British Politics Thread

So on the one hand, child poverty is set to reach record highs by the end of the parliament if the conservatives win.

On the other hand Corbs admitted he doesn't religiously watch the Queen's speech every Christmas.

Guess what the papers are more incensed about this morning

And now both "page 48" and "Jewish Labour Movement" are trending on twitter. I fully expect precisely one of these to be widely spread by the MSM.

Frankly, I'm terrified. I believe the Tories will actually manage to win a majority. And I see it as a cliff edge. Once Johnson has 5 years, he's not going to let go. I don't see Labour standing a chance by the time we get to 2024. Even if they did, how much damage will have been done by then? How many people will have died?

This is where I actually want one of you to tell me off for being hysterical, because I'm not lying about my perspective so I'd like to be told my perspective is ridiculous. I might not believe it, but it might give me hope.

I don't think they'll win a majority, I think we're looking at a Labour minority government or hopefully a majority government.

First, Boris is not going to be able to hold power undemocratically. The British Army won't obey, and neither will the Queen if she's still alive. (Prince Chuckles has no credibility one way or another.) Calm yourself on that score.

It's going to suck if the Tories win. But that means the failure is all on them, and disaster doesn't last forever. Entirely too many will die in Johnson's next term, but what that will lead to is people becoming so desperate that they'll have to turn to Labour, having lost confidence in the government. And when Labour is next in power, Leveson is going to be implemented and the dominance of the papers will be neutralized. And while Corbyn probably won't survive a decisive Labour defeat, the voters for Labour want progressive social democracy, and the next Labour leader will not be a Blairite.

And if Labour pulls it off (probably with SNP help - the SNP are going to fall behind Labour when the chips hit the table) then there won't be a hard Brexit - there'll be a choice between Norway Plus and Remain. And Leveson will be rammed up Murdoch's ass then and there.

I won't lie to you, there's storm clouds ahead. But there is hope one way or another. This, too, will pass.

For now just try to stay calm. And do not forget to vote.

This election is far too up in the air right now, I’m at the point where I won’t rule out a Lib-Lab collation where Swinson is PM.

Do your best to fight this, but prepare for the possibility for things to go badly.

Don’t worry about 2024 right now, worry about today, we will fight 2024 when it comes, I have faith that eventually we will win, even if we have to wait until the vast majority of the baby boomer generation are dead and buried.

I’d say there’s a fine line, one shouldn’t give in to fear, but one should certainly be afraid, these are scary times and that fear is how we try and stay safe.

But yes don’t just be afraid, be angry and if you can at all do something about it, vote, canvas, donate, yell at family.

We’re gonna win this eventually, but we win by fighting.

Edited by Silasw on Dec 5th 2019 at 12:26:23 PM

I think the Conseratives are going to wind up losing pretty hard,right now they're desperately trying to copy the tactics that the Republicans used but it's not going to work,the republicans won power because they were seen the change people were keen to embrace after years of Democrat rule,here they're the old party clinging to power having changed prime minsters 3 times.

You've also got 7 years of issues that go with being a long running party,if they do win it won't be a landslide it will be by the skin of their teeth and they'll be even more of a minority government

Well, what do the polls say? So far it seems like bad news.

The polls also predicted a solid May majority almost right up until the vote itself in 2017. There's a lot of dubious glances being cast at the polls right now, with suspicions that they aren't capturing the youth vote adequately. If at all.

Polls have showed things narrowing but Boris still with a lead, but polls have to assume certain turnout rates, which considering when this election is happening may not be reliable.

Also national polls don’t show what’s happening on a seat by seat basis, which is how things actually happen, that’s before you consider people voting tactically for a party other than the one they support.

538 has pointed out issues with UK polling in the past.

Based solely on the polls, I would predict that Labour continues its arduous rise, but it would ultimately not be enough to prevent a small Conservative majority. That would be, assuming those numbers are correct, but they almost never are.

Edge case scenario - Conservatives get oh so close to a majority...

... But Dominic Grieve overturns his own majority in Beaconsfield to become kingmaker.

I’d expect a Conservative majority. They’re polling over 40%, and at least in Canada over 40% generally means a majority government. On top of that, the non-Conservative vote is heavily split, resulting in the Conservatives having 10-point lead over Labour.

In 2017 the Conservatives were polling ata little over 40%, but by the end of the campaign period Labour was in the high 30s and the Lob Dems were under 10%; that’s a very different situation from now.

Unless the polls are incredibly out of whack, Johnson’s getting a majority.

Personally, I’d call it the consequence of Corbyn deciding not yo back Remain. Britain was split about 50-50 on Brexit; Corbyn’s created a situation where the committed Leavers are strongly behind Boris but the committed Remainers are disheartened and politically homeless.

