A Song Of Ice And Fire

Define "common sense", please.

It's obvious to us, because we've grown up in a competitive market economy, which is something that only really became common in the 18th century AD.

I think I read this on Brett Devereax's blog, but I can't remember where exactly. For much of history, merchants were distrusted and looked down upon because people couldn't figure out where they made their money. Farmers gain (a little) wealth by planting seeds, tending fields, and harvesting food when it's ready. Smiths take metal ore, melt it down, and make tools and weapons out of it. Nobles get their money either by inheriting it, or by beating up somebody else and taking their stuff.

But merchants? Jeez, what they heck are they doing? They buy stuff, and then sell stuff, and somehow end up with more money? What's going on there? Where is the extra money coming from?

Yes, we know merchants provide a service by transporting goods from where they are made to where people want them, but if you're a peasant who has never travelled more than a few miles from your village, this seems like a scam. Likewise, if you're a noble who inherited his wealth, it doesn't make sense that merchants can increase their wealth without killing anybody. And Westeros has been in the Early Modern period for several centuries now, so that is the standard viewpoint.

It should be remembered that all memes have a beginning. No matter how obvious something might seem, somebody had to think of it first. Take the wheel, for example. It's one of the simplest machines there is. Just looking at it, it's obvious that it's super useful for moving heavy objects, right? OK, but the Egyptians and the Mayans built their giant pyramids without wheels. The Mayans had wheels, but only on children's toys; it never crossed anybody's mind to make big wheels to transport heavy loads. The Egyptians were known for using chariots, but to make them, they had to import the wheel meme from Sumer.

And that's something as simple, straightforward, and tangible as the wheel. Compare that to something as complex and abstract as an economy, and it's actually pretty clear how Littlefinger's shrewdness would look impressive.

What I've heard is that using the wheel for transportation is tied pretty directly to having beasts of burden. If you don't have domesticated horses or oxen or whathaveyou to pull those wheeled vehicles, and are just relying on human muscle power, you're gonna get mighty sick of 'em the first time those wheels hit some thick mud or a rut in the road.

Edited by RavenWilder on Apr 9th 2022 at 3:50:18 AM

It's always interesting to see how the biomes and geography affect the development of a society. Heck, it's discussed often in regards to the Iron Islands. And we can all see how the lack of beasts of burden known as dragons affected Westeros when it came into contact with a people that did.

In regards to Littlefinger and his economic wizardry, he is keen enough to understand vertical integration, but I wonder how much of the uniqueness of his actions come from the fact that he's doing them as Master of the Coin. The crown typically gets its wealth through taxes and/or labor, and as VB pointed out the king can just seize money or assets of equivalent value if the situation calls for it. Rather that operate its own clothing industry, I would imagine it being more typical to just tax all the parties involved.

I was initially annoyed they removed Petyr's financial wizardry in the show but then it occurred to me that if Petyr had been embezzling as well as deliberately undermining Robert's regime no one would be able to tell.

And that was just three dragons belonging to a Valyrian family that wasn't that high up in Valyria originally. Imagine how fucked Westeros would have been if the full might of Valyria prior to the Doom fell upon them.

For all we know other Valyrian families might have had dragons even bigger than Balerion.

Edited by M84 on Apr 9th 2022 at 9:51:03 PM

I was about to make the "[X] OP, nerf please" joke about Valyria but, as your post mentions, that's rather redundant since they already got Numenor'd.

Oh, he was almost certainly embezzling. He started with virtually no wealth of his own; I don’t think his buisness empire is all coming from him investing his salary as Master of Coin.

But if he’s getting the crown, like, a 50% return via business investments, and skimming 5% off the top, no one but him and maybe Varys is going to know.

Edited by Galadriel on Apr 11th 2022 at 7:19:28 AM

-Reads background stuff-

Hm. So Valyria had plenty of time to invade Westeros back when they were the reigning super power, but for some reason they avoided it like the plague?

There's also implications that he's creating unnecessary costs for the crown, probably to make it default on its debts after he left. For example, Jaime discovers in AFFC that there are several superfluous positions filled and paid for in the Red Keep prison system, basically to the point that there are prople there who are paid for doing essentially nothing. For another example, Tyrion learned that LF had recently loaned out a lot of coin to a bunch of merchants who were then executed by Joffrey for supporting Stannis.

So yeah, he almost certainly took advantage of his financial savvy to both embezzle and actively sabotage the Westerosi economy (or at least the royal finances) for his own benefit.

Maybe they simply dismissed it as a barbarian backwater, compared to potentially more juicy targets further east (Yi Ti, etc.)? Or they planned to get there eventually, but got distracted with revolts in conquered territories, coups and civil wars to really get serious about it.

