Pandemics and Epidemiology (COVID-19, monkeypox, etc.)

Let’s get something straight, if this strain of coronavirus happened to be indeed artificially made and leaked then we won’t know until twenty years onwards or until Xi is dead, no way the CCP will admit to that right now.

For now, let’s focus on the movement of the virus and how to act accordingly.

Alright, I'll stop supporting the notion of biolabs in Wuhan. No, really, I will. Very likely you're right, guys. There's just no proof at all that it originated anywhere else, except the Huanan Seafood Market, and we should focus on news and facts regarding readiness and preparedness, the kind you'd read on USA Today or CNN, not bizarre doomsday conspiracies on Daily Mail and The Washington Times. I said Post earlier, but I meant Times.

And just so we're all clear, I never once supported the "Bill Gates funded WuCoV" theory, or the "patents" theory.

Meanwhile there's now approximately 2,000 global cases confirmed, 56 deaths.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 11:41:29 AM

Here's an opinion article by Pulitzer prize-winning writer Laurie Garrett on CNN. She tells the facts, based on experience with the SARS outbreak back in 2002. But it sounds just a tad pessimistic in places. I expect you guys to be the voice of reason, so please read thoroughly, and tell me how concerned we should be, and whether we should panic or not.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 8:52:05 AM

It almost seems like you’re looking for a reason to freak out.

Almost. But I'm not trying to freak out. I'm just curious, is all. And trust me, I don't want to freak out; I know from personal experience that it does nothing good.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 8:56:26 AM

“Tell me whether we should panic or not” is more doomsaying than curiosity.

Someone mentioned on the previous page that stress is very bad for your immune system. From a preparedness position freaking out is the worst thing you can do, so maybe let’s not.

I admit, my wording is a bit of a mess sometimes, but I really don't want to freak out, nor do I think I'm going to anytime soon, so I agree. Let's not panic.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 9:01:37 AM

One thing I can take comfort is, being an autistic, socially anxious type with no sort of life, I probably don't go out enough or interact with enough people to catch anything. I've caught a couple of stomach viruses and a cold late last year, and that's about it

If you live in an industrialized country and haven’t traveled to China recently your chances of catching this are close to zero whether you go out or stay in.

Well, I may or may not have Asperger's, so I can kinda relate... maybe? I know I got a few fevers throughout my childhood, and the occasional cold these days as a young adult.

But yeah Archon's right, we here in the US have little chance of contracting this virus right now, again proving we have nothing to worry about except minor upper back pains from being hunched over a Chromebook for 40 minutes. I live in a rural area, though, is that okay?

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 9:17:49 AM

And again, if someone like me who lives and works in Taiwan, which gets a lot of travel to and from mainland China especially during the Lunar Holiday season, can avoid panicking...

...then so can we. Thanks a lot. You guys truly are voices of reason. I mean that. But again, does a rural area make a good substitute?

"Don't worry guys, totally not panicking! That said, someone wanna tell me why I shouldn't panic?"

Yeah, no offense, but that's how you're coming across. Saying everyone shouldn't panic while coming within a hair's breath of panicking and bringing up potential reasons why you should is at the very least somewhat hypocritical.

We shouldn't have to say this, but this thread isn't your personal therapist.

Yeah, I would suggest you just avoid Coronavirus-related news for a while.

If you live somewhere with farm animals and you don't freak out over anthrax or the plague, you probably don't need to freak out over this one.

Two new fatalities outside Wuhan: One 88-year-old victim in Shanghai, one unidentified person somewhere in Henan. That makes four along with the earlier deaths in Heilongjiang and Hebei. Not a good development, but it's worth remembering that basically all the fatalities have been middle-aged to elderly, suffering from pre-existing health issues or overwork.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jan 25th 2020 at 7:11:28 AM

kkhohoho, archon: Was just asking, jeez. I've been quite calm about this the whole time... but you're right. Maybe I sound a little hypocritical, maybe I sound a little on edge, and maybe I should just take a break for a while. (I mean, I'll probably lurk around this thread every now and again and not say anything, but hey, at least it's better than what I had been doing here till now.) None taken, btw.

One last thing to say round this thread: Next door there's a dog that sometimes barks a lot, and there's only, like, four houses in the immediate vicinity, and I don't really go outside a whole lot, so I'm definitely good. I've been good. I was good when SARS infected only 27 people out of millions in the country, and I was only 3 years old back then.

But yeah, this is probably the last time I'll post on this thread. And I'm so sorry for editing this so much.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 11:55:51 AM

The biggest danger this virus could pose, depends on the incubation period between getting infected and showing symptoms.

The longer the incubation period = the more carriers to spread the disease incognito before the symptoms kicks in when it's too late to hinder the spread.

So is there any info on how long this disease's incubation-period is?

The median incubation period for coronaviruses is 5 days, no longer than 2 weeks. As of now it appears to be less efficient at transmission than SARS, and more efficient than MERS, both very similar coronaviruses.

A good CNA interview regarding the outbreak and how China's dealing with it:

Angrok: I was right in Hong Kong when SARS was raging, right in the eye of the storm. I was a baby then. I got out completely fine, as did millions of others.

You are in a developed country. You should be fine.

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Jan 25th 2020 at 9:59:10 AM

China virus ability to spread getting stronger

Health officials in Orange County, California have announced the third US patient with coronavirus.

Also from Associated Press: China temporarily bans wildlife trade in wake of outbreak

Just heard from a friend at the NUS. They're evacuating several undergrad dorms there for temporary use as Government Quarantine Facilities; the cluster in question is just down the road from the National University Hospital where they're treating both confirmed and suspected cases. The dorm residents (around half of them international students) are being relocated to a cluster under renovation, which as you can imagine is less than convenient for everyone involved.

There are just four confirmed cases in the city so far, so this is a pretty drastic (and sudden) contingency move. The NUH is quite popular with Chinese nationals seeking treatment abroad, so they might be anticipating a surge - especially knowing that many Chinese tourists here are delaying their flight home.

(Between this and the extreme heat/bushfires back home, looks like it's gonna be a while till my own next trip back)

Update: 42 suspected cases pending test results at the hospital right now. That explains the need for extra quarantine space.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jan 26th 2020 at 8:18:22 AM

@ Terminus Est

The thing that worries me the most now is that it has been confirmed that the virus spreads during the incubation period, that basically means governments would be one step behind the infection while they track the infected.

Edited by raziel365 on Jan 26th 2020 at 8:20:23 AM