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Saiga (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Getting away with murder
#2126: Jan 28th 2022 at 1:54:18 AM

Yeah, he did want to do that as well

Because that's also an Aus-exclusive thing that has a sound idea that gets taken to screwy levels.

eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2127: Mar 10th 2022 at 8:19:50 PM

Guardian: Zachary Rolfe found not guilty of murder over Kumanjayi Walker fatal shooting.

    Article 
Northern Territory police officer Zachary Rolfe has been found not guilty of murder in relation to the shooting death of Kumanjayi Walker.

Rolfe, 30, was also cleared of two alternative charges of manslaughter and engaging in a violent act causing death.

The verdict comes after an almost five-week trial in the supreme court, and after the case was delayed multiple times because of legal argument and the pandemic.

Outside court, Rolfe said: “A lot of people are hurting today, Kumanjayi Walker’s family and his community.

“I’m going to leave this space for them.”

Northern Territory police association president Paul McCue said it was a travesty Rolfe was ever charged.

“Today we’ve seen justice prevail.”

The trial heard Rolfe shot Walker, a 19-year-old Warlpiri man, while trying to arrest him in the remote community of Yuendumu, about 300km from Alice Springs, on 9 November 2019.

Walker stabbed Rolfe with scissors prior to the first shot being fired. This shot was not subject to any charges.

But, the court heard, 2.6 seconds after the first shot, Rolfe fired again, and then 0.5 seconds later he fired a third time. These final two shots were fired from close range at a time when Rolfe’s partner, then constable Adam Eberl, was attempting to restrain Walker on a mattress. The prosecution alleged Walker no longer posed a threat to Rolfe or Eberl by that stage.

Rolfe defended the charges on the grounds he feared for the life of Eberl and was acting in good faith and “the reasonable performance of his duties” when he fired the final two shots.

“When Kumanjayi Walker deliberately and … viciously tried to stab both officers with potentially fatal consequences,” Rolfe’s barrister David Edwardson QC told the jury in his closing address.

“The only appropriate response was to draw his firearm and pull the trigger, discharging each bullet into … Walker until the threat was removed.”

Rolfe had given evidence in his own case, telling the court he believed Walker was trying to stab Eberl at the time of the shots, and Edwardson said the prosecution “did not land a glove on him”.

Prosecutor Philip Strickland SC accused Rolfe of lying in the witness stand about crucial parts of his evidence, saying that Walker never put his hand on Rolfe’s gun, nor had Rolfe seen Walker stabbing Eberl.

In his closing address, Strickland said the jury should consider the context to Rolfe confronting Walker in the Yuendumu property known as House 511 where the shooting occurred.

This context, Strickland said, included what he alleged was Rolfe’s “preoccupation” with an incident three days earlier, when Walker threatened two police officers with an axe at a separate Yuendumu property known as House 577, Rolfe’s “keenness” to be deployed to Yuendumu, his “insistence” upon leaving the Yuendumu police station to immediately track down Walker, and the “manner” and “state of readiness” in which he searched House 577 minutes before the shooting.

“All of those matters, we say, are evidence of a particular state of mind,” Strickland said.

“They’re all evidence of a mentality the accused had at that time and that mentality was that if Kumanjayi Walker showed any resistance, if he presented with an edged weapon, he would be prepared to draw his weapon, and if necessary fire it at Kumanjayi Walker.”

Strickland claimed that Rolfe had lied to the court to “justify the unjustifiable”. The defence said that was “absurd”.

The jury retired to consider its verdict on Thursday afternoon.

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#2128: Mar 31st 2022 at 6:05:41 AM

Australian diplomats can't visit Cheng Lei, who's on trial for "providing state secrets" to hostile countries.

eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2129: Apr 9th 2022 at 2:42:38 PM

9News published some graphics comparing some of the recent opinion polls for the federal election. Honestly not sure if I'd feel good about this — there's reason to hope that nine years of Coalition government is enough reason for previously undecided voters to switch up their preferences this year, but I have a lot of misgivings about the fact that Labor has an even narrower lead than in 2019 polls after Albo's budget reply speech.


