War in Ukraine

They only declare wars on abstract concepts like terror. AND THE NIGHT!

IIRC Hitler also accused the US of using Brits as cannon fodder, so take of that what you will.

x4 You know there's a reason the US hasn't stepped in right?

Or why no-one has stepped in?

Edited by kkhohoho on Apr 22nd 2024 at 5:25:10 AM

Russia threatens to nuke somebody every other week; maybe we should just stop taking that at face value at some point.

I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that the real reason why Russia is so aggressive with nuclear threats is to cover up the fact that none of their strategic launch capabilities are actually in operational condition after decades of lack of maintenance due to corruption.

All the better, though. Hope those US supplies arrive soon.

Edited by amitakartok on Apr 22nd 2024 at 7:38:54 PM

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2024

• Russia is attempting an offensive in Adiivka.
• Russia is highlighting its relationship with Azerbaijan.
• Volunteer Sudoplatov initiative is equipping Russian army in Bakhmut direction with cheap FPV drones.
• Russia made gains.

Edited by Risa123 on Apr 22nd 2024 at 8:24:50 PM

I know you're just summarizing it, but maybe "Russia made gains" could be excluded from these summaries since it's as much of a permanent fixture in the ISW reports as the phrase "setting information conditions".

Ok, thanks for feedback.

A few days old, but German and Ukrainian police have found 161 Ukrainian kids kidnapped by Russian inside Germany.

Trying to traffic them abroad? Is Russia really that desperate for cash?

There's an unconfirmed claim on a Ukrainian Telegram channel that former AFU head honcho Zaluzhniy is under house arrest by the SBU for refusing to take an ambassadorial posting to London and pledge in writing that he won't run against Zelensky for the presidential seat.

Non-zero chance that it's a Russian psy-op, though, as he's been targeted with shit like this before.

Edited by amitakartok on Apr 23rd 2024 at 9:07:27 PM

This Zaluzhniy versus Zelensky thing feels like a forced Lincoln versus Mc Clellan.

Why would it matter what Zaluzhniy decides, Ukraine can't hold elections until the war is over.

Then again pushing Zelensky as an evil dictator is a common Russian push, I think MTG tried to force a thing into the bill forcing Ukraine to hold elections only to get her stupid thing thrown out.

https://twitter.com/magictouch190/status/1782415352418165182

Ukraine was able to get Sukhoi Su-25 "Frogfoots" from North Macedonia. They're formerly used by Belarus. They've been upgraded to the Su-25M1K.

https://twitter.com/magictouch190/status/1782435646952321202

A Mi-8MSB-V transport/attack helicopter in the Ukrainian military. It has the Soviet-era exhaust shields/deflectors

"but maybe "Russia made gains" could be excluded from these summaries"

Or you could tell us where the gains were, thus adding a little context.

https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1caotbh/russian_armoured_vehicle_fitted_with_a_cage/

Homemade cage on a Russian MRAP. Could be effective against drones (only).

ISW says Russia is preparing for a wide-area breakthrough at Avdiivka but their chances of success depend on how soon the US aid arrives to the other side of the front line.

Edited by amitakartok on Apr 23rd 2024 at 3:40:53 PM

@Demarq Noted

https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1cb4385/russian_mtlbm_with_new_advanced_cope_cage/

A tracked MT-LBM is seen with a new cage.

BTW everyone, don't forget that there is a link to a map at the top of every page. A glance will show that all the gains Russia has made since the beginning of the war have been rather minor.

The US Senate passed its Ukraine et al aid bill with overwhelming bipartisan support, after months of House Republicans sitting on it. On a completely unrelated note, Hanlon's Razor sure is a concept that can be applied to numerous real-life situations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2024

• Chechen Republic is aligning itself with Iran just as Russia.
• UK announced more aid.
• Moldova confiscated money from pro-Russian opposition politicians. Likely to be used as bribes.
• Russia is blocking 150 VPN services.
• Ukrainian strikes and flood are affecting Russian oil refining, but only marginally so far.
• Russian mill bloggers complain about ineffective drone usage.
• Ukraine advanced near Chasiv Yar and Russia near Donetsk city.

