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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Technically, 28 points is about Alabama's inbuilt pro-Republican tendency - Moore's lead was always around one third of that because of his history and Trump's troubles. The rest of his lead was blown by the child sexual abuse accusations and probably also by Moore's late comments about how antebellum America was better than the present-day one and that all amendments past the 10th should be scrapped, which was interpreted as pro-slavery by many.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Oh, bother.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Silver's analysis was pretty much that.
28 points (lead for generic Republican) - 10 points (due to Trump) - 10 points (due to Moore being Moore) - 10 points (due to surfaced sexual predator allegations) = -2 points. Which seems pretty consistent with Jones winning by about 1.5%.
edited 14th Dec '17 2:23:14 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
The law in the night
I am still amused how the US political spectrum treats the Democrats as a left wing party or equates liberalism and social progress as left wing instead of another axis of the political spectrum.
Inter arma enim silent leges
Impressive how in a few days next year's Congress elections went from "it's good for the GOP, their seats are mostly safe" to "it could be a disaster for the GOP, they could lose some very safe seats".
Oh, bother.
The GOP managing to lose an Alabama Senate seat was a pretty big game-changer.
Overall, America is a fairly conservative country. And our Overton window has been shifting to the right for some time. I blame Reagan for a lot of it.
edited 14th Dec '17 3:24:05 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
I don’t think The US has ever truly had a left or left-wing party and it’s arguable whether we have even had a center-left party.
It arguably goes back to Nixion and his “silent majority” thing.
The House of Representatives was always at risk for Republicans, it was only the Senate that seemed relatively safe, but Now that’s obviously not the case.
edited 14th Dec '17 3:30:54 AM by Mio
The law in the night
Economically the US doens't have a mainstream left wing party, socially it is a divide between liberal and conservative. However the democrats are more center right of the economic policy spectrum and the republicans are the much further in the right with the no government allowed type of economic policy.
Inter arma enim silent leges
The law in the night
Double posting.
Kentucky's Representative Dan Johnson, committed suicide amid sexual assault allegations.
Some while some politicians struggle to put their money where their mouths are, this one just put the gun and pulled the trigger.
Inter arma enim silent leges
Oh, bother.
sgamer82 brought this up a while back (Thread moves fast). Some of us (including me) didn't comment on it because it felt weird commenting on someone's suicide.
edited 14th Dec '17 3:46:34 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
The Mod with the Migraine
That was posted a few pages ago. But also, Dude.
Seems like Roy Moore's issues are more common than we expected, to me.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
If the allegations were true, at least now he won't hurt anyone else.
And that's just about all I have to say about that.
It's been fun.
[French] "Idiot", "liar", "incompetent": Donald Trump as seen by Americans
My translation:
"Idiot", "liar", "incompetent": Donald Trump as seen by Americans.
A poll from the very serious Quinnipiac university confirms the president's unpopularity. The colorful vocabulary used to describe him conveys a mix of worry and disgust.
“What is the first word that comes to you when you think of President Trump”? This open question, pollster from Quinnipiac university (Connecticut) asked it early this month, by phone, to more than 1200 American voters. Published this Wednesday morning, this poll’s results could further fuel the anger of Donald Trump, already irked by the surprise loss of Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s senate election. With 53 answers, “idiot” is indeed the most answered word, followed by “liar” (44 people) and “incompetent” (36). Then come two more flattering terms for the White House’s tenant: “leader” and “strong”, 35 times each.