ABC: Northern Territory Intervention-era alcohol bans are set to expire after 15 years.

    Article 
Long-term alcohol restrictions in dozens of Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory are set to end in July, unless there's a last-minute extension to the laws by the federal government.

The NT Government said the lifting of the laws will mean 32 town camps, 12 remote communities and 215 homelands and outstations across the territory will soon be able to choose whether or not they want to have access to alcohol in their communities moving forward.

The bans came into force during the NT Emergency Response – known as the NT Intervention – in 2007, and have continued under Stronger Futures legislation since 2012.

While the laws will expire in two months' time, the Commonwealth has not publicly ruled out an extension, but did not say whether a decision would be made before the upcoming election.

Federal Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt said there were "multiple perspectives" on the laws "that need to be considered" before they decided whether or not to extend them.

But the NT Government said it was certain the laws would end.

NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner this week dubbed the restrictions as "racist" and said individual communities should be able to have freedom of choice on whether they wanted alcohol banned or not.

"Changes are going to happen, we're prepared for it," Mr Gunner said.

"People will be allowed to drink in certain parts of the Northern Territory where they're currently not allowed to drink … we're not going to be racist, we're going to work through that."

For some individuals and communities the Intervention had hugely detrimental effects.

But for Phillip Goodman, a Maranungu man and leader of 15 Mile camp, also known as Palmerston Indigenous Village, a community on the outskirts of Darwin, he said the bans had brought some respite from the scourge of alcohol-related violence at the time.

"When the Intervention came in, that sort of helped out a lot of Indigenous families [in 15 Mile] struggling with alcohol," said Mr Goodman.

"And that made my work on community pretty much easier. I felt safe.

"And now I feel gutted if this system is no longer going to exist."

Communities can self-impose bans

If the federal laws fold by July as is currently scheduled, the NT Government said communities and town camps under those restrictions would be able to "opt-in" to continue the bans for two more years.

"The two-year period will enable community-led processes to be undertaken to consider alcohol aspirations going forward," an NT government spokesman said.

Mr Goodman said his community would be among those opting to do so.

But the NT Government has also confirmed some remote communities have "expressed a desire for the return of alcohol in a managed way", following the cessation of the laws.

One such community is Barunga, near Katherine, where community members were successful in their bid for a social club liquor license, so people could have a drink closer to home and not be forced to pay exorbitant taxi fees or risk road accidents driving to nearby townships to access alcohol.

The NT Government said any community wanting to open up a licensed venue, like a sports or social club, would still have to go through a full licensing process with the liquor commission.

Consultation should've happened sooner

East Arnhem Regional Council CEO Dale Keehne was in a meeting discussing the end of Stronger Futures with government representatives on Tuesday, and said while he welcomed the consultation, there were still issues surrounding the changes which needed to be addressed.

"I think it would've been great to have had this made clearer, earlier," Mr Keehne said.

While some NT communities fall under the Stronger Futures legislation, others will remain dry under NT laws – and Mr Keehne said there was now talk to see if those bans should also be removed.

"It has opened up this issue about, then, well, do we consult with communities about revisiting the NT laws on this, on alcohol not being sold?" he said.

"Is it going to open a Pandora's Box by just going, 'hey, do you want to get rid of restrictions on alcohol [in those communities too]?' and we're not hearing anyone pushing on that."

A Menzies report released in 2019 showed the NT had the highest rates of alcohol consumption per capita in Australia, with correspondingly high rates of alcohol-fuelled violence and crime.

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2130: Apr 30th 2022 at 6:32:35 AM

Guardian: Labor to help low and middle income earners buy home with shared ownership scheme.

    Article 
Anthony Albanese will provide help for Australians on low and middle incomes to buy houses by giving eligible applicants a commonwealth equity contribution of up to 40% of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30% for an existing home.

The Labor leader will unveil the new $329m housing initiative as the centrepiece of Labor’s official campaign launch in Perth on Sunday. If Albanese wins on 21 May, Labor’s new shared equity housing policy will be implemented in addition to the Morrison government’s First Home Guarantee scheme.

