The Arab Spring

^^^Think you wanted to say "imprudent". I think 34 is plenty old to at least have some restraint, but then, on Wikipedia andin real life I've seen plenty of imprudent hotheads of the same age, and MBS's behaviours certainly sound like "imprudent hothead"...

Ah indeed. Twas a typo.

Indeed. And he has a Those Two Guys thing going on with MBZ, his counterpart in the UAE (though I'm curious what their relationship is now given Yemen's turmoil among the coalition), which amplifies the effect.

MBZ, as far as I've seen, has done some genuine good work however, as opposed to MBS's fake PR good work.

Edited by Forenperser on Sep 19th 2019 at 9:19:18 PM

Zinedine Ben Ali, the former president of Tunisia whose fall kicked off the Arab Spring, has died today at 84 from prostate cancer, while living in exile in Riyadh.

It's funny, of the guys who were successfully deposed during the first wave of the Spring, only Mubarak is still alive....

A rapper in Idlib made this clip. Turn on the English subtitles.

So this isn't getting much coverage because there is so much else going on, but Egypt has been facing protests again, and this time they have a sort of leader, a self-described whistleblower and actor named Mohammad Ali, currently in self-exile in Spain.

Military is cracking down per usual, but it's not stopping them this time....

So, what are Ali's politics?

He's not affiliated with the Brotherhood, which is why Sisi is having trouble keeping a lid on this.

Seems to generally espouse the same positions as the protesters did during the first wave of the Arab Spring. Which doesn't really bode well for possibly having solutions ready in case this goes fast like it did with Mubarak....

What's this about the drone strike that the Houthis claimed responsibility for being actually launched from Iraq?

Which one are you referring to? There have been several over the last few months?

Speaking of the Houthis, they just released footage of them attacking Saudi forces in an offensive by them into the Saudi province of Najran. They claim to have killed or captured around 500 Saudi troops. Riyadh isn't saying anything one way or another about it as yet, according to Al Jazeera.

I'm referring to this post of yours. The only drone strike that I know of is the one that hit the oil facility in the Eastern Province last week, the resulting damage from which led to national oil production being cut by half IINM.

Claims that the attack in question originated in Iraq are not credible.

Ah that. Yeah that was an early report. Given that some months before, there HAD been a drone strike from Iraq on a Saudi pipeline, it seemed like a possibility at the time.

What, no one has anything to say about possibly hundreds of Saudi soldiers being killed/detained? On their own soil?

I glossed over that part in my haste. That being said, perhaps Riyadh is more concerned about the raging fires that are destroying Jeddah's Haramayn Train Station right now.

Edited by MarqFJA on Sep 29th 2019 at 11:38:50 AM

Yes but, and I ask this from honest ignorance, how much are the Houthi anything but pawns of Iran?

The Houthis are hardly pawns. Supported by Iran yes, but Tehran has very little control over them (you only have to look at the map to see why, but also they do not share Shia sects. Iranians are Twelvers, and the Houthis are Fivers). They basically spend a pittance on them (a few hundred thousand dollars a year) to keep Saudia bogged down in its war, but the Houthi militia are simply some of the best fighters on the Arabian peninsula, and have basically been in a near-constant state of war since 2004 when Badreddin al-Houthi, founder and older brother to the current leader, was assassinated.

If thats true, its no wonder they are losing the war currently. Losing 500 soldiers in Saudia proper is kinda bad to just gloss over. Assuming its true. Still needs independent verification.

Edited by FFShinra on Sep 29th 2019 at 8:29:26 AM

I saw the vid released by Houthi forces in Yemen. It's gonna be a huge blow to the Saudi coalition and I wonder how MBS will spin it.

500? The article only states five people were injured in the fires.

Edited by M84 on Sep 29th 2019 at 11:44:44 PM

More likely that those were Yemeni Hired Guns with Saudi National Guard gear and a few officers. Still not a good look.

This is what I'm referring to, not the train station

Though again, needs independent confirmation.

Probably Sudanese then.

Edited by FFShinra on Sep 29th 2019 at 9:47:34 AM

Okay, that makes more sense.

Hired Guns would be more of a threat than actual Saudi Army soldiers. Saudi troops are a joke from what I've heard.

Edited by Ramidel on Sep 30th 2019 at 7:14:49 AM

Supposedly one problem is that Saudi Arabia's military is kind of old-fashioned and more geared towards fighting the conventional wars of the past rather than modern proxy conflicts. Hence why they struggle even though they spend a lot of money on military equipment.

Edited by M84 on Sep 30th 2019 at 11:24:55 PM

The Saudis pretty much rely on the US as allies in that regard.

At least 70 have been killed in Iraq over the past four days of protests.

We're not quite at 2013 Egypt levels of violent crackdown yet, but damn.