History WMG / ASongOfIceAndFirePartIII

The brothel that she and her mother lived in fell on hard times, forcing the proprietors to start selling to the most depraved kinds of customers in order to stay afloat. This is why she hates the place so much and why she was so eager to leave her mother, who she had known all her life, to go live with a father she had never met. When she held the spear, it was the first time she had ever felt strong.

She describes not knowing why she and Jaime were treated differently, and her jealousy over Brienne seems to be not just jealousy over Jaime, but envy over Brienne's freedom to fight like a man without owing it to the world around her to be the most beautiful woman in the kingdoms the way Cersei herself is. Also I'm not sure if that line was also in the books, but she does tell Robert that she ought to be the one in armor.

Boys, girls, it doesn't matter as long as he can take advantage of them and get away with it. Canonically, Lysa has banished two serving girls and a page for supposedly telling lies about him.

Boys, girls, it doesn't matter as long as he can take advantage of them and get away with it. Lysa has banished two serving girls and a page for supposedly telling lies about him.

* Finally, she is BeneathSuspicion from both an in- and out-of-universe perspective -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be the leader of the Sons of the Harpy?

[[WMG: On the Fate of the Forgotten]]
If you've read the [[Analysis/ASongOfIceAndFire Analysis page]] for this series, you've seen an essay, composed by [[Tropers/{{slvstrChung}} me]] in semi-coherent manner, concerning the preponderance of {{First Person Peripheral Narrator}}s in this series. They're a way to add ambiguity, but also a way of showing who truly loses the game of thrones: namely, those who are nearest the players. But it also hammers home a third point: some of the most important players ''of'' the game of thrones are also the ones who never receive any credit for it. Arya and Bran have become nobodies (in Arya's case, almost literally) but clearly have big roles to play. Sansa continues to drive events by virtue of being a LivingMacGuffin if nothing else. Cersei, Jaime, Bran, Catelyn and Tyrion started the War of Five Kings collectively, and yet how many of them ''are'' one of those five kings? You don't have to be a big piece on the chessboard to have an impact; we have this direct from Littlefinger, who should know.

And so what, in my mind, is the series about? Two things. One is the titular song of ice and fire: the rise of the Others, and concurrently the rise of a Targaryen ruler who battled them with fire made flesh. But the second? The second is about the family that history forgot: the Starks, who were once a great house but were effectively wiped out in the War of Five Kings and never recovered.

I mean, whatever even ''happened'' to the Starks? They just seemed to disappear overnight. The lord, Eddard, was killed, as was his wife Catelyn and soon Robb. A woman named Sansa made some crucial contributions, but at that point she was married to someone else and a member of their House instead (House Hardyng, from the looks of things, unless Littlefinger can't keep his WifeHusbandry in his pants anymore and takes her for himself). Commoners still tell tales of a figure named Lady Stoneheart, but surely she was fictional, a bogeywoman crafted to scare children: I mean, an ''undead woman''? Yeah right. There was a long-faced, brown-haired assassin involved, and occasionally a tree spoke up, but who knows where they come from. Rickon Stark, the youngest, is the only one in position to have any impact, and R'hllor only knows what he's been up to on an isle of cannibals. (Then again, maybe I'm underestimating Osha's mothering abilities. She does seem to have a solid head on her shoulders.) And one of the great figures of the War of the Others--Jon, the dragon-rider, the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch? Well, he was a bastard, a Snow, and in any case he had very different blood in his veins (like, "R+L=J" different).

LegendFadesToMyth, and the contributions of the northerners were forgotten forever. But fortunately we have the wise words and scholarship of George R. R. Martin, who unearthed the tale of [[VideoGame/FinalFantasyTactics Ramza Beoulve]]--excuse me, House Stark--to remind us that you don't have to be a king to be a hero, and that sometimes the forgotten are the most important.

(Though you ''do'' gotta have dragons.)

[[WMG: Dickon will die and baby Sam will become the heir to Horn Hill]]
Sometime after Gilly and baby Sam arrive at Horn Hill, somthiong will happen to Dickon, like falling of a horse, killing him. This will force Randyll to legitimize baby Sam thinking him his baseborn grandson. This would be interesting because of the dramatic irony, readers knowing that baby Sam is the son of Craster and Gilly. Also it would wrap up Gilly and baby Sam story, because they would be able to live better there, then wherever Sam is sent as a maester.
** [[spoiler:The baby Gilly took to Oldtown is actually the "Wildling Prince", who Jon substituted with Gilly's son to protect them from Melissandre.]]

[[WMG: There will be a SequelSeries in which Westeros breaks its MedievalStasis and moves through various other historical periods]]
Picture the 19th century Westeros, with the Kingsguard acting as US marshals, with Braavos as a New York stand-in infested with Dothraki crime families, and Targaryen descendants as absurdly wealthy tycoons living on an Andorra-esque Dragonstone (and then pass me my meds).
** Better give George R.R. Martin a big stash of high quality medicine and a personal crew of paramedics, to ensure his survival through the next forty years or so and give him time to write this. Or, better, put him in a [[VideoGame/FalloutNewVegas Mr. House machine]].
** I'd prefer stories about Westeros history. I imagine ASOIAF will end with a feeling of completion.*

[[WMG: Jon will become King...]]
* ...and name his first son Eddard.