To qualify for help under the shared ownership scheme, eligible homebuyers will have to have saved a deposit of 2% and qualify for a standard home loan with a participating lender to finance the remainder of their purchase.

Australians with a taxable income of up to $90,000 for individuals and up to $120,000 for couples will be eligible to participate in the program which Labor has called Help to Buy.

Successful applicants will need to be Australian citizens and not current home owners. Labor says successful applicants for the scheme will also avoid the need to pay lenders mortgage insurance, which represents a saving of around $30,000.

Home buyers under the scheme will have the option of taking additional equity in the property over the life of the home loan. They will not have to pay rent on the proportion of the house owned by the commonwealth.

The new scheme is modelled on programs that already exist in the UK and in some Australian states, including Western Australia, which has the Keystart scheme.

Over time, the program is expected to deliver income for the commonwealth as the government recovers its equity and its share of the capital gain when the properties are sold.

The new policy comes as the campaign conversation has shifted to the economy, rising cost of living pressures and home mortgage rates.

A surge in inflation over the past 12 months confirmed in the latest official figures from the Australia Bureau of Statistics has led to speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates during the election campaign, creating a political headache for the Morrison government.

In a statement ahead of Sunday’s Labor campaign launch, Albanese said the new home ownership program would address an affordability crisis by cutting the cost of a mortgage by up to $380,000 in some parts of the country.

He said Australia was in the grip of a housing crisis because of surging prices. The Labor leader noted the biggest drop in home ownership as a consequence of a lack of affordability was amongst Australians on low and modest incomes “who have been forced to give up on the great Australian dream”.

Albanese said 40 years ago, almost 60% of Australian on low and modest incomes owned their own home, but because of price trends, the percentage of homeowners in those income brackets had fallen to 28%.

He said after nine years in government, housing affordability had only gotten worse under the Morrison government.

The shadow housing minister, Jason Clare, said Labor was pursuing the policy because it is “harder to buy, harder to rent and there are more homeless Australians than ever before”.

He said the program would help Australians buy a home with a smaller deposit, a smaller mortgage and smaller mortgage repayments. “This will help a lot of Australians buy a home with a smaller mortgage that they can afford to repay, instead of renting for the rest of their lives”.

Labor is launching its campaign in Perth for the first time since 1940 as part of an attempt to pick up three Liberal-held seats in the west – Swan (on a 3.2% margin), Pearce (5.2%) and Hasluck (5.9%). The party will also attempt to sandbag the ultra-marginal seat of Cowan held by Anne Aly.

Sunday’s launch will be Albanese’s most significant campaign event since emerging from home isolation on Friday after a coronavirus infection.

Albanese hopes electoral gains in WA will be the bedrock of Labor’s pathway to victory on 21 May. On the hustings in the west on Saturday, Albanese promised $125m in new funding for 135 locally made electric buses as part of a plan to shore up onshore manufacturing.

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2131: May 2nd 2022 at 11:48:48 PM

Seems like a solid step in the right direction. By my understanding, a big driving component of the current housing problem (would we call it a crisis?) is that most everything gets snapped up by speculators and others who already own at least one house. Meanwhile, the Coalition just insist constantly that this is a 'supply issue' and that the solution is to build more houses... which get snapped up by the aforementioned cashed-up speculators, etc.

This shared equity thing sounds like it'd differ from the 'give grants to first home-buyers' thing, which was a crappy idea because if (to use a thought-bubble figure) every first-home buyer in the market for a house is going to be subsidised, say, $20k towards that end, then the hypothetical maximum bids of every first-home buyer in a particular auction will simply increase by that amount. And that price rise is then liable to become the new normal.

Would anyone with more of a background in these sorts of market matters be able to offer any insight on the benefits and/or downsides of the proposed shared equity... thingummy? I'm kind of curious.

