Hong Kong discussion

A number of demonstrators who were blocking major roads in Causeway Bay were arrested on Sunday night by a group of uniformed police officers with the help of men who were dressed exactly like anti-government protesters.

Like the demonstrators, they were wearing black t-shirts and black masks. However, some of them were filmed holding batons, standing right next to uniformed officers.

One protester told RTHK a group of them were ambushed by these identified men.

“About 20 to 30 masked men wearing black clothes and holding sticks charged towards us from different directions,” he said. “We thought they were triads and started fighting with them. Suddenly, 60 to 70 riot police officers rushed towards us, pushed many people to the ground and arrested them, but I escaped.”

When a group of journalists walked up to ask whether these were undercover officers, a large group of uniformed officers intervened, blocking the reporters from chasing after the masked, black-clad men, and escorted them away.

In the process, they waved their batons at the journalists, and brandished pepper spray at them, without actually using it.

Another group of people dressed in protesters’ garb ignored RTHK reporters who repeatedly asked them to confirm whether they were officers before they boarded a coach.

Live video from the scene showed a number of men dressed as protesters helping police to subdue demonstrators.

At the same time, two men were seen bleeding profusely from head wounds in the area. One was given first aid at an MTR station, leaving behind a pool of blood.

Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific warned its staff on Monday that they could be fired if they "support or participate in illegal protests", as the airline comes under pressure from Beijing.

The warning follows new regulations imposed by China's aviation regulator requiring Cathay Pacific to submit manifests of staff on flights to the mainland or through its airspace.

Beijing told the airline that staff involved in the protests that have gripped Hong Kong for more than two months would be banned from flights to the mainland.

The airline has already said it will comply with those regulations, citing the importance of its business in China and the requirement to adhere to local rules.

But in a Monday message to staff, chief executive Rupert Hogg reiterated that Cathay Pacific employees would also face "disciplinary consequences" if they get involved in the pro-democracy protests.

"Cathay Pacific Group has a zero tolerance approach to illegal activities. Specifically, in the current context, there will be disciplinary consequences for employees who support or participate in illegal protests," Hogg wrote.

"These consequences could be serious and may include termination of employment."

Hogg also specifically warned employees not to support or participate in a new protest at Hong Kong airport called Monday.

And he reminded staff that the "actions and words of our employees made outside of working hours can have a significant effect on the company."

The protests in Hong Kong have infuriated Beijing and left Cathay Pacific in a difficult position.

It has already suspended a pilot who has been accused of rioting after allegedly participating in the Hong Kong protests.

And it said Saturday that it had fired two airport ground staff, without specifying why. Local media reported that they were accused of leaking the travel details of a Hong Kong police football team that was travelling to the mainland.

The firm is facing a boycott call in China, and its shares dropped more than four percent in Hong Kong trade on Monday

While China might be exploiting fears of a bloody "Tiananmen" crackdown on Hong Kong's protest movement, analysts say the potentially catastrophic economic and political consequences will deter Beijing from any overt boots-on-the ground intervention.

As the clashes between pro-democracy demonstrators and police in the former British colony have grown increasingly violent, Beijing's condemnation has become more ominous, with warnings that those who play with fire will "perish by it".

At the same time, the military garrison maintained by People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong released a video showing an anti-riot drill in which soldiers with assault rifles, armoured personnel carriers and water cannons disperse a crowd of protesters.

The images and stepped-up rhetoric have fuelled concerns that Beijing could forcefully step in — fears that some analysts suggest China is actively playing on.

"Beijing wants to use the threat of sending in the PLA, or other direct intervention, to try to scare off the protesters," said Ben Bland, research fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

"But given the high level of operational risk –- and the reputational and economic risks to China –- sending in the PLA would be a dangerous move," Bland said.

China's brutal 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Beijing's Tiananmen Square resulted in two years of economic near-stagnation as the country became an international pariah.

The fallout from any similar intervention in Hong Kong would be far more severe.

The long-term stability of the international financial hub is crucial to China's economic well-being, and images of Chinese troops or riot police on the streets would be broadcast and live-streamed around the world.

It would also have a major impact on Beijing's ambitions to reunify the mainland with the democratically-governed island of Taiwan.

For the moment, China has restricted itself to voicing its total support for the Hong Kong police force.

- Lessons learned -

But while Hong Kong law states that the PLA troops stationed here cannot interfere in local affairs, it does allow for their deployment at the request of the Hong Kong government to "maintain public order".

And security experts note that in the 30 years since Tiananmen, China has developed a sophisticated security control apparatus that allows far more options for quelling unrest than simply sending in the tanks.

According to analyst Wu Qiang, a former politics lecturer at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China learned its lessons from the 1989 crackdown as it conducted numerous "exchanges" with police forces in Europe and the United States.

"A large part of this was exchanges on how to deal with political riots and peaceful protests," Wu said.

Those methods were on clear display in the PLA garrison drill and another video distributed last week showing thousands of Chinese riot police conducting a similar exercise in Shenzhen, on the border with Hong Kong.

In both videos, security forces in full riot gear and tight formation used tear gas and shields to corral and disperse "protesters" dressed in construction hats and facemasks — reminiscent of demonstrators in Hong Kong.

While the techniques were modern, Wu stressed that the ability to deploy them effectively in Hong Kong was another matter.

"The Chinese regime has no experience of suppressing riots in a free society," he said.

And even if it was able to carry off a non-lethal intervention, the optics of Chinese forces in the streets of Hong Kong in any capacity would still provoke near-global concern and outrage.

- Covert ops -

Political analyst Willy Lam, from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, suggested Beijing could consider a more covert method of sending its own troops or police in.

"They will be wearing Hong Kong Police uniform so it won't be a formal deployment," Lam said.

There have already been rumours that such an exercise is underway, leading the Hong Kong Police to issue a statement last week flatly rejecting "allegations" of mainland reinforcements among their ranks.

One of the leaders of the 1989 Tiananmen protests, Wu'er Kaixi, argued that the Chinese leadership was too driven by self-interest to consider any armed intervention.

"I believe they have learned the lesson that the price of using the military is very high," he said from Taiwan, where he now lives.