[[WMG: GRRM is writing the entire series as a {{Realpolitik}} version of Literature/TheLordOfTheRings]]
Treesicle's [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxG03oBY5zU video]] was the initial inspiration, and [[Fanfic/MassEffectHumanRevolution IgnusDei]] had a brainwave; if Dany is Sauron, she has direct analogues for ''all'' of his forces;
* Orcs = Dothraki\\
Corsairs of Umbar = Iron Islanders\\
Haradrim = Dornishmen\\
Uruk-Hai = The Unsullied\\
The Fell Beasts = The Dragons\\
The Nazgul = Jorah Mormont, Grey Worm, Daario Naharis\\
Saruman = Varys\\
The Mouth of Sauron = The Hand of the Queen AKA Tyrion Lannister\\
The One Ring = The Iron Throne

[[WMG: Character Endings/General Ending theories]]

A few speculations on how the characters end up and how the story ends:

• Daenerys comes to Westeros with Victarion and Tyrion, defeats Stannis and the Lannisters and claims the Iron Throne, Barristan Selmy dying in the process. Aegon turns out to be genuine, and he and Daenerys try to rule together but disputes erupt when she refuses to marry him. War between them breaks out which Dany wins, but allows Aegon to live on Dragonstone with his new wife Arianne Martell, even naming their son her heir since she can’t have children.

• Tyrion claims Lordship of Casterly Rock, but the other houses of the Westerlands turn on him. Tyrion wins the resulting battle, but loses his life. He names Bronn as his heir, with the condition that his son Tyrion takes over when he dies.

• Jon Snow survives, and defeats the Others with the help of Daenerys, Bran and Samwell Tarly (who discovered a secret about the Others in a secret library of Oldtown which proves key to their defeat). Jon finds out about his true parentage from Coldhands, who turns out to be Benjen Stark. He refuses to rule with Daenerys as he prefers being Jon Snow, he travels north and becomes the next King-beyond-the-Wall.

• Bran joins the Nights Watch, eventually becoming Lord Commander.

• Stannis will die killing a dragon. Because he’s just awesome like that.

• Arya returns to Westeros with a new face and ends up being the valonqar who kills Cersei, finishing her death list, is captured and killed.

• Tommen and Myrcella die, perhaps when Daenerys takes Kings Landing

• Jaime is arrested, demands trial by combat, but loses. Brienne, heartbroken, devotes her life to finding Arya Stark, and becomes known as the Wandering Knight.

• Melisandre flees east with Shireen when Stannis dies.

• Victarion and Euron turn on each other, with both of them and Theon dying in the process. Asha claims that the Kingsmoot wasn’t valid since Theon wasn’t there, and since no-one else is left with a legitimate claim Asha becomes ruler of the Iron Isles.

• Sansa marries Harold Hardying and takes the North with the knights of the Vale, defeating the Boltons. She refuses the North when she finds out that Rickon is alive, making him Lord of Winterfell and betraying Littlefinger in the process. She returns to the Vale and rules with her new husband.

• Davos returns Rickon to Winterfell, and upon learning that Stannis is dead, decides he has had enough of war, takes his family and settles down in Winterfell under Rickon’s protection.

• Walder Frey dies of old age. Catelyn, furious that she has been denied her revenge, goes on an even bloodier killing spree across Westeros before being stopped by Jaime, Stannis or Jon Snow


The series ends with a Distant Finale. The king of Westeros (Aegon’s grandson) receives three letters. The first informs him that the conflicts in the Iron Isles after Asha Greyjoy’s death have escalated to a full blown Civil War between the Greyjoy cousins and House Drumm. The second warns him that Shireen’s descendants are mustering support in the East, aiming to take back the Iron Throne in the Baratheon name. The third is from the North, and simply says ‘Winter is Coming’.

* An alternate version:
** Daenerys finally arrives in Westeros using the Iron Fleet. Euron was secretly following Victarion the whole time, and when Victarion's hownblower blows the horn, a battle between the brothers ensues. Victarion uses the dragons to burn Euron's ships, but is himself mortally wounded. Euron escapes. Dany arrives with a subjugated khalasar and restores order to Slavers' Bay, capturing the horn; it turns out that she can blow it without harm, because she's a descendant of Valyrian dragonlords. She uses the horn to restore control over Viserion and Rhaegal and prepares to leave for Westeros.
** Aegon is a fake, but everyone, including himself, believes him to be the real thing. He does not manage to take over the Red Keep, (Cersei is there), but sets up shop on the outskirts of the city and issues orders from there. When Dany arrives, he tries to blow the horn, which kills him.
** Tyrion arrives to Westeros with Dany. He manages to bond with Rhaegal (without use of horn, he finds a way to bribe the dragon, a la Nettle) and uses him to take control of Casterly Rock.
** Jon survives the "For the Watch" attack (with Melisandre's help, but no over-the-top undeadification, more like healing), but, since he was legally dead for a time (the brothers pronounced the eulogy over him), he's no longer a brother of the Night's Watch. He turns to the south with the Wildling army and arrives in the nick of time to save the scattered remnants of Stannis' army and take Winterfell. Soon, Howland Reed appears and tells Jon about R+L. Robb's Will is also revealed, Jon becomes King in the North. Davos brings Rickon to Winterfell, Rickon becomes Jon's heir.
** While Jon is gone south, the Others break through the Wall and collapse it. What's left of the Night's Watch goes to Winterfell and tells Jon. They start to evacuate the North.
** In the Vale of Arryn, Sansa manages to somehow thwart the schemes of Littlefinger and force him to run like hell. The Lords Declarant take control, Sansa tells them who she is. Once the Lords Declarant learn about the new King in the North, they decide to ally themselves with Jon and help clear up the Riverlands and prepare them for the refugees from the North.
** Cersei loses control over everything except the Red Keep once her champion knight is revealed to be a zombie. When fAegon's forces arrive, she threatens to set Aerys's old wildfire caches on fire. She tries to do exactly that after Dany shows up. But Jaime appears and kills her.
** What about Jaime? Brienne has won his life from Lady Stoneheart in a trial by combat. Later he and Brienne learn that Sansa is alive and well in the Vale. After that, Jaime feels free to leave Brienne and return to KL, where the aforementioned showdown is happening.
** Sam invents something really fascinating that works agaist the Others. Maybe even... firearms?
** What happens to Bran and Arya, I cannot predict, because I still don't know what to think about the Children of the Forest and the Faceless Men respectively, and their roles in all this.
** The grand battle against the Others happens somewhere between Moat Cailin and the Trident.
** Jon and Dany become king and queen, but the whole thing became too taxing for them. Jon soon dies for real (his health becomes already poor after his survival in the "For the Watch" attempt, and a job such as ruling a devastated humanitarian catastrophe of a country is not exactly healthy), Dany becomes convinced that she sucks as a ruler, and most of the ruling is done by the Hand, Tyrion.
*** Quite a few problems. How could Tyrion name Bronn his heir? Bronn isn't even a Lannister. And Tyrion Tanner is Bronn's stepson. I doubt they could be named heir.