Edited by coruscatingInquisitor on May 3rd 2022 at 4:49:21 AM

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SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#2132: May 3rd 2022 at 12:52:45 AM

In my understanding, housing crises typically happen when the houses built are too expensive and thus become used for speculation rather than living. That in turn happens, commonly, when they have a too high land/habitation ratio. Other things usually contribute but this tends to be a principal driver.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Saiga (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Getting away with murder
#2133: May 3rd 2022 at 2:53:13 AM

The very basic idea is that it's the government will put some money towards the purchase of a new home for those purchasing their own home, in return for owning a portion of the house.

This benefits the buyer because they need less of a deposit AND need to borrow less from the bank to purchase the home. Meanwhile, the governments investment will be gained back when the property is sold (earning a gain on the portion they own), or their ownership is bought out by the buyer (which then gives the buyer full ownership of the house).

It's quite a good scheme, and the fact that it means not needing to get lender's insurance is HUGE. Lender's insurance is a fucking rort - you're paying to insure the bank for their decision to lend money to you, and it's quite expensive. If you have a high enough deposit (or enough collateral) the banks won't charge lender's insurance - but for first home buyers, it's yet another obstacle that can prevent you from being able to afford a home.

I was fortunate enough that my parents could lend me enough that I didn't have to pay for lender's insurance - otherwise I wouldn't have been able to buy my first home, as I only had enough for the deposit necessary to secure the home loan.

coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2134: May 16th 2022 at 3:21:27 AM

[up][awesome] Thanks for the explanation!

Perhaps in counterpoint to this, the Coalition has outlined a plan to allow prospective home buyers to tap into their superannuation. Which is somehow even worse than the whole 'first home-buyers grant' thing, as not only would it not solve the problem by simultaneously raising everyone's bid ceiling, but the mechanism for raising said ceiling would draw from buyers' retirement savings. The lobby group for property investors is gonna love this one, surely...

A number of former Liberal Party PMs (Howard, Turnbull) and Peter Costello have previously rubbished the concept.

My first launched Trope!
coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2135: May 20th 2022 at 11:34:49 PM

A very merry election day to all of our Australian tropers!

On this most sacred of days, Defence Minister Peter Dutton has blown his 'protect the border' trumpet in a very conveniently-timed announcement of a people-smuggling boat, complete with a tweet insinuating that these people-smugglers sailed out because they expect Labor to win. From the same story, Home Affairs Minister Marise Payne has also pre-emptively blamed Labor for this (i.e. something that happened on her watch).

Coalition pulling dirty tricks and smear campaigns right up to the last minute of this blasted thing. Film at eleven...

My first launched Trope!
Saiga (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Getting away with murder
#2136: May 20th 2022 at 11:52:01 PM

The LNP are also sending out texts warning of the incoming boat and telling them that voting LNP is the only way to stop it.

Which should be illegal, frankly.

coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2137: May 21st 2022 at 12:20:45 AM

Jeez, yeah. My dad mentioned getting a text to that effect when I got home in the afternoon after a bit of volunteering — not that it had any effect on him; he's well and truly jack of the Liberals these days.

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eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2138: May 21st 2022 at 5:10:51 AM

"The first vessel was intercepted in Sri Lankan waters by the Sri Lankan Navy … this morning the Australian Border Force has intercepted a further vessel near Christmas Island," Ms Andrews said.

"Those ventures indicate, very clearly, what a risk a Labor government poses to our national security.

...I mean, seems pretty on-brand for them.

On a more chipper note: Labor is maintaining a fairly healthy lead over the Coalition so far, with some juicy seats on their way to flipping (hello, Pearce, Curtin, Chisholm). The AEC also announced that a record 7.35 million early and postal votes had been turned in by the 20th — which is, what, just under half the voting population?

Edited by eagleoftheninth on May 21st 2022 at 5:24:40 AM

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Shaoken Since: Jan, 2001
#2139: May 21st 2022 at 5:20:40 AM

Several outlets are calling an Labor victory. As of right now they've won 72 seats.

coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2140: May 21st 2022 at 5:56:01 AM

It's been really delicious seeing all the partisan pandemic point-scoring levied against Victoria and WA for the criminal crime of Having Labor State Governments backfire against the Coalition here, based on the swings in those states.

