Venezuela and the Chavez Legacy

Military intervention is kinda off the table for the United States, because it would actually make the situation worse. Not only that, it may send a wrong message to many of U.S. enemies like Iran and North Korea, where both countries will have further justifications of expanding their nuclear arsenal and justify threatening war with United States and their allies. Another consequence would be destabilization of Venezuela if the U.S. military were to get involved akin to the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The only other actual choice is to allow Maduro to continue ruling and well, that's what we're doing anyway.

And Venezuela...it already is a failed state. The Godzilla Threshold has being crossed

This isn't Iraq. This is Red Terror Ethiopia or Somalia

Edited by KazuyaProta on Dec 8th 2019 at 5:01:32 AM

If you ask me, a never-ending civil war like Somalia is very likely in Venezuela. If this would to happen, the U.S. military might get involved, but it'll be a "proxy war" where the United States would back the opposition forces while left-wing countries like Cuba, China, and Russia back Maduro's government (Russia is technically a right-wing government, but backs Maduro to maintain influence in Latin America).

Considering the situation in Venezuela, a civil war is more likely than a coup (which is coup isn't likely because of the military's loyalty to Maduro).

Edited by DarkPaladinX on Dec 8th 2019 at 2:22:58 AM

By this point, I’m starting to wonder if Colombia intervening and annexing Venezuela would be for the best for its people. Mostly from a monetary perspective since by the time Maduro finally kicks it the country would not be able to sustain itself, which would lead to warlords and other nasty stuff.

Edited by raziel365 on Dec 8th 2019 at 2:31:03 AM

Considering that Ethiopia has to get involved in what is going on Somalia due to the ongoing civil war, Columbia (and maybe Brazil) will find themselves in the same situation where they have to spend in peacekeeping forces to stabilize Venezuela if Maduro's government is toppled or if Venezuela collapses into a civil war, but will have to deal with sectarian violence and terrorism. You may not have someone like ISIS establish a foothold in Venezuela (since there aren't many Venezuelans that identify themselves as Muslim), but you'll most likely see neo-Marxist/neo-Maoist guerilla forces or terrorist groups backed by China and North Korea should Maduro's government is toppled and United States installs a interim government. If Venezuela collapses into a civil war, but Maduro's government still holds power, then you'll see United States backing far-right opposition forces, even if some of these opposition forces commit acts of terrorism of commit human rights abuses since United States care more on maintaining geopolitical and economic interest in Latin America over freedom and democracy.

Generally speaking, when authoritarian dictators are toppled, expect civil war and chaos to follow that would last for decades, as evident with happened in Iraq and Libya, and I would expect the same to happen in Venezuela if Maduro's government is toppled one way or another. Maduro's government made Venezuela a failed state, but removing him will make things worse, and it's very likely a civil war would happen.

EDIT: It wouldn't make sense for Columbia to occupy Venezuela if Maduro is gone either. It'll be too much of an economic burden for Columbia and Columbia may face terrorism from pro-Maduro forces in their own cities if they do something like this (and they are already have to deal with Marxist guerilla forces in their own borders). At best, they'll just maintain a peacekeeping force to keep any interim government stable in Venezuela. akin to how Ethiopia maintains a peacekeeping force in Somalia, but not occupying Somalia.

Edited by DarkPaladinX on Dec 8th 2019 at 5:43:12 AM

I think it would also depend on the local population.

If given the choice between joining a functional state over a failed one (with all the implications of infraestructure and stability) I think some people would be willing to accept assimilation into Colombia over being governed by an impotent state.

That said, this precedent would be problematic since the current international trend has been towards balkanization and smaller states. If some cities declared their intention on joining the Colombian state, I do not know how the international community could handle that.

You know, hearing about Venezuela in the news is quite different than being here. Inside the country once gets the feeling that Maduro is just a buffoon, a mere figurehead, while Diosdado Cabello is the true power behind the throne. Also the National Assembly has practically become a circus, but that's hardly a surprise at this point.