[[WMG: Shireen will end up as Queen]]
* To provide a link to House Baratheon to the King.

[[WMG: Daenerys will be the one who is sitting on the Iron Throne by the end of the series.]]
* However, she will decide that the Seven Kingdoms are better off as seven separate kingdoms, and break them apart with their own rulers, in a poetic reversal of Aegon the Conqueror arriving in Westeros and uniting them. As such, the rulers will be as follows:
** The North: Likely Rickon, potentially Sansa.
** The Riverlands: Edmure Tully.
** The Vale: Sansa through marriage, if she isn't ruling the North.
** The Stormlands: Shireen, assuming she survives, or a legitimized Edric or Gendry.
** The Westerlands: Myrcella if she survives the prophecy against her, with Tyrion as her Hand, or Tyrion himself if she doesn't.
** The Crownlands: As said above, Daenerys.
** The Reach: Margaery if she survives all of her brothers, Willas if she doesn't.
** Dorne: Arianne.
** Iron Islands: Asha Greyjoy, even if Theon survives - he'd be too broken to rule himself. Plus, he can't extend the line due to missing a few pieces.
** King Beyond the Wall, or some variant thereof: Jon Snow.
*** Better off? It will probably leave Westeros worse off, as there will be a return to the days of constant warfare between the Kingdoms. Also the Seven Kingdoms are mainly used to being united, trying to split them would be disastrous.

[[WMG: Building on the above, Dany will introduce radical government reforms in Westeros]]
She muses for a bit on how Valyria was a Freehold, so she's clearly contemplating more enlightened forms of government. She might bring some much-needed change to Westeros. Perhaps a central army, some kind of parliamentary body, a formal college of arms to reduce fraud (I'm looking at you, Kettleblack), you get the picture.
** Sounds a little too idealistic.
** It's more likely that she will create a centralized, despotic absolute monarchy, with appointed satrap-governors instead of hereditary lords, and a StateSec complete with a second army ready to crush any dissent. This is how I understand her "Break the wheel" line from the series.

[[WMG: The series will end with the Westeros version of the Magna Carta.]]
For all the fantasy tropes GRRM has subverted in this series so far, MedievalStasis has not been one of them. Meanwhile, all the kings fighting over the iron throne when they should have been preparing for a long winter has produced a lot of animosity in the peasants. And even when Dany comes back with her large foreign army and dragons, that animosity will be remembered. Meanwhile, she's the last Targaryen (due to her curse-induced infertility), and her dragons are the last ones (they are all referred to as male, so no new dragon eggs). Plus the War of the Five Kings has wiped out many houses [[spoiler: such as the Baratheons,]], so the power of the Oligarchy may be far weaker than it's been in quite some time. A perfect chance for social progress, like what happened in our world.

[[WMG: Margaery is the younger and more beautiful queen]]
I know prophecies usually don't refer to the person that the characters think it is, but hear me out. The younger and more beautiful queen is supposed to take all that she holds dear. What Cersei holds dear is her children.

We know Olenna killed Joffrey, so Margaery could have been in on the plot to kill him. She helped Olenna ask Sansa for information about Joffrey, which prompted Olenna to kill Joffrey, so she could be involved. Plus, if she knew about the plan she could make sure she doesn't get poisoned by accident.

Tommen is still alive, but in the books he commits suicide because of Margaery's deaths. While we don't know how closely the books will follow the show, something like that happening does seem plausible for the characters involved. That's not exactly Margaery's fault, but is still could be viewed as 'taking Tommen from Cersei', especially to Cersei. And even if Tommen's death has nothing to do with Margaery, Margaery causing Tommen to turn away from Cersei could still count.

We don't know what happens to Myrcella in the books, the show isn't much help since the dorne subplot is so different there. While it's still plausible that someone in Dorne would kill Myrcella to get revenge for Oberyn, it's all possible that her death could have something to do with Margaery, or that Margaery could take her from Cersei in some way.

* If he actually is Aegon, then Elia had to be in on it. She would know the substitute baby isn't hers, and speak up if she didn't know what happened. If she's in on it, she knew it was the only way to save her son [[AdultFear and she didn't have any better options]].

[[WMG: The Faceless Men are born out of a bad case of wyrms]]

Before Aerea Targaryen died, she was begging for death. This was due to her firewyrm infestation. While she was able to endure it longer than an average human, its pretty much guaranteed the average human suffers just as badly, but doesn’t survive as long.

Where do these wyrms originate? The mines of Valyria (allegedly). The ‘first gift’ also happened in the mines. Match these cases up, and you have a firewyrm infested slave, begging for death, and a very pissed off army of proto-assassins.

Then comes the slave rebellion, where enough Valyrian fire mages are killed, sparking The Doom.

This explains the Brovosi overall acceptance of an assassin’s guild operating in the open: the Faceless Men played a key role in the slave liberation and subsequent city’s founding.

Which would also explain why the old coins in House of Black and White are made of iron: they were made from slave chains.