Scott Morrison has called Anthony Albanese to concede the election and is giving his concession speech now.

All Hail the Dark Lord Albo

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MachThreeSlug Since: Dec, 2011
#2141: May 21st 2022 at 6:00:06 AM

Remember Australia: A change in Prime Minister means that should change your smoke alarm battery.

SteamKnight Since: Jun, 2018
#2142: May 21st 2022 at 7:13:24 AM

If a bunch of desperate refugees in need of humanitarian help is genuinely a threat to national security to your country, I think your country have a more serious issue than a bunch of refugees are coming.

BTW, what is the condition of those makeshift refugee camps in Nauru and Marus (I hope I remember the name, right) islands? If it’s still active, how come those refugees be a threat to Australia when they will just dump them all to those offshore islands? Such a trashfire.

Edited by SteamKnight on May 21st 2022 at 9:13:59 PM

I'm not as witty as I think I am. It's a scientifically-proven fact.
KnightofLsama Since: Sep, 2010
#2143: May 21st 2022 at 5:47:29 PM

Fun fact, the seat of Ryan is being called for the Greens, becoming the first seat in Queensland ever to send a member of that party to Parliament.

It was also one of the worst hit areas in the recent flooding in QLD. Make of that what you will.

They've also picked up Griffith (but Ryan was declared first so gets the honours) and very likely will pick-up Brisbane but both those seats as Inner-Suburb seats and the Greens are essentially taking the place of the "Teal Independents" that have made so many gains in Inner Sydney and Melbourne but had no presence in Queensland.

Overall it's been remarkable how toxic the Coalition in general and Scott Morrison in particular have been. Seats held by Labor that were being called marginal have returned with big swings towards the incumbent candidate (my electorate of Blair being one) and even seats the Coalition have retained have seen big swings against their incumbents. Scott Morrison's own seat of Cook saw a 6% swing against him on a two-party preferred basis and a nearly 7.5% swing against him on first preferences (with both the Greens and UAP seeing increases of more than 2.5% each).

eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2144: May 21st 2022 at 6:26:32 PM

The rally-round-the-flag effect has definitely been quite decisive in WA. There's been a lot of jokes about State Premier Mark McGowan (and his Vic counterpart Dan Andrews) being regionally worshipped as a Supreme Leader for strict COVID policies — but the absurd degree of demonisation by the Coalition and News Corp helped harden the existing us-vs-them mentality that many Westralian voters already held.

Not a fan of how the Greens act a lot of the time, but I suppose that Labor could use a little nudging away from the coal industry — though preferably in a way that's not tone-deaf towards blue-collar miners. Albo's platform, to his credit, puts renewables and carbon emission control front and centre, which tracks with the large percentage of voters who called climate change a priority issue.


And now, for some slapstick crossbench shenanigans:

SBS: One Nation leader Pauline Hanson on course to lose Senate seat as count goes on.

    Article 
Voters have turned their backs on One Nation founder Pauline Hanson, who could lose her Senate spot.

The conservative politician's party is trailing behind the Queensland Greens candidate Penny Allman-Payne for the race to the Senate.

Senator Hanson, who had to spend election day in isolation after testing positive to COVID-19, was well short of a quota on Saturday night as counting continued.

Her party polled 7.8 per cent of the Senate vote, to the Greens' 14 per cent.

The outspoken Queenslander has run an anti-vaccine mandate campaign and refused a coronavirus jab herself.

She was first elected to the Senate for Queensland in 2016.

In the Sunshine State, Nationals senator Matt Canavan was re-elected, as was his Victorian colleague Bridget McKenzie.

High-profile Liberal senator Simon Birmingham was also returned.

On the incoming Labor government's side Penny Wong, soon to be foreign minister, was re-elected for South Australia.

Senator Wong will need to be sworn in next week ahead of the Quad security meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday.

Labor senator Murray Watt was also returned to the chamber, while Queensland senator and former assistant minister for women Amanda Stoker is at risk of losing her position.

