Eastern European Politics

As long as Fidesz is in charge, he'll get away with it.

A recent analysis from the CEU points out that a Fidesz-supporting conservative middle class is forming in Hungary but if the economy were to ever experience a downturn, they'll likely to evict Fidesz. Especially since Fidesz are banking absolutely everything on one single guy as their public face, will crumble without him and don't dare to risk entering a fair election.

So Orbán can push all the rhetoric he wants, I simply stop paying attention and comfort myself in the thought that no amount of connections or ill-gotten money can defy death by old age and since he's already well into his fifties while I'm not even 30, I'll be alive to see Fidesz' downfall one way or another. So I'll just quietly keep voting against them every election and leave it at that, since I'd rather not risk retaliation against my employer by participating in public rallies and such.

As posted over in the Middle East thread, Hungary tried to stall and veto the EU's warning to Turkey for the latter's offensive into Kurd territories in Syria. The veto was only dropped and the warning unanimously accepted when the offensive actually began.

Hungarian officials first dismissed the stalling as fake news, then the foreign minister's reasoning for the veto was "the EU destroy their own global political credibility if some individuals in Brussels think we always have to express an opinion about everything". He's personally agreeing with the Turkish idea of the security zone - but still, stalling the warning is a colossally stupid idea, especially since Erdogan's response was pretty much telling the EU to shut the fuck up or he'll send another 3.6 million refugees our way.

Barely a week before the municipal elections, the Fidesz mayor of Győr got involved in a major sex scandal that rattled Fidesz' ranks something fierce, with some within Fidesz distancing themselves from it, condemning it and demanding that the guy should resign while others trying to suppress and dismiss it as inconsequential in order to not break ranks before the elections. Orbán himself who should have the last word in how to handle it is currently in France and thus unavailable, so Fidesz are running around like headless chickens while the opposition pounced like a predator, declaring that this is how rotten Fidesz is behind the oh-so-conservative-and-Christian facade.

Even Fidesz' own forecasters are stating that tomorrow's elections will be interesting, as the Budapest mayoral election chances were already head-to-head between Tarlós and Karácsony already and this couldn't have come at a worse time for Fidesz.

Gonna be curious to see what this evening brings with the elections. Apparently voter turnout is pretty solid this time around.

Pi S is projected to win, but hopefully they won't get the absolute majority.

Oh right, forgot our Polish bratanki have elections today as well! Best of luck! *highfive*

The name of the game is indeed damage control.

Soon we'll know the results, and by tomorrow all margins of error will be done with. The current questions are two:

• Can PIS rule on its own?
• Failing that, will the banditry that is Konfederacja make it, and thus become a convenient partner for PIS to ally with?

If the answer turns out to be no to both of these questions, the opposition as a whole (so PO-KO, the Left and PSL-Kukiz) may have a better result. Now, PIS can still rule in that situation (the minority cabinet), but not having neither enough people to push their laws nor a convenient scapegoat to ally with and then throw all the blame on (like Samoobrona and LPR back in 2005-7) will make it hell for them.

Literally everything fucked up:

• PIS rules undisputed
• Konfederacja is in
• Even if those wastes of skin went together with the rest of the opposition, they would still have less mandates combined than PIS.
• Naturally, I expect them to march in lockstep to pass their despicable laws; opposition or not, they're likely to agree on most things PIS does (economy aside)

So this entire election is lost.

EDIT: Alright, I might have gotten a little heated up. The real results will only come in tomorrow or so; there's a chance Konfederacja might not get in, at the very least (though that means PIS is likely to just get more votes)

Edited by FergardStratoavis on Oct 13th 2019 at 9:32:38 PM

Tallying is still ongoing but it's now certain that Fidesz has lost Budapest's mayoral seat. Tarlós already called Karácsony up to congratulate him and so far the only statement from Fidesz so far is that they respect the citizens' decision and will cooperate with Karácsony.

Time will tell whether they'll stay true to their word.

Edited by amitakartok on Oct 13th 2019 at 10:13:00 AM

Results say Fidesz lost seven major cities and at least nine districts in Budapest. Turnout was high but not record-high. Miskolc and Budapest in particular are treated as a major victory by the opposition, with forecasts having predicted a much smaller lead for the victor in both.

On a personal note, my hometown and the nearby city were both bagged by the opposition, so I'm satisfied.

There's still hope. For now.

That is all very encouraging, mate.

Yeah, good to see the opposition finally being able to get its shit together rather than play the blame game. There was still a hiccup in Győr where only days before the elections, the local Jobbik members suddenly quit the coalition and declared it a left-appeasing sham. They were subsequently caught on camera drinking together with a rival independent candidate's people, whom they earlier denied they supported. Fidesz bagged the city as a result, despite their candidate's sex scandal around the same time.

