This thread exists to discuss British politics.
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Recent political stuff:
- The vote to see if Britain should adopt Alternative Voting has failed.
- Lib Dems lose lots of councils and councillors, whilst Labour make the majority of the gains in England.
- The Scottish National Party do really well in the elections.
A link to the BBC politics page containing relevant information.
Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 3rd 2023 at 11:15:30 AM
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
Swinson would probably demand every position she has is sacrosanct in a coalition and if the partner isn't willing to sell out it's their fault for Brexit.
Edited by 3of4 on Dec 6th 2019 at 2:47:10 PM
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Captain of the Dead City
Swinson of a few weeks ago, sure. The sail has been taken out of her wings somewhat since then. She has been force-fed some freshly baked humble cake, and I really want her to lose her seat to the SNP.
"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Boris Johnson cancels speech after five protesters turn up
You utter coward.
"Yup. That tasted purple."
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Now don't be too hard on him. They may have been armed with milkshakes.
Figure of Hourai
Swinson's seat is the one and only time I've hoped that the SNP gain something.
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Foreign Troper
Whenever I see this guy, I just can't help but think he is Trump's little brother.
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
Captain of the Dead City
Which is strange for us Brits, he's been around the political scene for waaaay longer than Trump ever has.
"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Disasturbator
I swear Borris moonslights as a America president sometimes
thats the only explanation
New theme music also a box
Once upon a time there was a fantastical rumour that he might switch to US politics, given that he was eligible to be President on account of being born in New York.
Today Jeremy Corbyn's tenure as Leader of the Opposition surpasses that of William Hague. [1]
Edited by TommyR01D on Dec 7th 2019 at 8:05:15 AM
The Best Worst Psychonaut
Have the polls been updated lately? Last I heard, the Tories' lead had 'plateaued' while Labour's projections were still rising.
I'm getting the distinct sense right now that Labour can only win by, ironically, 'pulling a Trump' - basically relying on an unprecedented last-minute surge among overlooked demographics (such as youth voters and tactical voters) that defies the polls to squeeze out a narrow victory. I assume in order to do that, they'd simply need more seats in the Commons than the Tories, and not necessarily an outright majority.
Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Dec 8th 2019 at 12:14:00 PM
"If you think like a child, you will do a child's work."
Disasturbator
Meh,life is so unfair sometimes
New theme music also a box
A procrastination in of itself
It’s unclear what the polls are saying, there’s even variance between polls depending on if they ask voters a out all parties or only parties running in that voter’s constituency. Plus UK polling has issues anyway, on top of that national polling doesn’t map well onto a FPTP system, especially when you consider that tactical voting could see minor parties tank at the last second in many areas.
Labour might not need more seats than the Tories to win, if Boris is short of a majority and a deal can be worked out between Labour-Lib Dem-SNP than that might be enough votes to form a government long enough to get a people’s vote though (hopefully with a bit of Levison implemented aswell).
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Today's update on Electoral Calculus:
- Conservative 346
- Labour 225 note
- SNP 41
- LD 13
- DUP 8
- SF 7
- PC 4
- All 3
- Gr 1
Whelp, those are some bad numbers. It's going to take a miracle for labour to take it now.
The Best Worst Psychonaut
I find it interesting that, according to the Vote For Policies survey, the Green Party's policies are more popular than the Conservatives' nationwide - and in England, they had the most popular Brexit proposal.
Granted, less than 500,000 people have taken the survey so I suspect there's probably an unintentional demographic bias there (for starters, there haven't been many Scottish or Welsh respondents given the lack of SNP/PC support - said parties' policies don't appear unless you say you're from Scotland/Wales).
Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Dec 8th 2019 at 1:03:28 PM
"If you think like a child, you will do a child's work."
Oh, bother.
I kind of wish 538 would take a gander at the polls like they did back in 2017.
Disgusted, but not surprised
Why is it the closer the polling margin gets the bigger the majority that Electoral Calculus gives to the Conservatives gets?
"Yup. That tasted purple."
Captain of the Dead City
Just note that the Electoral Calculus's methodology only takes stock of national trends. While it is generally considered accurate, there's a lot of other factors in this election like tactical voting and the youth surge isn't really accounted for. They were wrong on the 2017 election for example and they predicted very similar results.
It ain't over till its over.
"...in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach."
Figure of Hourai
Their method particularly assumes that voting patterns are consistent between elections, as their method is to take a small sample and apply regression to every constituency on the UK based on its makeup to arrive at a result. Their result is very much "in a normal election based on our sample of opinions".
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Disasturbator
> Why is it the closer the polling margin gets the bigger the majority that Electoral Calculus gives to the Conservatives gets?
because the Conservatives really want to win and Electoral Calculus is biased towards them
New theme music also a box
Or maybe they are convincing people in the right places, while Labour is doing so in the wrong ones?
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Figure of Hourai
That wouldn't be represented in the methodology.
I'm really not sure how accurate you can be when your method relies on a rather small sample size and assuming that voting patterns and behaviours are the same as a normal election, when for a start we never normally have elections in December. It's already pretty weird.
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A procrastination in of itself
Note that the numbers posted are the middle of the ranges for everyone, that’s not actually how ranges work, their vote prediction shows Labour behind by 11 points, which doesn’t match to the most recent polling.
Their ranges make a lot more sense, with the 90% confidence interval showing the Tories getting 262-441 seats and Labour getting 136-300 seats. So there is a world where Labour get more seats than the conservatives, especially if the national vote looks closer than the 11% lead they are currently expecting the Conservatives to get.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Jo Swinson being kicked, or else deciding to actually back Remain instead of posturing while actually wanting Brexit so she can claim she was against it.