War in Ukraine

There’s a part of me that wants to know, and another part of me that’s dreading the likely incredibly horrific answer, exactly where those kids are being taken.

I can’t imagine the pro-Kremlin nationalists are exactly lining up to willingly adopt those kids.

Edited by Angelspawndragon on Jan 21st 2023 at 2:34:14 AM

I'm just hoping we don't see child soldiers start to show up...

...I also hope I didn't jinx it.

Those kidnapped Ukrainian kids will be most likely raised to love Russia and Putin. As for the worries for child soldiers, they haven’t reached THAT pathetic level yet. But, if they did, Russians would definitely use youths from their Hitlerjugend-like groups they have.

That’s a thing in Russia?

Apparently, yes. Yunarmiya, or All-Russia "Young Army" National Military Patriotic Social Movement Association. Youth organization funded by Russian government. It had been compared to Hitlerjugend in the past.

Interesting article on NATO and Ukraine in the NYT today. The alliance is holding strong, but some divisions are showing. Apparently the British and the Americans disagree on the long term strategy for the war. The Brits see the opportunity for a knock out blow this year, the US not so much. Some money quotes:

"When the new British foreign secretary, James Cleverly, visited Washington this week, he gathered reporters for lunch and made the case that it is possible for Ukraine to score a “victory” in the war this year if the allies move fast to exploit Russia’s weaknesses. Officials in Poland, the Baltic States and Finland have largely agreed with the British assessment.

American officials pushed back, saying it is critical to pace the aid, and not flood Ukraine with equipment its troops cannot yet operate. And they argue that in a world of limited resources, it would be wise to keep something in reserve for what the Pentagon believes will likely be a drawn-out conflict, in which Russia will try to wear Ukraine down with relentless barrages and tactics reminiscent of World War I and II..."

"...On Friday, at the conclusion of a meeting in Germany of the dozens of nations supplying the war effort, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, repeated the assessment he has offered since the fall.

“For this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces,” he said. The best that could be hoped for is pressing Russia into a diplomatic negotiation — the way most wars end — though senior American diplomats say they have low expectations that Mr. Putin will enter serious talks."

In addition, the article discusses the impatience most of the allies have with Germany and the Leopard II's:

"American officials were clearly frustrated after their negotiations with the German government this week. Germany had begun by saying that it would send Leopard tanks, and authorize others to, if the United States sent its M-1 Abrams tank as well. The United States declined, saying the tank is such a gas guzzler — it employs a jet engine — and requires such a supply line to keep running that it would not be useful in Ukraine’s environment. (The officials dodged questions about why a tank so difficult to operate on European battlefields is in the American arsenal.)

The British Challengers and German Leopards are more flexible and easier to run. But in public, Mr. Austin and others avoided criticizing Mr. Scholz, who in their view has managed the biggest reversal of German foreign policy — starting with the suspension of two pipelines bringing gas from Russia — quite skillfully."

The article brings up another interesting implication:

"While Germany did not say yes to sending Leopard tanks this week, it didn’t say no, either — at least not yet. But Ukraine has a very narrow window of time in which to launch a potentially decisive spring offensive before the Russians do, and the tanks are a key part of that effort."

That is the first time I've heard anything about pre-empting the Russian spring offensive, but it's apparently common thinking:

"Still, Mr. Austin signaled the calendar is not on Ukraine’s side. “We have a window of opportunity here, between now and the spring,” he said. “That’s not a long time.”

I wonder why they are thinking that?

About your question (assuming that you are asking why time is not on UKR side). I feel they are talking about western support and Russia winning by mobilization of more soldiers. Especially the second.

Edited by Risa123 on Jan 21st 2023 at 3:47:07 PM

The M1 is a pretty good MBT, for the US.

The US actually has the logistical support to operate M1, the Ukraine and most of Europe doesn't.

Leopards can be fueled by the same fuel pumps the T-80s and T-72s do with diesel. The US on the other hand can burn diesel on the M1 but it isn't optional and it requiring a fair amount of fuel is a concern for Ukraine, since they'd need to actually build an entire new logistics support structure for the M1 alone.

And for one, I agree with the US assessment over the war progress.

Russia is mobilizing for the long run and doing attrition warfare.