Jobbik's national leadership stripped these dissenters of their membership and expelled them from the party.

Edited by amitakartok on Oct 13th 2019 at 1:02:42 PM

Results summary:

• Fidesz maintained their control over the countryside so all county community councils remain under their control.
• However, Fidesz lost control in about 30% of all communities with a population above 10k and 50% of all communities with a population above 20k.
• Both cities Orbán personally visited before the elections were won over by the opposition.
• The opposition gained control of multiple cities in the vicinity of Budapest.
• The opposition gained control of 14 districts of Budapest out of 23, majority in the community councils of two more districts, the capital mayor seat and absolute majority in the community council. Two downtown districts that had been Fidesz strongholds had switched sides.

In other words, while Fidesz is still being held up by countryside folk, the downtown citizenry are starting to turn away from them. One analysis I read states that Fidesz fucked up their campaign by being too passive and dependent on their tried-and-true arrogance and claiming external threats to the nation, then being indecisive and fragmented over the scandals some of their own got caught in (the guy who had that sex scandal in Győr got reelected, by the way, so now Orbán can't discipline him with forced resignation without defying the people's will, nor can he protect him without digging his own grave ). Camaraderie and loyalty are a double-edged sword if the other guy is blatantly abusing it to shield themselves from their own actions.

As soon as the stock market opened today, the corporate group that serves as Fidesz' economic background lost 13 billion in value in just a few minutes.

The Guardian believes that there are some reasons to be optimistic, or at least not pessimistic about the election results in Poland and Hungary.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/election-results-opposition-poland-hungary

In Hungary it points to the same observations made by amitakartok, while in Poland the fact that the opposition gained control of the senate is reason for some hope. Still it is depressing to see that Pi S was so succesful with their program. It is one thing that they stroke up resentment against Germany and the EU; a bad thing and potentially dangerous in the long run. But their vile defamation campaign against the vulnerable LBGT minority is so incredibly despicable.

Just how bad is this mayor's sex scandal? Adultery? Harassment? Assault?

Hookers and blow by (presumably) using taxpayers' money, essentially.

Video footage of him, his confidants and his lawyer having an orgy with whores on a yacht, the youngest of whom are younger than the mayor's own daughter. Because yes, the mayor is married and has children.

He initially tried to deny, but later admitted that yes, it happened years ago and yes, his family knew.

The opposition's tactical handling of it was very good, too. They waited for several days for it to disseminate all over the news before picking it up for their own propaganda, so that nobody would accuse them of making it up.

Edited by amitakartok on Oct 14th 2019 at 12:26:04 PM

So, the polish government plans to ban Sex-Ed. in schools. Including arresting and incarcerating teachers for at least three years, if they teach it.

...so, seems like they wanna go full puritan now. Guess that election victory emboldened them severely.

Make that five years.

As far as I know, this ban doesn't really include Sex-Ed in schools (which doesn't really exist in the first place outside of a minority of places), but an umbrella set of things vaguely related to it. Someone pointed out that they can be sentenced for bringing their daughter to a gynecologist, for example.

There's been some protests in response, but given that PIS holds most cards and may or may not have Confederation support (for all of their anti-PIS talk I expect them to vote in line with most PIS-approved laws, as far as social and ethical things are concerned, at least), I doubt their effectiveness.

...Holy shit.

I mean, what is the end-result of that? The christian version of Saudi-Arabia?

...basically, yes.

We're not there yet and hopefully never will, but given that Janusz "women are inferior to men, here's a 30 page essay why" Korwin-Mikke is now in Sejm...

Edited by FergardStratoavis on Oct 17th 2019 at 1:15:27 PM

Kurwin already said that he'll support Pi S if they'll ban LGBT.

Edited by SecondKaitenhammer on Oct 17th 2019 at 7:16:31 PM

Poland had better brace itself for higher rates of teen pregnancy, and an STI surge. Probably higher levels of sexual abuse as well, but we knew that the government didn't care about that.

The frustrating part about this is, that it will increase the already existing braindrain in poland. Even more academics, left-leaning people, women and LGBT will leave the country, most likely for germany. Which will stress the polish economy even further and increase tension to the EU.

...which probably is a feature, not a bug for Pi S. Kinda have the feeling they are happy to let their country burn to the ground, so long they can rule over the ashes. If all the left-leaning people emigrate, that leaves mostly just the right-wing, the christian fundamentalists and the bigots, who are happy to vote for Pi S even as they are stripped off their last shirt.

Maybe one can tell, I don't have high hopes for Poland currently. I apologize for any doomsaying, but considering the current development...

Poland has survived worse than the PiS. It'll outlast them.

It'll be bloody unpleasant though - no mistake.