“Retaliation”
According to Quinnipiac, 30 of the 48 words used by at least five people express a negative sentiment. And quite often, it’s an outright insult: Besides idiot, “asshole”, “moron”, “disgusting”, “crazy”, “buffoon”, “stupid” and “pig” also populate the list. Nothing surprising, knowing the president’s style, according to the poll’s authors: “President Trump is known to use insults and is suffering retaliation for it. “idiot” is just one of the many insults American voters throw at him.” estimates Tim Malloy, assistant director of polls at Quinnipiac. Besides this simple and open question, the university’s poll also broaches more precise questions (security, racism, North Korea, Russian probe). With an unanimous verdict: All opinion signals are in the red for Donald Trump. 62% of polled people estimate he divides the country more than he unites it. 52% feel less safe under his presidency. 61% estimate Donald Trump “believes himself above the law”. Without surprise, his approval rating continues to stagnate, at only 37% of favorable opinion. Only silver lining for the President: He keeps the trust of 85% of Republican sympathizers, a stable number ever since he came to power.
edited 14th Dec '17 4:52:15 AM by Medinoc
"And as long as a sack of shit is not a good thing to be, chivalry will never die."
That 85% support among Republicans isn't as stable as it seems, because fewer people are calling themselves Republicans since last year.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Oh, bother.
I imagine a few either went Independent, went Libertarian, or in very rare cases went Democratic Party.
For the record, the entire list of words used more than five times in the aforementioned study :
- idiot 53
- liar 44
- incompetent 36
- leader 35
- strong 35
- asshole 26
- great 21
- moron 19
- arrogant 18
- disgusting 17
- unqualified 16
- crazy 15
- bold 14
- buffoon 12
- dangerous 12
- ignorant 12
- corrupt 11
- dishonest 11
- honest 11
- racist 11
- businessman 10
- different 10
- stupid 10
- business 9
- change 9
- egotistical 9
- fraud 9
- good 9
- narcissist 9
- president 9
- American 8
- jerk 8
- trying 8
- unstable 8
- awesome 7
- bombastic 7
- disaster 7
- pig 7
- childish 6
- dumb 6
- evil 6
- joke 6
- powerful 6
- courageous 5
- disgrace 5
- fantastic 5
- hard-worker 5
- insane 5
Sample was 1,211 individuals (details here).
edited 14th Dec '17 5:34:47 AM by Julep
Oh, bother.
I'm going to assume swear words weren't counted.
At least, when I think of Trump, a few choice four-letter words immediately pop up in my head.
edited 14th Dec '17 5:40:19 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
Still way too many positives in there.
The law in the night
Don't worry, I'm sure at least half of those positives were sarcasm.
Considering Trump's lack of vocabulary, the nice thing is that it's doubtful his supporters would have other "unique" positive epithets for him.
I lol'd at how low "president" was. It was supposed to be "the first thing that pops in your mind". It should be higher.
Oh, bother.
Even Trump supporters don't think he's presidential.
edited 14th Dec '17 6:16:55 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised
The law in the night
President Trump is a great asshole and an incompetent leader, he is an honest disgrace to the United States. He is doing nothing good for the country by being an arrogant buffoon. He was always a fraud businessman and what he thinks is awesome and bombastic is actually pretty stupid while not knowing the difference between being courageous and bold and being dangerous. His policies are a fantastic joke to America and the world. His actions and party are trying to harm the hard-worker Americans by being very egotistical and undo the change brought by previous governments.
I wonder how many of those positive words were written in something like that.
Because given the contest, even those positive words can be insults.
edited 14th Dec '17 6:20:25 AM by AngelusNox
Inter arma enim silent leges
Oh, bother.
The survey just asked what is the first word that comes to mind when one thinks of Trump.
When I hear that question I immediately think "shit".
Disgusted, but not surprised
I don't know if I would have answered "idiot" or "dangerous".
Nate Silver did a rough analysis of the Alabama election and concluded it wasn't an outlier.
Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier
He tried to dissect how the GOP managed to blow a 28 point lead with Jones winning by 1~2 points (effectively a 30 point swing).
Silver concluded that all three factors would be problems for the GOP in future elections in 2018 to varying degrees. The first is obvious. The second — crazy candidates — will also be an issue thanks to Bannon's efforts. The third will be a problem for the GOP and the Democratic Party, but since the GOP has more swing seats to worry about and more of their Congresspeople are men, odds are they will have to face more of these accusations.
edited 14th Dec '17 2:08:46 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised