British Politics Thread

On a different note, Jeremy Hunt wants Germany to rethink the sales ban to Saudi Arabia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/20/jeremy-hunt-urges-germany-to-rethink-saudi-arms-sales-ban

A lot to unpack there...for one, this is already the second time this week, that Jeremy Hunt makes an a... out of himself on the diplomatic theatre (the other time was when Japan was ready to stop talks with the UK because they felt that him and Fox were too high-handed).

Two, I never wanted Germany to send weapons to Saudi Arabia in the first place and I don't think that it is a good look that they ever did. But it is even a worse look that the UK is now ready to ignore the murder of a journalist and continue an extremely questionable trade.

Three, if I read between the lines, does this mean that the UK is out-right unable to produce specific weapons without the help of Germany?

Swan - In order to invoke Article 50, Parliament had to vote to do it. There was absolutely no chance of blocking that vote, so the Opposition's only way to make any kind of actual impact (because of Parliament's weird system as explained above) was to vote it though as quick as they could so that there would be enough time to pile a ton of amendments on that bill that would give May the ability to invoke article 50 but now hopefully with a ton of caveats - which they succeeded in doing.

In other words, they played Parliamentary tactics make an actual difference rather than taking a principled stand to achieve nothing. And yes, it is a shame that most people don't understand enough about politics to get that. I didn't get the ins and outs until Wyld explained it just now.

I think they've just committed political suicide to be honest.

Edited by GoldenKaos on Feb 20th 2019 at 9:57:54 AM

Probably yes.

For a classic example, look at the development of the SA-80 A2. It's the standard issue assault rifle for the British Army. It was first developed in house by the Royal Small Arms Factory.

It was legendary in how completely unreliable it was. Official reports pegged at least 50 different faults that could occur in normal operational use. Long and short of it Heckler and Koch were contracted to pretty much rebuild the weapon from the ground up, which gave birth to the A2 variant - which is now seen as on a par with comparable front line weapon systems, it's only the bad press from the A1 that killed it's reputation.

So yes, without German knowledge and technical skill, the UK couldn't even supply a standard issue firearm to front line troops.

Really? I was thinking more along the line of "I guess the weapons manufacturing within the EU is already so interconnected that we are all dependent on each other" not "The UK is too incompetent to do it on its own".....

I'm probably being a bit harsh on the Royal Small Arms Factory - a skim read of the Wikipedia article on the SA-80 does suggest that many of the faults actually stem from the fact that the RSAF was being closed down by the Thatcher Government and the SA 80 was going to be their last product, so it was a case of They Simply Didn't Care.

It does however shine a light on the necessary notion of defense industrial strategy. It's the one good argument for Trident replacement - we need to keep building submarines, so that we never lose the skills required to build submarines should the need arise. I'm struggling to think of a British based small arms manufacturer that could have stepped in to rescue the SA-80 -> and H&K were owned by BAE Systems at the time so...

While I agree I don’t think that’s their plan, I think their plan is for labour to loose the next election, Corbyn to be ousted and them to be welcomed back as heroes for seeing what Corbyn was doing to the party. They will then be rewarded with high positions within the party and eventually high positions within the cabinet.

If that's their plan, they're going for the high-risk, high-reward route aren't they? It's more likely that they will just not win any seats as independents, or cause their seats to go to the Tories due to splitting the vote and then get rightly saddled with the blame.

I'd also say it is a fundamental misreading of the situation. Jeremy will never quit / be driven out unless he fails on his own terms. By creating a faction like they have, all it has done is created a scapegoat should Labour fail to win the next election. There already is the belief that Labour would have won the 2017 election had the PLP rallied around Jeremy from the get go as opposed to undermining him at every turn and eventually launching a leadership challenge. The Independent Group is just going to legitimize that belief even further, giving Corbyn a pass should he fail to win the next election.

For them, the outcome will define if they end up as the Rebel on the Throne or the Traitor in the Grave.

Three Tories just joined them, does May even have a majority anymore?

Without the DUP, they have a 1 seat advantage.

I thought they didn't have a seat advantage at all without the DUP?

Without the DUP they don't have a guaranteed working majority. They're still the largest party in Parliament.

Huh, somehow I didn't expect Tories to break away….

Yeah without the DUP they don’t have a real majority, but they have a working majority due to the IRA not taking their seats.

I will admit to being wrong on this, I didn’t see Tory defections coming, it looks like the party of enlightened centerism is going to be a real thing.

Edited by Silasw on Feb 20th 2019 at 11:34:59 AM

It would be funny if the Sinn Féin took their seats now to tip the balance.

Do we expect the Enlightened Centrist Party to get any votes at all from the general public, or will the next general election see them disappear into oblivion?

So apparently the response from the Labour party to these departures has been Stalinist, although the MP who said so hasn't elaborated on how.

Labour wants automatic by-elections whenever an MP leaves the party to become independent, and have said they'll try to do that when they get into power. I wonder if that's what they meant?

I like to think myself as somewhat familiar with Stalin and I don't see how that would be "Stalinist".

Unless they are just going for random attacks with scary words, accuracy be damned.

Yeah I just worked it out, by loosing three seats they’re down to 314, it’s 326 for a full majority, so even with the DUP they don’t have a majority, even once the speaker is factored out (reducing the seat count to 649 and the majority to 325).

Once you factor the speaker out and the Northern Ireland independent in they’ve got a majority of 1, that’s it. If the IRA take their seats a single Tory MP can bring down the government even when it has DUP support.

Now the IRA won’t take their seats, so that means parliament is effectively 642 seats for a majority of 322, which is a two seat majority with the DUP and three seats with the NI independent.

All it will take is two Tory defections (Ken Clarke with a +1) and parliament can revoke article 50 if things go down party lines.

Oh and the independent group is now the 5th largest group in parliament, having overtaken the DUP (and being only one seat behind the Lib Dem’s).

Well, with Soubry they have a pretty popular voice for Remaining.

I am wondering...if they manage to break away enough M Ps from the Tories, would that put pressure an Labour to put their whole voting power behind a second referendum?

(It would also be kind of funny if Sein Fein would take their seats just for this one vote...unlikely, I know, but if this were a movie, this would actually be happening).

If there are the votes, remember three new votes aren’t enough to get a people’s vote though, especially with Labour Brexiters within the party.

Also my numbers were off, there’s currently one seat vacant due to a death (previously labour), one Labour MP having resigned over anti-semitism after loosing a vote of confidence in his constancy after backing the government over Brexit, one labour MP expelled after being found guilty of perverting the course of justice, three Labour M Ps who got suspended pending investigations into sexual harassment and then resigned over anti-semitism, one labour MP suspended while being investigated for sexual harassment and one Lib Dem who quit the party in support of Brexit.

So taking out the vacant seat, the speaker’s seat, the two speakers deputies and the IRA seats parliament is 639 seats, with 320 being a majority of 1, the Tories have 313 seats (factoring out their speakers deputy), so a majority of negative seven.

But the 313 seats get added to them 10 DUP seats, 1 independent in Northern Ireland, 1 former Lib Dem Brexiter and 1 former Labour Brexiter.

So that’s a working Tory majority of six even if Corbyn can get all the other parties plus the four sexual harassers and the perverter of justice to vote with Labour.

Edited by Silasw on Feb 20th 2019 at 12:27:10 PM

Mapping out the new group's policy platform seems to be going well.

Why, what does the Twitter link I can't go to tell you?