Despite the massive losses the Russians still pressuring the Ukrainians and I really doubt that a few decisive victories will amount to much besides slowing down the Russians further.

Too right. According to German intelligence, Ukraine is suffering triple-digit casualties per day at Bakhmut. Granted, they are giving as good as they're getting, if not more, but it's still a meatgrinder where one side has at least a whole order of magnitude more potential reserves than the other.

Good tanks could decisively change that.

What Ukrainians could use is long range artillery to keep destroying Russian supply bases and command posts. With no competent commanders and supplies, the even the greatest of armies would devolve into disorganized, starving and demoralized mob.

That's pretty much what they've already been doing, whenever their intel caught wind of Russian officers in a known position.

The problem is that holding the Russians back on the front is using up artillery ammo faster than it can be replaced.

Also that's easier said then done.

Just because the Russians have lost a dangerous number of high-ranking officers does not mean that they're in danger of running out of leadership anytime soon. In-fact it's not impossible that it could act as a twisted form of Darwinism where the survivors are the ones who are toughest and smartest.

It's best not to expect the Russian military to collapse as an organization anytime soon. For all its many obvious flaws it's still very large.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Jan 21st 2023 at 10:51:35 AM

I'm reminded of that time during the American Civil War when Abraham Lincoln was informed that Confederate raiders had captured a bumbling Union brigadier general and the herd of horses he was transporting. Lincoln seemed more distraught about the horses than the general.

"I can make more brigadier generals, but those horses cost the government $100 a head!"

Edited by Parable on Jan 21st 2023 at 11:46:22 AM

Until Grant amd Sherman rose in the ranks, the Union commanders in the Civil War were lamentably bad.

McClellan: I didn't lose! I merely failed to win!

Yeah it's off topic but had to do it.

Edited by terumokou on Jan 21st 2023 at 11:46:22 AM

There's probably a reason why even on This Very Wiki there were only for notable, good Union generals.

I think the Russians have only one good general to their name in this war, and I can't even remember his name. And I might just be conflating a bunch of people together.

Edited by Flameal15k on Jan 21st 2023 at 11:44:51 AM

X5More like the luckiest. But as Napoleon said, it is the best quality for a general.

At this point, I’m starting to feel Putin will simply run his country to the ground and he won’t be able to sustain this war economically. Unless he were to completely ignore paying his soldiers salaries, but that would be a dangerous thing to do.

I admit, I mostly jump to this conclusion when I remember how much it costs to maintain [THAT ONE WMD WE SHOULD NOT NAME] and how Russia is supposedly planning to recruit 500k new recruits.

It's a little hard to see, from our current perspective, how the war will end. Basically, every way the war could end is improbable. Basically the options are:

• Total Russian Victory: well, the war's been going pretty poorly for the most part for them.

• Ukraine Surrenders: No point in them doing so.

• Putin Gives Up: He's too stubborn to do so.

• The War Becomes Literally Impossible: I think Russia's economy collapsing to the point where it's literally impossible for Russia to continue is going to be a while, nor do I see Putin being overthrown as very likely.

Personally, my money is on that third option, Putin Gives Up. He's incredibly stubborn, but it's not impossible that even he has limits. Likely, I'd imagine it'd be due to internal pressure. Basically, once the war starts to more seriously affect his country's stability, his own guys will basically demand he stops.

They have to try one last massive offensive, it has to fail, and then they can be forced to the negotiating table in something resembling good faith.

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley says Russia has taken "significantly well over 100,000" casualties in the war.

That's the combined number of killed, wounded, captured, or otherwise missing from the Russian military, Wagner, and other affiliated combatants.

I've seen some other sources say that the number is actually close to 188,000 casualties. That was from more tabloid types though, so take that for what it's worth.

For reference, 180,000 is about what the Russians began the invasion with. It was then bolstered by around 250,000 conscripts later in the year.

One of the more likely (not good) ways for the war to end is for Russia to end up with more or less the territory it currently controls, Ukraine to run out of military capacity to mount counterattacks, and Russia declaring victory with what it’s got.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2023

@Protagonist 506: Alternative solution:

• Putin Dies: Putin dies (either naturally, he's not a young man, or he gets suicided), and his successor blames everything on Putin, tells the ultranationalists to shut the fuck up, and seeks an armistice.