[[WMG: The House of Black and White is a giant blood magic mana power plant]]

Of the known anomalies in the world, the Faceless Men are one of the few organizations that doesn’t seem to be short on magic well before the dragons show up. Since “only life can pay for death,” the assassinations and various offerings of “the gift” fuel this requirement. Since the Faceless Men don’t appear to do any super obvious magic, then this fuels things like their glamour magic, and whatever other subtle purposes they use it for.

[[WMG: The Faceless Man who is also Jaqen H'Gar and the Alchemist is in Westeros to bring about the Second Doom]]
Tying into the above again. Yes, the Maegi's dream suggests that he was hired by Euron, but what if he has ulterior motives? It's implied that [[spoiler: the Faceless Men brought the Doom to Valyria, possibly because so many people had prayed for its destruction. Maybe he thinks Westeros is ready for the "gift"]]. He may be breaking into the Citadel to find something he needs for it.

[[WMG: Jaqen's Target]]
The laws of storytelling's conservation of detail lead me to believe the following: Jaqen H'ghar's target is in Westeros and he hasn't yet completed the assassination. Well, he may have been responsible for [[spoiler:Balon Greyjoy's fall, but the timing seems off and could very well have been a different Faceless Man, hired by Euron.]] Even if so, Jaqen could feasibly have another target keeping him from returning to the House of Black and White. But whom?

Well, first we need to figure out who can afford a Faceless Man. The cost of one is staggering - nobody in King's Landing at least seemed able to purchase such service, not even Littlefinger (who seems to move gold around rather than hoarding it). Tywin might have afforded it, but this does not strike me as his style. Plus, was there any evidence that he had regular contact with Essos? But there is someone with hands in both Westeros and Essos, who also happens to be one of the wealthiest and craftiest characters: Illyrio Mopatis. And assassination definitely seems like his style.

So who would Illyrio want dead? Obviously, Illyrio would need to know or at least know of this individual. This person must be a threat to his plans. It has to be someone who is still alive as of A Dance with Dragons, since Jaqen remains active. But, the target also must have been selected before the end of A Game of Thrones, since Jaqen was in the dungeon by that point.

The sheer amount of deaths already eliminates a huge chunk of potential targets (i.e. it wasn't Robert or Tywin). Stannis would seem like a good candidate, but he wasn't actively doing anything by the time Jaqen was deployed. Let's look at Illyrio's motivation again: he apparently wants to put a Targaryen on the throne. Who would be a liability to this plan? I can only think of three (still living) candidates:

The first two are Varys and Doran Martell, being his co-conspirators. It's possible, I guess, that Illyrio might have found a reason to distrust one - Doran being a bit more likely. Perhaps Illyrio thought he might betray them, manipulating the young Targaryen ruler through marriage? Or by striking a deal with such top-secret information? Again, it's possible, but I'm not totally convinced; Doran and Varys both seem hella committed.

Before I reveal my personal suspicion, let me just come out and say that I support the theory that [[spoiler:Jon is Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark.]] If so, that could present a significant rival to Illyrio's personal pet dragon. In fact, even if that theory is wrong but ''Illyrio himself'' believes it in-universe, it still works! But only two men know the truth: [[spoiler:Eddard Stark and Howland Reed. Ned's dead, baby, and besides, he'd faithfully kept his tongue shut for 15+ years. But Howland Reed? He's a wild card, no telling what he might do with this possible information. Not only that, Crannogmen are specifically notorious to find and defeat. But a Faceless Man, ah, he'll get the job done, you can bet on that.]]

It's also worth noting that Jaqen seems to currently be [[spoiler:in Oldtown, conversing with Sam, who not only knows Jon, but also has met the Reeds.]] That might be a coincidence, but still, Jaqen could very well be trying to gather knowledge on how to assassinate this particular individual. And where better to go for knowledge? Also, if the theory that [[spoiler:Alleras is Sarella is also true, that's another person who would be ''very'' interested in knowing about possible rivals for a Targaryen/Martell alliance...]]

[[WMG:Daenerys will finish her father's work...]]
* Attacking King's Landing ([[spoiler:in GOT Bran has a vision of a dragon flying over King's Landing]]) with dragons she can't control when there is wildfire hidden under the city. How could this turn out? What happened to [[Literature/ArchmaesterGyldaynsHistories Rhaenyra]] may foreshadow Daenerys...

First off: while we know GRRM only told David & Dan five things about how to end ''Series/GameOfThrones'', it is safe to assume that "Dany goes binky-bonkers" is one of them. Second, the book series has an absolute love of FirstPersonPeripheralNarrator -- whenever somebody is in a position of power, they are not a narrator, creating a sense of mystique around them (since we never truly know what they are thinking). Finally, we can assume that ([[EndingAversion unlike in the show]]) Dany will display some SanitySlippage in the sixth and seventh books before JumpingOffTheSlipperySlope. Such a thing would be ''way'' easier to convey through the eyes of other narrators... and, frankly, might prove impossible -- even for a writer of GRRM's caliber -- to convey through her own.

[[WMG: A unified theory behind the magic in the universe, and subsequent radioactive contamination]]

The magic is linked to the materials in the comets that hit the planet. Each impact drives up ambient magic levels. This radiation is beneficial in that it grants magical powers. Its toxic in high levels, requiring the user to either evolve to resist its effects (Valyrian heat resistance) or suffer the consequences: deformities in Asshai and Harrenhal, Greyscale in Valyria, and the Butterfly Disease in Naath.

The return of magic probably has less to do with the birth of Dany’s dragons, and more to do with the comet making it possible again. This would also explain the White Walkers being on the move, as well as Bloodraven and the children chasing down Bran.

We hear about the Bloodstone Emperor in Yi Ti worshipping a black stone which fell from the sky. This probably wasn’t the crimson comet in the story, but *a* comet that fell.

