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This is a "Wild Mass Guess" entry, where we pull out all the sanity stops on theorizing. The regular entry on this topic is elsewhere. Please see this programme note.
Elementary
Holmes' penance is due to getting JOHN Watson killed during a case in London.
  • Imagine if The Three Garridebs had gone badly, and John Garrideb's bullet had killed John. So Sherlock goes on such a drug bender that Mycroft and Daddy!Holmes relocate Sherlock to America, to get him away from triggery memories. He vows never to play the violin again, because John used to love it so.
    • So far, all that's proven is that Holmes' breakdown has something to do with the death of Irene Adler. Holmes has yet to provide any further information.
    • It seems Holmes left London in disgrace because of his spiraling into addiction because of the death of Irene Adler, and all his reasons for being in New York can be traced back to his actions and reactions regarding these two events.

Holmes used a DVR to play a trick on Watson.
  • It would be pretty hard to "deduce" the future lines of a soap opera, even if you are Sherlock Holmes. Ditto for the baseball game at the end. Even if he knew that the outcome he predicted was statistically the most likely, there's no way he could know that a less likely one wouldn't happen instead. (As any sports fan can tell you, part of the attraction of watching sports is that the so called "likely outcomes" can and do get thrown out the window all the time.)
    • With the soap opera, you could also assume that he had just watched the scene, ran it back, and was showing off his amazing ability to recall and mimic words, tone, and inflection. Still using a DVR, but not to "deduce" anything.
      • Sort-of confirmed in "The Long Fuse": He uses the array of screens as a means of giving his memory a workout. It's possible that he was able to predict an as-yet-unsaid line due to having seen enough of said soap during these exercises to see where the storyline was going and feel out the style of the writersnote , but it's also possible that he was just confirming that, even with all the screens going at once, he was able to isolate and flawlessly repeat a snippet of dialogue.
    • I also just realized that he couldn't have planned that for the baseball game. It was Watson's idea to watch it, not his. Still begs the question of how he predicted something that's inherently unpredictable. (Even Holmes' ability to know things ought to be limited to things that can actually be known. He's a genius, not a psychic.)
      • Or is he?
      • Of course, many extremely smart people really do spend a lot of time predicting the results of baseball games using particular figures and formulas (it is called the game of nerds). Some of them are known for being generally accurate. Since Sherlock is an unrealistic genius, it is fair to suggest that he might be even more accurate than most.

It wasn't Irene Adler that drove Holmes to his breakdown in London.
  • It was genderswapped!Moriarty. Because genderswapping Moriarty and Adler would be interesting.
    • They already Gender Flipped Watson, so sure, why not?
      • Jossed as of "M." Moriarty had Irene killed, which led to Holmes' breakdown.
      • Not Jossed, if Irene Adler and Moriarty are the same person. And remember: there was no body.
      • Confirmed, since Irene and Moriarty are the same.

Holmes will find a way to restore Watson's medical license.
  • He was probably curious about how Watson accidentally killed a patient and deduced that she was framed. In the books, Holmes helped Dr. Watson with his medical practice in his own odd ways. This Holmes would do the same.
    • Comments in the series imply that Watson's license was suspended, not revoked. She just chose not to try to get it reactivated. Though Holmes could end up convincing her to try at some point.

Holmes in fact tried to kill himself.
  • It's plausible, isn't it? He adopted a personality (brash and too cheery but still retained some of his Jerk with a Heart of Gold traits but used them openly; the sincerity are genuine) that is too unlike his canon self nor any versions of Sherlock Holmes in fact. It's heavily implied that he isn't well-liked by New Scotland Yard and his "friends" are Lestrade and Gregson. In London, smoking is banned and the use of drugs isn't heavily enforced. Taking that he might be depressed before meeting Watson, it's very likely he tried to commit suicide because he doesn't think his life is worth living. People hates him and nobody, nobody appreciates him for his genius nor his willingness to solve the crime. He decided to hide himself behind a smile and tried to convince himself and Watson that he is in fact quitting drugs. I believe he was quick to drop the drugs after meeting Watson because he believed that he finally can have someone who can appreciates him for who he is. Watson was amazed after all and he really believes she can be his friend after the maltreatment and unappreciation. The move to New York might even scare him because he knew nobody there but Gregson and afraid NYPD might react the same way New Scotland Yard did. In fact he might be "recovering" to say to speak since he met Watson. Watson, despite trying to get him out of his "rehab" and "babying" him, seems to treat Holmes as a person she wants to help and treats him like a person. Gregson seems to treat him like a person that he dearly wants. Keep in mind that it implies Watson only knew he's in "rehab" because of drugs and doesn't know the exact details but rather help him. She only seems to know that it's addiction (which isn't far off from the Sherlock Holmes characterization) but this could provide a much deeper reason for the modernization and characterization.

