Pandemics and Epidemiology (COVID-19, monkeypox, etc.)

Meaning that if the goal was to contain the virus, they'd be tied to higher difficulties and if the goal was to spread the virus, they'd probably be tied to easy-mode.

Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Mar 4th 2021 at 2:03:33 PM

Actually, the easier difficulties of the Plague Inc. do have anti-vaxxers and science-deniers.

Quite a clever way to showcase Easy-Mode Mockery.

Also, I was unaware that Japan's number of cases was still very rampant. I only found out when Sakurai mentioned it. Considering how small Japan is, I'm worried about their population's well-being overall.

Scientists released an estimate of the B.1.1.7 strain's transmissibility in England. To sum it up:

Any idea about if it will affect the US the same way?

So basically, all these states and countries that are in the process of re-opening... should be doing the opposite and locking down harder?

Who'd have thought?

Edited by MrHellboy on Mar 4th 2021 at 10:59:05 AM

If other states follow Texas's and Mississipi's lead of revoking mask mandates and pushing for full reopening? I don't have the math, but you betcha.

It does appear like the authors' most likely hypotheses are increased transmissibility and a longer infectious duration. The common sense solution that will easily tackle both is to shut everything down for longer, but we know how well that's been working.

Does the study take vaccines into account? From what I've seen all three vaccines in the U.S. are effective against the B.1.1.7 varient.

Edited by Kaiseror on Mar 4th 2021 at 11:49:36 AM

It seems to consider vaccine rollout as a way to keep hospitalisation and deaths down, with restrictions being another way to keep the numbers down.

You can also just click on the link to find out...

TL;DR yes.

Edited by Synchronicity on Mar 4th 2021 at 11:48:07 AM

But the projection of “more COVID deaths in 2021 than in 2020” was based on a no-vaccination model, which does not reflect events since the study was conducted. About a third of Britain has been vaccinated, probably including almost all the elderly.

The yearly peak was projected as occurring prior to widespread vaccination, and coming about now. If it’s not happening now - and thanks to vaccination and continued public health measures in the UK it isn’t - we shouldn’t expect it to occur later even if measures are relaxed or cancelled, because the bulk of the vulnerable population is now vaccinated.

But it does indicate that it’s unwise for other countries with the variants, that have much lowegr vaccination rates, to be opening up.

Edited by Galadriel on Mar 4th 2021 at 12:55:14 PM

Italy is using its EU powers to block an Astra shipment going to Australia.

Rome said that Australia is not a vulnerable country heavily affected by COVID-19. The EU commission agreed with the assessment.

Edited by Ominae on Mar 4th 2021 at 5:17:17 AM

EDIT: Ignore this

Edited by JamieBGood on Mar 4th 2021 at 1:18:25 PM

Nope, it's because the Italian government is big mad at the suppliers over delivery shortfalls within the EU, and PM Mario Draghi is backing the stance that vaccines made in the EU should stay in the EU until domestic vaccination targets are met.

Apparently, the European Commission announced in January that vaccine manufacturers would be required to seek the permission of their national governments before exporting abroad. The "neediest" countries were supposedly exempted from the export control, but Australia, it seems, doesn't meet that criterion.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Mar 4th 2021 at 5:18:45 AM

Whoops.

Made a boo boo and I realized it now. Sorry for the wrong message.

Can't argue with that logic honestly, you'd want to fix your problems at home and not take away focus on that unless the situation requires it.

Thing is, as of the end of February, Italy had administered just over a fifth of its vaccine stockpile.

That article has a paywall so I have to ask, how much of that accounts for Italy's population? I figure that politically speaking Italy cannot afford to divert part of its vaccine influx unless around half of the country (if not more) has been given their shot.

Edited by raziel365 on Mar 4th 2021 at 8:11:38 AM

It’s not Italy’s vaccine influx, it’s Australia’s (British designed) vaccine doses that were produced in Italy because the EU said that there wouldn’t be vaccine nationalisation.

That’s the big thing, both the UK and US were upfront about the fact that vaccines produced in their countries wouldn’t be allowed to go elsewhere until they’d gotten their own population vaccinated, while the EU said the opposite. The US and UK are also both using their vaccine doses, Italy apparently isn’t.

If Italy isn’t using the vaccines it already has then the extra vaccines that are being taken from Australia may well just sit and rot, meaning that nobody gets them, wasting vaccine doses in the midst of a global pandemic is seriously questionable.

Ok, this puts things into a different perspective. I honestly did not know that the EU made a point of going against vaccine nationalisation and that Italy is not even using their vaccines as far as we know.

Astra already arrived in Manila.

Belmonte did a press conference yesterday and mentioned Sinovac as part of her appeal to get vaccinated ASAP.

Since the companies behind Sinovac and Sinopharm never disclosed official efficacy rates until the other countries did so (eg Brazil, Indonesia), I'd wait until Quezon City gets Astra rolling.

So sorry to her, but I'd rather wait. I've got no problem cooping up in my house as I'm remote working with people from Europe and I never trusted the Chinese vaccine companies to be transparent.

PS - I'd say the same for Sputnik, but only because they published their results in Lancet (?) at the effin last minute.

Speaking of which, the European Medicines Agency is starting its review of the Sputnik V vaccine.

Was the stance against vaccine nationalization arranged by Italy's previous government? Since Conte resigned a couple weeks ago.

I don’t even think it was a national government thing, I think it was an EU thing.

The entire thing would be pretty understandable if Italy was using its vaccine doses as fast as it could get them, but the fact that it’s apparently not throws up a bunch of questions. A lot of the ‘doubts’ EU countries are having over the Astra Zeneca vaccine seem to be grounded more in political anger at the UK then in science.

There is just a level of negligence on the part of the Australian government here. Oxford apparently insisted that anyone who wants to make doses of the Oxford-Astra Zenaca vaccine be able to do so for humanitarian reasons, that’s why India is producing its own brand of it (with some doses getting shipped to the UK and Canada), so the Australian government really should have set up its own production (and I believe partially has).

The Covid situation in Hungary has recently become what can best be described as complete freaking zoo. Two days ago over 70 thousand people with chronic health problems, including my mother, got SMS appointments for vaccination over this weekend, including where to go to receive the shot... except something in the system went wrong and a HUGE number of people got appointments dozens or even hundreds of kilometers away from their place of residence. Like, halfway across the country and such.

Earlier today, the govt's official Covid news site published a declaration that the weekend mass-vaccination is cancelled due to technical problems (that is, the whole database had to be taken offline to verify data), then said declaration was pulled off the site shortly afterwards, then the govt announced that it's cancelled for real.

Meanwhile, 5000 doctors, nurses, etc. quit the field this Monday due to the govt having decided to launch a healthcare reform in the middle of the goddamn pandemic, including compulsory contract amendments with questionable contract terms whose refusal means you're barred from working in national healthcare. And let's not forget that exactly a year and a day into the pandemic, the government STILL DOESN'T HAVE A VACCINATION PLAN. And are currently running a national propaganda campaign into asking the people's opinion about reopening everything, while simultaneously announcing further restrictions due to the recently-started third wave of the pandemic.

They have completely lost control of the situation and running around like headless chickens. Even the opposition is openly going "What the HELL is going on?! What are these people DOING?!"

Edited by amitakartok on Mar 5th 2021 at 5:31:41 PM