Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by Tabs on Mar 20th 2022 at 4:26:26 AM
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
There is absolutely nothing Russia can present as evidence supporting that Ukraine somehow blew up the dam from the outside with a rocket attack that no one in the area witnessed, especially since the amount of rockets they would need to use would be exponential, it would have taken multiple barrages to break the dam, but there's no evidence of that. There is ample evidence coming from Russian sources that they did blow up the Dam, from intercepted Russian communications of planting bombs to detonating them, the question is did they mean to blow the entire dam up or if they meant to blow a tiny hole to cause minor flooding that got out of control. Really the fact that the media even pretended to humor the idea that a dam of that size could be destroyed by a single Ukrainian rocket attack is very disappointing.
As for the offensive, concerning from the Russian side, as much as they like to brag that Ukraine still hasn't reached the main line of defenses the fact that Russia's supposedly committing their reserves for a counterattack means that what Ukraine has taken thus far was enough territory to worry them. That brings concerns about how good these defenses are if they're throwing units outside of these defenses instead of using them like they were supposed to.
Edited by Roguemind on Jun 13th 2023 at 3:28:52 AM
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2023
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met with 18 prominent Russian milbloggers and war correspondents to discuss the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on June 13.
- Putin discussed the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and signaled that he believes Russia can outlast Western military support for Ukraine.
- Putin indicated that he is unwilling to announce a second wave of mobilization or declare martial law, despite maintaining his maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
- Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general.
- Putin discussed the importance of formalizing volunteer formations, supporting the Russian Mo D's measures to centralize its control over operations in Ukraine.
- Putin is likely continuing to publicly engage with, and platform select pro-Kremlin milbloggers to further leverage the community to expand his support among Russian ultranationalists.
- Russian sources claimed that a Ukrainian missile strike killed Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) Major General Sergei Goryachev in Zaporizhia Oblast.
- Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on June 13.
- Russian authorities continue to express increasing concern over information related to Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).
- Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Kreminna frontline but did not conduct offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
- Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Bakhmut's northern and southern flanks, while Russian forces launched counterattacks in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and are transferring additional forces from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast to reinforce the direction.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the Russian military has recruited 150,000 contract servicemembers as well as over 6,000 volunteers since January 2023.
- Russian occupation officials in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast are reportedly continuing evacuation efforts, although are likely continuing to deny services to some residents in flooded areas.
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65901723
BBC has a profile on General Valery Zaluzhny. He studied at a military college when Ukraine became independent, so his experience only came from anti-separatist operations in 2014 onwards.
He's only of the (rare) few officers who didn't fully study USSR military doctrine.
Zaluzhny's targeted by both the FSB and pro-invasion bloggers/Putinboos worldwide.
Edited by Ominae on Jun 14th 2023 at 5:51:44 AM
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Didn't read it myself, but for the interested: Ukrainian forces are making gains, but the offensive is some way from its decisive phase; we must refrain from premature pronouncements of success or failure.
Goku Black
Yeah we won't know the full impact for a couple of months I would think.
"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
Goku Black
Per journalist Rob Lee: Russian Telegram channels are saying that a Russian unit was struck by HIMARS this morning on the Kreminna front with ~100 KIA and ~100 WIA. They were reportedly waiting near the front for a speech from a commander for hours.'
You can't make this shit up. Like this beyond onion stuff at this point.
"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane!
What’s a HIMARS ?
Edited by Lyendith on Jun 14th 2023 at 11:29:53 AM
Flippé de participer à ce grand souper, je veux juste m'occuper de taper mon propre tempo.
State of Mind
An American rocket system the Ukrainians are using against long range targets.
"What a century this week has been." - Seung Min Kim
Russians just keep astounding me with their idiocy. Didn't they know they were in range of UKR artillery?
I will become a great writer one day! Hopefully...
Surrounded by weirdoes
With the operational mess they have going on, probably not.
Wake me up at your own risk.
Ironic since the Soviet Army was all about operational integrity.
Perun did a pretty good video on the subject a while back, but to summarize an hour long video into a couple sentences...
Lying to make yourself look better is common practice in the Russian military. When it happens on every level, eventually those lies make their way up the chain of command to the point where defeats become crushing victories in official reports. I have a sneaking suspicion that those troops did not, in fact, know they were in HIMARS range, since their own reports are likely inaccurate due to various embellishments snowballing over time.
Edited by Riverstyx197 on Jun 14th 2023 at 6:40:21 AM
Surrounded by weirdoes
Have they tried to run away into their own minefields or something like that yet or...?
Wake me up at your own risk.