Watson will reveal martial arts abilities.
  • Lucy Liu has practiced martial arts and in the original stories, Dr. Watson was revealed to be a fighter. The producers might use the actress' abilities.
    • Holmes is currently trying to get Watson to take self-defense classes, which may provide an excuse for her actress to show off her skills in some later episode.
      • Watson does get a pretty good Action Girl moment in "Step Nine".

Moriarty will not be an Evil Brit on this show.
  • Instead he will be an evil Yank to contrast with the classic formula.
    • Possibly Jossed; the man claiming to be Moriarty has a British accent.
    • Played with. Even bigger spoilers: Irene IS Moriarty, but Irene Adler identity is American. Moriarty is British. She was just pretending to be American

Sherlock Holmes' "father" is actually Mycroft.
  • Because we all know that Mycroft Holmes is a Magnificent Bastard, and that "father" probably sounds more authoritative to the sober companion agency (agency? collective? what?) than "smart-arse older brother." And Joan Watson has never spoken to him in person—it's always via email or over the phone. And Sherlock seems pretty disdainful and awfully sarcastic whenever Watson brings up his "papa" (to be fair, though, that's pretty normal for him).
    • The first initial of Watson's employer has been confirmed to be M, making this plausible.
    • On the other hand, in the episode "M" (a very arc-centric one, and so unlikely - though admittedly not impossible - to have continuity slip-ups), Joan mentions to the police that Sherlock was looking at other properties owned by his father. Even if the police didn't know at the time, they probably would have found out whether or not Sherlock's father was around to actually own those properties. While this is far from an ironclad rebuttal, it does shed a bit of doubt. At the very least, unless Mycroft is tricking the police into thinking that father still owns those properties, father Holmes is at least providing Sherlock's living space. Or the police simply didn't think it necessary to correct Joan, which is certainly probable in real life. Not so much in a thriller show, or at least for Foreshadowing.
      • Since, if a version of Mycroft is around, then he or she is so integral to the United Kingdom that it is said "at times, he is the British Government." With that level of power, I doubt that making himself Sherlock's legal father is all too difficult.
    • Mycroft's appearance in the show has him mention their father, implying that he is a still living different person from Mycroft himself.

"Mycroft" is Sherlock's sister.
  • Possibly not named Mycroft. Speculation comes from the fact that Jonny Lee Miller has a tattoo that says "Mother Father Sister Brother". This has been seen on-screen. Of course, it's also possible that Sherlock has a brother Mycroft and a sister. Enola Holmes anyone?
    • Jossed. Mycroft is played by Rhys Ifans in season 02.

Thomas Gregson is an amnesiac Paul Cooper.
  • The actor playing Gregson, Aidan Quinn, is the same guy who played the husband in the 1999 movie In Dreams, so my theory is that Paul wasn't killed, he was just given a concussion. He woke up at the hotel probably a few days later not remember anything up so he stated walking down the road. Someone later picked him up and was nice enough to help him. How he got to London perhaps that person was from London and he/she offered him to come stay until he gets better after getting an idea on how bad of amnesia he gotten. Either Paul or the person chose the new name Thomas Gregson and he then decided to take up police work at Scotland Yard. That's where he met Sherlock who in no time deduced that Thomas Gregson wasn't his real name and such. Sherlock then didn't confront him on the insisting on the other person stating that Paul seemed happy being Thomas and that he was having a better life compared to his old one.

Holmes got kidnapped on purpose in "Rat Race".
  • Okay, so maybe there isn't too much "wild" in this Wild Mass Guess, but I'm going to post it anyway. Basically, Holmes had no real evidence against that killer except for the fact that they were one of only three people who'd been in all of the murder locations at the right time. So he told the killer what he knew, figuring it would pressure the killer into doing something rash (like kidnapping him) that could be used as proof of their guilt. (It wouldn't be hard for a jury to connect those dots: Why kidnap and try to kill the guy who had come up with this theory about you if it wasn't true?)

This Holmes is not Sherlock Holmes, but rather Sherrinford Holmes.
  • Sherrinford Holmes is a fanon or at least implied brother (younger or older, give or take) of Sherlock and Mycroft Holmes. It could be noted that his deductions aren't as incredible as Holmes always is. Sherrinford took the identity of his 'dead' brother and tried to continue his brother's career if he hadn't met an untimely demise. He admired his brother from afar (and grew envious of his fame and fortune and especially a partner who is his perfect match (as romantic partners/friends)). He took drugs at his terms to get rid of his depression that he's not exactly the model son like Mycroft or at least impressive like Sherlock. His father sent him on rehab which Sherrinford did to appease his father. When his father learned that he took the identity of Sherlock, the father played along and even brought him a Watson.

