The Arab Spring

Oh man, that vid brings back memories. So yeah, Italy's basically decided to give weapons to the rebels. Just as when everyone's been arguing whether the US should arm them or not, Italy makes the announcement. No idea what sort of weapons they'd be, but it's doubtful it'd be A Ks. This is definitely unexpected.

Also, Platts reports that revolutionaries will load the first tanker with crude oil this week. A Liberian-registered tanker is due to arrive in the port of Tobruk today.

edited 4th Apr '11 5:49:11 AM by MayuZane

Gaddafi: Then defeat is a possibility. Very well. We shall face it together, Moussa, with the stoicism of the true warrior. [Moussa Koussa quietly leaves as Gaddafi continues to stare at the screen]

(it's sad that anyone can imagine the G-man saying that...)

Anyway, good on Italy. And ESPECIALLY good on that kid. God has his eye out on that one...

Even with the promise of weapons though, and organization, they still have to push forward. I really wish they'd take Fezzan away from the G-man first. Tripolitania is much easier to handle if there is no desert avenue of exit. Also helps the morale knowing that when you look at a map, you know that most of the country isn't under the guise of the enemy.

Any new defections?

I caught something on the Beeb today (it was GMT- the international show- not the regular news). Gaddafi sent envoys to Malta and Turkey. Rumour has it an offer of stepping down and leaving one of his sons in charge while setting things up for democratic elections. Now sending diplomats out everywhere seems a bit desperate when you add this news in to all the other ones but that offer...seems awful. It's up to the TNC to decide, to weigh up what they are capable of doing, to think about whether their gains will balance against the lives lost in the meantime, whether they can convince the people in the East, whether the offer is good enought but still, my opinion: that sucks and completely misses the heart of what they want.

The TNC has already stated: They are willing for a ceasefire if Gaddafi's troops are ordered to stop attacking cities. Musa Ibrahim, Gaddafi's spokesman, simply laughed at the idea of telling their troops to pull back and stop shelling.

The TNC also refuses to accept any deal that leave Muammar Gaddafi or anyone in his family to retain some sort of power because they believe Gaddafi's regime has lost all credibility. The TNC has rejected the proposal that Gaddafi’s son would assume power. In a press conference last week, the Council had said no member of the Gaddafi family would be accepted in the new government.

Also, there are reports that Gaddafi's troops are destroying two major oilfields in southwest Libya. This cannot possibly be described as anything but senseless and desperate, especially considering the fact that Gaddafi-controlled cities are running low on fuel.

I think even the G-man knows the jig is up. Now he wants to take everyone down with him, hence the oilfield destruction. *shakes head*

Anyone else wondering why the BBC Live feed on libya hasn't updated since friday?

No idea FF Shinra, sometimes BBC shifts its focus and resources elsewhere for more recent news.

Also, just wanted to confirm: Al Jazeera's correspondent Ali Hashem reports that Gaddafi brigades attacked Misla oil field and are now attacking Sireer oil field to the south of Libya.

Scorched Earth is definitely in effect. This is just going to make things harder for Gaddafi's troops: What are they going to do once their vehicles run out of fuel?

EDIT:

Libya State TV: Food shortages across country, government authorises DEATH PENALTY for those found profiteering.

Also, Al Jazeera Arabic reports that the Gaddafi militia near Brega have run out of Grad/Mortar ammo & are being surrounded by rebel forces. Looks like Gaddafi's infinite ammo cheat code stopped working.

Edit again, last bit of news for today:

The head of the RAF has told The Guardian that the air force is planning to continue operations in Libya for at least six months. Also, Britain is considering plans to supply Libyan rebels with non-lethal equipment – Hague mentions communications as an example.

edited 4th Apr '11 8:42:36 AM by MayuZane

So now that we can more or less stop worrying about Quadaffy, we can start worrying about what the Rebels will do once they take control. We should be concerned that no one really knows who these people are.

Diane Rehm was interviewing someone today who claims he has been following Libya for 25 years and he only recognizes four out of the 30 or so members of the Interim National Council. He expressed concern that former members of the Quaddafi regime, as well as the Tripolitania residential population in general, may be at risk once the Eastern-based Rebel forces take over. I have no idea if his concerns are well-founded, but we should at least be asking these questions. What will happen once Tripoli falls?

edited 4th Apr '11 9:22:11 AM by DeMarquis

Will it be a big surprise if the new government displays mercy to Gaddafi's henchmen and inner circle?

• Rebel leader admits al-Qaeda presence (biased article warning)
• Libyan rebel leader spent much of past 20 years in suburban Virginia
• Mustafa Abdel Jalil, President of what I'm calling "East Libya"
• I am seeing video feed suggesting rebel force near Brega is falling back. One commentator descibes the rebel's main force as "the most poorly organized military force I have ever encountered. The Crips and Bloods were better organized."

edited 4th Apr '11 9:42:12 AM by FrodoGoofballCoTV

Hopefully we won't have to comeback and kill them 20 years from now.