All the magical areas have wierd radiation-esque issues:

Asshai has rampant magic, and rampant deformations. The city is made out of the black stone. Its deemed so toxic, few denizens (if any) dare eat food from the enivronment.

The Northern Wastes have some magic, but not nearly like the other two locations. The Wierwoods are uniquely red in appearance. This isn’t unlike the “Red Forest” near Chernobyl in the real world. This suggests the Weirwood trees are actually a mutated tree species that evolved from centuries of comet impacts, driving up ambient magical radiation.

Valyria had radiation resistant humans. Harrenhall was burned down by dragons, and exhibits similar issues as Asshai: deformations, and magical sightings. People ‘burn to death in the ruins,’ which might not mean ‘conventional burning’ but radiation burning. What if dragon fire is fueled by the black stone, which the dragons metabolized, when nobody knows where they went?

The Valyrian case is interesting because of the rampant incest. If someone was born and raised in Valyria, if they developed the radiation resistance as a survival mechanism, then it would make sense they would have a preference for mates with similar resistances, lest their children be born deformed. In the case where there were plenty of Valyrians available to choose from, incest was probably a rarity. Once they became an ‘endangered species,’ the only potential mates with the resistances were also their blood relations. Their survival instincts might see incest as a lesser risk, to losing their radiation resistance.

So, what happened to the magic?

Well, comets only hit the planet every so often. Heavy metals sink below lighter materials. You also have massive construction projects like Asshai, which has one of the largest concentrations in the world, and reportedly, the most (known) magic as well. Since Asshai is situated in a valley, the massive radiation waves it gives off are contained within the valley walls.

Couple this with the Doom of Valyria, which is likely due to a combination of the proto-faceless men killing off their mages which acted as ‘cooling tower’ personnel to keep their magic reactor from exploding; and the vast concentrations of magic stone ore they were undoubtedly mining (hence the awful conditions). Since the Doom effectively buried the magic reactor, it stopped being a controlled source of magic.

All in all, this brings the ambient magic levels down to where they barely register. In the northern wastes, its unlikely the ore concentrations are even habitable, between the frigid temperatures, the White Walkers, and the radiation. Its possible though, that the unmentioned White Walker capitol IS where the ore is concentrated. They could have mines staffed with wights.

So, anyways... stuff got buried, and magic plummeted. Since White Walkers probably can’t function without magic, they were forced back to where its concetrations are strongest.

Bloodraven probably fared well because he was bolted into the magic trees, force-feeding him magic. This probably makes him strong enough to survive the way he did, but not strong enough to do anything fancy.

The red witches have another approach: they have two sources of magic. The first, and most obvious is the stone in their chokers. The 2nd, particularly where shadow binders are concerned, is force-feeding themselves contaminated food, until they’re practically swimming in the stuff. This is why Melisandre is able to stay warm, because she’s so heavily contaminated, that she’s providing supplemental heat. Since she’s already an adult, she doesn’t need to worry about herself mutating, aside from her abnormally long life.

Then there’s her shadow babies. We know that some contamination causes deformities in wildlife and human new borns. What if the shadow monster she births is actually the extreme of that? Something so contaminated, it becomes more magic than human?

In the real world, its known heavy metals can stay in the human body almost permanently if ingested. If the magic stone behaves like that, then Melisandre could just be on magical life support, where she can’t actually live without having magic to keep her alive. It gets creepier to think that the chokers arent ‘glammours’ but actually devices which prevent and reverse rapid on-set mutations.

Anyways... so magic levels went down. Then the comet hits. Since it impacted on the other side of the planet, nobody saw the explosion, but it kicked up radioactive contaminants, which were carried around the globe via the trade winds. Ambient radiation levels go up, and suddenly you have a White Walker population that can head south, a functional Weirwood network, and Asshai... just keeps being creepy as ever.

Other implications:

Dragons probably metabolize the black stone, both as a food and as energy for their fire. This also helps explain that gross wyrm situation with one of the Targaryans. If her dragon forced her to go to Valyria, it went to munch on a rock, and she wound up tangling with the wyrms in the process. It would make sense they not only feed on the rock concentrations themselves, but also on the trace amounts inside her body.

If the dragons didnt eat the rock, then it would be super difficult to explain why they havent starved to death without single handedly eating half of Dany’s empire. Now for Harrenhal, this suggests the dragons dont just breathe fire, but actually spit some kind of concentrated chemical made from the rocks they ingest. When they blasted Harrenhal, they wound up coating the castle in tons of the stuff, contaminating it for generations.

Then we have Valyrian steel swords which look like real world damascus steel. Damascus steel, much like Japanese steel developed in areas where the available metal was generally poor quality. To overcome this issue, the civilizations developed ‘folding processes’ which attempt to create a uniform material throughout the blade. In damascus steel, this has the noticeable effect of leaving a ‘wavy’ look. Now, if you take iron in the ASOIAF and mix it with dragon-melted black stone or dragon bones, you’ll probably get an effect similar to what’s described in Valyrian steel swords. This also explains why some of the swords give off heat: they’re radioactive. And explains pale sword of Dayne, sword of the morning. This also explains why the swords can kill White Walkers: they’re virtually all magical.

Next, you have the Maester Conspiracy. Maesters didnt get rid of ‘dragons’ or White Walkers, or magicians. They got rid of the stones. They moved it up north, either to put into the wall’s construction, or just to make sure the material is north of the wall.

Now, if you have dragons that depend on that stone to survive, they can’t be chained up. They need to go find the stone to eat it. Otherwise, they starve / wind up stunted, because they simply suffer from malnutrition.

Since the stone was moved away by the maesters, the dragons in captivity, are virtually guaranteed to suffer from not having it. Since nobody knows that dragons actually need the stuff, it kind of backs everyone into a dragonless corner.