We've already seen Moriarty.
  • Chances are they'll use a trick similar to the one that Sherlock used, introducing Moriarty as Jim from IT, who appears to be a one-shot character created for small joke about Molly Hooper's infatuation with Sherlock. Chances are Moriarty could be any Canon Foreigner.
    • Played with. Moriarty was referenced by another name before first being mentioned as Moriarty, but Moriarty's first actual appearance was only one episode before being identified as Holmes' archnemesis.

Adam Kemper will become Moriarty.
  • We saw his Start of Darkness in "Child Predator." He's a sociopath, he's brilliant, and we've already seen him fool Holmes once. He even says at the end that he'll be out of prison soon enough and Holmes will see him again.
    • "M" reveals that Moriarty has existed for several years prior to the beginning of the series, but Adam Kemper could always become a copycat Moriarty...
      • Jossed.

The Super Bowl special will be The Reveal for Moriarty.
  • It's supposed to explain some of the events in London that lead to Sherlock's downfall and subsequent relocation to New York, and what better time than this to establish Holmes' mortal nemesis? Granted, we do already know that the main party in the incident was a woman, but there's nothing to say that whoever she is (Irene Adler or otherwise), Moriarty couldn't have been involved in some capacity.

Irene Adler was a cop who underwent a Face-Heel Turn.
  • She and Sherlock may have had a working relationship similar to Gregson's relationship to him and she probably betrayed his trust and turned to a life of crime. He went spiraling down because she was an excellent cop and he couldn't fathom why she'd turn to crime.
    • Jossed. The events of "Risk Management" reveal she was an artist.

Holmes really had been an opera lover before his drug addiction.
  • In the pilot, Holmes' father had apparently told Watson that he loved opera, and Holmes denied it, claiming that he saw a few shows as a child and his father assumed he was a buff. But we know that his breakdown had something to do with Irene's death, and what was Irene Adler's profession in the original stories? Opera singer. Holmes is now avoiding the opera to keep from anything that would remind him of her.

Irene is alive.
  • When Sherlock says that she's dead, he does so only after a very long pause, and seems as if he's trying to very carefully pick his words— furthermore, if he did indeed receive those letters while he was in rehab, she would have to have still been alive. Rather, she did something so unspeakable as to render her a complete non-person to him, and when he said she died, he meant it in more of a "she's dead to me" kind of way.
    • Alternatively, Irene faked her death, and it possibly had something to do with Moriarty. Whether or not Sherlock knows Irene is Not Quite Dead is up for debate.
      • Even "M." doesn't necessarily discount this theory. While Irene's blood was found at the crime scene, Holmes does mention that a few of the victims were a case of Never Found the Body. Adler or Moriarty could easily have taken pints of her blood away over a long period of time and simulated her death.
      • Furthermore, the same episode revealed that everything Sherlock thought he knew about Irene's death was wrong— Moran wasn't involved, and who knows what kind of trickery Moriarty himself could have pulled?
      • Irene Adler's claim to fame in the books is that she's the one who tricked Holmes. What better trick than convincing the Great Detective that she's dead when she's really alive?
    • CBS has announced that Irene will appear in the show, being played by Natalie Dormer. However, they have not said whether she will appear in the show's present or just in flashbacks. Her first appearance will be May 9.
    • Confirmed. In "Risk Management" she's shown to be very much alive and in "The Woman/Heroine" we discover that she is, in fact, Moriarty.

Why John is Joan
  • I don't think it is a set up for a future relationship between the two. I think they did it simply because the creators were sick with all the gay jokes of Sherlock and John and made John Joan to stop it.
    • Robert Doherty actually wrote Watson's role as a woman thanks to a conversation he had with a friend about Sherlock's misogyny in the canon and how cool would be if the person he is closest to was a woman.
    • And it hasn't exactly stopping shipping Joan/Sherlock, despite the creators saying they'll keep it platonic.

This version of Moriarty will be related to the Westies.
  • Moriarty is an Irish surname and the Westies are an Irish gang that operates in New York City.
    • Jossed.

Marcus Bell is Moriarty
My reasoning:
  • The writers will most likely do what Sherlock did, make Moriarty someone who's already appeared in the show before being properly introduced
  • Something wasn't quite right about the phone call he took in Sherlock's apartment.
  • The fact that he doesn't quite fit into the typical Sherlock Holmes mythos. Typically, the detective working with Lestrade will be cynical of Sherlock's motives (Anderson and Donovan, for example); aside from a brief moment in episode 1, Marcus has almost no skepticism of Sherlock's methods.
    • Arguably, they could have just given the 'Anderson and Donovan' aspect to Gregson and made Marcus the one who often agrees with Sherlock
  • Jossed.

