Pandemics and Epidemiology (COVID-19, monkeypox, etc.)

To clarify the 6 month window on the Pfizer vaccine. We actually don't know how long the vaccine will be effective for because the vaccine hasn't been around for that long. We can't say it lasts a lifetime because no one has had the vaccine for a normal human lifespan.

We don't fully understand the mechanisms that cause some kinds of immunity to fade, so all we can say for sure is if the trial participants are showing signs of fading immunity which they are not at this point. Hence "at least 6 months".

No...

How did you read “Vaccine confirmed to work for at least six months and protect against variants” and take it to mean confirmation of a need for regular booster shots?

Seriously, it’s a concerning level of fatalism if people are turning “confirmed to work for at least six months” into “only works for six months”. That’s kind of misrepresentation of facts gets people killed.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

Worst case, I've heard people talk about rolling COVID-19 into annual flu vaccinations that are a regular part of most countries' health care programs.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

Welp got my email today that I can schedule my first dose. I get it on Tuesday. My parents got both doses already, I don't know if my brother got his email yet. I may have been 'moved up' the list as I am not working at home and work for a Medical Equipment Provider.

My wife is getting her first dose soon. Heck, our son might be eligible by the summer. Things are moving really fast in the parts of the U.S. where people aren't complete fuckwits.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

The logic works in the "you'll need boosters when it's most likely to wear off" sense. Though I wouldn't call twice a year at most "often".

Edited by sgamer82 on Apr 2nd 2021 at 6:46:42 AM

The reason we don't know if the vaccines offer protection for more than six months is that nobody has been vaccinated for more than six months so far. You don't know if your new car will make it all the way to grandma's house because you haven't gotten there yet; it doesn't mean it's going to break down in the middle of the highway in the next thirty seconds.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

, : Yeah, exactly... I think they understood that logic... it's that 'confirmed to work at least 6 months' is by no stretch of the imagination 'most likely to wear off after 6 months'. It's just since it just came out the amount of data they have to work with limits it to confirming it for that length of time.

Edited by PointMaid on Apr 2nd 2021 at 9:52:14 AM

Don't be too hard, Silas, I think they just misunderstood the headline. "At least six months" could mean several things.

Optimism is a duty.

I got my vaccine today, now all that's left is to get a second dose in the 23rd and I'll be immunized

"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn

Two weeks after that, to be accurate. (Just don't want people getting the wrong idea about full immunity.)

Yeah, it's worth mentioning.

"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn

Mutations could render current Covid vaccines ineffective in a year or less, epidemiologists warn

Concerning, if true. Given how fast it's mutating because people refuse to take basic steps to reduce the spread because freedoms.

"Yup. That tasted purple."

That's a hypothetical. We must be careful how we present these things. Getting ahead of these mutations is the primary goal of vaccination programs.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

Trudeau is trampling on muh freedoms...he's denying me my precious vaccines!

In all seriousness, I am frustrated that vaccines are as scarce in Canada as they are. We are supposed to be a developed country for crying out loud!

Also, whenever I see people post about their vaccines, it comes off as a massive flex on their part.

I know they mean well, but all it does is remind me that I can't access vaccines.

Am I the asshole?

Edited by SkyCat32 on Apr 2nd 2021 at 4:55:41 AM

Your friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man.

When they say ineffective, do they mean pretty much useless or just less than say 50% effective?

All viruses mutate. This is a basic scientific fact. As with all other organisms, most of these are either harmful or neutral but some enable the virus to become more effective. This can mean being resistant to antiviral drugs, evolving new ways to enter cells, becoming more transmissible, etc.

Some of those mutations may change the features of the virus that antibodies and T-cells use to detect it. When that happens the virus can bypass previously established immunity, whether that be from vaccines or prior infection.

Virologists and epidemiologists are well aware of this. Seasonal flus and colds are a prime example: they sweep through a population, people develop immunity, they mutate to bypass that immunity. Rinse and repeat. There's nothing strange about coronavirus in this respect.

However, because it is so much more deadly than the flu, additional waves hitting populations that have reopened after mass vaccinations (or presumed herd immunity) can have devastating effects and lead to more shutdowns while new vaccines are developed, ad nauseam.

To combat these known, predictable occurrences, programs of isolation and vaccination need to move very quickly to stop the virus from spreading before it can mutate enough to bypass the vaccines. This means it should be of the utmost urgency for every nation to vaccinate as quickly as possible while maintaining restrictions to prevent too many people from getting sick in the interim.

Edit: The real danger is that some countries will pursue effective vaccination programs but others will not. The U.S. could inoculate 90% of its adult population by June, but Brazil could still be floundering around in single digits with inept leadership. Mutations in Brazil occur that make it resistant to the vaccines used in the U.S., it spreads via travel, and we're back to square one.

Edited by Fighteer on Apr 2nd 2021 at 5:22:06 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

The other problem is that COVID-19 has become extremely widespread. Naturally, the rate at which new mutations arise scales with the number of viruses in circulation.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

Have there been any vaccinations in Brazil?

Edited by Kaiseror on Apr 2nd 2021 at 4:56:36 AM

Yes. 2.4% according to Wikipedia. About half that of European countries and eight times less than the USA.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

I've checked the vaccine numbers of the European countries and most of them are just abysmal, I expected them to be better than the U.S.

It’s partly because the EU is allowing the vaccines they manufacture to be exported rather than hoarding them like the US and UK, so there’s comparatively less supply.

Most of Canada’s vaccinations so far have been with Pfizer, from the EU, so I’m very happy they’re doing that. The EU has also allowed more vaccines they manufacture to go to the developing world than the UK or US have.

US and UK are ahead of most other countries because 1) they’re manufacturing vaccines and 2) they’re keeping them at home, as well as 3) they’ve managed distribution efficiently.

At least that’s my understanding of the situation.

Edited by Galadriel on Apr 2nd 2021 at 7:42:49 AM

The UK isn’t actually blocking exports, it’s just that all manufacturing in the UK is being done as part of UK orders. So a company can build a factory in the UK and export the vaccines from there fine, but all the current factories were either built with government help (and thus their output goes to the government first) or were fully assigned to productions runs for the UK (unlike a number of EU factories which produce for multiple production runs).

Also there’s the technicalities around what counts as producing a vaccine, vaccine components are being exported from the UK to the EU.

Edited by Silasw on Apr 2nd 2021 at 1:03:04 PM

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran

So, short to a US-sanctioned coup d'etat against Bolsonaro or economic sanctions against Brazil, there's nothing the world can do on dealing with the Brazilian government to change course?

Is the Brazilian government actively preventing vaccinations or just refusing to actually put in the work to get them done? If it’s the later (which I believe it is) then other countries just need to do the manufacturing and help with the rollout logistics.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran