Tensions in the Southern Caucasus

Technically both Azerbaijan and Armenia are allied to Russia (though Armenia moreso, out of necessity, since they don't have Baku's oil bucks).

Armenia and Iran are very close (and Azerbaijan is basically in a cold war with Tehran, going so far as to be veeeeeerrry friendly with Israel and letting the Israelis use their territory to spy on Tehran), while the opposite is true about their relationship with Turkey (Azerbajian is close enough that Turkey has shuttered the border with Armenia since 1991).

Azerbaijan is, politically and culturally, Turkey's weird hillbilly sidekick. Though they're also Shi'a majority as a result of Safavid dynasty rule (who ruled over Persia but were Turkic in origin).

Armenia has been either a vassal or ally to Iran for *checks notes* just over a couple of millennia now.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jul 14th 2020 at 1:58:33 AM

Seems the Armenians killed an Azerbaijani general today.

Armenian MoD press secretary reported that the border situation yesterday was "calm"; 2 Azerbaijani drones reportedly were shot down.

Unconfirmed footage, purported to be from an Armenian drone, shows Azerbaijani armour moving towards the border.

No words from the Artsakh authorities yet AFAIK.

If things escalate, are either the Turks or the Russians likely to get involved? I feel like Putin would act if Armenia was losing, but would Erdogan try to attack Armenia is the converse is true?

Not sure about Putin's stance towards both parties right now, but I feel that Turkey is a lot more likely to get involved than Russia is. Though the "Four-Day War" in 2016 was a lot deadlier than this and it didn't seem to intervene overtly then.

Agreed. And given how often Ankara and Moscow are finding themselves on opposite sides these days, things could heat up more this time than during other flare ups.

Also, with oil prices suppressed for the foreseeable future, Baku might feel like now is a use it or lose it moment in terms of their military capabilities. Soon they won't have the money to maintain what they have, nevermind buy more. That coupled with Yerevan's increasing reintegration with Moscow would put Baku in a bad place in a large way.

Further, it seems the Azerbaijani public is fresh out of chill.

There's also the fact that Erdogan and Putin could benefit from using war as a distraction of inner problems.

As it wouldn't be a war any of them could be involved in without a serious risk of direct clashes with eachother, I don't think either Russia or Turkey would intervene in the form of direct military operations. Material support is likely though

Edited by LordforlornII on Jul 16th 2020 at 7:43:26 AM

And remember that the heart of the conflict is between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Artsakh. Painting this simply as a great power conflict between Russia and Turkey takes the agency away from the people actually living in the region.

Update: Aliyev just fired Azerbaijan's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov.

Edited by eagleoftheninth on Jul 16th 2020 at 9:38:13 AM

Indeed. The only involvement those two would have is in how much they (don't) restrain the main players, they certainly wouldn't directly hijack the conflict for themselves, for all the aforementioned reasons.

Seems nothing of worth has changed with the sacking, other than making quite a show of "We are not talking for a good long while".

Does Moscow's stated policy of demanding that the conflict stay cold, to the point of threatening to come in on the defender's side, still stand in reality (if it ever did)?

From what I remember reading about this years ago, Moscow really doesn't want this to go to hot.

There's a lingering worry on Moscow's part that a revival of the conflict would attract foreign Islamist fighters to the Azerbaijani side and cause a spillover to the restive Russian North Caucasus - something that IIRC Pashinyan has brought up in the past while courting Russian support.

I don't think it's anywhere nearly as likely as he made it out to be, especially since most militant Islamist groups aren't exactly in line with the Azerbaijani state, ideologically speaking. But the original war in the '90s did attract a fair number of fighters from Afghanistan, Chechnya and elsewhere in the ex-USSR (not just the Muslim parts), though mostly for pay rather than any ideological reason.

Russia doesn't want to deal with Baku's arsenal (that they provided). And nowadays, with Ankara being anything but passive, they could at the very least make things difficult for Armenia.

Then there is the whole logistical issue of Georgia. Tblisi and Yerevan might be on good terms, but if Russia were to come to their defense, I doubt the former would allow Russian military forces to cross over.

And these days, I'm not sure there is much appetite for backing Baku if Armenia struck first. Armenia's increasingly integrated with Russia via the Eurasian Union while Azerbaijan is a rival in the oil and gas markets. And thats without getting into the religious aspect of it.

Nothing to see here, just Azerbaijan threatening Armenia with a radiological attack.

That article also mentions an Armenian attack on a major dam in Azerbajian. They are rhetorically going for the big targets, aren't they.

Okay now if either actually followed through on such rhetoric, Russia would get the cover they need to still enforce "we hit whoever throws the first punch" doctrine.

I just hope neither Pashinyan nor Aliyev are stupid enough to do so.

A truckload of news recently:

UN chief urges maximum restraint between both nations after clashes.

Aliyev insists that Armenia must return the disputed region immediately.

An Armenian school in San Francisco was vandalized with threats and hate speech.

Violence broke out at the Azerbaijan consulate in Brentwood, Los Angeles, as Armenian and Azerbaijani protesters brawled.

Where Pakistan fits into the ongoing crisis.

How Iran might respond to renewed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Jul 25th 2020 at 12:09:03 PM

Ah yes, its always fun to read Pakistani takes on foreign affairs outside South Asia. It's delusions of grandeur make it fascinating.

EDIT- Seems the US Congress passed an aid amendment yesterday for Nagorno Karabakh.

Edited by FFShinra on Jul 25th 2020 at 6:48:08 AM

Wha-

(Also, I get that recognition of Artsakh statehood is a thorny issue all around, but has no one thought of interviewing people from there this news cycle?)

Is anyone doing meaningful deescalation work here?

I doubt that with COVID-19 still hanging around any actor that's too far from the region could do anything meaningful.

Armenians and Azerbaijanis clash in Moscow.

A report from the International Crisis Group on what might be done to resolve the crisis.

The US ambassador has been summoned to the Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Jul 25th 2020 at 4:47:37 AM

Aaand now the diaspora communities are duking it out in streets across the world.

...is that a Transcaucasian tradition? Kurds and Turks also duke it out in Western cities.