O'Brien, the suspect from "You Do It To Yourself", is Moriarty
  • Sherlock's reaction to him at the end of the episode after working so hard to get him cleared of the crime was extremely out of place.
    • Jossed.

Irene Adler is/was Moriarty
  • There's already speculation that they'll do a Gender Flip with Moriarty just as they did with Watson. Combining two of Sherlock Holmes's greatest adversaries into a single character would add a new dimension to the Foe Yay already extant in original stories. Yes, Sherlock believes she's dead, but it was stated in "M." that some of the bodies were never found. Irene's death could've been faked by drawing her own blood over time and planting it at the crime scene so they would assume she died of blood loss even they didn't have a body. This way she could go back in hiding and continue her work in the shadows, so to speak.
    • Confirmed

Sherlock from Elementary is related to Sherlock from Sherlock and they exist in the same universe
  • Okay, don't attack me for this idea, but it could work and it could even offer up a chance for fans of both series to try and get along. Gregson from the books was sort of a rival inspector to Lestrade. One series has Lestrade and the other has Gregson. Irene is dead in Elementary and she faked her death (twice) in Sherlock. She could have easily have encountered Elementary's Sherlock prior to her involvement with Moriarty. The Sherlock from Elementary hasn't mentioned having a sibling yet, only his father, so he might not have Mycroft for his brother in this series. That would work out since there wouldn't be two Mycrofts essentially running the British government (though that would be a scary thought). The two Sherlocks wouldn't be necessarily close relations since sharing the same name could be problematic if they were siblings or something (though the Holmes family is already demonstrating a tradition of using more obscure names). So, these two detectives could be distant cousins.
  • They wouldn't even need to be distant cousins. I agree they wouldn't be siblings but they could easily be first cousins, especially if Sherlock is a family name. It happens, trust me - two of my mother's first cousins (also cousins to each other, not siblings) have the same first name as my aunt (Mom's sister) because it's a family name. And it's not the only repeat; nicknames are the easy fix for the question of "er, which one do you mean?" So it could happen.
  • And it could be funny if Joan's reaction is 'There's two of you?!'.
  • That would probably be John's reaction as well.

Moriarity is "Le Chevalier" from "The Leviathan"
  • Stay with me here. Moriarity is "Le Chevalier". Not the guy that Holmes and Watson recovered the loot from, but the guy who approached the member of the original crew and bought the secret, using the alias "Le Chevalier". The true Chevalier obviously wasn't behind the copycat crime, having been in the hospital at the time, but assuming the guy in prison wasn't lying his ass off, someone did approach him and buy the secret. Using a fake name that belongs to a legendary thief? Buying the secret to cracking a supposedly uncrackable safe? Tell me that doesn't sound like a Moriarity-ish thing to do.
    • Sounds right. Why take the time to say a "Le Chevalier" contacted them? The man seemed honest. When Moriarty does show up, this will be a call-back.
      • Jossed. Even though Moriarty has similarities with Le Chevalier (both are art thieves), it only works as Foreshadowing.

Sherlock's fascination with locks and such is because he got locked into a room when he was a child.
Several times.

Elementary is a Decon-Recon Switch Gender Flipped platonic take on the Manic Pixie Dream Girl trope.
  • The deconstruction = yes, Sherlock is quirky and interesting, and even brilliant, but none of these qualities equal "happy" or "functional" or "makes good life choices." The reconstruction = if you can handle the complications, relationships with eccentric, difficult people can be very rewarding, and give you something you wouldn't get in normal life. Episode 10 pointed out that, for all the exasperation involved, Joan's happier with Sherlock than she's been in a long time, and she's developing skills she'd never have had in her old life. (Of course, doctors have to be observant, but she wouldn't be solving murders and such.) So it's an examination of the question "without the gloss of romantic infatuation, and if you know all their faults up front, is letting a Manic Pixie Dream Person into your life still worth it?"

"M" from the episode of the same name will be Sebastian Moran, not Moriarty.
  • Vinnie Jones is playing M, and he appears to be a man of action, or at the very least a leg man. This isn't to say that Moriarty isn't active, but Sebastian Moran is always the man doing most of the leg work for the criminal network. And Vinnie Jones, while a talented actor, is more of a Moran type. If anything, there will be a reference to Moriarty, but not Moriarty himself.
    • The only other major villain named M in Holmes cannon is Charles Augustus Milverton, and his M.O. does not fit with this M. It is likely Moran.
    • Completely and utterly confirmed, to the last detail.