Edited by Risa123 on Apr 24th 2024 at 11:25:39 AM

“Ukrainian strikes are successfully affecting Russian oil refining.” - I would say that is bit misleading as to ISW point. More like “Ukrainian strikes and flooding have marginally affected Russian oil refining, at least for now”

Semantics. Being marginally affected is still being successfully affected.

I wouldn’t call it misleading in the slightest, but rather say that it’s in need of clarification.

Edited by Angelspawndragon on Apr 24th 2024 at 2:23:27 AM

Well, sucess is defined by the difference between expectations and results. The first is officialy unknown, so... (Granted, the attacks didn't cause refining to increase...)

Good news, everybody! Finally, that bloody aid is going to be sent to Ukraine, says the Vox Newsletter. 

And not a moment too soon. In recent months, the tide, if you haven't heard, has turned decisively against the Ukrainians as they've been forced to conserve artillery and air defense ammo while Russia has been firing 5 times as many artillery shells (maybe even 10-1 soon, one U.S commander warns) and Ukraine's air defense systems becoming dramatically less effective, with terrible consequences for Ukraine's cities and infrastructure. It's estimated that Ukraine lost 583 square kilometers (225 square miles) since last October, when the U.S became cheaper about it's aid packages. The vital problem here is not the amount of territory but that the Russian advances forced the Ukrainians to waste their resources on repelling Russian attacks rather than taking the initiative. While a defending force has a 3:1 advantage over an attacker, and you can't win with a passive defense. You have to counter-attack at some point.

Now, not having that package of as much as $1 billion vehicles, artillery and air-defense ammo, back when it would have been most useful to prevent the loss of Avidiivka, as a deputy chair of Ukraine's defense committee said, and significant human losses. But can it actually TURN THE TIDE or is it BUYING TIME, more than two years into the war?

Vox answers this question immediately. "Yes, this is enough to stabilize the front lines," said Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine colonel and expert on defense logistics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "You’ll see almost an immediate battlefield impact." An analyst with the Center for a New American Security that had returned from a study trip at the front lines has also said that the new aid package was likely to "restore a situation more akin to November 2023, when the Ukrainians didn’t have to make as many trade-offs" when it came to which parts of the front line and rear targets to defend.

Very interesting predictions, considering the concerns by observers in Ukraine that it's defense could collapse entirely and the fortunate timing, as Russia had been stepping up it's strikes along the front line in anticipation of taking the offensive in the spring, where drier conditions were better for it's military vehicles.  However, "the package doesn’t address the most critical issue, which is manpower", warns that same analyst. More on why that is here.

It's expected to keep the Ukrainians from losing the war and buy them much-needed time, hopefully putting them in a better position to push back Russia's gains in 2025, with access to some new tools in the toolbox such as F-16 fighter jets and, more importantly, more ammo from the U.S and Europe's increased artillery ammo production, but once the front is stabilized, the Ukrainians have to answer the question, as Cancian put it, of "What is their theory of victory".

But there's some cloud to this silver lining: while even the most optimistic scenarios envision a long and costly war of attrition, the "long-ass and as painful as removing all your teeth yourself with rusty pliers and without anesthesia" process to get this bill passed suggests that even this hope may be difficult to obtain. If the new aid merely allows for a new stalemate rather than significant gains, international pressure for Ukraine to negotiate may grow more prominent. 

As for Russia's position in this equation, the passage of the bill signals that there's still strong political support for Ukraine in the U.S, though not as robust as it was two years ago-and if next year, we find ourselves in the darkest timeline, Ukraine would likely be pressured by You-Know-Who to give up territory to end the war. And that ain't idle speculation. 

(Though, recently, The Toxic Pretender, according to Vox, "ended up backing the new aid package after it was structured as a loan rather than a grant, an idea he had floated earlier.")