When They Cry - Higurashi and Umineko

Don't forget that the detective is allowed to be deceived under both Knox's Decalogue and Van Dyne's 20 Rules, especially if he/she doesn't directly examine the crime scene. In the first twilight, Battler only glanced at the bodies, never doing anything to confirm their deaths (he said something about horrific make up when he first saw the crime scene) such as checking for a pulse ([[red: the correct way to do this in order to not be fooled by fake deaths is to check the carotid artery pulse). Given the lack of observing the radical disguise parts in the VN, that aspect of the disguise may be iffy under Knox's 8th.

Please read the manga. I highly recommend it. Since the manga is done directly by Ryukishi 07 himself, it is just as trust worthy as the visual novel, not to mention the manga version being both really good and very faithful to the VN.

Note: The strongest evidence in favor of the Rosatrice theory is actually in the 3rd novel.

On to the second novel.

1st Twilight: Due to the horrific nature of the wounds, I suspect the murder weapon is a shot gun. The culprit could have easily done the murder alone, taking about 2-3 shots since a shot gun is capable of killing multiple people, especially at short range. As for the closed room, this is actually a very simple double edged metaphor.

I suspect that the closed room is created as a result of a gold truth. The servants were NOT lying when they said the door was locked, they were just wrong. This is the gold truth since because the chapel is rarely used, they had VERY GOOD reason to believe the door was locked when it fact it wasn't. This is allowed under Knox's 9th.

2nd-3rd Twilight: The murder weapon is most likely a rifle with no specialist rounds (no AP or hollow point rounds).

The lack of Kanon's body is deliberate in order to set up the Demon Kanon Scenario. Rosa gave the key to Dr. Nanjo, who performed a simple "sleight of hand" trick to make the viewer believe the key was in Jessica's pocket.

Note: Rosa does not have an alibi since she split from Battler's group after the 1st twilight.

Demon Kanon: The servants were forced to lie about this scenario, note the incoherentness of them. The motive for this is as an exceptionally cruel Takano style "spread dischord and mistrust amonst the survivors" ploy in order to gain control of the master keys.

7th-8th Twilight: The fantasy perspective is dead on in terms of how and likely when this kill happened. This murder happened before the 4th-6th twilights. George and possibly Rosa due to Battler napping at some point while Rosa was not in the room are the possible culprits. After splitting from the group, George does not have an alibi.

4th-6th Twilights: Before I go into detail, there is a red statement I'd like to make that nessecary for anything else in this part to be understood.

The definition of point blank range according to forensic scientists and as a general average, is defined as any shot made at a range of 3 feet or less. At this distance, there is minimal difference in terms of damage inflicted on the target.

This is one of the most important piece of evidences in favor of the official explanation, and ironically my biggest problem in believing it due to inconsistancies with a similar scenario in the 4th novel, which is why I brought up that red statement. This is an inconsistancy that even the heavy object trick can't explain. It regards the lack of a hole in the back of Shannon's head assuming she used a pistol.

This scenario is also why I recommend reading the manga, since it goes into loving detail in describing what we're dealing with in terms of the stakes. They appear to be 1-1.5 feet long and 1-1.5 pounds with a very thin tip in terms of diameter (I'd say about the width of an arrow head or cross bow bolt which is typically .34-.37 inches). The weapon reminds me of a low quality trench spike (I provide a link to images of these weapons as they are very rare and essential to understanding what I'm talking about). Given those numbers, those stakes (and a typical trench spike) have a sectional density of about 7 psi.

To put that into perspective, Atlatl darts (a type of heavy dart dated back to the ice age that are nick named "Mammoth Killers" due to their purpose) have a sectional density of .96 psi and a military grade heavy spear has a SD of 2.2 psi. Any piercing weapon with a SD of greater than .9 is EASILY capable of piercing a human skull even at relatively low velocities.

