Nov 2023 Mod notice:
There may be other, more specific, threads about some aspects of US politics, but this one tends to act as a hub for all sorts of related news and information, so it's usually one of the busiest OTC threads.
If you're new to OTC, it's worth reading the Introduction to On-Topic Conversations
and the On-Topic Conversations debate guidelines before posting here.
Rumor-based, fear-mongering and/or inflammatory statements that damage the quality of the thread will be thumped. Off-topic posts will also be thumped. Repeat offenders may be suspended.
If time spent moderating this thread remains a distraction from moderation of the wiki itself, the thread will need to be locked. We want to avoid that, so please follow the forum rules when posting here.
In line with the general forum rules, 'gravedancing' is prohibited here. If you're celebrating someone's death or hoping that they die, your post will get thumped. This rule applies regardless of what the person you're discussing has said or done.
Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Haven't we talked about trump not accepting the results not mattering since the secret service would just boot him out anyway?
Redmess
This article talks about a different problem though, namely foreign countries legitimizing Trump declaring victory early by congratulating him on his victory.
Optimism is a duty.
Yeah, Trump totally intends to not recognize the validity of the election.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
How would that affect the service getting rid of him?
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
It's a genuine concern for European countries, how the clusterfuck of the US elections is going to affect their foreign relations, especially if a few certain countries make things more clusterfucky, but in essence, this isn't quite about US politics at this point and more European politics.
Redmess
It is, but I thought it might interest you guys to see a foreign perspective on this.
Optimism is a duty.
Jupiterian Local
Redmess
So what would happen if other world leaders start legitimizing a false Trump victory? Would that have political consequences?
Optimism is a duty.
Trump's plan is to hopefully get the courts to award him the election circa Bush/Gore.
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Here's I think the basic possibilities of what would transpire in a scenario where Trump loses by a large enough margin that no recounts are likely to change the result of the election.
1. Trump more or less concedes, but does so in the form of bragging about the record-shattering turnout "he" achieved or otherwise spends his time making excuses for why he lost, but doesn't make an effort to actually overturn the election result.
2. He challenges the election results through legal channels despite the election result being clear. This likely makes it to the Supreme Court, who depending on the exact circumstances will probably either decline the case entirely or rule in a way that might shift some downballot races but stop short of overturning the Presidential election results.note . While the Court does have a conservative majority, not even the people appointed to the court by Trump have exclusively ruled in his favor and enough of the conservative members understand that the Court's reputation matters since it doesn't actually have much ability to enforce it's rulings.
3. Trump blatantly refuses to cede power despite having no legal bases for his actions. This is where things could get really messy really fast. The best case scenario in this situation is the military brass taking him aside and making it very clear that at the stroke of noon on January 20th, they will consider Joe Biden to be the commander in chief, which causes him to back down. The worst case scenario involves different states and different parts of the federal government recognizing Trump or Joe Biden, leading to a goddamn civil war.
Believe it or not, I actually think option 1 is the most likely, with him making at least a serious attempt at 2 being reasonably plausible. 3 is something he might nominally flirt with at a rally, but I don't think he has the guts to actually do it.
Redmess
I think 2 is more likely than 1, he would probably see that as evidence of fraud and an excuse to declare victory regardless. Don't underestimate his ability to reshape the narrative, even in his own head.
3 is likely, and the biggest danger in that scenario is that he would still have roughly two months in power, and with congress and the court on his side, he could turn out to not be such a lame duck after all.
Optimism is a duty.
Trump stated that he may leave the U.S. if he loses to Biden. He’s probably not going to, but it’s a good incentive to vote for Biden.
Why is it that people seem more and more concerned with a Trump-led coup or civil war the less likely it becomes?
They should have sent a poet.
I fully believe Trump will leave the USA if he loses because he's terrified of indictment.
I foresee a beautiful home for him in Trump Tower, Moscow.
As they said in Evita, "Exiles are distinguished, more importantly, they're not dead. I can see us, many miles away, in Paraguay."
Edited by CharlesPhipps on Oct 16th 2020 at 6:25:45 AM
Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
I find the early voting numbers interesting:
- Over 20 million have already voted (15% of total 2016 turnout)
- Registered Democrats are outvoting registered Republicans 2:1
- 82% of early voters cast mail-in ballots (the other 18% did in-person early voting)
- And - here’s the big one, in my opinion - half of those mail-in ballots came from voters aged 65+.
