Tropical cyclones in 2020 (beginning with Damien in Australia)

It's a new year, and with a new year come new tropical cyclones.

The first important storm is Damien, which made landfall at Karratha (in West Australia) a few hours ago. I am not sure how intense it is as many comments don't make it clear whether they are using Australian or Atlantic category scales.

Cyclone's moving down the coast from Pilbara to Gascoyne; flash flood warnings have been issued inland.

Satellite image from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Feb 10th 2020 at 1:44:00 AM

Not a cyclone, but Perth just got lashed by the most severe summer storm in a decade.

Makes us even with the other state capitals, I guess.

CSU Predicts Busier-Than-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2020 as temperatures in the Atlantic are running above normal. Note that a) pre-April forecasts are not very reliable owing to the "spring predictability barrier" of ENSO and b) the "average" of a hurricane season is something very different from the impact on a given region.

As we speak, Tropical Cyclone Harold is running through Vanuatu as a category 4 (Atlantic scale) cyclone. Apparently it's the strongest storm there in recent times.

The northern hemisphere is waking up:

• Typhoon Vongfong is on its way to the Philippines and is expected to move up from Samar through Luzon and eventually south of Taiwan.
• A subtropical storm might form soon northwest of Florida.
• Some climate models expect a cyclone to form soon in the Bay of Bengal and then move northward.

It begins: US NHC to begin issuing advisories for Atlantic TD1 at 5 pm EDT.

Edit:

Edited by tclittle on May 16th 2020 at 4:37:15 AM

Meanwhile, Cyclone Amphan is on the way in the Bay of Bengal. Intensity forecasts are not quite clear but most are trending towards a very intense storm running into Bangladesh or surroundings.

First tropical storm forms in the Atlantic.

Amphan has become the first category 5 cyclone of the year. In theory between eyewall replacement cycles and increasing SE wind shear it should weaken a bit before landfall, but it's not clear whether this will mitigate any impacts.

Juggling cyclones and covid... This season is going to be "interesting times", alright.

Fingers crossed for Amphan scattering itself a fair bit.

That's an understatement, since hurricanes and COVID have roughly opposite mitigations (please stay at home to avoid COVID-19, but evacuate because there's a hurricane coming.)

Edited by thok on May 18th 2020 at 5:39:44 AM

Amphan devastates Kolkata, 22 killed in India and Bangladesh so far.

Looks like we are up to over 80 fatalities over there, particularly in Kolkata where the storm passed over as a Category 2 equivalent.

Unlike the Atlantic it serms like Hawaii should be at lower risk from hurricanes this year.

Finally, that a tropical cyclone that formed together with Amphan in the South Indian Ocean may become a super off season storm for Australia.

Some updates:

• There is apparently no disturbance in the central or western Pacific.
• A tropical wave south of El Salvador is likely to develop, most likely into a tropical storm in the east Pacific or less likely in the Caribbean. It is not clear how long it will take and where it will hit.
• One or perhaps two tropical cyclones could develop in the Arabian Sea in the next few weeks.
• There is a disturbance just E of Florida which is not likely to develop.

Australia is not going to love the next century, from what models I've seen.

The Southern Ocean surface getting warm, frisky and elbowing into any other gyres and streams it can is bad news for everybody in the Southern Hemisphere, but Aus is liable to feel it worse.

New Zealand will, at least, have Taz and Aus between it and the full brunt. :/

Well, it looks like we were wrong - Tropical Storm Bertha has formed from that no-hoper disturbance in the Atlantic a few tens of kilometres off Charleston SC. Another reminder that tropical cyclone intensity forecasts still suck. It won't stick around for long, though - landfall is imminent.

Incidentally, I don't think that ^ is usually considered correct - tropical cyclone activity in Australia has been weak for the past two or so centuries. It's not clear why but scientists think that the end of the Little Ice Age has displaced activity north of the equator. And a similar process will likely occur with man made climate change, although one has to remember that predictions of future tropical cyclone numbers aren't that consistent.

Pardon the doublepost, but something very unusual is expected to happen in Oman: The tropical disturbance Invest 92A is expected to become a tropical cyclone WHILE OVER LAND. It's not an unheard-of thing but if the India Meteorological Department actually gives it a name it'd be the first time a TC was named over land.

Otherwise:

• Another tropical disturbance might develop over the Arabian Sea over the next few days. That one could become an intense - and more orthodox - storm that then goes on to hit India.
• Even farther out, some models predict the development of another storm in the Bay of Bengal.
• In the Atlantic, the disturbance Invest 92L might become a tropical or subtropical system east-southeast of Bermuda, but it has only brief time before waters get too cold and wind shear too strong.
• In the East Pacific, the disturbance Invest 91E could become the first proper storm of the basin over the next few days.
• 91E is part of a larger vortext over Central America (a Central American Gyre or CAG) that could spawn that storm and a few more over the near future - and a lot of rain too.
• The silence over the West Pacific is deafening.

Tropical Storm Amanda formed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala and is hitting the Central America region hard with rains, but the US National Hurricane Center is also expecting it to reform into an Atlantic storm and threaten the Gulf of Mexico coasts by next weekend.

...and it has now dissipated. But the remnant will move into the Bay of Campeche and regenerate. Long range forecasts expect that storm to hit the US at some intensity.

The big unknown of course is whether the new storm will bear the name Amanda or Colin. The nomenclature rules say that "cross over" from Pacific to Atlantic or Atlantic to Pacific storms keep the old name (Amanda in this case) if the circulation survives intact; otherwise they'll be treated as a new system and get a new name (presumably Colin).

Atlantic TD 3 forms out of Amanda's remnants in the Bay of Campeche

TS Christobal forms out of TD 3

Edited by tclittle on Jun 2nd 2020 at 12:04:30 PM

Christobal has stalled bringing flash flooding to SE Mexico and many other Central American Counties already hit hard by Christobal's original form

Christobal has reformed into a Tropical Storm