Sherlock will have a drug relapse in a season finale.
  • Genre Savvy viewers know it's coming sooner or later. It doesn't have to be the first season finale, it could be any of them (though it may very likely be the first, because it would make a lot less sense for Sherlock to relapse if he were, say, ten years sober.)
    • Potentially confirmed by the teaser for "The Woman". Although if he relapses or is drugged by Moriarty is still up in the air.
      • The episode plays with this plotline. Sherlock fakes a relapse as part of his and Watson's plan to trap Moriarty.

In contrast to Sherlock's Moriarty, Elementary's shall be decidedly less obsessed with Holmes.
  • The initial murder of Irene was a calculated move to throw Sherlock off his game and into drugs so he would stop investigating the murders. When Sherlock failed to be completely destroyed by the drugs (either through overdose or permanent addiction and fall into obscurity) and begins re-emerging in New York, Moriarty planned a pretty brilliant Xanatos Gambit that was upset just barely. By sending Moran into Sherlock's turf and ensuring their collision course, Moriarty hoped to have Holmes kill a loose end and get himself thrown into jail for murder if he didn't get killed by Moran himself. This only fails because Holmes is "not an average man," and neither is Moran. So instead, of actually eliminating his greatest foe, Moriarty has given Holmes his first real clue as to his existence. This suggests that instead of being a bored criminal consultant like Sherlock's Moriarty, this Moriarty is more of a business-like mastermind.
    • This would also explain the working arrangement between Moriarty and Moran. The people he had Moran kill probably stood in the way of Moriarty's criminal enterprise somehow.
      • Jossed. While the speculation of trying to throw Sherlock off his game is true, in this series Moriarty is Irene, and she loves Holmes in spite of herself. And just as Irene used Holmes' feelings against him, Watson realizes this and uses the same gambit to defeat her.

Sherlock's father will be named Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (or a variation).
  • We've covered just about every named recurring character in Sherlock's stories, why exclude the man who wrote them? Probably won't do the whole name though, Sir Arthur Holmes or something like that.
    • Cool suggestion, but the email from Mr. Holmes on Joan's iPhone was signed "M. Holmes"— perhaps his name is actually Mycroft?

Sherlock's father and brother are both named Mycroft.
  • This would be a way to explain the aforementioned email, while still allowing the Mycroft we all know and love to exist within the Elementary-verse— Sherlock's older brother would be Mycroft Holmes, Jr., their father's first and most favoured son.

Moriarty's MO
  • Going along with the above theory that Moriarty pretended to be Le Chevalier, it seems, just going off of the episode "M" that Moriarty's modus operandi is to use the identities of other criminals to carry out his actions. He had Moran cultivate the air of a serial killer, which he used on his own outside of Moran. Being the consulting criminal, he's mooching off other criminals, using them and setting them up for the fall while he stays clean.
    • Partially confirmed. Moriarty was not Le Chevalier, but worked as an assassin pimp and even had a guy to speak for her on meetings.

Holmes is a Manchester United fan
  • Why else would he consider Moran's being an Arsenal fan to be another reason to despise him?
    • Jonny Lee Miller is a Chelsea fan, and Chelsea has a rivalry with Arsenal that's just as strong. Sherlock could also be a Chelsea fan.

Holmes will figure out that Watson wasn't being paid by his father any more.
  • Holmes has a habit of using Watson's phone without her permission. He might come across the email and deduced that she lied about his father agreeing to extend her service.
  • Not to mention, he's probably been around her long enough to figure out her tells.
  • Confirmed.

Irene Adler is Moriarty.
  • Moran doesn't know anything about "Moriarity" except "his" name, so it is quite possible that "he" is a woman. When Holmes started getting to close too "Moriarity", she inserted herself into Holmes's life using the alias "Irene Adler" in order to learn more about him. For whatever reason, instead of killing Holmes she decided to destroy him by making him fall in love with him then faking her own death. Assuming they Never Found the Body, she could have easily faked her own death either by collecting her own blood over a long period of time or else murdering some other woman and planting that woman's D.N.A. in her own hairbrush, so that when the police got a sample to compare D.N.A. to the blood at the crime scene they would misidentify it.
    • Confirmed.

If there's a Three Garridebs "worth a wound" moment, it might be Holmes who gets shot.
  • Holmes is the one with the habit of going into isolated locations with dangerous people, and he's already been a Distressed Dude once. This version of Watson is a bit more Sugar and Ice and a bit less "Holmes, you're awesome!" than some incarnations of the character, so a Not So Stoic/"You really do care" moment from her would still mean something.

The Brownstone will be renovated in later episodes.
  • The Brownstone could represent the characters at the beginning; shoddy and incomplete. But, as time will pass, they might decide to start renovating maybe even getting a housekeeper as symbolism of them rebuilding themselves.
    • Which would be a perfect opportunity to introduce Mrs. Hudson into this continuity.
      • Mrs. Hudson has been introduced as of "Snow Angels," only she's Ms. Hudson now.

