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x??? The thing is McFaul and Browder aren't criminals. They're critics of Putin and hard on Russia, which to Putin may as well be the same thing. The fact that Trump even considered handing over US citizens to Putin is insane. I can guarantee that if this deal had actually gone through, Browder and McFaul would have inevitably run into tragic "accidents" in Moscow.
Edited by danime91 on Jul 19th 2018 at 12:01:21 PM
Jupiterian Local
The Russians didn't affect the vote itself. They did not add fake votes or remove legitimate votes. What they did was influence who people decided to vote for by doing things like hacking the DNC and releasing emails embarrassing to the Democrats, using social media to push political narratives, and (possibly) colluding with the Trump campaign to use these efforts to their best effect. They did do things like hack into registered voter lists, but there's no indication that I'm aware of that they tampered with that kind of information.
That said, the GOP are still assholes for blocking this. We know for a fact that Russia was able to influence the 2016 election, and we should be doing everything in our power to prevent them from doing it again. The fact that we aren't is unacceptable, and the fact that the GOP is blocking funding to stop it means they are not complicit with it should it happen again. (And make no mistake, it will — the Russians, having gotten away from it once, have no reason not to do it again. All we can hope for is that knowing they're likely involved helps diminish their influence.)
Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
You guys know who Bill Browder is right?
He's the driving force behind the Magnitsky Act, and THE thorn in Putin's side.
Ah, as I thought. Then yes this kind of thing absolutely matters but it's only really impactful in a close election like with 2016. That's not going to be enough on its own to stop a wave and it's dangerously alarmist to suggest that it could without proper evidence.
Agreed, they're corrupt traitorous assholes who should be thoroughly investigated for links to Russia. Still at the very least I'll settle for their electoral devastation.
I cannot wait for the midterms.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jul 19th 2018 at 3:37:06 PM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/
The USA does not do proper exit polls. What the USA does, instead, is use exit polls to analyze the demographics of how people voted.
As a part of that analytic process, they adjust the poll results to match the official count.
This is anathema to any use of exit polls to verify election results, because it becomes a tautology. However, the pollsters also publish the exit polls as they get them before the final count is in, and thus, before that post-facto adjustment. The table linked above, is a compilation of those mostly-raw results. And, well, uhm, yhea, that is the kind of discrepancy that would cause the US state department to immediately declare an election in any other nation fraudulent.
The main caution here is that because US exit polls are designed to aid talking heads discussing which demo voted for whom US exit polls are uniquely obnoxtious - The standard way to conduct an exit poll is to replicate the voting booth as exactly as practicable, but US exit polls also ask you a bunch of questions about who you are, which introduces bias in who consents to the exit poll. However... the discrepancies are very large, and very variable between states, and well, cultural differences between how likely republicans or democrats are to participate in exit polls should not swing that much between very culturally similar states. You know what does swing a lot? "How good the info-sec of the local election commission is".
Also. This is actually the main reason I harbor these suspicions;
Putin has no respect for democracy whatsoever. Neither does the GRU. Just hacking the count directly is a lot less effort than hacking the minds of the electorate, and the actors trying to fuck with the election have no cultural norms stopping them from doing this, none whatsoever. So given the rather substantial effort made towards the difficult task of swaying the public opinion, my prior for the likelyhood that they vent all in on subverting the computers doing the count? Is pretty darn high. The likelyhood they will do so in future elections if it looks like mind-hacking will not cut it? Approaches unity.
Thus, it is really darn important that US elections get a paper trail. And exit polls conducted to proper international standards.
Lost in Space
Actually, hacking the count in a way that materially affects election results is quite hard. There has been no evidence released thus far of this occurring successfully. However, we do have quite a bit of evidence of tampering with voter rolls, causing many people not to be able to vote.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Yes, I know who Bill Browder is. As far as the Russians are concerned, he's a criminal who is charged with financial crimes. To us, it's a frivolous charge to get rid of a political enemy. Kind of like how to them, these indicted Russian nationals are just frivolous charges to deal with a political enemy.
Is this the case? No. We know that because we know Russia. Which is why I said "on paper" it looks like a good deal, because teeeeeeeeeeeechnically it's trading "questioning a near-even number of people on both sides for crimes."
Now, here's the really weird thing. Trump calls it a good deal. Other than his need to praise everything Russia does, that's really weird because if it's a good deal, then it means that we're getting more than we give. And the "getting" here is "testimony that Russia interfered with his election." Christ, he really has no idea how to actually make a deal, huh?
Found a Youtube Channel with political stances you want to share? Hop on over to this page and add them.
Except no. Putin knows exactly what this is.
The Magnitsky Act infuriates Putin more than any traditional Sanctions ever could, because it's personal. It freezes the assets of Oligarchs in the West, and is a threat to him personally. Bill Browder has made it his life's work to pass similar acts in other countries. This is retailiation.
Edited by megaeliz on Jul 19th 2018 at 5:18:05 AM
Do you think he'll get to remove it?
