The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
... Why has this thread been renamed to include "(Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria)" in the title?
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Collector Of Fine Oddities
I skimmed an article from one of the weather networks during Irma that mentioned part of the ocean it passed through had water temperatures close to the surface recorded at a record breaking 90+ degrees F. That's borderline lethal levels for fish and well beyond for many invertebrates.
Because I have the impression that overly general thread titles are easier to miss fpr people who are looking for a particular topic.
^Yeah, the shadow of global warming. See also my post on the previous page about "big bullet".
Maria is again at Cat 5.
edited 19th Sep '17 6:14:16 AM by SeptimusHeap
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
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Cat 6 could be "Actually alter the landscape to such an extent you can't rebuild on it."
Salt the earth! Metaphorically. Because storm surges already salt the earth.
i. hear. a. sound.
No longer a forum herald
To clarify: hurricane categories are based on sustained wind speed and the destructive capability of the wind. It does not take into account factors like storm surges and flooding damage. A Category 5 hurricane has sustained wind speeds of over 157 mph/252 km/h.
For there to be a Category 6, it would have to cover the wind being capable of tearing away things like pavement, as that's about the only way to top Category 5. By that point, you'd be talking about any land not about 20 feet above sea level being completely removed, literally picked up and blown away.
edited 19th Sep '17 7:31:55 AM by TotemicHero
Expergiscēre cras, medior quam hodie. (Awaken tomorrow, better than today.)
And such a hurricane would have to hit land with such strength for the designation to make sense. Tip didn't hit land apparently, Patricia and Allen weakened quickly before landfall, Irma took a more southerly course.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Help is moving for Dominica
. Apparently the country had sent its rescue services north to assist after Irma. The regional CDEMA organization is coming from Barbados, Martinique and elsewhere.
It seems like Dominica has been effectively thrown out of the Internet and there is very little information coming out so far. There has been flooding and some fatalities in Guadalupe. The already devastated Virgin Islands (from Irma) and Puerto Rico are battening down their hatches.
Some indication that Maria is replacing its (her?) eye wall so it might weaken a little.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Face me now, Bitch!
If a Category 6 thing becomes a thing, may as well name the first one after Michael the archangel of War (If Maria managed to get that strong and wasn't already called Maria.)
Most Meteorologists would call such strong storms "Hypercanes", if I recall correctly.
edited 19th Sep '17 6:37:00 PM by Demongodofchaos2
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At which point we need to give said meteorologists a slap round the face for making them sound simultaneously ridiculous and awesome. That's a terrible name for a meteorological phenomenon.
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Face me now, Bitch!
It was a term used on Discovery's "The Future Is Wild," as well.
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Maria is now replacing eyewalls and the strengthening should now finally stop. It is now the tenth-strongest Atlantic hurricane, with a core pressure of 910-909 millibar even lower than Irma's.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
The Wanderer
The 2017 Hurricane Season Really Is More Intense Than Normal
You could be forgiven for thinking it’s been longer. After all, that was four hurricanes ago.
We crunched the numbers and talked to an expert, and it’s not your imagination: The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually active.
“This season has been an overachiever by almost every index,” said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for Weather Underground, a forecasting service. “We’ve had more than a year’s worth of named storms when you look at the long-term average, and that’s being just past the midpoint of the season.”
There have been 13 named storms this year. Only four other seasons since 1995 have had that many by Sept. 18. Just two more by the end of the year would put 2017 in the top 15 since 1851, when reliable records begin.
That almost certainly will happen.
“I would be shocked if we didn’t get at least two more,” Mr. Henson said.
Of the 13 named storms so far in 2017, seven have been hurricanes, a number matched or exceeded at this point in the season only four times since 1995. Four of the seven — Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria — have reached Category 3 or higher, the threshold for a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Only five other seasons since 1995 have had that many by Sept. 18.
More named storms have developed in the first three and a half months of the six-month hurricane season than developed in the entirety of the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014 or 2015 seasons, according to National Hurricane Center and Weather Underground data. “We’re running at about twice the pace of a typical season,” Mr. Henson said.
A few caveats are in order. August, September and October are almost always the peak of the season, and it isn’t uncommon for several storms to develop on each other’s heels, as Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee and Maria did from Aug. 17 to Sept. 16. And the phrase “above average” loses some of its significance when 10 of the 15 most active hurricane seasons since antebellum America have occurred in the past two decades.
What stands out is the combination of frequency and intensity. It may not be unheard-of for six storms to develop in a month, but it is very unusual for two Category 4 and two Category 5 hurricanes to do so.
So apparently the Bundeswehr (the German military) is in the area to help with the evacuation of the islands.
Maria is down to Cat 4 as the eyewall replacement is over. Landfall in Puerto Rico is about to happen, the hurricane will stay at that strength as it crosses the island if the NHC is right, which is coherent with the high water temperatures north of the island.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Professional Forum Ninja
MARIA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR YABUCOA, PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG CAT 4.
—————————————————————————-
LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES
edited 20th Sep '17 4:04:24 AM by tclittle
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Maria is down to Cat 3 and has moved off Puerto Rico in the Atlantic. I see that the temperatures of the water in Arecibo (Maria has moved off close to Arecibo) are about 30 degrees so it will probably restrengthen.
Reports of flooding, massive power outages and thus loss of communication, roofs being blown off and the like. There is apparently widespread devastation in Dominica as well.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Figure of Hourai
Yeah, I saw that there's no power in Puerto Rico right now.
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Down to Cat 2 now; that trip across Puerto Rico's mountains has disrupted Maria's circulation. That said here forward little windshear and high sea temperatures mean that the storm can most likely spin up again.
Are there already news coming out of Puerto Rico?
Also, it seems like the forecasters were badly wrong about how quickly Maria would strengthen. It isn't a minor error either - 45 mph can be the difference between moderate-heavy damage and utter devastation.
Maria is back to Cat 3, quite a bit earlier than forecast seems like.
Puerto Rico: Some parts of the islands are still uncontacted, especially the parts where landfall occurred. At least one fatality. Widespread flooding and wind damage have rendered roads unusable. And remember that Puerto Rico was still struggling with a debt crisis.
A major dam in Puerto Rico has failed.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/22/americas/hurricane-maria-turks-and-caicos-bahamas/index.html
According to this, it isn't a very big reservoir. One tenth of the not very large Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and not even close to the big ones such as Mead and Sakakawea.
According to the gauge water levels jumped yesterday and the dam is an embankment dam. Bound to fail shen the inflow overpowered the spillways.
The NHC has finally called off the advisories for Jose. Conversely, influx of cold air at high altitude has allowed Lee to regenerate.
I think building styles, codes and stock (as well as code enforcement) are going to have to be replaced and changed throughout the region, devastated areas or not. Loads o' Big Cats are going to become standard as we get into the middle of the next decade.
Cat 6 may have to become a thing, despite resistance.
edited 19th Sep '17 2:19:05 AM by Euodiachloris