  • Both Moriarty and M. Holmes communicate with their employees solely through text messaging. M. Holmes is distant, yet manipulative, seemingly playing The Chessmaster. Plus, both characters are introduced in the episode "M". Most likely, "Moriarty" is the nom du crime he uses to interact with his criminal empire and his real name is Mycroft.
    • Jossed.

Alternatively, "M. Holmes" is straight Mycroft, still working for British Government
  • Which is how Sherlock knew his father wouldn't show up. Mycroft has been trying to 'Dry out' Sherlock, because he needs him.
    • Jossed, Elementary!Mycroft is a restauranteur.

Moriarty is a girl.
Why not? They gender-swapped Watson for this adaptation, why not do the same for Moriarty?
  • Confirmed. To whit: Irene Adler is Moriarty.

Kathryn Drummond is Moriarty.
  • Think of it. Drummond manipulated evidence in the Martin Ennis case so it would fit her profile of him. So what if she tries to do the same to Sherlock, just on a larger scale? In "The Deductionist", Drummond predicted Sherlock's self-destruction. So what if she tries to push him into that direction in order to make her predictions come true? And what better method would there be than to kill his beloved Irene Adler and send him on a drug and revenge trip? Also, Irene Adler, the woman Sherlock loved, already contradicts Drummond's claim that Sherlock is incapable of having authentic relationships with other people long before Joan Watson even appears on the stage. Definitely another motive for Drummond to kill her and let her disappear from the views as "just another" M victim.
    • Jossed.

Moriarty will cause Holmes to relapse.
It's only a matter of time before Moriarty shows himself/herself. The "final" battle will climax in the Reichenbach Falls style, but in this version Holmes won't die... at least not physically. The tragic death will be his sobriety. This way, there can still be a tragic loss without ending the series... or at least without some tedious excuse of how he comes back.
  • This was Played With in the Finale.

Dr. Candace Reed, Watson's therapist, is Irene Adler/Moriarty.
  • She's turned up in several episodes so far, her actress (Linda Emond) has been given And Starring billing in the individual episodes' guest starring credits, and we know next to nothing about her. Reed could very well be a Chekhov's Gunman, someone who'll turn out to be more important than she now seems. The most likely candidates remain Irene Adler, or Moriarty, or both if the Irene-is-Moriarty theory is true. She might be playing Watson's therapist so she can check up on Holmes. If she is Irene and not Moriarty, she could be doing this out of benevolent concern for her former lover. If she's Moriarty/both-Irene-and-Moriarty/Irene-as-a-guilty-crook-who's-not-Moriarty-but-still-evil, her intentions could be more malevolent.
    • And if none of those pan out, she could always be someone who works for Moriarty, with much of the malevolent possibilities still there.
      • Jossed. Reed is not Adler or Moriarty.

Since Captain Gregson is playing the Inspector Lestrade role in NYC, the actual Lestrade is still there in London and will eventually make an appearance.
It's also worth remembering that while literary!Holmes considered literary!Gregson to be the finest and most intelligent of the Scotland Yard Inspectors (an appraisal this Holmes seems to share of his own Gregson), he considered literary!Lestrade to be somewhat lazy and dull, content to allow Holmes to solve the crimes and then take credit, which Holmes was okay with. Given that characterization, Elementary!Lestrade will probably be sent over for some international case, come off as arrogant and boorish with how "he" solved so many of their old cases, then be humbled when he needs Holmes to straighten out his mess — again.
  • Confirmed. Lestrade is played by Sean Pertwee in season 2 and his role involves Scotland Yard.

Holmes will try to see if he's sexually attracted to Watson.
  • Holmes might want to see if he's in actual love with Watson by hiring a bunch of Asian prostitutes and see if they turn him on. He confessed that he does not see Watson attractive sexually.

Moriarty will drug Holmes.
  • Related to the above theory that Moriarty will force Sherlock to relapse. What if the two finally meet, and Moriarty gets the upper hand, drugging Holmes with cocaine/heroin/whatever other drugs Holmes used to take?
    • Jossed.

Watson's brother will end up with a drug problem
  • The original Watson did have a brother, who was only mentioned once - when Watson was going through his effects after he drank himself to death. Since the current Watson's brother is currently still alive, that means that Watson will be in a position to save him, and will possibly need Holmes to support her as this unfolds. Alternatively, the canonical Watson had a gambling addiction which Holmes helped Watson wean himself off of. That would be another interesting reversal of the addict/therapist relationship in this version.