The culprit is in the room. George and Shannon's deaths do not look pre-meditated. The posistion of the hole in George indicates to me a panicked defensive shot most likely with a pistol. The cause of Shannon's death is the stake itself. This is a very tragic scenario. Yes I'm aware that multiple characters don't think those things are weapons directly, but given those SD calculations, those observations could simply be incorrect, which is allowed under Knox's 9th. Nanjo however does compare those things to an ice pick, which is a device that is readily known to be able to pierce a human skull.

edited 3rd Oct '12 12:59:33 PM by magnum12

Shotguns don't quite work like they do in video games. =P

Just checked the manga for the first twilight in EP 2. I think it's more likely that they were poisoned, and the corpses were mutilated afterwords.

While possible to enact shotgun massacre, the results would probably much less precise and more chaotic, as seen in EP 4. (Or maybe just tiny bombs.)

Yes, shot gun AOE is indeed exxagerated in fiction, and there was most likely post mortem multilation like in the 1st twilight of the 1st novel, but shotguns can infact kill multiple people. Such mulilation could easily cover up the chaos. It wouldn't even take much effort due to the already horriffic wounds inflicted.

On a side note: I think a high power weapon wasa used in the 4th novel (Battler seems to imply a magnum pistol is involved) but I don't think a shot gun was involved. Knowing certain things about magnums (why you NEVER try to use one single handed), I think I can rule out a suicide with one.

Isn't there single, big bullets specially for shotguns? Like the ones used by Kasai in Matsuribayashi… going by the manga, the faces of the 6 victims in Episode 4 are quite literally obliterated…

edited 3rd Oct '12 12:47:43 PM by Lyendith

Seen here. [1]

What I mean more about Chaos, is that in the first twilight of EP 4, everyone ran around like crazy when getting murdered, their wounds were in different places as you would expect if someone walks into a room full of people and starts unloading.

EP 2 first twilight though, everyone's peaceful, not particularly panicked, and there aren't noticeable wounds aside from the stomach thing. Gut shots don't kill right away either, and are particularly painful. So, likely poison.

edit: They're called slugs. It's a bit hard with Umineko, since I don't think Ryukushi knows much about guns. Or at least, he doesn't know how to draw whatever those blocky monstrosities the adults are always carrying are supposed to be.

Major Spoilers: A bit of fridge logic there actually, since going by author theory neither Yasutrice nor Battler probably know that much about guns either.

edited 3rd Oct '12 12:52:49 PM by Oroboro

I'm not particularly inclined to read the manga and you should be able to figure out everyting just from the VN. I'll have the other twilights for EP 1 up later.

Can't imagine it's too hard to fire a gun. I've never fired one but make sure the safety's off, brace for recoil and shoot. Might not be too accurate but it would probably work.

edited 3rd Oct '12 12:57:08 PM by neobowman

You can understand with the VN just fine, but he manga is nice when discussing it because you can just point to a page and say "That" instead of trying to dig through the script and find particular bits of narration or dialogue that paint the scene.

Plus, the manga are supervised by R7 (or so the credits say), so there is no particular reason not to trust them…

As for the guns, considering the insane amount of research that the guy seems to do, I would be surprised if he didn't do any about guns. It's just that drawing a gun accurately is not that easy, let alone for him…

edited 3rd Oct '12 1:19:38 PM by Lyendith

Don't get me wrong, I believe the poison explanation is valid. The shot gun was my first impression when looking at the wounds. It actually doesn't conflict with either explanation for the closed room scenario. As for episode 4, due to the dimensions of the room, a point blank shot is pretty easy to get at most locations, and I don't think a shot gun was involved in those murders. Personally I think the weapon was a magnum pistol since magnums are VERY powerful for their size, being capable of producing some horrifically gruesome wounds, especially at short range.

Personally, I disagree about th assertion about R7 and guns. Refer to my blue truth about him being a brilliant man and very through in is research given the good track record regarding such things which is one of the reasons I trust him completely as author and game master. My thoughts on the matter are as follows: The gun looking like a hybrid of a rifle and a shotgun is not due to lack of knowledge, but probably for visual purposes, maybe Rule of Cool. Looking at Higurashi, the guns look reasonaly accurate in the 8th novel, so I don't think an issue of knowledge is the problem.