Then comes greycale. Why does the Citedal dump Grey Scale sufferers in Valyria, rather than putting them out of their misery? Of course, also, why aren’t they refining the cure?

If we go back to the three magic locations, only one of them isnt actively defended by a political power, and that’s Valyria. The north has the night watch on the wall, and then the white walkers more than likely guarding the actual ore deposits. Asshai must have at least some form of governing body that maintains some semblance of law. Nobody can theoretically make off with the building supports without attracting scary attention.

Valyria doesn’t have any of these. Bring in a small army, with ‘kill anything that moves,’ and they could theoretically get away with some grave robbing, much like Euron claimed to do. Sure, the fire wyrms are creepy, but a lot of their behavior is still animalistic. Grey Scale is a unique challenge because for every soldier touched, they become infected. Any soldier they touch in turn, also get infected. Their clothes and artifacts can also be contaminated. It makes the threat difficult to stay certain about. So, they maesters dump the infected in the area as a means to further discourage and magic ore mining.

Diseases associated with areas having high concentrations of black stone, or potential contamination:

Asshai’s descriptions are anywhere between a dead, sterilized wilderness, to wildly misshapen local creatures. The wildlife prevalent enough around the area to warrant names are unique to that location.

Butterfly disease is closely associated with at least one black stone fort. Its symptoms include insanity / dancing, and what is presumably widespread necrosis of the flesh. The locals appear to be immune to this. Note: these symptoms are similar to radiation sickness, since there can be insanity, the dancing piece could come about when the pain subsides (also known as the ‘walking ghost’ phase). The pain subsiding is the calm before the storm, when the nerves died, due to widespread necrosis. After that phase is the necrosis itself.

In Naath, its notable that the common method for avoiding the disease is not spending too much time on the island. If the disease truly came from the butterflies, then time spent wouldnt be regarded as a ‘standard practice’ for avoiding it. In the real world, this is a common practice for working around radioactive materials. In extreme cases, if an individual spends too much time around it, they can develop symptoms similar to the disease above.

Greyscale is associated with Valyria. Its speculated that Valyrians has some resistance to it. Since it appears to spread outwards from the point of contact with a Stone Man, this would suggest that contact is where the contamination starts. If the cure in the show is cannon to what the books will eventually reveal, then the true way to treat it cutting out the contaminated tissue, followed by an ointment probably designed to prevent infection after the dermal abrasion.

The reason why Grey Scale can behave differently than the Butterfly disease is the form of the contaminant. On Naath, simply leaving the island after a short while is enough. This means the black stone is solid, and not a true contamination risk.

Grey Scale on the other hand originates at or around Valyria, where black stone would have been blasted into dust by the explosions. In that case, the black stone settles on the skin, and provides a constant radiation source that the infected carries with them. The necrosis here starts from the point of contact and spreads outwards. Since its slower, the ‘stony’ texture of the disease is liken to scar tissue. Amputating the ‘infected’ limb isnt reliable because its probably not just that limb that’s contaminated, its just the first location to show clear signs of necrosis.

Its important to note here: Grey Scale also carries with it irrational behavior, much like the dancing in the butterfly disease. It just happens slowly. Its also important to note, at least in the books, Grey Scale is considered ‘painless,’ which would be due to the nerve tissue dying off in the affected area.

Another notable location for Grey Scale is Choyane. This is one of the few urban locations to be razed by dragons, which this post already links to spreading black stone contamination.

Another pattern supporting this theory is that the Black Walls of Volantis, also require long-term residents to be of Valyrian descent. If the walls give off concentrated radiation at the center, then only people with Valyrian resistance to the radiation could survive there without rampant stillborn / malformities. The radiation diseases of the people around the walls are probably written off as a “problem for commoners.”

What does this mean for the fate of the world?

Well, not much, good or bad. The process appears to be gradual enough to prevent any ‘wham’ moments. We’ve already seen the way three races adapt to it:

Those with Valyrian parentage have resistance. The Children of the Forest and White Walkers appear to be symbiotic with it. They might be even dependent on it. Regular humans are either in areas where the radiation isn’t, or go through high-speed natural selection in areas with high concentrations.

Since Asshai behaves like a giant reactor, much like old Valyria, dismantling the city and leaving giant black stone obelisks everywhere isn't necessarily a good idea. The safer thing to do would be to dilute the black stone concentration first, or you’ll wind up with dead zones, possible greyscale outbreaks, and maurading wizards. Even doing that doesn’t necessarily translate to an objectively ‘good’ outcome, because you’ll end up with magic super powered humans, doing what people in ASOIAF are prone to do: rape and pillage.

There are some strategic considerations...

The Citadel’s base is the black rock. Suggesting maesters in on the ground floor, or below could probably make magic work. This would give them an unparalleled capacity for information collection. Whether or not the maesters have a secret sect doing this is unverified. Its also possible they’re so biased against magic, they stopped experimenting, or banned it completely. For instance, with their glass candle test, the entire setup could be designed in such a way where its doomed to fail (ie being too far away from the foundation).

Areas colonized with Valyrian descendants and with black stone structures tend be resistant to recolonization by non-Valyrians. The Valyrians can be conquered, but the occupiers will die of radiation sickness soon after.

Any place that sees really heavy dragon fire tends to become irradiated. This means a Valyrian attack is likely to result in ‘scortched earth,’ where everything mutates or necrotizes. If the Valyrians are conscious of this, it allows them to easily hold territory.

Some, but not all humans benefit from being anywhere near the radiation. This means its really pure luck if you have anything to gain. This kind of puts the Maesters in a “grumpy protector of the normals” role. Which oddly, provides a sort of benevolent rationale to what they do. Everyone can do science, but not everyone can do magic.

That would also make dragons sort of concentrated power batteries and explain why pyromancer spells work better than usual: small air contamination and magic charged air particles getting into the mix.

