The Brazilian Politics Thread

Bolsonaro uses domestic violence to criticize social distancing. Link in PT-BR.

I quote:

There's so much wrong with this that I don't even know where to start.

This isn't surprising given his own history and the way he raised his sons to behave, but still utterly disgusting.

This is so expected of him I can't even muster the energy to be angry.

We're getting a new pronouncement this 20:30.

This Is Gonna Suck.

Prepare for pot-banging.

So Bolsonaro's pronouncement boiled down to him misquoting the WHO director in order to reinforce his "we should all go back to work" thing, then claiming credit for benefits and measures he tried to block over the last couple of days.

My sense of it was Bolsonaro basically admitting defeat with the mounting crisis (we're over 5.000 cases), government crisis and abysmal popularity numbers. Basically he played chicken with people's lives and the local powers and now he's the one who's starting to blink.

Who knows how his mind works, though.

It's basically what it was. He tried salvaging the damage the last week has done to his mandate by pegging the fault of what the people are going through on the social distancing measures and act as if he's trying to do something about the situation, but from the general reaction, it would appear he's failed miserably yet again.

You'd think that dealing with a pandemic of these proportions would be one of the easiest situations for a politician to make himself look good with, since it would basically consist of trying as hard as they could to ensure people followed the WHO's recommendations and reassuring them that everything will be fine if we continue to do so, but no, somehow he's fluffed the entire thing into a situation that might cost him the power he's obtained. It's perplexing to watch.

He's doing an even worse job of it than Trump, which is quite a feat.

There's a growing suspicion among Latin American reporters that Brazil may have just experienced a soft coup. Article links in the Twitter thread.

It would be the height of irony if Bolsonaro the coup-supporting military regime fanboy got ousted in a military coup himself.

Still not something to celebrate, though. Even if Bolsorano is a strong contender for the most morally bankrupt and incompetent leader in the democratic world, overthrowing him by military force could have even worse long-term consequences.

Edited by DrDougsh on Apr 4th 2020 at 10:43:49 AM

I mean, it's happened before. It was horrible.

As usual, I find this to be a foolish notion. The armed forces have no interest in assuming power here, behind the scenes or not. It's far too risky, and they've been burned by that one before, and they would benefit far less from doing so than they would from keeping things as they are. I know Latin American countries are a bit paranoid about military coups (and for good reasons), but I really, strongly doubt that's what's happening here.

What I would venture a guess as to having happened, is that Bolsonaro isn't the person in power at all, nor are the military: Mourão is. Bolsonaro is too much of a classical patsy: an easy face to hide behind while people worship him blindly, sort of like Trump and his cabinet, but in a slightly different fashion. Mourão, however, is far smarter and capable than Bolsonaro, and the people around him, his party and whatnot, are not only just as smart, but benefit far more. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say the entire plan was to eventually have Bolsonaro impeached and Mourão put in his place, where he can make a far worse, but also far subtler, gorvernment. It's what's likely about to happen, due to Bolsonaro's, let's call it "less than stellar" handling of the pandemic situation, which could have sped up plans for this kind of thing.

Plus, both Bolsonaro and Mourão are hardcore military guys, and yet, their official relationship is skewed: Bolsonaro would hold a far less important position in the army than Mourão would, and yet Mourão is the vice-president. A guy like that wouldn't accept this kind of thing if he didn't know he actually held more power than Bolsonaro himself.

The thing is, big power takeovers, open or behind the scenes, just aren't the style anymore. These guys are working on a system that already benefits far more people, the military included, if things continue the way they are. People complain less the more the basic system and it's illusion are maintained, and they complain especially less when they're distracted by a common enemy. Bolsonaro is an example, and an even bigger one for Brazil and most Latin American countries is the spectre of a military dictatorship. Modern politics is based on manicheisms like that: give people something they can easily point to and say "this is the villain that is causing all our problems" and they'll dedicate themselves to overthrowing it, because it's nicer and simpler to presume things are that black and white. In truth, there's no single power behind these things, unless one considers the entire capitalistic structure as one single power.

