The Arab Spring

I do remember reading up on Snow Leopard commandos guarding Chinese diplomats living in Kabul, acting as armed CP Os. I suspect that they’re doing the same thing.

Other than that, there’s not a lot of news of Chinese forces working with the SAA. Russia has the tradition for that.

If anyone has info on the PLA working with Syrian troops, let me know.

Although I spotted some photos of a SAA soldier posing next to some B J2020s.

Edited by Ominae on Oct 19th 2018 at 1:56:25 AM

As a result of the US demanding a ceasefire in 30 days for the Yemeni Civil War, the warlords on all sides are taking this as a signal to kill and attack as much as possible for the sake of gains that could possibly give said warlords leverage against one another during talks. The port of Hodeida, which has been under virtual siege for most of the year, is under renewed attack and bombardment by the Saudi-Emirati coalition.

Been awhile, but there are some updates:

In Syria, the Kurds have eliminated the final pocket of Daesh held territory along the Euphrates near the Syrian-Iraqi border. In response, President Trump has decided to withdraw all US forces immediately, leaving the Kurds open to attack from Turkey. And just to prove that's not mere speculation, one day before the defeat of Daesh at Hajin and before Trump's announcement, Erdogan made the point of stating that an operation was to begin imminently in north Syria, and has demanded the Kurds abandon their gains there or face the might of the Turkish Army.

In Yemen, the news is better. Negotiations in Sweden between the Houthis and the Hadi government have produced two outcomes: return of thousands of PO Ws, and a total ceasefire in the Governorate of Hodeida, the battle over which is causing severe economic and humanitarian shock far more than the rest of the conflict. They will reconvene for further talks in January.

In worse news, it seems the US is trying to strip out humanitarian concerns out of any UN resolution with regards to the conflict in Yemen.

Gotta keep those Saudis buying American weaponry. Isn't that right, PoTUS?

CBC and others are reporting that the TFSA are amassing just north of the Manbij salient. Meanwhile, the SDF are negotiating with Assad over the oil fields they currently control as collateral for their protection from Ankara. Separately, they are negotiating with the Russians to hand over what's left of their holdings in the north (west of the Euphrates) before Turkey seizes it.

This all sounds like the calm before the storm.

There are conflicting reports that the Kurds have handed over the city of Afrin to the Assad government in an effort to protect themselves against a possible Turkish incursion. The reports are conflicting because the US forces stationed there say its not happening.

Lot of protests in Khartoum, capital of Sudan. Initially over bread prices, when it started two weeks ago, now it's very much about regime change. Riot police are beating them down severely at the moment.

Perhaps a reblossoming of the Arab Spring??

Speaking of a spring, I am currently reading about Oman and have a question. Oman currently has an absolute monarchy but the sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said has apparently no heir apparent. And while Wikipedia suggests that he has a succession procedure implemented, to me it sounds like it could easily be contested. Is there any possibility of a civil war or other conflict there? I know that Oman is pretty much a separate sphere from the rest of the region as it keeps relations up with everybody and isn't involved in any major foreign conflict that I can see.

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Jan 1st 2019 at 11:36:30 AM

I dunno about going as far as civil war. There have been succession crises in the other Gulf monarchies from time to time, but those are usually resolved with palace coups (see Saudia circa 1960s or Qatar circa 1990s). Ultimately, it'll be whichever possible successor gets the most support from the rest of the dynasty and other elites. That being said, stranger things have happened, and it's no guarantee that the other players in the region won't meddle, given its current Swiss-like status.

All said and done however, the Sultan has been in poor health these last few years, so the advent of such an event is going to come sooner rather than later, if it happens at all. Me, I'm hoping whoever he chooses is good enough for all involved, for Oman's (and the region's) sake.

I think part of the problem is the Sultan being paranoid that if he names an heir apparent, said heir would not take long before he has the Sultan assassinated instead of potentially spending several years waiting for the old man to die from age or illness.

Speaking of Sudan, analysts have spotted Russian-speaking Caucasians around Khartoum with Russian camos and small arms.

I'd say that's a pretty good sign that a coup or assassination is imminent.

I think Wagner was confirmed to be operating in the area. A couple of Russian journalists got killed trying to report on them.

What's the relationship between Moscow and the genocidal fucks who run Sudan anyway? Because it sounds like Russia is moving into to prop them up, if anything.

Russia seems to be trying to foster largely the similar type of security dependence in African nations that China is creating.

In this case however, they might be too late to the party.

Checking on various sources in Africa.

Almost all the outlets are getting the same info that Russians are in Khartoum. Wagner as presumed.

From what I heard, they're the backup in case Sudanese police/military are getting overwhelmed.

Edited by Ominae on Jan 8th 2019 at 5:48:40 AM

I don't think this one is a political gig (in the sense that backing Bashir is of any strategic importance to Russia a la Assad), but more likely they are doing a favor to one of Bashir's patrons, of which he has many (Saudia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and Iran all have a hand in propping him up over the years, and given the relations between those four, you guys can imagine how that goes). Might also be a payment of sorts for him being the first current Arab League member to welcome Assad with open arms just recently. Or they are trying to lure in the Saudis or Emiratis to show them Wagner's capability, either as a showpiece for possible future contracts or, just as likely, a warning for what Wagner could do if used against them in, say, Yemen.

Bashir is now openly complaining that the protests are an attempt at replicate the Arab Spring.

Well let’s see if they succeed, if they do there’s also the possibility of it sparking other revival attempts.

A Trevor Noah has a segment on Trump pulling American troops outta Syria and "his response" if ISIL suddenly gets all powered up.

Weird. Not playing for me.

Though judging by the blurb you gave, this has to do with that Iraqi military base Trump has been crowing about?

Law enforcement in France/Germany announced arrests of Syrians suspected of commiting torture/war crimes as GID agents in joint raids.

Intel suggests that they masqueraded as refugees seeking asylum.

——

I don’t think so last I checked.

Edited by Ominae on Feb 22nd 2019 at 6:50:10 AM

Sudan is under a state of emergency.

Governors are sacked and Sudanese security forces are stepping in.

Most of the cabinet is sacked and constitution is suspended.

Although Sudanese intelligence reported that Bashir will step down...

No movement from Wagner.

It took 8 years but....looks like the Spring really has come to Sudan.

I'm curious though, who are the most organized groups in the country? Usually it's the Islamists, but...isn't he one?