Senator Stoker, who was third on the Queensland LNP ticket, sparked controversy after attending an anti-abortion rally in Brisbane during the election campaign.

High-profile candidates Nick Xenophon and Clive Palmer fell well short of a quota in their SA and Queensland races.

Independent candidate and former Wallaby David Pocock is tipped to defeat outgoing minister Zed Seselja on preferences for an ACT Senate seat.


Guardian: Clive Palmer’s massive advertising spend fails to translate into election success for United Australia party.

    Article 
Clive Palmer’s mammoth campaign spend of close to $100m has failed to deliver his party results, with its primary vote failing to reach 5% across the country.

In both regional and metropolitan areas, the United Australia vote increased slightly to about 4.7%, and was strongest in Queensland where it polled close to 6%.

But as expected, the party did do well in outer suburban areas that were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, with it polling about 10% in the seats of Holt, McMahon, Calwell, Bruce, Wright, Forde and Scullin.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party polled higher than the UAP, recording about 6% of primary votes nationally. The party this year stood in almost all lower house seats, boosting the count.

At the 2019 election, when Palmer’s campaign was credited with helping erode Labor’s primary vote with its campaign against Bill Shorten, the party recorded a primary vote of 3.4%.

United Australia leader Craig Kelly, who defected from the Liberal party to sit on the crossbench, managed to secure just 8% of the primary vote, with the south-west Sydney seat of Hughes expected to return to the Liberals.

Palmer has spent tens of millions of dollars in the lead-up to the election, campaigning on the issue of freedom and opposing Covid vaccine mandates and lockdowns.

He has also campaigned strongly against both major parties, urging voters to put the Liberal and Labor party last.

In the final days of the campaign, Palmer accused the major parties of wanting to give up control of Australia’s health department to the “Chinese-controlled WHO”, in double-page newspaper advertisements across the country.

“They will control our lives. Unelected Foreigners controlling Australia? Not on our watch,” Palmer said.

Ahead of the election, Kelly said he was hopeful of picking up seats in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne that had been hit particularly hard by Covid lockdowns.

“Whatever the result is we’ll all be able to hold our heads high because we’ll be on the right side of history,” Kelly told Australian Associated Press.

But while it was able to increase its vote in many of these seats, its vote has failed to influence the outcome.

Labor MP Julian Hill, who holds the seat of Bruce, has described Palmer’s party as a “giant preference scam” to help Scott Morrison remain in power.

The UAP campaign, the most expensive in Australian electoral history, may have contributed to the record vote for minor parties and independents at this election, with Labor’s primary vote at 32% and the Liberal and National coalition with a primary vote at 34%.

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2145: May 21st 2022 at 10:10:03 PM

As a Labor supporter, I honestly don't mind the jumbo-sized, pro-climate crossbench we're looking at now. Incidentally it does look like it'll give Labor options in terms of crossbench co-operation if they don't get an actual majority.

I don't begrudge the Greens winning seats off the Coalition, but I will admit I do have strong misgivings about the prospect of another Labor-Greens coalition, due to the damage Labor has suffered in the past for that kind of direct association. There's a reason why rightward politicians and media love to say "Labor and The Greens" over and over again, namely because it helps them in non-city swing electorates and the like to conceptually marry the former to the latter.

[up]Pfff hahahahahahahaha Pauline Hanson possibly gone from the Senate? Yes please.

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KnightofLsama Since: Sep, 2010
#2146: May 22nd 2022 at 1:23:56 AM

[up] I don't know. They're increased success (especially in this election) means that it's probably time for the Greens to stop being touted as a bogeyman used to frighten rural and regional voters.

Especially since, at least in Queensland, the traditional alliance of mining and agricultural sectors is fracturing. A combination of coal seam gas extraction negatively impacting aquifers and groundwater sources and the increasing effects of climate change has seen environmental outreach and promises to work towards sustainable forms of agriculture woo a lot of famers and agricultural workers towards the left of Labor and the Greens.