Ultimately, more power is held in the hands of capitalist moguls than any military these days, and the Brazilian military knows this. They remember how hard they got burned the last time they failed to take power, and want to avoid it. When they're smart, and right now they're being, they ingratiate themselves to those guys and let them rule. It's what justifies Mourão and Bolsonaro's "power dynamic" these days. Bolsonaro is the twit with the money, Mourão is the military guy ingratiated with him who actually gets stuff done. And the rest of the people around them are the smart capitalist moguls who keep stuff running. It's telling that a fear like that would appear right now: the pandemic has people scared, and scared people unite more easily, which can be seen by how much the country has been rallying against Bolsonaro, with even figures that were on his side before giving him lip. Given enough time, that could endanger the whole system, so the need for a common, ghost enemy is had: thus, rumours of the Evil Military running a dictatorship from the shadows, just like there were back when Bolsonaro took power.

It's easy to look at things like this, and assume there's one person or entity behind things that benefits from a big move like a coup, because it's simpler to think of and deal with. The truth is generally far more complicated in contemporary years. The entire system is corrupt and beneficiary to these people; presuming that the military alone are taking power is almost idealistic compared to that. Is there a power behind things in Brazil? No. Most likely, there are several, and they're all pretty good at bending the system they've got to use Brazil, because it's what the system was made to do. It's what it is: Brazil is a conservative country, despite what we would like to think of ourselves, and we're a conservative country who's repeatedly given power to more right-oriented people. Lula himself, the supposed big bad communist man in Brazil, knew that getting power here meant portraying himself as left-wing for the people while having to play the game with the right-wing. And he was smart enough to benefit from it himself before things went down the drain like they did. He got away relatively light all things considered.

So yeah, I kinda doubt that there's any truth to that. It's easy to have some big-name military guy appear as the enemy, and far too convenient to have a supposed behind-the-shadows coup be unveiled right during the time where people are more united than ever due to forces the government can't control. To my mind, the big money people are feeling threatened by both the pandemic and the fact that it got people together, and so they decided it's time for a new public enemy number one. A real military coup right now would disrupt the workings Brazil has right now, and far too many people, the military included, benefit from it too much to have that happen. But they'd really benefit from having people think there's a coup going on.

But hey, I've been wrong before, so who knows.

Doubleposting, because I read the links posted under that tweet.

I think this is actually a series of quotes being misinterpreted. It seems to come from an assertion by Luiz Nassif, a big journalist around these parts, that (link in PT-BR) "the de facto president right now is Braga Netto" (a military leader and Bolsonaro's chief of staff), which, having read it, sounds more like him saying that the chief of staff is more in control of the situation than him saying that the military has taken power. Mind you that the article in question was from two days ago, and today, an article came out where Nassif claims that (Again, link in PT-BR) "The problem's not Bolsonaro anymore, it's Guedes" (Paulo Guedes is Bolsonaro's economic advisor). Also, both of those links lead to articles that are basically copy-pasting Nassif's articles on GGN, which is where he has his column, so frankly, the articles sound more like scaremongering by said journal to me. (Links to Nassif's articles on GGN, both in PT-BR. On Braga and on Guedes.) I wouldn't say precisely the same of Nassif, but I do find the order in which those two articles came out quite interesting.

Relatedly, there's been word of a phone call to the Argentinian military forces, where Braga Netto himself said that they're now circumventing the president when it comes to decisions about the pandemic. First of all... yeah, I get it. That's about the wisest decision one can take in regards to Bolsonaro right now. But most importantly, again, does not sound, at least to me, like the military have taken control of the country.

What this all does sound like to me is a journal repeating what's been kind of the assumed state of Brazil lately: Bolsonaro's not really in power, the cabinet around him is. And that we all already knew. I would sooner bet on a coup against Bolsonaro alone to get him out due to his own actions than a coup to take control of the whole country. Like I said, it's not like they need or want to do so.