Dems usually do better among the younger crowd (though polls have indicated that may not be the case this year). If they’re winning 2:1 among a group of people that are heavily titled towards the older end of the spectrum, that seems like a very good sign.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-early-voting-numbers-record-1.5766018
Edited by Galadriel on Oct 16th 2020 at 9:48:24 AM
Figure of Hourai
Trump has been massively losing seniors by trying to get them killed, shockingly.
Avatar Source
.
Edited by sgamer82 on Oct 16th 2020 at 6:51:51 AM
Biden had definitely been doing a lot better among the 65+ year crowd then Democratic Candidates have done for the last several election cycles.
The Unknown
Does Trump have to be present at the inauguration? It'd be kinda hard to leave the country if he got arrested immediately after Biden is sworn in.
Edited by Karxrida on Oct 16th 2020 at 6:54:02 AM
If a tree falls in the forest and nobody remembers it, who else will you have ice cream with?
I wouldn't think so, but I'd hope so if only because Biden's inauguration is guaranteed to have a much bigger turnout than Trump constantly denied having.
Asgore Adopts Noelle
x2 Presidents do not need to attend Inaugurations of their successors, although its a better look to do so. John Adams, for instance, left Washington DC in the middle of the night to avoid Thomas Jefferson's Inauguration the next day.
Edited by DingoWalley1 on Oct 16th 2020 at 9:58:19 AM
State of Mind
It's the traditional, stately thing to do, personally hand over power to your successor. So I very strongly doubt Trump will be there to do it.
I don't want him near Biden anyway. Who knows what virus he'll be carrying by January.
"What a century this week has been." - Seung Min Kim
Who knows if he’ll even be alive by January.
Or capable of faking his death in order to be smuggled out of the country?
Europe Preparing for the Worst in Washington: Concern is growing in the European Union that Donald Trump might refuse to recognize the election results if he loses. Preparations are underway for the worst-case scenario.
[]quoteblock]]One could imagine a scenario in which Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rushes to congratulate the "re-elected" U.S. president on election night, followed by Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and maybe even Russian President Vladimir Putin. Soon, though, the first congratulations from Europe might find their way to the White House, from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, or his Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki.
Should a constitutional crisis in fact develop in the United States following the election, there are widespread concerns in Europe that the EU could once again be deeply divided.[[/quoteblock
The upcoming U.S. election is unique because in addition to the two possible outcomes, a third has also crept into the discussion: What happens if Donald Trump simply refuses to leave the White House even if he loses the election? Should that happen, the stability of democracy in the United States would be put to the test. It could even call into question the future of democracy as a form of government.
There are, however, competing interests within the EU. The majority of the bloc's 27 member states is hoping for a victory for Democrat Joe Biden, who they hope will steer the U.S. back to its traditional multilateral approach as a reliable alliance partner. But countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic prefer a Trump victory.
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, deputy head of the German Marshall Fund and leader of the think tank's representation in Berlin, sees three European camps. "That of the French, who want strategic autonomy, that of the Eastern Europeans, who engage in strategic embrace, and that of the Germans, whose commitment to strategic patience sometimes leads to strategic inertia."
France is convinced that, because of structural changes in the world, the relationship between Europe and the U.S. is changing so fundamentally that the election result will not have a decisive influence. Leaders in Poland are hoping for Trump's re-election, but they could also live with Biden, who hasn't been shy about reiterating his critical approach to Russia.
"The approaching U.S. election isn’t as important for any other European government as it is for the German government," says Kleine-Brockhoff. "Germany believes that the world order is at stake in this election."
It is seen as a virtual certainty that the European Parliament would pass a sharply worded resolution should Trump attempt to illegally cling to power. But that's not enough for Martin Schirdewan, floor leader for the Left Party parliamentary group. If the EU wants to be a leading defender of democracy, that ambition has to apply to the U.S. just as it does to places like Belarus, he says.
As such, Schirdewan is calling for the EU to send election observers to the U.S., just as the bloc most recently did for the vote in Nigeria. "The EU must push the U.S. government and also state governments to allow neutral EU election observers," Schirdewan wrote in a letter sent to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament President David Sassoli.
"There are many indications that Trump will try to manipulate the election results or won't recognize a loss," the Left Party politician continues. "If the EU is serious about its appeals for democracy and multilateralism, then the only choice it has is to send election observers." Such a thing, though, would only be possible if they were invited by the U.S., which is extremely unlikely.