French Politics

France got lucky a second time and Europe once again dodged a bullet.

But only to hit a smaller one, I'm afraid.

Legislative elections still loom.

The fact remains that Le Pen's score was higher than in 2017 (at least in percentage). If this trend keeps up, this does not bode well for the future.

I remember seeing that Melenchon did surprisingly well in the first round. My personal assessment of the situation is that more people voted for Le Pen not necessarily because they liked Le Pen more, but because Macron doesn't have the advantage of being the hopeful unknown like he was last time; now that he's been in power for five years and by most accounts hasn't done that great a job (I don't know enough to make a judgment call either way), many who voted for him before would be understandably upset and throw their weight behind any effort to get him out - with right-leaning protest votes going for Le Pen and left-leaning ones going for Melenchon.

This kind of reminds me of the US Democrat primaries in 2019, and how Joe Biden was ultimately picked because he was perceived as having a better chance of winning against Trump, and defeating Trump specifically was given a higher priority than advancing left-wing goals. Same deal here - I bet Macron benefitted a tonne from those on the left who wanted to defeat Le Pen at any cost, versus those who wanted to take a risk with a more left-leaning candidate (who'd have voted for Melenchon). Since Macron can't run for another re-election, I suspect that, unless another centrist figure takes his place, the next election will be between two extremes.

And you can bet Le Pen will try again.

Bullshit she's going to give up like she said she would. Assholes like her don't give up.

Never take a fascist at their word.

Edited by M84 on Apr 24th 2022 at 10:41:28 PM

By all accounts Macron's done a terrible job, honestly. Were he facing an even slightly acceptable opponent, I probably would have rooted for him to lose. As it is, though, the lesser evil definitely prevailed here.

Too bad the other two big candidates were also outright nationalist bigots. Le Pen's a fascist and Melenchon really hates Germany. Though Le Pen of course is far worse.

"Not a nationalist bigot" really shouldn't be the main selling point for a candidate, but it is what it is.

Edited by M84 on Apr 24th 2022 at 11:41:51 PM

If Macron can't be less of a neoliberal douchebag, he could be less of an arrogant, smug, insufferable jackass at least. He acts like some sort of invincible figure that just can't lose and the sad thing is he isn't exactly wrong since his opponent is Le Pen and I don't think decent people can afford her winning.

Seriously, sometimes calling Macron an arrogant, smug, insufferable jackass feel like I am bring redundant since that is his default state. If only his opponents are... let's say more acceptable, I would love to see someone put a dent to his infuritating smile. Ugh...

It remind of david cameron being the walking steriotype of the uper class british twit which in part let to the whole brexist buissness.

Cameron's problem was that he used the EU as a scapegoat for a lot of problems like other PM's before him. So his attempts to defend it during the referendum just rang hollow.

Cameron's image as a posh Englishman was more of an issue during the Scottish referendum. One of the reasons (among many) that it was close was because he pretty much embodied everything Scottish people hated about England.

Edited by M84 on Apr 25th 2022 at 2:55:27 AM

I think the jury's out on whether or not Macron is a neoliberal exactly. He definitely has some of the hallmarks, but one of the aspects of neoliberal ideology is the idea of appealing to and mobilizing far right voices to win elections and then use that power to strengthen the existing international order and implement the laissez-faire race to the bottom market society we all know and hate today.

But by and large neoliberalism as a political movement started with reactionaries like Wilhelm Röpke, who wrote and published a lengthy defense of South African apartheid in which he said shit like "the South African [racial slur redacted] is not only a man of an utterly different race but, at the same time, stems from a completely different type and level of civilization." The stated aims of the Mont Pelerin Society were an opposition to the welfare state and any movements for transformative justice along racial, gender or sexuality lines:

Feel like I might have heard that one somewhere else...

While Macron is absolutely pro-globalization and a ruthless free market type, some of his proposed European reforms, particularly in the loosening of some of the union's restrictions on monetary policy, could have been a great help to Central and Eastern European members of the Union ^note  and more openly socialist-friendly ones like Portugal as well. He is a Europhile at heart and in a way I do think cuts across a neoliberal reading of his politics. Neoliberalism is a doctrine of enforced participation in the free market, at gunpoint if necessary, and that's not really what he's been doing - at least not in public. Suppose we'll find out more when the archives open up.

I still don't like him, I just like neoliberals even less.

If people want more reading on the exact makings of neoliberalism, I recommend The Road From Mont Pelerin, an edited collection of papers about the origins of neoliberalism and its various different strains and, ultimately, what unites them all.

Edited by math792d on Apr 25th 2022 at 9:47:44 PM

For better or worse, Macron genuinely seems to believe in the EU.

Thanks.

In fact Macron seems to believe in the EU more than the EU itself. I keep reading in the Canard Enchaîné various accounts of him trying to push European Defence while the rest of European countries is content to rely on the US.

And that's about the only think I really like about him. The guy reminds me too much of the bosses I had when I worked in small service companies, who would come with a big smile on a Friday evening to give you an urgent job to do before Monday morning.

The way I see it, you can use a fascist scarecrow only so many times before people stop taking that warning to heart. That's exactly what happened here in Poland; the ruling party had no intention of cleaning up their act and the fascists - current gov of PIS - did their best to appear personable, present a cleaner front, remove some of the old ghouls from the storefront. They took the seat of power in 2015 and have been holding it since.

Macron has to build something people can fall behind, because Le Pen will absolutely try again. If not her, some other stain will show up. It only takes one win for the fascists, and France is the kind of EU member that we as Europe really can't afford to lose. However, if all Macron is going to be doing is "it's me or Le Pen, fuckers, whatcha gonna do?~", then this tactic will eventually fail him.

Spot for the scarecrow tactics. On the other hand, Macron himself will not be able to seek reelection in 2027. Though, unlike previous 2-term presidents, he is young enough he might try again later (because the limit is 2 consecutive terms).

It's not really a scarecrow exactly. That would imply the fascists are harmless like regular scarecrows.

Le Pen is more like that man-eating demon from Jeepers Creepers that pretends to be a scarecrow in the second movie.

The sad thing is, Le Pen is also a lesser evil. Compared to Zemmour, that is.

Edited by Forenperser on Apr 25th 2022 at 2:18:33 PM

Zemmour certainly did a lot to make Le Pen seem less extreme in comparison.

In hindsight, the comparison wasn't that good to begin with.

Still, the thing is; you can't just keep using the stick. Carrots have to be unleashed as well if you're going to keep your voters happy - because otherwise there's going to be a point where they will say "surely the other side cannot be that bad". Even if they reflect after, the fascists only have to win once.

Edited by FergardStratoavis on Apr 26th 2022 at 10:30:18 AM

I see that Macron has claimed he'll consider the folks who didn't vote for him as well. It's not an election promise, but fingers crossed.

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Apr 26th 2022 at 10:24:12 AM

Given how authoritarian he's been, I'm not sure he'll even consider those who did vote for him.

Hopefully that doesn't include the people who voted for Le Pen because she's a fascist.

I'm waiting to see how the new government looks, because it will tell us a lot about what Macron actually plans to do.

If either Darmanin or Blanquer are in it, it basically means that left-wing voters can go sit on a cactus for all he cares.

At least this time I will get to say that him being voted in is not my fault. I did not vote for either of them in the second round.