Edited by Kardavnil on Apr 10th 2022 at 10:27:44 AM

Yeah, the farthest West that the Freehold expanded was to Dragonstone.

I doubt if that's deliberate sabotage. Sounds more like what you'd get when people call in favors to get themselves or a friend/relative a job, and you don't want to let them down, but you don't want to put an unqualified person in charge of something important, either. So you make up a fake position, get them a salary, and as long as no one examines the corporate org chart too closely, everyone's happy.

Yeah, the entire royal government was basically a cesspit of corruption.

Heck, there are plenty of examples in history where it was national policy to give people functionally useless jobs or titles because putting them on the court's salary made them less likely to cause trouble and plot against the ruler. People generally don't bite the hand that feeds them.

That and thinking you have a usefull job is good to temper your ambition.

In general, I find littlefinger manage to get away because he is pretty much a financial schemer or a modern mobster in a fantasy setting with a medivial(or pseudo medivial) understanding of finance, that is why nobody really bother to investigate how he make money, he make and that it.

For all its power, Valyria still had the same issues as any other empire. It expanded too far too fast and then had to struggle just to keep what it had. That's why Westeros was mostly untouched by them. Still, Valyria likely would have gotten to them eventually if the Doom hadn't happened.

Then again, the Doom was what led to Targaryens to flee to Westeros, so you could argue that it accelerated conquest of Westeros by what was left of Valyria.

He also doesn't have a very high pedigree as far as Westerosi nobility is concerned - his grandfather was a foreign sellsword and his fief is some crappy tower in what might as well be the middle of nowhere - which is likely another reason why people underestimate him.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Apr 11th 2022 at 1:10:34 PM

Hey, at least he has a ready supply of mutton, what with his smallfolk probably being outnumbered by their sheep

Could someone refresh my memory? I don't remember the part about superfluous positions except vaguely in terms of how it connected to Varys being Rugen.

With that said, I'd think the shell positions in the Red Keep can probably be attributed to Varys and not Littlefinger. To the extent that it's not just the typical cronyism and patronage that would be typical in many places throughout history.

I can't remember if there are other details, but I thought the indication of Littlefinger embezzling was how the treasury goes from seemingly flush to bankrupt by time Cersei takes over and even with Robert's improvidence this doesn't make sense (and I don't think this is just Martin doing a Fisher King with Cersei).

Relatedly though, while I think it's "realistic" that Tyrion/a noble finds Littlefinger's financial dealings impenetrable, I do find it kind of annoying that the transition from feudalism to capitalism is represented by one character (who is one of the most evil people in the story). And like how there's almost no detail given about the merchant class.

Is not a transition per se, is more a little bit anacronistic because Little finger is base on great gatsby and you can feel at times he suit the whole "Liars with money" angle, at times he feel closer to a mobster in a "let me do you a favor" and understanding of finance to con people(and what a con he did).

There isn't really a big focus on merchants at all, which is rather odd for a medieval(ish) society.

Historically, the merchant class often ended up being the biggest contributors to a monarch's war chest (voluntarily or involuntarily) because the nobility turned out to be shit at money management (and so did the king).

The closest thing we do get to mercentile politics is the Iron Bank, which is heavily based on the Italian banking houses that sprung up during the Middle Ages - though it's obviously more powerful in that a monarch can't just not pay them back (for a historical example: Edward III actually collapsed some of the Italian banking houses' English branches by refusing to repay the loans he took for another one of his military adventures).

I remember that Robert specifically kept Slynt around because his successor might be even worse, which Slynt got into his head of "I have friends at court."

I think Slynt' "friends at court" attidude was more because of Cersei and Littlefinger involving him in the plot against Ned and him subsequently being made a lord.

Being rewarded on such a ludicrous level (making a butcher's son Lord of Harrenhal was pretty controversial among the nobility) gave him a big head and deluded him into thinking Cersei and Joffrey got his back.

And then he got a nasty reality check when Tyrion just shipped him off the Wall, with nobody raising a finger to help him.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Apr 11th 2022 at 1:58:19 PM

Ooooo,that reminds me of Cardinal Wolsey,similar deal,guy was the son of a butcher (allegedly) but ended up as a cardinal and close ally of Henry VIII

Well even the Harrenhal reward should have been an indication. Nobody could be expected to maintain that place without either bankrupting themselves or having something horrible befall them, as has happened with every lord of the place since Harren the Black.

It's not a coincidence that even the not-superstitious-at-all (as far as we can tell, anyway) Littlefinger has not set one foot anywhere near that place, even though he's supposed to be its lord. Doesn't he even say he intends to tear it down and build a more manageable castle once he gets the chance?

Edited by Kardavnil on Apr 12th 2022 at 1:13:14 AM