Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by Tabs on Mar 20th 2022 at 4:26:26 AM
Goku Black
Tbh I get the impression this might have been Russian incompetence rather than malice. Going off the fact they first tried to downplay it and even went this is fine meme. It does seem like they got legit surprised this happened.
"That's right mortal. By channeling my divine rage into power, I have forged a new instrument in which to destroy you."
Oh, bother.
Tbf, the main conspiracy theory going around was that the USA attacked Nordstream. Which has still been proven untrue.
Disgusted, but not surprised
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
It's more then a little unjustified to call that a conspiracy theory, the US doing shady covert action to advance its foreign policy is well-documented.
The evidence for it is currently limited (though of course it would be limited either way given that we're talking about secret operations) but that doesn't make it a conspiracy theory. The term refers to intrinsically irrational and fallacious narratives that typically imply an unrealistically high degree of coordination/control from some entity, the US bombing a pipeline is well within historical precedent. It seems to have been incorrect but that doesn't make it a conspiracy theory.
There is very little reason for Russia to bomb Nordstream, it offered a significant economic benefit to them and politically it ensured that the European response was limited. They would gain little to nothing and lose a large amount by such an attack.
An anti-Russian actor launching the attack was always exponentially more logical.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jun 6th 2023 at 5:39:21 AM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
State of Mind
It should be pointed out that the article doesn't definitely say the Ukrainian military bombed the pipeline. It says there was a plan, months before the actual sabotage, to bomb the pipeline that was then shelved. We're just finding out about this because of the leak, but US government already knew about this plan, and might have discouraged it, which is probably why some American intelligence agencies said they had some low confidence in their suspicions the Ukrainians had carried out the attack. Some of the details in the investigation from European countries seem to match what the Ukrainians had planned, though there are some key differences.
Just a few months ago we also learned that Russian navel vessels, including a submersible, had been in the area just prior to the bombings. So I'm not ruling out either side, or a third, independent party, just yet.
"What a century this week has been." - Seung Min Kim
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
It might even be that Russia knew about the plan and did the deed to pin it on Ukraine and get Europe to drop their support of it.
I'm going to put my money on it being done by Larry.
"Any campaign world where an orc samurai can leap off a landcruiser to fight a herd of Bulbasaurs will always have my vote of confidence"
Assuming that Radio Svoboda isn't making stuff up, the general director of "Ukrhydroenergo" who runs the hydropower plants on the Dnepr thinks that in four days the river will be largely dry again, especially if they close the upstream dams.
Trans Siberian Anarchestra (it/they)
Considering that Mahathir has personally seen Malaysia liberated from Japanese occupation, become independent from Britain, and then act as a Cold War proxy state until well into his first term as prime minister... I don't know what he would answer, but I don't think the situation is quite so hypothetical.
Edited by Noaqiyeum on Jun 6th 2023 at 6:32:20 PM
The Revolution Will Not Be Tropeable
@Forth Spartan Well, I have admitted myself that I was wrong, just that I feel it was an understandable assumption given the situation. Nothing more.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023
- Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delta, river wetlands, estuaries, and shoreline settlements in Kherson Oblast.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukrainian officials stated that the drop in the water level at the Kakhovka Reservoir should not affect the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces intentionally destroyed the KHPP dam and suggested that the Russian military did not prepare for subsequent flooding.
- Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of destroying the KHPP dam and used the allegations to bolster ongoing efforts to portray Ukrainian assaults elsewhere in Ukraine as immediate failures.
- ISW has not yet observed clear evidence of what transpired at the KHPP on June 6 and is therefore unable to offer an independent assessment of responsibility at the time of this publication.
- Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of June 5-6.
- Russian sources claimed that the pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) are gone from a border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 6.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to directly threaten the Russian Ministry of Defense (Mo D) and the Russian military command if they do not fulfill his demands for a larger independent army and political influence in Russia.
- Ukrainian officials offered assurances that the damage to the dam and subsequent flooding will not impede Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks north and southwest of Bakhmut, and Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
- Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in southwestern Donetsk and in eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is part of the irregular 6th Division.
- Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to use infrastructure projects to integrate occupied territories into Russia.
Edited by Risa123 on Jun 7th 2023 at 9:06:11 PM
Lights Out!
Well, no. I don't remember the details, from my point of view this was an eternity ago. I mentioned Fukushima because I know that people commonly use it as an example of a scary nuclear disaster (along with Chernobyl), so I wanted to say that the nuclear power plant does not pose such danger.
And taken literally, Fukushima's reactors were operational at the time cooling failed, and ZNPP's are offline, so it would be "less" than Fukushima in any case.