Holmes is in the US illegally
Watson already deduced that Holmes has a fear of flying. He came over by stowing away or working cash-in-hand on a boat. When it becomes a problem, Holmes and Watson will get a Citizenship Marriage.
  • In the season 2 premiere Sherlock and Joan fly to London after Sherlock asks Joan if her passport is still valid; the implication is that he also has one. Semi-Jossed?

Sherlock has an illegitimate sibling, and this relates to his daddy issues.
There's a line in "M" where Sherlock mentions his father has no use for him/no need for him (sorry, I can't check the line right now) at that point in time. As Mycroft hasn't really been mentioned yet and Sherlock's absent father seems to have taken up the role Mycroft usually takes in adaptations - remember, in the books Mycroft was a corpulent lazy club goer, but also he "is" the British government, at least in "certain situations". As well as being a pretty distant father, daddy Holmes was a distant husband and had plenty of affairs. Rule of Drama applies, a child results who daddy Holmes perhaps supported, favoured or had use for, especially after Sherlock's addiction got out of control. It would be a neat reimagining of the Holmes sibling relationship, and reimagine this new Mycroft as someone on their way up through the governmental ranks as opposed to already being established.
  • Alternately, he could be the illegitimate child.
    • Where did Mycroft get his bone marrow transplant from, perhaps?

The thieves in "Snow Angels" were working for Moriarty
This was an exceptionally brilliant crime that even Holmes himself explicitly calls "brilliant". Even after the theives escape in a fake ambulance no one saw them leave in, they send a real ambulance to the home their accomplice had phoned to. Since Holmes was the only one who could deduce that the thieves left in an ambulance, it looks like this maneuver was done to throw off Holmes rather than the police. We don't hear of any of the crooks getting caught except for the woman and the corrupt FEMA agent. We just hear from Watson that they found the ambulance with the old money, not that they found the thieves. So, a crime so brilliant that even Holmes has to acknowledge it's brilliance, a clever ploy that seemed design to throw off a deduction only Holmes could make, and it sound like most of the crooks escaped. Sure sounds like a crime that it'd take a Moriarty to come up with.

Irene is not only Moriarty, but also using Sherlock to get rid of old employees
After faking, her death, Irene knows Sherlock is emotionally invested enough to ruthlessly hunt down her 'killer', and smart enough to track down the same people she did when hiring killers and other such criminals. Setting up such an elaborate crime empire would probably involve pruning old employees out when they get bothersome for some reason or another; why not use Sherlock to get rid of them for her?
  • Partially confirmed. She is Moriarty, but is just playing a game with Sherlock.

Irene faked her death as part of a deal with Moriarty to spare Holmes
  • Gottlieb revealed in "A Landmark Story" that Moriarty hired him to kill Holmes, but then abruptly called it off, the only time Moriarty ever did that with Gottlieb. Perhaps Irene figured out that Moriarty was targeting Holmes and made the deal with Moriarty.
    • Jossed.

Mycroft will be revealed to be morbidly obese.
He could still be able to control the British government but he would be housebound and be surrounded by servants and physicians.
  • Jossed. Rhys Ifans is thin as paper, though from comments made by Holmes, Mycroft had been obese before a serious illness caused him to lose a considerable amount of weight.

Sherlock made a fortune in the stock market when he was younger.
Holmes has come from a rich family. But, he might use a small amount of funds to invest in companies that he deduced will become huge.
  • In the season 2 premiere, we found out Mycroft invested in some restaurants and businesses; it stands to reason Sherlock would do something similar.

Moriarty's employing Irene as a forger.
  • She's still painting when Sherlock discovers she's alive, but is clearly slumming it in the house she's at. Moriarty made a deal with her to spare Sherlock's life in exchange for her permanent employment as a member of his organization. Being a Magnificent Bastard, Moriarty observed that her "death" would derail Sherlock anyway, and figuring that he could always play Holmes as a violin and make money off of Irene, Moriarty avoids Why Don't You Just Shoot Him? because of Money, Dear Boy.
    • Jossed.

Moriarty had nothing to do with Irene's "death."
  • Like the source material, she herself is a skilled criminal and will be the first person to outsmart Sherlock Holmes. She faked her own death for some reason and unknowingly got Holmes targeting Moriarty after Moriarty targeted Holmes. The reason Moriarty spared Holmes? The ability to continually sic Holmes on his employees if they fail him. No one said caution was a common virtue of the Diabolical Mastermind.
    • Jossed, since Moriarty and Irene are the same person.

Irene faked her death to save Godfrey Norton, not Sherlock.
  • Norton was being used as leverage against Irene for whatever reason - Sherlock was used by Moriarty later, although the hit was later called off. But now that Sherlock has discovered Irene is alive, Godfrey Norton has to die.
    • Jossed. Godfrey Norton has yet to appear in this series.