Yeah. The framing is very interesting. I honestly Take a Third Option and say that while Diosdado is the real mind, Maduro is also a active participant. He's buffoonish, but so Diosdado, unsurprisingly, dictators act like overpowered bullies, because that is what they are.

Also, the burned body of a retired Venezuelan General has been found. He was missing for two months.

I think all of us already can Imagine who was behind this, right?

Edited by KazuyaProta on Dec 8th 2019 at 9:16:53 AM

The Cartel of the Suns?

So some members of the congress got attacked by the government recently, not surprised since the PSUV will seek to take control of it eventually.

Guaido said something about taking actions in the 5th of January. G, I wonder for how long will the hype last this time?

Judging by most of the comments on Twitter, the hype has already died.

It sure is dead to me, but people trusting phony politicians won't die any time soon.

The interesting thing about the 5th of January is that a new president of the congress must be chosen. According to an agreement that the teams of the opposition made, the ones who should choose the new president are the minority groups of the congress.

The thing is that everyone, like the PSUV and the different factions of the opposition are seeking to take over the congress. I'm almost sure that the ones who should choose the new president should be Vente Zuelans, but I'm 90% sure Guaido is simply going to be re-elected. There's simply too many important players backing him up.

I usually wouldn't even bother with the whole mess since both sides will probably shit over the constitution, but I would love to see the different factions going all out against each other and some violence for once. (It's wrong I know)

I know I'm repeating myself here, but I still can't believe how fast Guaido fell from grace, so to speak. I could swear even Capriles had a longer life of popularity among the people, and that was a few years ago, when Chavez was still alive and the hell was still about to unleash.

Don't be surprised, many of us believed that diplomacy would be enough to get rid of Maduro.

Unfortunately, Guaido forgot to ask someone powerful enough to give him the backing (AKA the USA) before another could back Maduro, namely Russia and China.

That and another problem, the oposition is the living embodien of We are strugling togeder and herding that bunch of egocentric cats is hard as hell.

Second is it was some lack of planning because maduro was very close to go to cuba with operation liberty but most of the top dog of the army remain loyal to maduro.

By this point, Guaido should have straight up offered a pardon to the generals for any crime of corruption to get them to his side.

Not exactly the best course of action but one that would have gotten the job done. Hopefully.

Another thing is cuba and russia, aparently russia advice to maduro to stay which it did the job for him.

I remember how the first hours of April 30th were the very first time since the 2017 protests that I felt something could change, but when the afternoon arrived, all the momentum slowly began to disappear. After that, it all went downhill for 'White Dog'.

Edited by zaja on Dec 17th 2019 at 9:32:10 AM

Warhammer 40.000 was right in that: hope IS the first step on the road of disappointment

Putin’s advice was that, at the end of the day, Might Makes Right. An unfortunate reality of international politics.

Edited by raziel365 on Dec 17th 2019 at 5:36:28 AM

Maybe if the USA wasn't currently being run by an isolationist blowhard who is way too inclined to be friendly to Putin, things might have been different.

I don't think the "Hands Off Venezuela" thing actually had that much actual impact in the end, but they probably didn't help either.

It didnt, it was pretty much preching to the choir to tankie sympathizers and maduro apologist, trump didnt do anything because he is a blowhard and let face it, he is more worry about is on ass right now.

In my opinion, it only served to further alienate the locals from the Usonian scene.

Chavistas politicians voted on the National Assembly despite the fact that the SEBIN (Venezuela's Secret policy) prohibited the opossition from entering the palace. They voted for Luis Parra as the new President of the National Assembly, thus substituting Juan Guaido.

...

I'm angry, not surprised, but still angry.

Edited by KazuyaProta on Jan 5th 2020 at 3:21:19 PM

The only thing left would be if Maduro had the gall to ask the other presidents to recognize Luis Parra.

Yeah, that’s not happening any time soon.