...sigh...

Bolsonaro claims that the Coronavirus is a media trick.

As a result, there have now been cases of patients harming their doctors when told they have the virus, and in some cities like São Paulo, protestants against the quarantine have begun to block ambulances on occasion. (link in PT-BR)

...I want to move countries now. Can I move countries now?

My friend, we're stuck here for the next two months at least.

Stiff Upper Lip, man, it's honestly all I can say.

Edit: Dude, that media trick article was from the 23rd of March.

Not that Escrotonaro is talking any less shit, but that's kind of outdated.

Edited by HailMuffins on Apr 12th 2020 at 11:27:21 AM

Oops. My bad. Slipped up a bit on my fact-checking.

...why did a three week-old article appear on my notifications this morning...?

Edited by TheLovecraftian on Apr 12th 2020 at 1:47:59 PM

Well if you want some more recent news:

• Country passes the mark of a thousand dead, 20.000 infected. Experts warn numbers could reach 10.000 dead. (link In Portuguese)
• Meanwhile, the President continues to meet with supporters in public gatherings and defends the end of social distancing. (Portuguese)
• Human Rights Watch calls Brazilian President Bolsonaro "a grave danger" to Brazilian populace.

Feliz ano novo, galera, que 2021 seja um ano mais light.

In all honesty, we don't even know how deep in trouble we'll be for 2021. We haven't even reached the middle of the year yet.

Teve show do Roberto Carlos então é ano novo.

Não questione uma das leis básicas da física.

In actual serious news: after voicing his approval to a manifestation asking for military intervention yesterday, Bolsonaro is being criticized by, well, everyone, including the Army (Links in PT-BR):

• Hours after President Jair Bolsonaro's speech in an act held on Sunday 19 in defense of military intervention and in favor of the closure of the National Congress and the Supreme Federal Court in Brasília, governors of 20 states signed a letter in defense of democracy.

• Military disapprove Bolsonaro's move to anti-democratic act

• Writ of mandamus to STF asks for limitation of Bolsonaro's powers.

Bolsonaro: "Backtrack backtrack, molify molify":

• One day after speaking in an act that called for military intervention, Bolsonaro defends Supreme and Congress 'open and transparent'.

While I'm at it, how reliable is The Independent?

Edited by HailMuffins on Apr 20th 2020 at 10:30:10 AM

You have to admire the man's sheer capacity for failure that he defended military intervention, only to be criticized by the military themselves for it.

But, well, this basically solidifies it. Bolsonaro leads nothing. Even the people following him blindly aren't really his; they follow his talking points, and if somebody appears who acts on those better than he does they're likely to turn on him with no remorse. It's just that this is basically making it official.

Putz, verdade, né

Well, (a good portion of) the military seems to have learned one valuable lesson from the dictatorship: controlling the country directly is more trouble than it's worth. Going against a direct intervention helps steer them out of problems while garnering more public sympathy, so they can keep pushing their agendas without having to really run things.

The problem is that this lesson had been learned before... when the Vargas coup and dictatorship came with their support back in the 30s.

The Indy is a somewhat decayed newspaper that tends to recycle news more than it does proper investigative journalism, but that's really the only problem with it. It doesn't tend to distort the facts for any political agenda - it's broadly reliable, and any errors are more likely to be due to lack of specialist knowledge rather than malice.

Welp, there's only so much BS you can take before you realize it's not worth sticking around... Lava-Jato's main paragon, Sérgio Moro, has just announced on TV his resignation from his office as Minister of Justice, following an entire debacle involving Bolsonaro wanting to assign people of his liking to top ranks in the Federal Police. Gonna look for links as soon as I can.

I know this is gonna plunge us into chaos even further, but allow me a moment to replicate that "Spanish dude laughing meme", please.

Edited by KusaMigeru on Apr 24th 2020 at 12:23:32 PM