Murataku Jer gets all the girls from Straya Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: Who needs love when you have waffles?
Jer gets all the girls
#2147: May 22nd 2022 at 1:49:32 AM

[up][up][up] Pffft. Always fun to see the chip shop lady lose. Also I was so sick of hearing Clive Bloody Palmer talk. When I voted the cake stall was selling Clive Palmer Gobstoppers, among other things.

Everybody's all "Jerry's old and feeble" till they see him run down a skyscraper and hijack a helicopter mid-flight.
coruscatingInquisitor circumlocutory square Since: Feb, 2014
circumlocutory square
#2148: May 22nd 2022 at 7:39:15 AM

[up][up]I'm not confident that they can't be successfully rolled out by Murdoch et al. as a bogeyman anymore, yet. Call me cautious, but they were kinda radioactive in those swing seats last time 'round; I'm not going to start believing just two days after the election that a longstanding tactic used to the detriment of Australia's political left is now void.

In any case, I'm feeling optimistic enough to give Bandt a chance to show he's capable of practical negotiations, despite his long history of bothsiding. (Sorry, it's just hard for me to not bristle when it comes to things like that).

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MrMallard Since: Oct, 2010
#2149: May 22nd 2022 at 3:42:26 PM

I really liked the last Greens leader. He had a speech in Parliament where he said that everyone involved should be ashamed of themselves and that their jobs were to serve the people.

I'm not a fan of Adam Bandt, but if the Greens can help further a green push and inform Labor's climate policy going forward - given that their reaction isn't to go "nope, go all the way or we won't support you" at every possible crossroads - I'm all for it.

That's not to say that they shouldn't have high aspirations for this government and their environmental targets - they should. Rather, I'd prefer to see a government that not only works together on these issues, but is capable of maturity, productive discourse and reasonable compromise after ten years of... not those things.

eagleoftheninth In the name of being honest from the Street without Joy Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
In the name of being honest
#2150: May 22nd 2022 at 5:30:09 PM

So, a few things to note:

  • The incoming Labor government, if it does end up with a majority, is shaping up to be one with the smallest majority in a century or so, depending on how you count the proportions (as the House of Representatives expanded over time).

  • The Coalition also saw a historic bloodbath, with their smallest share of seats in the House of Representatives since the establishment of their present form under Menzies in 1949.

  • The Coalition seats that flipped to the Greens or teal independents were mostly in relatively affluent urban areas like Wentworth and Warringah (2019), which suggests that the climate vote for these members is going to be more stable going forward than, say, the Labor vote in mining electorates.

  • Less than a third of voters put Labor as their first preference, while over 11% put Greens as theirs.

For the moment, the Coalition has shrunk from a bloc with a broad national base to a narrow Queensland/rural faction. But Labor won't have time to rest on their laurels, either: even if they do end up with a narrow majority, it's likely to get eroded away in marginal seats over the next few years, while independents historically stood a pretty decent chance of being re-elected. In many ways, this election is a victory for the popular mandate on climate change — which only makes sense in the aftermath of the Black Summer bushfires and last year's NSW/QLD floods.

The elephant in the room is going to be energy exports. Australians are the second-largest consumers of fossil fuels per capita behind the US, but over two-thirds of the country's carbon footprint comes from exports — with China being the largest consumer, particularly of the coking-grade coal used in steel production. Any serious progress on emission goals will have to involve close cooperation with present trade partners; especially as more of the fossil fuel extraction industry is being run by foreign-owned multinationals like Adani.

(I'm not buying the conspiracy theory being spread in some circles on how the Coalition government had hoped to hurt WA's mineral trade with China as a byproduct of their hawkish foreign policy stance; but I think I can buy the suggestion that it helped alienate their own Mainland Chinese diaspora voters in NSW and Vic.)


Anywho, for those just tuning in from elsewhere: here's an explainer on the "teal independent" phenomenon, aka Liberal politicians (mostly urban women) who defected to run as independent candidates on climate-centric platforms (written by a couple of experts from Monash U's Climateworks Centre).

Edited by eagleoftheninth on May 22nd 2022 at 6:16:24 AM

Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)

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