Recap: Star Trek Deep Space Nine S 06 E 09 Statistical Probabilities

After "Doctor Bashir, I Presume," in which it is revealed that Doctor Bashir's parents had subjected him to illegal genetic engineering—which usually disqualifies people from from serving in Starfleet—Bashir no longer has to hide his genetically engineered status. This makes it possible for him to openly research treating those who have been disabled by genetic engineering in some way. The doctor has four such victims brought to Deep Space Nine to study directly. The 'Jack Pack,' however, prove to be a disruptive presence on the station.

After preventing a ploy that would have been a significant strategic victory for the Dominion, however, Starfleet engages their services as analysts. They quickly prove their value and gain the respect of Starfleet Command...until the four decide that there's no way for the Federation to win the Dominion War, and advise the Federation to surrender.

When Starfleet refuses, the 'Jack Pack' undertake a plan to bring the war to an early end by handing vital information over to the Dominion.

Tropes

  • Adult Children: The members of the "Jack Pack" are each profoundly immature in their own way.
  • Anything That Moves: Lauren, according to Jack. Except for Jack.
  • Artistic License Statistics: If Bashir and the genetically engineered quartet really are super-geniuses, they should know right from the start that they can't make accurate predictions on the outcome of the Federation/Dominion war based on the limited data they have. But in order for the aesop to work, they need to be ignorant of this at first, so that they can all learn a lesson by the end of the episode.
  • Call Back: To "By Inferno's Light"—Dukat's and Damar's speeches end the same way:
    "This I vow with my life's blood...for my son...for all our sons!"
  • Continuity Nod: Their predictions state that the eventual Alpha Quadrant Revolution will begin on Earth... which is the same conclusion that Weyoun and Dukat came to back during the Occupation of Deep Space Nine, and also why they wanted to exterminate the population of the planet.
  • Disability Superpower: Averted. They're brilliant analysts because the 'Jack Pack' are legitimately brilliant, not because they've been damaged by their genetic engineering.
  • Earn Your Happy Ending: The Jack Pack predicts that a few generations after the Dominion's victory, a revolt will overthrow the Dominion and establish a stronger Federation to rule for millennia.
  • Gone Horribly Wrong: The "Jack Pack" all had their intelligence increased, but each was left with severe psychological problems - Jack's hyper-aggressive and anti-social, Lauren's sex drive was amplified and her inhibitions are nearly non-existent, and Patrick has the emotional maturity of a 5-year-old. Sarina's was the worst, with her brain working at speeds her body couldn't catch up with, leaving her cut off from the world.
  • Sherlock Scan: The group immediately and accurately details Damar's back-story after a single viewing of an unrelated speech he gives.
  • Translation Convention: Inverted—Jack turns off the translator and uncovers a key point in Weyoun's proposal that got lost in translation.
  • What the Hell, Hero?/"The Reason You Suck" Speech: O'Brien gives Julian one for advocating surrender and not accepting any other course of action. It's relatively mild as far as the trope goes, but still jarring.
    O'Brien: The way you're acting, you think that nobody with half a brain could possibly disagree with you.
    Bashir: Frankly, I don't see how anyone can.
    O'Brien: Well, I can see two possibilities: either I'm even more feeble-minded than you ever realized, or you're not as smart as you think you are.