General Middle East & North Africa Thread

The people are calling to get rid of Khameini? This really should be good.

In 2009, the general meme in the protests was anti-Ahmadinejad but nobody really wanted the Supreme Leader gone. If Khameini had been willing (or able - I wouldn't want to have to be the Supreme Leader who tried to rein in the Revolutionary Guard, that's the sort of thing that leads to sudden heart attacks) to back the anti-cheating crowd, Iran might be moving towards a sort of "constitutional theocracy" now.

Now, they want the Islamic Republic to go.

Also, someone check me on this: Did Trump actually tweet something intelligent for once?

Stopped clocks and all that. And besides, Trump is probably just pandering to the people who hate Iran, like Mattis.

Death toll is up to 10 now, at least.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42535292

Also featuring Trump and Pence blowing hot air (I hope).

Ya know, why are there protests?

Lowered living standards and corruption. An Iranian friend of mine said it's bringing out the students and secularists as well.

edited 1st Jan '18 12:18:29 PM by TerminusEst

But the sanctions were lifted, weren't they? What's going on, exactly? Low oil prices?

Incompetent government system? I only know some glimpses of the Iranian government but the impression is that it's a spaghetti bowl that give undue weight to religious concerns. I would not be surprised if these Revolutionary Guards and the like are a resources sink.

I studied the structure of the Iranian government, there is a fair bit of redundancies and spaghetti to it, mainly it’s the fact that the revolutionary guard exist as basically an additional arm of the government that don’t do normal stuff, they just exist to safeguard the revolution.

Replace "resources sink" with "graft machine." The IRGC is like the Egyptian army, taking the bite out of every sector of the economy in exchange for preserving their own power over the state. They control much of the construction and telecommunications industries and have interests in the biggest charities in Iran (and yes, a share of the oil).

And yeah, the people know all of this. The problem is that that is going to make it very hard for the protests to actually succeed, because I can't see the Guards hesitating to go all Tiananmen if they think their power is threatened. The deep state doesn't like being voted on.

edited 1st Jan '18 1:42:05 PM by Ramidel

Hard to say if a brutal repression would give them Chinese style results, or cause a larger scale uprising. Granted, we don't know exactly how extensive these protest are right now.

Death toll is now up to 12, and there have been sporadic internet outages reported.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/01/world/iran-protests-deaths-rouhani-intl/index.html

edited 1st Jan '18 1:44:16 PM by Rationalinsanity

What would really ruin the Guard's day (sadly, everyone else in Iran's day too) is if brutal repression managed to piss off the Army and get them to step in against the Guard.

The president hasn’t been taking a heavy hand (he said that people are free to protest, but should be aiming for betterment of the country) so we could see a show down between the RG and the rest of the government.

Thing is the RG are tied directly to the supreme leader, who has a lot of influence in other institutions and can only be checked by the Council of Experts (who the supreme leader has control over in a roundabout way).

I disappear from the internet for a weekend and then this happens....

Gonna make a prediction: This blows over with little change to the leadership, but Iran has to loosen up on women and also reduce their hand in the central middle east.

They might have to do that, but I doubt they will do it. Especially the latter, if the situation between them and Saudi Arabia continues to escalate behind the scenes.

Internally, I also think these protests might deal a bit of a blow to Rouhani's faction.

edited 1st Jan '18 8:33:27 PM by Quag15

Not so much - the RG are actually more of an independent faction. Khameini has very little direct power over them - they can, even at best, just say "Yes, Supreme Leader" and go right on doing what they were doing. The last guy able to get a handle on them was President Rafsanjani.

They might if he tries to stay honest, yes. If things heat up enough that he can throw his cards in with the protestors, and he does so, he might be in a position to either lead the country to revolution or suffer from a strange new disease outbreak.

edited 2nd Jan '18 12:35:55 AM by Ramidel

I would not be surprised if the "loosen hand on the middle east" happens. According to local radio, part of the reason why the protests are happening is because of a perception that Iran is spending too much effort on foreign policy adventures to the expense of the actual homeland.

The protests continue, more deaths reported. All the details I've read so far have come from the government and so have been skewed against the demonstrators. Anyone seen any first hand updates from other groups or independent journalists? Seems sad to me if the Iranian government is able to block all information but what they provide.

I've only got my friend here and his contacts within Iran, but the messaging is sporadic at best.

edited 2nd Jan '18 5:16:37 AM by TerminusEst

For those of you who haven't been keeping tabs on recent Saudi Arabian developments... We now have what amounts to taxation on almost everything. Gasoline prices doubled, electricity fares are much more punishing... it's bad, considering there's practically no improvement in salaries.

Anyone who's interested in the details of the taxes can look it up here (it's in English). I for one would certainly appreciate it if someone could make a comparison between this new system and comparable ones in the Western world.

edited 2nd Jan '18 5:56:03 AM by MarqFJA

Have to admit, it's hard for me to picture a country without VAT. With no rise in salaries though, it does seem bizarrely hamfisted.

The 5% Saudi VAT rate is very generous compared to the UK's 20% VAT rate. I haven't otherwise looked into the details though.

How generous is that when over the last decade, the prices of food(-related) items in the supermarket — and we're talking daily essentials like sugar and baking powder — have practically had around 100% increase with salaries only getting about 10%-15% increase?

edited 2nd Jan '18 7:06:51 AM by MarqFJA

So you've had doubled prices on basic necessities, practically jack shit salary increases, and now you've got a 5% VAT.

...I'm guessing your corporate tax rate hasn't gone up much.

edited 2nd Jan '18 7:11:24 AM by M84

Yeah, the rates don't seem that high out of context, but if wages remain stagnant/they are introduced quickly, that's a nasty shock.

For instance, the VAT analogue here is 15%, once provincial and federal taxes are applied. Granted, some provinces are as low as 5%.

edited 2nd Jan '18 7:29:39 AM by Rationalinsanity

No idea, but even without a corporate tax, they'll still suffer from all the taxes on stuff that they absolutely need. Corps still require gasoline to operate their motor vehicles, after all. And everyone uses electricity.

People here already lament the passing of the days of our previous king, since his reign saw the first tangible improvements in our livelihood in many decades (probably since King Faisal).

edited 2nd Jan '18 7:35:15 AM by MarqFJA