on the surface, but unique visions for humanity all their own...just not precisely following one path. Possible Hybrid Affinities:
  • Sustainability (Purity/Harmony): Just as as ardently pro-normal-human as "vanilla" Purity, but tempered by the memory of what happened to Earth's environment and a sense of what will happen if the same happens on the new world. Will have a focus on low-impact expansion, on the cheap (less expensive food production? Fewer resources needed to maintain happiness/population?), and various ways to dissuade the alien wildlife from aggression, without controlling them outright. Units and cities would be eventually gain a sleek, smooth and streamlined look; unmistakably machines/constructed buildings, but with visible solar panels and other eco-friendly aesthetics. Their military would be a mix of Zerg Rush and Magikarp Power, being initially weaker those of other colonies but easy to crank out in large numbers on the cheap...but gaining impressive buffs and upgrades with the right techs.
    • Unique technologies could include a massive super-greenhouse/lab complex dedicated to integrating Earthbourne plants and animals into the planet's ecosystem, but while still minimizing the risk of invasive species problems. Utilizing the alien flora and fauna as food supplies (with a little crossbreeding and genetic manipulation) also works.
    • A "repellent sprayer" vehicle also fits. It'll lay down a chemical barrier the aliens stay the hell away from, but does Scratch Damage at worst....though with some careful positioning and a little luck, you could indirectly herd a few aliens towards a rival city. Not quite controlling the beats, but still going beyond Purity's "shoot 'em all!" approach.
  • Adaptability (Supremacy/Harmony): A philosophy that adheres to the idea that the human form is obsolete, but the biology of the new worlds can be exploited up the wazoo.
    • Heavily cyberneticized and gene-modded soldiers and aliens. Weapons are double-barrelled hybrids of the Harmony acid squirt gun and Supremacy laser gun for a 1-2 Punch.
    • A Miasmic Concentrator device to harvest miasma. More of a modular enhancement than a structure; allows attack/defense boni on units and production boni on structures as long as they're on miasma-afflicted tiles.
  • Neo-Modernity (Purity/Supremacy): A system of thought that promotes technological and social advancement while preserving a sense of continuity with their ancestors from Earth.
  • All of the above are jossed. The preview stream presented the affinities thusly: Purity/Supremacy is remote-controlled robots, Supremacy/Harmony is "power by any means", and Harmony/Purity is trying to make humanity god-like.

The UNS Unity will serve as mankind's last Seeding mission.
In essence, the events of SMAC are merely postponed. At some point, perhaps a few generations or so after the first Seeding missions are launched, conditions on Earth once more deteriorate amidst mounting chaos that increasingly puts the Great Mistake to shame. The United Nations decides to take matters into its own hands. Thus with much more limited resources and time, it launches one final Seeding mission Just Before the End. Bound for the nearest star to Earth: Alpha Centauri.

  • The timeline doesn't work at all, though. The Unity was launched in 2060 and makes Planetfall at 2100 AD, while the Seeding expeditions are launched around 2200 - 2300 AD and make landfall in the early 2600's. The more likely scenario is that the Unity was launched Just Before the End, in the last years before the Great Mistake. In the Alpha Centauri timeline, none of the subsequent Seeding launches achieved the Promised Land or Emancipation victories, hence why Earth is a bombed-out ruin after a million years after Transcendence.
    • This raises a new question: Why were no seeding missions sent to the planet Alpha Centauri takes place on? AC stretches on for centuries, long after seeding missions were launched and started landing. It also adds a bit of Fridge Horror to the Contact victory; You're probably either contacting the Manifold Caretakers or Manifold Usurpers (or both)

  • UNS Unity could be the first colony ship some time after the Great Mistake. The sense of desperation at the time would made the colonists more fanatical in their chosen ideology and the dark age after the Great Mistake would have made them think that they're humanity's last and only hope.

Vadim Kozlov is gay.
The Middle Eastern faction is led by a woman and the American faction is led by a Mexican. I see a pattern here.
  • What pattern? Just looks like Insane Troll Logic from those out of the loop.
    • Nations being led by members of groups that were, in the past (and thus our present) marginalized in their respective societies. This can also include the African Union, as it is led by a Somalian, as opposed to say, Nigerian or South African.
      • Most likely Jossed, since Kozlov is Happily Married (and has taken both his wife and his kids on the mission). Unless his family is The Beard, and Kozlov is an Armored Closet Gay, it's more likely that he's as straight as the rocket he flew in on.

What happens when a civ conquers a city from another Affinity
They don't assimilate them immediately-which would be logistically very difficult. Instead, they shut down the factories that make the augs or powered armor or whatnot, and then retool them to make whatever tech they do like. They might also do buy-back programs.In the case of Purity invading Supremacy, they also might have some means of putting a cyborg's augments into a "safe mode" that makes them no stronger than a human.Over time, as only the invader's technology is being supported and sold, the people voluntarily switch to using that technology.

The Great Mistake was orchestrated by Chungsu, but has long become The Atoner
The ensuing turmoil following it gave Chungsu the sort of leverage to not only reunite Korea (with the South as their springboard) but also carve out its own sphere of influence in East Asia outside the PAC. By the time Han Jae Moon comes into the picture however, the organization had since felt remorse for its actions and has been atoning through actually being benevolent.

As a corollary, Chungsu was responsible for dismantling the Kim dynasty.
Which means that bit about "using espionage to topple dictatorships" isn't just a front; they've done it before, and on a high-profile target to boot. It also means any resemblance between Chungsu and North Korea nowadays is due to He Who Fights Monsters.

Beyond Earth is actually a prequel to Civilization V.
Civilization V has a rather eerie opening narration for each leader, where the narrator appears to address himself to that leader, praising their historical accomplishments, mentioning things like the year of their death and how they were remembered, offering them a new chance "to stand the test of time". The narrator is in fact a Progenitor who, in true Sufficiently Advanced Alien fashion, has just raised that leader from the dead, turned them into The Ageless and brought them to an Earth-like planet so they can experience the full scope of human history. The narrator later recognizes the leader as an equal if they can dominate the cultural, diplomatic or military scene of the planet, or if they can reach the stars with their own spaceship.

The Great Mistake had something to do with The Stars Becoming Right.
There are a number of H. P. Lovecraft references in the game. The survivors are those who were mentally stable enough to resist the eldritch insanity.

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