Regarding the bombing of Nordstream:
- At that time, Russia was aggressively promoting the "Europe gonna freeze this winter" propaganda point, and already disabled gas flow to European countries that weren't Germany or Hungary. It wasn't inconceivable that they would sabotage Nordstream to send a message and panic Germany. They seemed to have already made peace with losing gas money for the sake of causing social unrest in Europe (since Putin seems to genuinely believe that the decadent West is constantly on the verge of collapse to historical forces a'la Edward Gibbon).
- My own disbelief that Ukraine could be responsible was mostly because, well, it doesn't exactly have access to the Baltic. Now I'm worried about how easy it was to smuggle military grade explosives from a war zone to EU.
- Although, if you allow me being a little conspiratorial here, it wouldn't surprise me if certain Eastern European countries could have helped this venture, if Ukraine put it forward. Eastern Europe hated the Nordstreams and Germany's suicidal energy policy.
- The biggest point against Ukraine doing this is ironically the same as against Russia doing this. They had a motive, but they risked fucking themselves over hugely for relatively little gain (as blowing the pipeline mostly only accelerated the inevitable). Their allies, on whom they rely on to survive, Germany and US first and foremost, could turn their backs on Ukraine if it was revealed they did this.
Although it seems that they didn't, so... all's well that ends well?
The state of TV Tropes.
Oh, bother.
All we know is that they had a plan to do it but shelved it. Probably because they realized it might alienate Europe and the USA.
Disgusted, but not surprised
The timing of this Washington Post story is kind of weird. I'd hold my breath before jumping to any big conclusions, esp since the source of the leaks is unknown
@Forth Spartan Well, I have admitted myself that I was wrong, just that I feel it was an understandable assumption given the situation. Nothing more.
To be clear, I'm not calling you or anyone else out. I just think that it never made sense to assume that Russia would do it.
That's the danger of the "Russia is irrational" thought-terminating cliché, just because they're irrational does not mean that they do things for no reason or that they would do so for any reason. There is a method to their madness and it does not lie with bombing their own pipelines.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jun 7th 2023 at 7:05:46 AM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
I mean they just blew up a dam in an area they believe is part of Russia…
Exactly, they're under attack so they destroyed critical infrastructure to slow Ukrainian forces. Self-destructive in the long term? Absolutely, but in the short and mid term the benefits are obvious.
The same was never true of destroying their pipeline.
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
Don't want to leave but cannot pretend
Scorched earth tactics aren’t a sign or a reason for thought-terminating irrationality.
Trans rights are human rights. TV Tropes is not a place for bigotry, cruelty, or dickishness, no matter who or their position.
This might show another thing, like how even Russians are convinced they will not be able to defend these annexed territories. Scorched Earth tactics have one purpose - deny enemy any resources on the captured territory.
Their act was barbaric. A war crime and an act of terrorism. But, it also shows how low their morale are and how cowardly they are to do such a thing. I wonder how this will bite Russians, though. Both in long and short term. So far, I know that Crimea is now starting to face water problems.
Edited by Risa123 on Jun 7th 2023 at 4:32:51 PM
Deranged X-Mas Figure
Apparently some Russians drowned in the flood.
So that's how.
Doctor Who — Long Way Around: https://www.fanfiction.net/s/13536044/1/Doctor-Who-Long-Way-Around
Who Am I?
The reason I always found it unlikely to have been either the US or Ukraine is because blowing up the pipeline hurt Germany and other Nato allies as much as it did Russia, and nether the US nor Ukraine would want to be caught doing that. For what it's worth, I think the most likely culprit is Poland.
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."
Also, the US would have other options open to them, considering Germany is one of their allies.
Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.
True, while US and Germany are not always in agreement when comes to policy towards Ukraine. It would be strange to do things in shady blow up stuff way when you can choose diplomacy.
@Forthspartan - I do agree. I was noting though in part because my impression was that you were initially expressing skepticism that Russia had blown up the dam as opposed to Ukraine.
In all honesty, while I find appealing the idea that Russia blew up the pipeline as a false flag, Occam's razor tells me that it probably was Ukraine. And even with my limited knowledge of the situation, tacit U.S. approval does seem kind of plausible.
Edit - But De Marquis raises good points. I guess I'd also say that the reason why I am skeptical (or at least don't want it to be) Ukraine and the U.S., is because that version of reality is too close to what a Tankie would think up.
Edited by Hodor2 on Jun 7th 2023 at 7:59:44 AM
No matter who it was, the fact it is so hard to decide who it was certainly benefits them.
Nordstream 2 gets a little more complicated, though there are still reasons for Russia to have done it. The hardest thing I have about blaming Ukraine for Nordstream is Ukraine doesn't exactly have the resources to do a movie like deep sea raid on a Russian pipeline with just a bunch of divers and explosives.
Edited by Roguemind on Jun 6th 2023 at 4:42:47 AM