I was the one who blocked it off (and I think I should have brought it here first, so I apologize for that). Here are my issues with the counterpoints:
1. Did it make a profit or did it not break even? Those are mutually exclusive things. There's also this idea that a movie, any movie, has to make back 2.5 times its budget to be profitable. I'm skeptical of that, since this 2.5 number is often paired with the claim that theaters take 50% of the gross. In the US at least, that doesn't seem to be the case unless a movie stays in theaters for more than 3 weeks. The number I keep seeing is closer to 20-25% to theaters at first, but it all depends on the contract with the studio; it's definitely not a hard-and-fast rule. I don't know what the actual average percentage theaters made from BvS, but I'd like to see harder numbers before accepting that WB and DC essentially gave away 50% of the gross. Maybe I'm guilty of Reality Is Unrealistic here, but that seems waaaaay too high.
2. WB dialing back its releases could be for a number of reasons. Is there anything to confirm that BvS flopping is the cause?
3. Releasing the R-rated cut could be due to fan demand, which would be the opposite of a problem for WB.
Even if those counterpoints hold true, waiting until it's completely finished its theatrical run seems wise before declaring it a flop or not.
Edited by caivu My stories on AO3.
Sorry it took awhile to reply - had work. Now that I can sit down and do some actual fact finding, this should help us in determining if the film was a bomb or not and answer other questions:
1) The film itself had a budget of $250 million dollars. Marketing was estimated at $165 million, meaning budget + marketing = $415 million dollars it had to recoup. According to Variety magazine, those plus rebates and tax incentives means that Warner Bros. needs to make $800 million just to recoup everything with anything under $1 billion being considered "a disappointment". Article here
. According to Wikipedia and Box Office Mojo, it has a domestic gross of about $298.1 million and an international gross of about $487.7 million for a worldwide grand total of about $785.8 million. Oh, it'll certainly reach the $800 million mark for sure, reaching the big $1 billion so that they can turn to Marvel and go "Ah-ha, we can make it, too!" is just a pipe dream at best.
2) This article, which other sites picked up on, mentions the dialing back.
3) This and other articles mention that the possibility of the R-Rated cut being released would be a desperate attempt to save the film.
Sorry it took awhile to reply - had work. Now that I can sit down and do some actual fact finding, this should help us in determining if the film was a bomb or not and answer other questions:
1) The film itself had a budget of $250 million dollars. Marketing was estimated at $165 million, meaning budget + marketing = $415 million dollars it had to recoup. According to Variety magazine, those plus rebates and tax incentives means that Warner Bros. needs to make $800 million just to recoup everything with anything under $1 billion being considered "a disappointment". Article here. According to Wikipedia and Box Office Mojo, it has a domestic gross of about $298.1 million and an international gross of about $487.7 million for a worldwide grand total of about $785.8 million. Oh, it'll certainly reach the $800 million mark for sure, reaching the big $1 billion so that they can turn to Marvel and go "Ah-ha, we can make it, too!" is just a pipe dream at best.
2) This article, which other sites picked up on, mentions the dialing back.
3) This and other articles mention that the possibility of the R-Rated cut being released would be a desperate attempt to save the film.
My response to all of the above is that none of them fit the trope at hand. If a film made back its money but disappointed overall, then it underperformed. It did not "bomb."
Holy smokes, calling this a Box Office Bomb would be massive shoehorning.
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Whether Bv S actually made a profit for WB is, at best, too close to call even at 850 million because of the differences in the terms of the deals offered in various regions. I've seen some basic breakdowns that show that Bv S was generally more popular in regions that have worse deals for the studio, where it tended to not do well in regions where WB makes more money.
Muddying the issue further is studio expectations were likely to be off the charts for this one - it doesn't just have to make money, it has to have not poisoned the well on. . . well, the entire DCEU. Which means perception is EVERYTHING here.
In this case, we're probably not going to know enough until WB posts actual tax numbers whether Bv S was any kind of failure or not. It probably doesn't merit the term in the strictest sense, but it was almost certainly a disappointment for the studio and may ultimately result in billions (yes, with a 'b') in potential losses and, at the far outside extreme, closure of the studio. Only if the absolute worst comes to pass would I say it qualifies for the trope, though, because expectations may have been set too high (rather than simple numbers.) That's something we won't know for at least three years. So...guess table it for a good, long while?
I'm not sure if this is going to be seen or not, but I'd like to bring up a topic and see what everyone else thinks of it:
It was blocked off due to the fact that the movie is still in theaters and they feel that just because it's bad doesn't make it a bomb. However, I'd like to offer a few counterpoints to this:
- Yes, the film made a profit, however, according to an article by Variety magazine as well as other analysts, there is a consensus that the movie needed to reach somewhere between $800 million and $1 billion just to break even. That is a lofty goal that WB should NOT have went for at all.
- The film is making WB want to dial back on its film releases. For them to do this meant that the film did do bad in a strange sort of way.
- There are now reports that WB is trying to do damage control and may release the R-Rated Director's Cut in theaters. If WB is going that far, then there is obviously a problem here.
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