[[WMG: Dragonstone is a Supervolcano that will erupt plunging Westeros into Nuclear Winter]]

Playing off of the theory that the Doom of Valyria was a massive caldera or supervolcano, Dragonstone could likewise be a a figure that's bound to erupt, causing major weather changes that are in tune with the theme of winter. And with the nuclear winter such an event would cause, it would also give even more power to the Others, which thrive on the cold.

[[WMG: Too many dragon births in too short a time result in a massive volcanic eruption]]
Tying into the above, as well as the "volcano" theory re: Doom of Valyria. Dragon births create a rise in fire-based magic. However, waking or animating too many at once causes a form of super-critical mass, whereby the buildup of fire magic results in... well, volcano day. As a follow up, this acts as a kind of magical "midsummer" that causes a gradual change to an equally long and harsh winter (as volcanic eruptions are known to cause in real life).
* By inference, Melisandre, waking all the statues on Dragonstone would be a very big case of NiceJobBreakingItHero.

[[WMG: Bright Wings, Bright Words]]
The Summer Islanders use parrots as carrier birds, just like the Westerosi use ravens. That's why all messages the Islanders receive are full of happiness and joy.

[[WMG: Valyrian steel is made with dragonbone]]
* In order to make steel, you need to alloy iron and carbon. Now, in conventional steelmaking the carbon is derived from charcoal, but there's another technique. In the old days, people would sometimes use bones, especially the bones of dead relatives, to get the carbon for their steel. Now most of the time, that just makes steel, but if you use the bones of dragons, creatures already imbued with powerful magic, the alloy might well be invested with similar magic.
** Agreed. Furthermore, In the second Tyrion chapter of [=AGoT=] it's stated that dragonbone "is as strong as steel, yet lighter and more flexible, and of course impervious to fire".

[[WMG: Magic in Westeros runs on ClapYourHandsIfYouBelieve.]]
Magic enters the world through Dragons, so without them it can't happen at all. However, human religions determine what shape the magic takes. So, religions with especially adamant followers (the Lord of Light, and the Many-faced God) tend to get magic. The Faith of the Seven, until recently, was run mostly by a CorruptChurch, so miracles don't really happen for them. The Drowned God is similar, because they'd given up many of their traditions like King's Mote, and to an extent, been beaten into subject of the Seven Kingdoms, and the believers in the Old Gods (minus the Wildlings, who still have things like wargs) have likewise let themselves become second-class. Various other magic like wildfire is based on the BELIEF that SufficientlyAdvancedMagic SHOULD work.
* The Maesters try to suppress magic by introducing a logical, scientific worldview. But they are not very successful in this endeavour, because their science is rather pathetic. No [[TabletopGame/MageTheAscension Guns of Mistridge]] = no Technocracy.

[[WMG: Grumpkins and Snarks]]
The book analogue to the Night King is going to be a grumpkin or a snark. Or he's going to be killed by a grumpkin or snark. Either way, there's going to be a payoff involving grumpkins and snarks. Martin wouldn't constantly keep bringing them up, book after book, only for nothing to come of it. [[RedHerring Or]] [[TrollingCreator would]] [[OverlyLongGag he?]]

[[WMG: Mind deterioration and R'hllorist resurrection]]
Until now, we've seen two characters being resurrected through the kiss of life ritual, Beric and Catelyn. The first time we experience a post-resurrection Beric, he has been resurrected six times, yet seems to have retained more of his humanity than Catelyn who has only been resurrected once, but been dead for three days before that. My theory is as follows: If a character dies, the more that character's brain deteriorates, the less human the character will be if resurrected. If a character is instantly resurrected from (for example) a dagger to the heart: Minimal to no damage. If a character is resurrected from having been dead for three days, floating down the river, potentially having whatever animals are in the water pick pieces off the body and specifically the brain, we see a major loss of humanity.

* Two of her family members, a young boy named Grazhar and a young girl named Qezza, are Daenerys' cupbearers/hostages. She had a hand in that happening, knowing it would screw up Daenerys' plans because she could never bring herself to kill children, even to threaten the Sons of the Harpy. And if Daenerys does steel herself to kill them, it will make her look even more like the tyrant many think she is.

* Two of her family members, a young boy named Grazhar and a young girl named Qezza, are Daenerys' cupbearers/hostages. She had a hand in that happening, knowing it would screw up Daenerys' plans because she could never bring herself to kill children, even to threaten the Sons of the Harpy.
* Finally, she's BeneathSuspicion -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be the leader of the Sons of the Harpy?

* She is from the House of Galare, one of the ruling families of Meereen who had their lives upended by Daenerys' conquest. They are a family who has good reason to want Meereen to be restored to its former state. They read the writing on the wall and have pretended to be more accepting of Daenerys' rule (seeing harsh consequences for those who are not), but they are biding their time.

* When she says that Meereen's queen must be "a lady of Old Ghis," she's not talking about Daenerys. Not necessarily herself, either. Perhaps a member of the House of Pahl, described as a house of "bitter old women with a taste for blood."
* While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she is the one who advises Daenerys to marry Hizdahr (who is implied to be a member of the Sons of the Harpy, if not the Harpy himself), and advises Barristan to release him after he's imprisoned.

* Besides that, she's BeneathSuspicion -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be the leader of the Sons of the Harpy?

* Daenerys wants to ban the ''tokar'', but Galazza tells her that she must wear it if she wants to be accepted by the Meereenese, a hint that she wants to preserve old traditions...like Meereen the way it was before the Mother of Dragons came, perhaps?
* While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she is the one who advises Daenerys to marry Hizdahr (who is implied to be a member of the Sons of the Harpy, if not the Harpy himself), advises Barristan to release Hizdahr after he's imprisoned, and also tells him to kill the dragons.