Regarding the guns, what I refer to is this. Due to their immense power and recoil, NEVER fire a magnum one handed. If you do, your arm most certainly WILL get dislocated somewhere. A normal pistol is just fine one handed, and a one handed shot is actually not that bad an idea with them either. Sure not as accurate as a two handed shot, but still reasonably accurate as shown on Mythbusters.

edited 3rd Oct '12 1:22:26 PM by magnum12

While brilliant in some things, I'd argue that Ryukushi skimps a lot in other places. Example: Not once does anyone ever get wet from the rain.

In any case, the results end up mattering a bit more than the methods. In the chapel, 6 people were killed and stuffed full of candy. Can guess all we want what happened inside, but in the end, catbox. And the cats are all dead

edited 3rd Oct '12 2:01:57 PM by Oroboro

I'm currently rereading Episode 1, along with the manga of Episode 4 (convenient since it has a summary of all the mysteries so far in the final battle).

First thing I noticed that baffled me: damn can Miki Ito's voice be poisonously sexy… it sounds like she is going to rape the player at the end of every sentence.

Second thing that baffles me: it's not just Episode 4, in every single episode, there is at least one murder where " everyone has an alibi"/" the victim is alone on the island", and " nobody commited suicide"; with the addition that "nobody was Faking the Dead". In other words, we are supposed to explain how a homicide was commited by someone who doesn't exist, without traps, and of course without magic…

That gets me back to the idea that "Beatrice" would be an abstract concept rather than a human or a witch, but that doesn't help me much…

Also another thing I had forgotten to think about: since Kinzō is already dead one year before the game starts, where is the family head's ring? I had thought it would be kept in the Gold chamber, but Natsuhi doesn't know it exists and Krauss probably doesn't know its location either… maybe Genji does though… at least that would explain how Eva obtained it in the third Fragment…

… I love this game.

edited 4th Oct '12 10:05:03 AM by Lyendith

I dunno if you've entirely grasped this yet, but it's spelled out a bit in EP 5. Basically, you can't fully trust anything that the Piece!Battler doesn't witness with his own eyes. Take a look at some of those seemingly impossible murders with that in mind.

Not that you should disregard fantasy scenes entirely, there's often hints there, but can be hidden in metaphor.

edited 4th Oct '12 12:09:28 PM by Oroboro

The fantasy elements have a kernal of truth to them. The things you are supposed to be looking at in terms of the murders are as follows.

1. The ending is the most important part.

2. The wounds seen in the end of the fantasy perspective are truthful in terms of a hint as to HOW the victim died in the anti-fantasy perspective. Note: George's death in EP 4 is infact correct. Recall that Gap changed the location of the wound.

3. The order of the deaths in the fantasy perspective is USUALLY truthful. There are some exceptions, namely in the 4th novel. I suspect one of the casualties in the 1st twilight actually died much later.

Found some evidence that strenghtens my blue truth about R7's research.

The Chiester Sisters' naming motiff is guns.

00 is named after a type of shotgun shell. 410 after shotgun ammo type. 556 after the .556 NATO assault rifle round. 45 after the .45 Colt (another gun with a reputation for being a nasty piece of work).

The name Chiester is actually a corruption of Winchester. If you google it, you'll find that the rifles in Umineko are not terribly far off from the actual design of a Winchester. Seems to be closest to the "carbine" form. Word of God says that the rifles used in the novels are supposed to be some type of Winchester.

http://www.tenmanga.com/chapter/UminekonoNakuKoroniEpisode421/245051-15.html

Something that strikes me with this murder is the size of the wound. Appears to be considerably smaller than many of the other wounds in the previous novels. Assuming the same kind of gun was used as in previous murders, I can establish a blue truth regarding this scenario.