Polls can't really take into account intentions for tactical voting or where the voting is coming from. The problem is that national polls are not the most super accurate things at the best of times and we're in an extremely uncertain political environment.

Which leaves us in a mess where the same polling could be indicative of everything from a hung parliament to a large Tory majority without any clarity as to which.

Edited by RainehDaze on Dec 5th 2019 at 3:47:07 PM

Also, vote share in a FPTP system doesn't really translate to seats very well. It's all dependent on seat by seat voting. The Tories gained in vote share in 2017 (+5.5%, which is pretty damn decent) but lost enough seats to lose their majority, after all. And that's at 42%, only one point off the vote share Thatcher had in her 1979 landslide which won her 62 seats.

And there are numerous reasons why Labour wouldn't unilaterally back Remain (which have been repeatedly expounded upon in this thread), and I really don't think it would have solved their problems as you claim they would have. Many hardcore Remainers who align more with the Lib Dems because of Brexit are still going to vote Labour tactically because the choice for them is Tories + Hard Brexit or Labour + Referendum between Soft Brexit and Remain.

If I had to point to one factor why Labour wouldn't win this election? The media is a shitshow.

It's just anecdotal, but I've heard that there's been some Tory M Ps, even in safe seats, out canvassing. Not sure if that means anything, though.

They might be worried, they might be just covering their bases. Showing their faces around etc.

Not much to go on tbh

Edited by GoldenKaos on Dec 6th 2019 at 10:22:44 AM

To be honest, nowadays I'm skeptical that most of the public even trust the media. It feels to me like they've become increasingly transparently biased over the years that even my centre-right-leaning family doesn't trust the papers.

Also, I was wondering - what's the difference between a minority government and a coalition? I'm assuming that the Tory government since 2017 has been a minority since no-one calls it a 'coalition', but I'm unclear as to what disqualifies it from that status.

That also brings me onto the question of who the Tories could partner with if they don't recapture their majority, which seems entirely possible. It feels like another partnership with the DUP is unlikely because IIRC they've had a bit of a falling-out over the Irish border question.

Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Dec 6th 2019 at 10:37:33 AM

if there is enough background noise you don't need to trust the media to have it influence you.

Also the Lib-Dems have already said they would back the Tory's if Bojos Deal gets a referendum.

Note: they said nothing about said referendum not being only about either the Deal or No Deal.

Edited by 3of4 on Dec 6th 2019 at 11:49:42 AM

Now I'm curious, since a few posts ago Silas said they wouldn't rule out a Lib-Lab coalition - what chain of events could lead to that happening, unlikely as it may be?

The main difference between a coalition and a minority government is that in a coalition the government is made up of MPs from both parties. So in the Cameron-Clegg coalition, the cabinets had numerous Lib Dems in them, with Clegg notably as Deputy PM, with the Tories taking up the rest of the roles.

A minority government does not have the numbers to form an outright government, so they make a deal with another party that the other party would prop them up - this party would not be part of the government, would not get any of their MPs put in as cabinet ministers, and would still technically be classed as an opposition party. The May-DUP deal is an example of this happening.

Edited by GoldenKaos on Dec 6th 2019 at 11:31:55 AM

I said that as a demonstrator that I consider everything on the table right now, even something that absurd and unlikely.

The most likely Labour government comes with an SNP-Lab coalition with Lib Dem confidence and supply that lasts at least long enough to see a people’s vote.

After that you’ve got an actual Lib-Lab government (with the SNP either as a third partner or agreeing to confidence and supply), Corbyn would have to stand down for this, making things pretty complicated, as Labour would have to elect a new leader who would then become PM. You’d probably see Labour buy the Lib Dem’s with a move away from FPTP.

Then you’ve got the crazy Lib-Lab government where the Libs get Swinson as PM, it’s a pure ego driven crazy scenario where Corbyn declares fuck it he doesn’t care about his person profile and buys Swinson off by making her PM of a government that’s mainly Labour.

If we get a Labour government I don’t see it lasting past 2021, but it might not have to, a people’s vote combined with Levison and maybe even some electoral reform could seriously help Labour come a 2021 election.

<shudders>

I'd still take that scenario over many others. But, imagining Jo Swinson as PM just broke me out in goosebumps. (Which, granted, is rather better than the hives Boris already gives me.)

It'd be a game of gridlock and stymie the like of which we didn't see even under May for most social policy.

Edited by Euodiachloris on Dec 6th 2019 at 1:31:14 PM

Seems as BoJo is indeed too craven for that in depth on on one interview