Actually, according to reports, in several places they DID run into their own minefields, resulting in predictable consequences. It does create the question how high the level of incompetence is.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a division of the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) near Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast while they were waiting for the commander of the 20th CAA to give a speech, prompting typical discontent among milbloggers about Russian commanders.
- Russian sources disseminated conflicting reports about the condition of Russian Duma Deputy and Commander of the Chechen Rosgvardia branch, Adam Delimkhanov, on June 14. ISW has not observed any visual evidence to confirm or deny the contradictory claims about Delimkhanov's condition.
- Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on June 14.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction and south of Kreminna.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and reportedly made gains in this area as of June 14.
- Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on June 14.
- Satellite imagery suggests that Russian helicopters defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine are likely deployed to an airfield in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.
- A Russian State Duma bill aimed at raising the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin may be aiming to shield specific generations from the demographic and social impacts of the war in Ukraine.
- Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to consolidate economic control of occupied territories.
King of the Rhino Men
“ A Russian State Duma bill aimed at raising the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin may be aiming to shield specific generations from the demographic and social impacts of the war in Ukraine.”
Question is, is how long this’ll last until Pu- I mean, uh, the Kremlin decides to renege on it.
Chain an angry nature god at your own peril.
I came across interesting information about those Russian troops that were forced to wait for general's speech and got blasted by HIMARS. Apparently, the idiot general who forced them to wait for his motivational speech was Sakhrab Akhmedov. Akhmedov was a Colonel and one of the two idiot commanders responsible for the massive armor losses around Vulhedar. Typically, he and that other commander, Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov, instead of being demoted for the heavy losses they suffered, they lied in their reports that the operations were successful and both got promoted, with Akhmedov being promoted to Major-General. Now, Russians are angry at Akhmedov for basically creating conditions to let one HIMARS strike to take out 200 soldiers, with some voices even calling to execute Akhmedov via firing squad.
I will become a great writer one day! Hopefully...
Goku Black
Uh Putin wants to avoid seeing any young Moscow or st. Petersburg boys die. That would seriously cause issues with his main base. So honestly who knows ? The thing Is if they were going to go to war. This should have been preped years in advance.
It's why you see the mass conscription of minorities and the depopulation of the occupied regions as their sent to war(albeit the later has a probably more simple reason. That Russia wants to remove the population here so they can replace with Russians. Not trusting the people their not to flip back. He wants the land. Not the people).
"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
Good luck with that. Russia already has their own demographic problems. Just getting more land won’t solve the problem.
Goku Black
The thing Is this war has already ensured that Russia is going to be set back decades (unless they got European help to bail them out). Their military will take decades to recover (this Is as I saw a couple of commentators mention. Their last conflict for a long time), their economy won't ever come back to the level prior, he destroyed the hold gas and oil has on Europe, and their population as already in decline and to have this.
I think he's just in the Sunk Cost Fallacy at this point.
Edited by miraculous on Jun 15th 2023 at 4:59:40 AM
"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
More than Sunk Cost Fallacy, at this point he might feel he's probably safer keeping the war going for years rather than pulling out in this state. He'll be placing a lot of hope on the next US election, but even if that doesn't go his way he might just keep at it.
But I really can't imagine the war truly ending while Putin's alive at this point; at most I could see a Korean style stale-mate. To be otherwise I think it would take total victory on Ukraine's part and I think that's extremely unlikely (though we live in hope).
Even Russians who were anti-war initially feel it is now neccessary to win (I think the relevant article about this was linked in the last couple of weeks).
Mad geologist
Yeah, that's pretty much the only plausible "out" that ends well for Putin. If not, the most probable option is "Discontent slowly builds up until an ambitious dude decides to become caliph instead of the caliph, coups Putin, optionally kills him, and uses him as an out for the war by blaming him on everything".
Let's face it. Putin fucked up. Immensely. And he knows it, by now. But the only out for him is pretty much taking the country down with him, so that's what he does, because he is also a ruthless sociopath on top of being a self-delusional idiot.
Edited by towerator on Jun 15th 2023 at 6:31:33 PM
There is also the issue that those Russians who don’t support the war but fear that the consequences of a completely lost war could have catastrophic consequences for them might have a point. Even if no all-out civil war breaks out, the internal strife this might result in could ruin the country even more and the “we don’t give a fuck about Russians as long as no one else gets hurt”-mentality of many in the West certainly doesn’t help.
The version of the narrative that made the most sense to me is 'The Russians intentionally damaged the dam, but the damage was a lot worse than they anticipated'
"Canada Day is over, and now begins the endless dark of the Canada Night."