The murder weapon is a rifle. Upon observing the smaller size of the bullet wound, assuming previous murders in the series also used a rifle, this means that there was considerably less kinetic energy upon impact. This shot was fired at medium to long range. The peaceful look on George's face seems to indicate that he did not see it coming, strongly indicative of a stealth kill.

The reason why I brought this up relates to Yasutrice and Battler not knowing about guns. Lack of knowledge about firearms throws some valid questions regarding competence with firearms. While is this admittably a moot point in most of the murders due to them being done at short range, this is a valid concern as to this murder scenario. IMO, I think that Rosa is a more likely suspect since we do see things in the 2nd novel that show her to be reasonalby competent with firearms.

The notion that a high powered weapon like a magnum being involved due to Battler's observations in the 4th novel ( due to not not having knowledge about guns) might not be Fridge Logic at all. A magnum's infamous (and well deserved) reputation for being a nasty piece of work is actually fairly common knowledge. As such, it would be reasonable for Battler's assumption to be valid.

edited 5th Oct '12 6:39:38 PM by magnum12

Even a gun can become a bunny if you fill it with love. ^_^

What I mean more about Yasutrice and Battler as authors not knowing much about guns, is that the guns in the story are never actually treated like guns. They're instead treated like Plot-Tools of murder/defense. There's never any consideration given of the type of gun, the caliber of the bullet, the trajectory of the shot, evidence of powder burns, the sound of the weapon, the difficulty of reloading or checking the safety or ammo count. * Some of this gets brought up in the EP 7 tea party actually, but it's still pretty far removed from the main narrative.

Therefore, a theory on the overall narrative.: Gun's are merely tools used to kill. Any specific mechanics involving guns are irrelevant to solving the mystery.

edited 5th Oct '12 7:39:53 PM by Oroboro

Yes I had understood that the shape of the final wound was a hint to the way the victim was killed. But I'm not referring to the fantasy scenes or the "how dunnit" here. I'm referring to the murders that happen even though all the people on the island have an alibi or are confirmed dead. Namely, Natsuhi's murder in Episode 1, Nanjō's in Episode 3 and Battler's in Episode 4 (I don't remember if there is such a case in Episode 2…)

Battler kind of goes around this for Nanjō's murder but his theory is very shaky. In Episode 1, there are several faceless corpses and there is no red at that point… For Episode 4 however, the situation seems completely locked by the red. "You are the only one alive on this island. And yet I am here and am going to kill you. Of course I am not you. Whooo am I?"

Well, I think I'll jump into Episode 6. I'm not going anywhere like this.

edited 6th Oct '12 9:43:53 AM by Lyendith

Battler already answered the Nanjo question for you, or at least provided a blue truth which was never countered.

" However, their deaths were not proclaimed in red at the instant Doctor Nanjo died. Strictly speaking, it was in the fight between me and EVA after Doctor Nanjo's corpse was found. In other words, if someone who was alive at the time that Doctor Nanjo was killed died before EVA proclaimed that death, you can sew right through that crack!! In other words, it's like this. One of those who were first made dead by EVA's proclamation of the deaths, was able to skillfully play dead earlier and wait for us to pass by...! And while their death still hadn't been proclaimed with the red, we were made to think that they had died. Then they killed Doctor Nanjo, ......and later died for some reason! Then after that, EVA proclaimed their death in red!! "

It's a bit wordy, but basically: Someone faked their deaths, or wasn't dead when Battler thought they were > They kill Dr. Nanjo > They die for unknown reason X > Eva pronounces everyone dead.

Just like in EP 5, context, and even the time the red truth is given matters in it's meaning, and can be used to mislead or deceive.

Not examples from the series, but consider the following statements. This is a sandwich. : This is a peanut butter jelly sandwich. : This is a peanut butter and jelly sandwich with an needle inside of it.

Every one of those can be true when talking about the same sandwich, but only one of them tells you the most important information. Another example can be assumed from the examples in The Treachery of Images , with "This is a pipe!" and " This is not a pipe!" both being valid.

