The Arab Spring

No you can't. If communication fails at any single link in the chain (whether "professional" soldier or militiaman or all the way at the leadership) the communication has become worthless. You don't get credit if you successfully passed on accurate information to somebody else but that somebody else for one reason or another fails to get that accurate information the rest of the way.

Let's take a modern warfare example using real armies. In the US military there's the chain of command from squad leaders (usually a Sgt. rank or so), platoon leaders (2nd or 1st Lts.), company commanders (usually a Captain), battalion commanders (Major or Lt. Colonel), brigade commanders (usually a full Colonel but Lt. Colonel is possible), division commanders (Colonel in some outfits, usually a Star-rank otherwise) and operational commanders (think Gen. Petreus).

If the squad leader radios information about an enemy tank column to his platoon leader and that platoon leader relays it to his company commander, the chain of command is still happening. Now if the company commander needs operational assets he has no authority to call in or availability, he has to go to his CO the battalion and so on. If the message from the company commander doesn't reach the battalion or higher commander accurately and intact, it matters not that the squad leader relayed it the first time. The chain of command is broken and the information doesn't reach the necessary people to get the assets the company commander needs in this instance.

The TNC is not excused from failing to establish a chain of command and control.

Good point. I think it's fairly obvious that a majority of the chain of command breaks would be happening on part of the largely undisciplined civilian militiamen, however.

edited 10th Apr '11 6:43:04 PM by MarqFJA

If anything I believe the failings are mostly at the bottom. But with the way this thing is there is also likely failings all over the scale. It is quite simply never an easy thing to organize a significant military body. Every step further up you take, your problems of comms and logistics alone pretty much double.

Not having any reliably disciplined main body soldiers is a huge hurdle.

edited 10th Apr '11 9:22:25 PM by TuefelHundenIV

Just relaying reports, as usual:

NATO said they destroyed 14 Gaddafi tanks in & around Misrata alone; rebels confirm it helped them immensely. Gaddafi has lost 40 tanks in the last 24 hours alone.

Al Jazeera's reporter in Ajdabiya observes that Gaddafi forces seem to have retreated all the way to Sirte. Also says Gaddafi's forces on the western gateway were "completely obliterated." (reported about 8 hours ago)

NATO seems to be more aggressive than ever before. No idea what's going on behind the scenes.

Also, head of the TNC will have his first foreign visit (Italy) this week.

How many tanks does he have? Good lord.

Also I can't help but feel a little sorry for some of those tank operators. I imagine at least one is just a soldier who can't leave because he'll be killed, and is forced to drive a tank knowing whats going to happen.

edited 10th Apr '11 10:48:51 PM by Thorn14

Hopefully those people already ran for the hills, or will in the future.

I kinda thought that was the whole point.

^^

2,025 as of 2009. Subtract that 40 from what he's already lost and how much the rebels have, and we'll get some idea of how strong he still is in that regard. Also bearing in mind that over half of that number was in storage and we're assuming he's fully deployed himself...

Before those 40 tanks were destroyed, a coupla days ago, the US estimated that the NATO operation has reduced the total firepower (by which I assume they mean the total amount of military hardware) that Gaddafi had prior to the conflict by over a third. I think this is very significant.

Part of the targets in the bombing campaing were storage installations for military vehicles.

Pity no one can take stock as to what's left. Unfortunately, it also means that once the tanks and other gas-guzzlers are gone, it will be all the more for his technicals.

Toyota War II.

^ I think we're on Toyota Wars 17 by now with all the civil wars and shite in Africa.

Do also note that in the first week of the NATO airstrikes, it was estimated that of the 300+ military aircraft at Gaddafi's disposal, only a measly 20 or so were flight-worthy. Remember, up until the beginning of this civil war, the Libyan arsenal has been composed of '70s-'80s Soviet-made weapons and equipment, and shoddy economic policies precluded regular wide-scale maintenance of said weapons and equipment. Put 2 and 2 together...

Have the Revolutionaries taken more care in maintaining the rust beasts?

Wait, wouldn't that mean NATO's been bombing piles of scrap metal into smaller piles of partially molten scrap metal? Well, since the good guys have even worse stuff, the bombings were still useful, but doesn't it feel kind of wasteful that NATO's been shooting expensive missiles out of expensive planes at piece of junk tanks? The fuel in the missiles probably costs more than their target.

@Best: That "scrap metal" can be made combat-worthy with some much needed maintenance. The problem is about the supplies need to do that, as well as the time - the Libyan Liberation Army (that's their current "official" name) took until last week to make the planes they have in Benghazi flight-worthy.

Even a shitty tank is very effective against unarmed or lightly armed enemies. I'm not saying we shouldn't have bombed these targets, or anything like that.

I think it's a very good thing that Gaddafi hasn't been taking care of his armed forces (except some of the militias) because that makes it easier to kill them. But it also leaves the revolution with equipment that require a lot of effort to make truly combat-worthy and after this conflict, they're useless anyway and have to be replaced from the first five (or so) budgets that the new government makes or Libya will not have a very good army. Though I don't know if they'll need a good army if their neighbours are a democratic Tunisia and a democratic Egypt plus some countries with most of their population across a desert. Then there's Algeria... Here's hoping that it gets a revolution, too.

edited 11th Apr '11 9:27:25 AM by BestOf

They'd have to worry about raids from insurgents and militarized outlaws from some of their neighbours, though; Darfur is still a pretty much anarchic hot spot, for example.

Didn't you realize, the whole purpose of this campaign was to blow up all their current hardware so they have to buy the new stuff from us. Please tell me I don't need to put sarcasm mode on that. Although they probably will buy the new stuff from us.

edited 11th Apr '11 10:29:23 AM by deathjavu

I think I actually suggested that very early on. Like, the day the bombing started.

I'd take a T-34 against some technicals... I'd want a lot more coaxial machinegun ammunition, though.

Actually, I think a wheeled APC would be better suited to kill technicals. Enough armor to stand up against a machinegun, and the speed and maneuverability to run from RPG-toting enemy forces.

Depends on the APC.

Half the BTR variants and the first 2 BMP models are vulnerable to .50 cal ammunition. (Stuff like the BTR-70 and 80 and BMP-2 less so than their predecessors, but it's possible to kill those with a .50 cal machine gun)

Others are almost immune to anything less than 20mm. (M2 Bradley to name one.)

MT: Yes with AP or HEAPI ammo. Or the ever popular SLAP ammo for the .50s. You really want to ruin those vehicles days on foot, generic rocket launchers and Molotov cocktails.

APCs may not hugely be in favour on Gaddafi's side because they have neither a tank's armour nor a technical's anonymity. Rebels may not have any. Or maybe we just don't hear about them because they're not very charismatic beasties.

If Gaddafi's forces start confiscating 4WD vehicles from the general public and not just their showrooms, we'll know he's in trouble. I'm wondering why we're not hearing much in the way of acts of sabotage in Gaddafi controlled cities, particularly Tripoli and Zawiyah (assuming there's much left to sabotagein the latter). I guess a lot of this may be due to the risk of Disproportionate Retribution and Revenge by Proxy via collective responsibility though.

Im reading the new york times, and they have an amusing article about how poorly the Qaaddaffi regime fakes news events in Tripoly. They say "The Qaddafi government's most honest trait might be its lsck of pretense to credibility or legitimacy. It lies, but it does not try to be convincing or even consistent." No doubt they will continue to claim victory right up to the moment they pull the Q-man from his bunker.

How true.