* From a Doylist perspective, it seems too obvious to have Hizdahr be the Harpy after the text heavily implies he is and Barristan suspects him of being so.

* Besides that, she's BeneathSuspicion -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be a member of the Sons of the Harpy?

[[WMG: Galazza Galare is secretly a member of the Sons of the Harpy and plotting against Daenerys]]
* Daenerys wants to ban the ''tokar'', but Galazza tells her that she must wear it if she wants to be accepted by the Meereenese, a hint that she wants to preserve old traditions.
* While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she is the one who advises Daenerys to marry Hizdahr (who is implied to be the Harpy), advises Barristan to release Hizdahr after he's imprisoned, and also tells him to kill the dragons.

While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she is the one who advises Daenerys to marry Hizdahr (who is implied to be the Harpy), advises Barristan to release Hizdahr after he's imprisoned, and also tells him to kill the dragons. She also seems a little too eager to believe that Daenerys is dead for someone who supported her so staunchly. Besides that, she's BeneathSuspicion -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be a member of the Sons of the Harpy?

While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she advises Barristan to release Hizdahr (who is implied to be the Harpy) and kill the dragons. She also seems a little too eager to believe that Daenerys is dead for someone who supported her so staunchly. Besides that, she's BeneathSuspicion -- who would suspect a gentle, kindly priestess to be a member of the Sons of the Harpy?

While she ''seems'' like a helpful ally, she advises Barristan to release Hizdahr (who is implied to be the Harpy), to kill the dragons, and tries to convince him that Daenerys is dead.

* It isn't too far-fetched that Aegon would have made that up just to undermine his hated son Daeron. If so this could do even more to undermine Young Griff's support and legitimacy.

** Cersei loses control over everything except the Red Keep once her champion knight is revealed to be a zombie. When fAegon's forces arrive, she threatens to set Aerys' old wildfire mines on fire. She tries to do exactly that after Dany shows up. But Jaime appears and kills her.

* This could also be a nod to Catelyn and Lysa's ancestry, which traces back maternally to House Whent, who were rulers of Harrenhal at one point. House Whent is also connected to Mad Danelle Lothston, an infamous redhead who practiced blood magic. (Rumours of Sansa's escape from King's Landing suggest that she turned into a wolf with bat wings- and bats are a symbol of both House Lothston and House Whent.)

* This could also be a nod to Catelyn and Lysa's ancestry, which traces back maternally to House Whent, who were rulers of Harrenhal at one point and connected to Mad Danelle Lothston, who was also an infamous redhead who practiced blood magic. Notably, rumours of Sansa's escape suggest that she turned into a wolf with bat wings- and bats are a symbol of both House Lothston and House Whent.

Despite trying to be a FamilyValuesVillain, [[spoiler:his death]] reveals [[{{Hypocrite}} he partook in whores]] [[NotSoDifferent like Tyrion]]. Wouldn't be surprising he has some little Hills out there. Sure, there's Moon Tea, but some of the prostitutes or others trysts may have left before he caught on, which doesn't really matter since they wouldn't have proof he's the father of their children. These bastards would most likely be younger than Tyrion, since [[EvenEvilHasLovedOnes given his affection for Joanna]] I doubt he'd cheat on her.

Thereby subverting their supposed AlwaysChaoticEvil nature, considering that's not George R.R. Martin's style. North of the White Walkers there's a massive volcanic range, both making it way too hot/dangerous for them to live and pumping out obsidian. Every so often volcanic activity like this moves south, which is why the Others are trying to move south; [[NotSoDifferent like the Wildlings, they're running from something that threatens their life]]. Only problem is that humanity is in the way, and they have to make the parts of Westeros they plan to occupy [[HostileTerraforming more hospitable]].

In this respect, [[NotSoDifferent he's far more like Ramsay than he'd want to admit]]. Both are compensating for something that'd be seen as shameful and threaten their lot in life-Roose being his frailty, Ramsay his bastardy and [[ChildByRape how he came to be]]. Ramsay just takes it to [[StupidEvil self-destructive extremes]] because he has far more to cover up and may simply have more in-born psychotic tendencies. By contrast [[WhiteSheep Domeric Bolton]], [[EvenEvilHasLovedOnes despite how much value Roose puts on his life]] he lacks this shared trait and is genuinely confident of himself, and as such is a much better person for it. However it may be the case that he inherited his father's sickness. [[CainAndAbel Ramsay is accused of killing Domeric]], but [[StupidEvil he is terrible at subtlety]] and probably couldn't make it look like an illness. And it's not like it'd do him any good, since Roose accuses him anyway and would've [[OffingTheOffspring killed him right then and there]] [[EvenEvilHasStandards were it not for opposing kinslaying]] (and really, if Tywin is any indication he should've found [[LoopholeAbuse a loophole]] by now). Rather, Domeric genuinely died of a bad belly because he inherited his father's sickliness. Roose, already looking down upon his SerialKiller of a bastard and [[InferioritySuperiorityComplex hating his own illness]], cast the blame onto Ramsay rather than further acknowledge his personal weakness. [[MoralEventHorizon If it wasn't for the Red Wedding]], [[JerkassWoobie it'd almost make him pitiable]].

So what if Bloodraven's a withered almost-corpse talking about how [[TheSacredDarkness darkness will be mother's milk to Bran]] [[DarkIsNotEvil and make him strong]] while feeding him paste with something red in it? This is a series where the white-cloaked flowers of chivalry are largely (of the ones we see) either blindly loyal to unworthy kings or utter assholes (while the one among them infamous for his oathbreaking did so as an act of heroism) while the black-cloaked organisation of outcasts, bastards, and criminals are (largely) steadfast protectors of the realm, and the most powerful servant of a god named the Lord of Light burns people alive to power her spells. [[SomeAnvilsNeedToBeDropped What someone looks like has no bearing on what kind of person they are.]]