Just some things to think about.

edited 6th Oct '12 7:15:53 AM by Oroboro

Hum… time and context of the red huh… but I don't see how that helps for Beato's last riddle…

Maybe " Battler is the only one alive on the island" and " I'm going to kill you" don't actually happen at the same time… but after Battler is dead he is no longer "the only one alive" so that doesn't work… hummmmm………

………

Proceeding in Episode 6. So this is Featherine Augustus Aurora… since she was listed as an expy of Hanyū I didn't quite expect her to look like this but she does have the same old-fashioned and slightly condescending way of speaking as goddess!Hanyū ("hito no ko yo…") That leads me to wonder: what was Hanyū exactly? Was she the Witch of Forgiveness or something? She doesn't seem to fit anywhere in Umineko's mythology… the Gods mentionned here and there seem to be something more… impressive than an apologizing ghost.

edited 6th Oct '12 11:15:51 AM by Lyendith

It's hard to say too much more without spoilers but consider this - why does every game end at midnight on the second day?

As for Miss Augustus Auuuu, honestly, I have no idea. Whatever connection she might have to Hanyuu is left incredibly vague, even more so than Bern/Lambda.

For what I've seen, I don't think she has any connection to Hanyū. She's just a character with vaguely ressembling traits: a "Au Au" in her name, a similar speech pattern and a head device that looks like horns. And a Deadpan Snarker as a partner.

edited 7th Oct '12 9:03:48 AM by Lyendith

Simple explanation actually. One that I can explain in blue.

Miss Augustus is an Expy of Hanyuu "in name only". Any "connections" are there as an act of (quite funny) trolling against Epileptic Trees and WMG types.

Now then, I'm kinda interested as to what arcs of Higurashi people prefered more than the others. Might as well start with mine. Note: Ranking the 4-6th posistions is actually quite difficult for me.

1. Watanagashi-hen

2. Mekashi-hen

3. Atonement Chapter ( cut above the rest IMO).

4. Massacre Chapter

5. Festival Music Chapter

6. Tatagoroshi-hen

7. Time-Wasting Chapter ( a bit weaker than the other chapters IMO)

8. Onikakushi-hen

1. Minagoroshi - It felt like the true, proper conclusion. Keiichi appeals to the town and really gets shit done. People have made real progress.
2. Tsumihoroboshi - The inspection of Keiichi's character was appreciated and the way the story was finally started to tie itself together was good.
3. Tatarigoroshi - The conclusion to the first half of Higurashi. It really had me guessing a lot about what was going on. Though since I read The Tommyknockers I think I guessed the basic plot a little easier than most people would, but I didn't have it entirely right either.
4. Watanagashi - The arcs take a big drop from here. Anyway, I liked the Mion focus.
5. Onikakushi - Really set up the story quite well. Did not really know what was going on
6. Meakashi - The sameish story was probably told better here, but Shion was just so incredibly unsympathetic to me that she never really recovered. She didn't go crazy because she had some disease, she was just psychotic.
7. Matsuribayashi - It got a rather chilly reception from me since it followed my favorite arc and was just too easy for the protagonists. No drama at all. Also, Takano was kind of a karma houdini.

And I don't count the last one.

I'd argue that Shion did have it and as probably already L2 or L3 by the end of the 1982 section, with the trigger being the events during/after the "distinguishment scene". Mekashi-hen ranks high with me due to the HSQ of it all, being the most horrific/scary chapter of the series IMO. The sheer level of the culprit's "fall" is the most intense and also part of the horror present in the chapter. The unique interaction of the parasite with Shion also adds to the horror IMO. When I compare the 5th novel to the Demon Path of Soul Nomad, I'm not kidding. Since I'm not the kind of person that's easily scared, I sincerely tip my hat to R7 for being able to creep me out, not to mention being able to make me physically feel sick with the first twilight of Umineko.