Also, it turns out voting machines are in fact even more trivial to hack than we thought.
General sanctions are a much bigger issue for them. The Magnitsky Act only really rises to the level of frustrating, as there’s ways around if, but sanctions have proven to be able to almost irreparably cripple the Russian economy. Certain types of sanctions can hamstring their military capabilities as well.
It’s possible Putin takes the Magnitsky Act personally but it’s far from issue #1.
Edited by archonspeaks on Jul 19th 2018 at 2:37:40 AM
They should have sent a poet.
I think you should be quite wary about the mid-terms. As I've said in the past, the next logical step for Russian interference (if the intended goal is to destabilise democracy) is not to support the Republicans in the mid-terms or to prevent a Blue Wave from happening. It's to support the Democrats and help a Blue Wave to happen.
And afterwards leak the evidence that Russia supported the Democrats during the campaign.
The aim would to trigger bothsiderism at best or ruin the Democrats at worst. Regardless of outcome, the aim would be about disenfranchising the electorate ('both sides being equally as bad') and damaging the ability of democracy to function in any practical way.
You don't do that by supporting only one side, allowing the other side to become the face of the resistance. You do that by supporting both sides in an attempt to make both sides look equally as bad in the eyes of the electorate.
Edited by Wyldchyld on Jul 19th 2018 at 10:44:12 AM
If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
Actualy this is a really good assesment and something I would be concerned with myself.
The Russian interference has recently seen a massive uptick in signal boosting leftwing issues as well, things like March for our Lives.
They don't care about the issues they are pushing, they don't care about the politicians they are pushing, they just want to cause democracy to break.... and the republicians were willing stooges.
...
We cant let ourselfs become the same.
x3 Remember when Donald Trump Jr. Met with that Russian Lawyer about "adoptions". It was really about repealing the Magnitiky Act.
Edited by megaeliz on Jul 19th 2018 at 5:49:59 AM
So in regards to Trump refusing Putin's "tremendous" (how many times has he used that word now?) offer for him to interrogate US citizens, I imagine Trump was under massive duress to say no, since he'd probably have agreed to it if he was allowed.
...is anyone else picturing Trump bowing dogeza style before Putin on video link and saying things like "I'm so sorry, boss! They made me say no! Please don't hate me! I'll do better next time!"?
Actually, hacking the count in a way that materially affects election results is quite hard. There has been no evidence released thus far of this occurring successfully. However, we do have quite a bit of evidence of tampering with voter rolls, causing many people not to be able to vote.
This, this, this. This is a major thing, alongside the fact that we've seen their ratfucking amounted to targeting swing voters with literal fake news to convince them not to turn out.
Meanwhile in the ongoing saga of "people who were doing so much better two weeks ago", Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has decided her time is best spent lying about her defeated primary opponent claiming he's running third party against her and going to Kansas to campaign for a guy from Iowa Bernie loyalist against a LGBT Native American woman who's quite progressive for the district.
If by "massive duress" you mean "the Senate voted 98-0 to say that's a terrible friggin' idea", then yeah.
Apologies, I've tried not to track this as much in recent days, since it's only really succeeded in making me angry.
It actually somewhat surprised me that all the Republican senators also voted against. Seems that there actually are some lines they're not willing to cross.
It was a non-binding vote, with no actual effect.
They are very good at saying one thing, and then doing another... it doesn't suprise me.
I can now confirm that M84 is actually Samantha Bee, as she was disgusted but not surprised that Trump behaved as he did on Monday.
The Wanderer
Robert Mueller just submitted his list of evidence for the Paul Manafort trial and look whose name is all over the first 30 items.
Tad Devine.
Bernie Sanders' Chief Strategist.
Apparently he'd been in contact with both Manafort and Konstantin Kilimnik, who is connected to Putin up through June of 2014, five months before he joined Sanders' campaign.
Eating a Vanilluxe will give you frostbite.
Plot twist!
Seems like that Devine is some general advisor to politicians like Manafort was.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Asgore Adopts Noelle
... So Sanders might be in bed with Russia too? That's not good.
Trump and Putin discussed a plan to make Russian Separatists in Ukraine hold a Referendum on the fate of Crimea, according to sources close to Putin.
All things considered, it's a terrible idea that only serves to legitimize the Russians who illegally took Crimea from Ukraine.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Jul 19th 2018 at 6:52:22 AM
Sure, enough discrepancy becomes obvious.. but that assumes that discrepancy is either truly enormous or reported on. And the press was entirely mum about the stinky results last time, so..
Ok this is getting annoying.
You have not provided evidence that such fraud was common and you have not provided evidence that it can stop a wave election.
Russian interference matters but our electoral system is sufficiently decentralized that I am highly skeptical that they can stop a wave. That's not to say it doesn't matter but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and you haven't provided any.
If the discrepancy isn't very high then by definition that would only affect a close election (like say 2016) but would not be enough to flip a wave election like the one that is probable come 2018.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jul 19th 2018 at 2:58:25 PM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn