The nuclear programme of Iran

A defiant windfall? How does that work?

I meant Definite.

Oh.

I have to admit, a defiant windfall does sound wonderful. "I shall pie myself on the way down, and you can't stop me!"

Which sounds a lot more likely to happen than Assad getting a direct shot in the arm care of over-the-counter deliveries because of this, too. :/

edited 14th Jul '15 9:30:45 AM by Euodiachloris

The arms embargo remains in place. There is zero chance of this getting through Congress without it.

Congress can only try and block the deal and Obama has a veto on this.

Looks like a decent result but of course Bibi and his Republican friends stateside are throwing a fit.

But that's expected of them, almost the scripted reaction.

MRW Netanyahu complains.

edited 14th Jul '15 10:08:19 AM by Achaemenid

Does that matter? The Iran is used to arm embargoes and has consequently developed a domestic defense industry.

The arms embargo isn't being lifted for years anyway, so I fail to see the issue over that.

from what I understand the biggest problems with the deal is that: 1) inspection would have to be cleared in advance with some kind of international committee which mean Iran would have plenty of time to hide any wrong doing. 2) even if Iran would fully comply with the agreement, there is nothing stopping them from resuming their quest for nukes 15 years from now.

also apparently Israel is not the only country in the ME who is unhappy with the deal, the rest are just more quite about it

The Saudis are also unhappy, aren't they?

Also the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and the other Sunni Arab states.

The Saudis were cautiously backing the deal last I heard. Plus just because inspections aren't any time anywhere doesn't mean that they aren't going to be doable in a way that will catch any Iranian skulduggery.

Tyler Rogoway of Foxtrot Alpha on the deal.

On the subject of Assad being subject to windfall from this deal, it's irrelevant if he is or not...it's not money or equipment he lacks, it's manpower. So don't worry about him benefiting. Hamas and Iran are also on the outs because they support opposing factions in Syria. Hezbollah would pretty much be the ONLY beneficiary...and thats assuming Iran doesn't use the money to make the Iranian people happy after years of heavy sanctions.

They're gonna have to use the money for that, the Iranian people have been sick of the pain they've endured because of the sanction. If they don't see benefits now that the sanctions are lifted there's gonna be a revolt.

Precisely. I wish people would understand they actually are rational actors and not some kind of card carrying villain.

Pretty safe to say that Israel is going to make some sort of move in the future if this deal goes through. And if the GOP wins the White House next year, who knows what the war hawks will try and pull...

The thing is though, this agreement is not bilateral, but multilateral. If the US pulls out even when Iran is abiding by the deal, the other powers will simply dismiss the US as being pigheaded (which would be true, in this case) and then continue doing business with Iran. Because Tehran doesn't have much connection with the US economically as it is, they won't be all that affected if Congress reimposes sanctions, but that will tell them (and the world) that the US is not serious in negotiating. It would hurt US interests more.

As for Israel, they'll lean hard on the US, but I don't see them doing anything otherwise.

Iran will defiantly use some of, if not most of the money, to prop up their economy. But still, they are getting 100 Billion Dollars unfrozen, they could easily send a few hundred million Hezbollah or Assad's way. Also, I fail to see how wanting to prop up two of their most strategic allies is Iran not being a "rational actor." This thing will get passed though. Obama can almost certainly beg borrow and steal enough votes to make it so that even if he looses the vote he can veto the opposition.

Edit: As for Assad, well it wouldn't hurt him to get better equipment, especially since his air force is nearly depleted, and as for manpower, well didn't the Nigerians hire quite a few mercenaries to fight Boko Haram, I'm sure their are more than a few men who would be willing to fight for Assad in exchange for a good paycheck. Hell they are already basically doing that,by recruiting Afghans.

edited 14th Jul '15 2:13:41 PM by JackOLantern1337

What's defiant about that? Wouldn't it be defiant to use the money to circumvent the letter or spirit of this deal?

Or did you mean "definitely"?

Most of that money is probably owned by Iranian corporations and private persons, not the government.

If Obama does use the veto two-thirds of Congress would need to overrule him. That does not look likely. (A simple majority will be enough to force Obama to use the veto in the first place, but without the two-thirds majority all that achieves is a delay.)

His problem with that probably has more to do with finding willing sellers. I doubt that he's unable to afford what he wants.

@Jack - First, please check your spelling more often.

And more importantly, it's not money Assad needs right now. As I've said before, he needs manpower, equipment he already has and is continuously getting supplied for in the present by the Russians. Iran isn't going to waste money on him they didn't already have because thats not what he requires right now. Get that through your head first. Same goes for manpower. It doesn't cost billions to convince and take care of unemployed youths to do some fighting. That is, after all, how Da'esh also got its start.

And don't scare quote rational actor for Iran because its not appreciated. Iran isn't some snidely whiplash character, despite what the hawks and hardliners in the US might think. They have other things on their list that require money other than "durhur, lets be eeeeevul". Get THAT through your head too.

And Obama ain't gonna need to do that much begging and borrowing. Not if those opposed to him want to look even more foolish, given the time and effort this deal took. I don't imagine Bob Corker, for example, despite his doubts, being a stick in the mud. The onus is on the republicans right now and it'll be the ones who know foreign policy in that party that will prevent the dumbfuck swampdweller faction from ruining things for everyone.

Republicans that would otherwise vote for this in Congress may choose to vote against it now to pander to their base. Sometimes it's politically a good idea to vote for something that you know will fail, just to be seen voting for it, anyway. (And the same, of course, applies to voting against something that you know will pass anyway.)

I actually expect Republicans to vote as a fully unified block against Obama on this one, even if a majority of them were normally inclined to vote otherwise. "Against Obama" has recently been enough to justify anything in the Republican party, so appearing to stand firm while actually sacrificing nothing will be an appealing game to play for many of them.

I said more supplies "would not hurt him" it may not be a decisive edge, but it would be an edge over his opponents.

I still fail to see how Iran wanting to keep one of it's most valuable allies in power is not a rational action. And I scare quoted rational actor, because at the end of the day no nation is entirely rational. Their governments operate on some sort of nebulous principles,which they frequently violate in the name of expediency. In Iran's case, it view itself as the defender of the Shia, the ardent foe of Israel, and in opposition to US imperialism. If all of Iran's actions were rational they would have opened up for trade years ago,along with having not taken our embassy officials hostage. And you need to stop treating Iran like it is some poor misunderstood country that will behave itself if only given the chance. In any case like I said, the deal will be passed, and it could very well be the best we could have gotten, I don't know the exact pressures the diplomats were under, or the reasons for their decisions.

Edit: Oh and I never said all the money would go to Assad or Hezholah, but maybe a few hundred million out of a Hundred Billion dollars.

edited 14th Jul '15 6:37:12 PM by JackOLantern1337