The General US Politics Thread

Biden is +10 in many new polls today including Suffolk and Pew Research center.

If this holds (and I don't see why it wouldn't.) We're looking at 400+ E Vs on Election Night.

Trump is going to get routed, more than likely.

For what it's worth, Trump and McConnell are showing pretty significant leads in Kentucky. Trump has a 20% lead on Biden; Mitch has 20% over McGrath or 14% over Booker.

Of course, that's a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, so it isn't taking into account the effects of voter suppression and the like. I don't see any path to victory for Democrats here.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 30th 2020 at 1:04:37 PM

Prayer?

More seriously does this factor in anything life the re-enfranchisement of ex-cons? I remember it being mentioned Blevin did that.

Edited by sgamer82 on Jun 30th 2020 at 1:11:14 PM

I think the best Biden can realistically do is the 2008 map plus Arizona. The Texas polls are all of registered voters, not likely voters. Turnout among young voters and Hispanic voters is always low.

And it’s possible that Trump’s numbers will improve - they normally do, every time he does something outstanding terrible and people have had a little time to recover from it and put it out of their mind.

Plus the impact of COVID on the election will be huge. The Republicans are going to do everything possible to make it difficult to vote.

Clinton was 5-10 points up in the polls of the Midwest states that she lost (WI, MI, PA), so I wouldn’t count chickens even if it was November now. Much less in June.

Edited by Galadriel on Jun 30th 2020 at 3:16:35 PM

If Mitch is up that much, the DNC and national donors are going to have to think hard about how much money to put into the race. Only so much to go around, and there are more than a few GOP seats that are far more favorable races.

Fundraise like Hell at the state level of course, but allocate resources intelligently.

Neither Mc Grath or Booker had a shot in hell. They should be pouring money into AZ, GA, ME. All three are definitely winnable, although i personally think Susan is toast, personally.

Arizona is polling pretty well. Biden has a 4-7% lead on Trump while Kelly is killing it with a 9-15% lead against his Republican opponent.

Georgia's a battleground. We've got Biden in the lead by a mere 4%, while the Senate is neck-and-neck; Democrat Warnock ranges from -2% to +3%.

Maine isn't showing any recent polling, but as of May, Gideon was showing a 9% lead on Collins if she wins the primary, versus a mere 1% for Sweet. Maine will have their primary on July 14th.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 30th 2020 at 1:28:41 PM

Don't forget Colorado, North Carolina, Montana and Iowa, which are all possible pickups this cycle. Also Mark Kelly is raising enough money by himself that national Democrats probably don't need to spend as much on him.

Edited by nova92 on Jun 30th 2020 at 12:30:16 PM

The Democratic voter turnout for this race is notably larger than any in the history of the state for the Democratic Primary.

I think the idea is primarily to force Republicans to divert resources trying to shore up what should have been a safe seat, so that they'll have to not fund areas that are more of a toss-up.

Also, I can understand the idea with the Roberts decision in the religious schools ruling, as it's saying that if a State wishes to subsidize private college education, they must do so for all accredited private colleges, not just secular ones. I'm willing to bet that Roberts would have sided against the colleges if it had been textually exclude certain religious denominations, even if the practical effect for someplace like Montana would be nigh-exclusively Christian denominations.

Honestly, Mitch will get his ass kicked easily if we're united. To give you a sense of just how completely out of touch with the Democratic voter in Kentucky the DNC is, this is the results of the Primary.

Mitch: 340,372

Vs.

Charles Booker: 231,372

Amy Mc Grath: 246,098

Together: 477,470

So, MAYBE just maybe, Kentucky is not a fucking lost cause yet.

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jun 30th 2020 at 12:36:16 PM

Speaking from experience, Colorado is a sure thing. We kicked Republicans out of our state government in 2018 and scored a Democratic trifecta. The guy looking to swipe a Republican seat this year is a former governor that practically the whole state sees as Jesus Christ himself, descended from on high to run for political office.

We're also lacking for current polling, but in May, Hickenlooper rocked an 18% lead in the polls.

North Carolina's looking good. In polls of Likely Voters, taking into account suppression and the like, Biden's got a 6% lead. Democrat Cunningham leads by 9% for Senate seat, and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cooper is rocking a +21%.

Montana doesn't have recent polling but in May, Likely Voter polling shows Trump winning by 6%, and yet also suggested a 7% chance for Democrats to win the Senate race.

Iowa is very close. Trump's up by +1%, while Democrats have a 3% lead for the Senate race.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 30th 2020 at 1:36:07 PM

Was Mc Connell facing any serious primary challenge? If not, I would that think would depress turnout for the Republican primary because the outcome would not have been in doubt.

Undoubtedly, but the anger and energizing fury is there.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. How many Republicans would even bother showing up for a Kentucky primary?

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jun 30th 2020 at 1:41:12 PM

In serious terms, about half as many as voted for Mitch last time.

I think the primary numbers are a divided story. On one hand, Democrats have massively outperformed Republicans in the primaries only to get crushed in the general; it happened to Mitch McConnell in 2008 and 2014, Rand Paul in 2010 and 2016. On the other hand, while Republicans have increased their primary votes by about 30,000 from their 2014 numbers, Democrats have increased their share by about 100,000, going by the votes that are as of right now.

Edit: The numbers took a while to look up and I lost track of how many arrows I need. And also partially 'd

Edited by nova92 on Jun 30th 2020 at 12:45:04 PM

I read that Montana Governor Bullock, who is running for the Senate seat, has a 75% approval rating and is well liked by both sides of the aisle. Ergo, that's a very possible pick up even if there's no chance in Hell that Biden takes the state.

In any case, I do see your point that there are a lot of people who are upset about what's happening in Kentucky and want Mitch out. The problem is that having a lot of people doesn't amount to much when the other side has more a lot of people.

477,470 is a big number. But it pales in comparison to the 584,699 votes cast for Democrat Alison Grimes in 2014; the candidate who got stomped by Mitch's 806,795 votes. Kentucky is a Republican stronghold for a reason; if every single undecided voter in current polling went Democrat, every last one of them, no exceptions, Mitch would still win.

It's hard to justify pouring time, money, and effort into a scenario like that.

Bullock has good approval ratings, he's doing a good job on COVID, but he'll need anywhere between 30-80,000 Trump voters to vote for him, short of a massive political realignment in Montana. He pulled it off in 2012 and 2016 when he ran for governor, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed he can do it again.

Edited by nova92 on Jun 30th 2020 at 12:47:35 PM

I do have to ask - how's the Coronavirus outlook in Kentucky right now? I remember that it was faring a lot better than neighboring Tennessee largely because of the Democratic governor's influence, and I can't help but think that McConnell may actually be benefiting from that indirectly.

The fact that he's already won a state wide election as a Democrat with Trump on the ballot bodes well for him.

Edited by Rationalinsanity on Jun 30th 2020 at 4:50:35 PM

Admittedly, the Senate is a different ballgame than a governorship; this article from Sabato's Crystal Ball discusses how rare it is for an incumbent Senator to lose reelection when their party's presidential candidate wins the state. It's happened just 4 times out of 130 races dating back to 1992. And three of those cases were exceptional circumstances, with one person dying and another getting convicted of corruption just before the election. But Bullock is probably the only person in Montana who even has a chance of pulling it off.

Well I hope my fears will be disproved on Election Day but for now if by chance I was at Rich Mitch desk I would be LAUGHING my ass out now.

He has much bigger concerns than his own seat, because at the point he loses that, all his other political plans are screwed up.