Moriarty's organization will be a major enemy in season 2
In the original stories, Holmes didn't move against Moriarty directly until he had the evidence he needed to take down the entire network, successfully bagging everyone except for Moriarty and Moran. In this version, Moriarty is in prison (For now, at least), Moran is dead or dying, but the network as a whole is still fairly intact beyond that. They could still operate, especially if Moriarty can get messages out from prison.

Someone else will take over Moriarty's organisation in season 2, and take on the name for themselves.
While the real Moriarty is in jail, their vast criminal resources are still intact, and without their leader, there may very well be a power vacuum for someone new to fill. This new mastermind will take on the name of "Moriarty", and while they'll initially be written off as no more than a copycat, their crimes will eventually escalate enough to get the attention of Sherlock and company. The original Moriarty (aka, Irene), while in prison, may be called upon to act in an advisory role to help catch the new one.

Moran will make a recovery in the Second Season
Not only that, he'll come gunning for Moriarty, leading into an Enemy Mine situation with Holmes.

"Irene Adler" wasn't an entirely false identity.
That is to say, it was her real name and she really did work as an art authenticator/restorer. That was her day job before she formed her criminal empire and started calling herself "Moriarty." The fact that Irene clearly had a high level of expertise on the subject of art suggests that the second part is true, while the national recognition of her as an art restorer and the fact she had a list of references and credentials that stood up to the intense level of scrutiny Holmes almost certainly employed in investigating her before going to meet her, speaks to the first part. "Irene Adler, art restorer" could very well have been Moriarty's genuine name and occupation. They do say that the best lies always contain a little bit of truth...
  • Seems like it's Jossed as of "We Are Everyone," at least as far as the part about Irene Adler being Moriarty's real name is concerned. In the letter she sends to Sherlock at the end of the episode, it's signed, "Jamie Moriarty."

There will be a Mary Morstan in the show.
Technically the male version of Mary Morstan, Ty Morstan, was introduced in the second episode of the first season, but then he'll have a sister, Mary, who will eventually become a client of Sherlock and Watson, and then Sherlock will develop a thing for her.

Moriarty won't be in prison for long.
Someone that ruthless, with a vast-reaching criminal empire at their disposal, is bound to have a judge or two on the payroll. Moriarty will be out soon enough.
  • It's confirmed that Moriarty will return in Season 2. As for the details, we shall see...
  • Sort of Confirmed. Moriarty has managed to become a counterintelligence asset. Technically still in prison, but the knowledge and connections she possesses are so valuable that she's been able to trade them for such quality living conditions that she Might as Well Not Be in Prison at All. She hasn't tried to escape because she intends to trade for her freedom later on, and because life as a fugitive has very little appeal to her.

Moriarty got the huge amount of blood needed to fake Irene's death...
...using the same method from "Possibility Two."

When Sherlock was on heroin...
  • ...he had the illusion he was an American lawyer called Eli Stone and has musical visions from God.

Sherlock will use carrier pigeons and keep them next to his bees.
  • Sherlock became interested in the carrier pigeons after "Step Nine" and realize that carrier pigeons are harder to track than cell phones and harder to hack. So, he will try to create a fleet of pigeons.

At the end of "Step Nine", Mycroft didn't really blow up Sherlock's possessions.
  • After all, there were a lot of valuable items in there, including an original Picasso. The whole incident was just for show, and Mycroft held on to most (if not all) of Sherlock's things.

The person that Mycroft is revealed to be working with at the end of "Blood Is Thicker" is Moriarty.
  • Admittedly, this is the most obvious possibility, so it just might be a new villain.

Mycroft tried to persuade Sherlock to return to London to act as an agent of the British government.
  • This would tie back in to the mythology of Sherlock being an occasional agent of the Crown and Mycroft himself being an important covert asset of the British government.

Moriarty will become obsessed with Joan
We all know Moriarty is obsessed with Sherlock, and after Joan's little gambit actually worked, I smell a new obsession brewing (that painting makes for quite good evidence of that). She'll also make a (possibly genuine, possibly faked, possibly revolving) attempt at a Heel-Face Turn, and then Moriarty will turn out to be a Depraved Bisexual who makes Joan question her sexuality, ala H.G. Wells and Myka from Warehouse13 (which makes it a case of Poison Oak Epileptic Trees for me, but I know there's a good segment of the population who'd love it). Bonus points for the writers reneging on their promise of a platonic Sherlock/Watson relationship and throwing a love triangle into the mess.

Moriarty is a Legacy Character
Moriarty mentions having a mentor. There's in fact a long line of Moriarties (Moriartii?) dating back to the Victorian Era.
Eerie IndianaWMG/Live-Action TVEli Stone

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