I don't know where the rest of you hopefuls are getting your info from, but to me the rebels seem to be on the brink of defeat. They just lost one of the three remaining cities still in their grasp!

WHAT?!

...sorry, misread it. They were driven back near Brega. I thought they'd lost Brega.

—sighs in relief—

Don't scare me like that! I thought you were about to say that they'd lost Misratah!

Considering how Libya's frontline is in a constant state of flux, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the rebels suddenly, inexplicably found themselves in Zawiyah.

It's really hard to get current news about what's going on with the military situation since advances and retreats keep happening for both sides, mostly due to the nature of the terrain as there is no way to advance without risking being out in the open. It's nigh impossible to move troops and vehicles without being spotted at the horizon, except during the night. News you get of any shift may become outdated just 30 minutes later.

Whenever I post news about what's happening on the front, it's mostly confirmation through Libyan and other Arab contacts. It must also be noted that the TNC's forces have forbidden most reporters from going to the frontline out of fear they may do something that would give away their positions, so again, hard to get reliable news.

edited 4th Apr '11 10:32:23 AM by MayuZane

My understanding is that yesterday, the rebels had moved past Brega to secure it, but the University of Brega is still held by loyalists, who are shelling stray rebel units. My guess is it was rebel scouts probing loyalist positions and becoming caught in the crossfire that were routed. The front seems to be stabilizing with rebels controling a semicircle of ~100 km radius from Benghazi, plus north Misrata, and scattered positions southwest of Tripoli.

But yeah, it's very hard to find reliable info on where the lines really are.

The question is whether political issues or logistics in Tripoli will simply become unsustainable and Gadafy would then find himself with a Zero Approval Rating even amung the loyalists before the rebel position becomes militarily unsustainable.

edited 4th Apr '11 10:37:36 AM by FrodoGoofballCoTV

People seem to have forgotten that there are more than two cities in East Libya, even if they're not on the news. So losing Brega and Misrata together wouldn't mean they'd lost a third of their cities. Misrata is the big one out of the ones being fought in, though, so losing completely would be really significant.

Another very important city, one that the rebels again hold firmly, is Ajdabiya. Then there's Benghazi and Tobruk, among others.

All right, one last news burst for now:

Arab media are reporting that NATO have just destroyed a T-92 tank that was shelling civilian homes in Misrata.

Reuters: Kuwait will officially recognize the Transitional National Council within days, the Kuwaiti foreign minister says. They have already recognized it in the 'practical' sense, but not in the 'official' sense.

Al-Manara Media reports that Gaddafi’s security forces are going around Tripoli car show rooms and taking all the four wheel drive cars to be used for military operations. Desperate much?

Al Jazeera Arabic: The oil fields of Msala and Sireer have been attacked and completely destroyed by Gaddafi’s forces today. The oil fields are situated 400km south of Ajdabiya. Meanwhile in Brega, revolutionaries have pushed forward causing Gaddafi’s forces to retreat west beyond the industrial area. There is a possibility that they may have even retreated to Bishr (20km west) or Al Uqaylah (40km west) seeing as their tank shells and rockets are falling further and further west as well.

edited 4th Apr '11 11:00:40 AM by MayuZane

Didn't you guys here? Qaddafi is the new Saddam, albeit with better fashion sense; who else can rock pastel-colored robes?

Heh. Gadaffi is screwed and he knows it. Raiding car dealerships for anything with 4WD? Depserate. Razing oil fields that he hasn't even lost control of yet? Really desperate.

If I can't have you, no one can.

More people have been fired upon in Yemen. It's a pattern now.

If the rebels lose Benghazi, that'll be a critical blow, but I doubt NATO will let that happen.

"Critical blow" is an understatement. That city is the official and de facto base of operations for practically the entire revolutionary movement.

PS: Newcomer here, skipped everything to this page. Anything important regarding this thread that I should be aware of, but missed due to the page skipping?

edited 4th Apr '11 12:19:03 PM by MarqFJA

SOUTH of Ajdabiya? Does that mean they lost that city in the desert hinterland or did they just flank the rebels?

He said "400 km south of Ajdabiya". That's quite deep into Southern Libya; consider that Benghazi and Tripoli are separated by nearly 1000 km, and do the math.

Most if not all of southern Libya has always been in the hands of pro-Gadafi forces. They're just more concerned with keeping the forces there in place to protect the strongholds and military bases there, which is why we never heard a peep of them until NATO started air-bombing the bases there to cut off supply routes, weapons caches, and knock out any air defenses and air force projection capabilities that they potentially have.

edited 4th Apr '11 12:40:44 PM by MarqFJA

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