I got into When They Cry via the anime first. Had Watanagshi-hen pretty much figured out by the end of episode 7 thanks to a certain "smoking gun". Had the identity of the Big Bad and the cause of the cycles of murders figured out by the Atonement Chapter. Had my suspicions that Mion was an accomplice (and the whydunnit) in the Teppai murder scenario in Tatagoroshi-hen confirmed in the Atonement chapter. The only scenario I couldn't solve before the solution came up was the 1980 murder scenario (barring the howdunnit). In retrospect, I really should have seen the clues to this scenario coming in Tatagoroshi-hen.

edited 7th Oct '12 2:09:34 PM by magnum12

Maybe she did have it, but it didn't show in her behavior. Didn't show for Takano either. You could tell that something was wrong with Keiichi. Especially in hindsight.

I agree with Magnum regarding Featherine. It looks just like that: a big fat troll from R7.

For Higurashi, my order would be:

• Tsumihoroboshi: Unequaled in terms of intensity. The description of Rena's syndrome literally made my elbows and neck itch all over. I had teary eyes during the confession scene. And the interaction between Rena and Keiichi at the end was the Crowning Moment Of Heartwarming of the series. "Gods send you words of perdition" and "Death and Rebirth" did the rest. Also, progressively changing the color of Rena's text in the VN was genius. And ironic in hindsight, since in Umineko the red text is used to break the delusions...
• Meakashi: Shion's fall was horrifying but thrilling at the same time. And yet I still cried for her at the end. You can't help but wonder with her "why did it turn out this way?" And once again, the musics... especially since it's the arc where they really start to become memorable. And Rikas's suicide... I think I didn't eat anything on diner after reading that scene...
• Minagoroshi: Memorable for the massive Hope Spot effect and for two passages in particular - Keiichi convincing Oryô and the murder of the heroes. In the latter even though you know it won't end well you still hope until the end. What makes the scene terrifying is that it's not a slow and painful murder with a whole lot of build-up. No, it's cold, emotionless, and instantaneous. One pull on the trigger, and the lively club members stop breathing. Shivers.
• Tatarigoroshi: My favorite question arc, where the madness and whatthefuck-ness reach their peak and where I understood that Takano had killed Tomitake. But I naively thought that the latter maybe happened only in that arc in particular; I lowered my guard. However, I'm a bit skeptical about Mion and Rena's idiocy, and more generally the ridiculous amount of Contrived Coincidences, after Teppei's murder. Bonus points for the manga gamer version, where Track 15 and 16 actually work better than the original musics.
• Watanagashi: A bit less intense than the above. However it was admittedly the first time ever that a work really, really scared me shitless. I first saw it in anime, and "Mion"'s laugh as she drops the hammer still haunts my nightmares.
• Onikakushi: Well, this was the first arc, the author's style wasn't entirely polished yet and it's a bit slow to take off. But the atmosphere of paranoia and insanity already came out wonderfully.
• Matsuribayashi: (note: I consider the arc begins after the fragment section) It is enjoyable in its own way, and there were a lot of awesome scenes, but admitedlly, without the mystery and tension it lacks something compared to the other arcs. And the epilogue is disapointing. Too generic.
• Himatsubushi: Right, it's kind of a bonus arc, but still a bit tedious to read. Akasaka is the main cause of it, as he is one of the rare characters of When They Cry that doesn't make me budge. I don't hate him, but I don't like him either, he's just... bland. I was surprised to learn that his seiyuu was the same as Battler for that matter... the guy has some pretty flexible voice. Compared to Itsuki he's barely recognizable.

Well Shion did hear the footsteps, had hallucinations and acted violently towards those she considered her enemies. But it's true that her behavior looked like misaimed suspicion rather than outright paranoia. As Irie says, Hinamizawa Syndrome manifests itself differently depending on the people. For Takano I think Tomitake mostly said that to save her, it's not clear she really had it.

PS: I read from several people that "Miotsukushi" in the PS 2 remake was better than the original ending, did some people here have the occasion to read it?

edited 8th Oct '12 9:04:13 AM by Lyendith

I heard stuff about Miotsukushi-hen, like Hanyuu dying.