Pandemics and Epidemiology (COVID-19, monkeypox, etc.)

Got my and my wife's appts set. All it took was watching Walgreens' website and occasionally mashing refresh like a madman.

Kinda like PS 5 shopping, really.

Got my first shot. Next one's May 3rd.

Got my second shot. Between it and my surgery (which went really well except for the part where I can’t clean and change the dressing on my own because it is on my butt), I’m probably going to feel like shit for a couple of days.

Incidentally I cataloged the times it took for both shots. First vaccine took an hour with me doing a half hour wait time post shot. Second vaccine took two hours with barely 15 minute wait time. If nothing else, I can confirm that NY is really ramping up vaccine distribution to the populace.

It’s too late for vaccines to save Michigan, CDC director explains: Vaccines take weeks to work; distancing and other health measures work immediately.

Well, I guess Michigan is... doomed, then? What an oddly fatalistic headline.

Depends on how you define "save", I guess.

Not doomed, just have to lock down hard and will have a bad time of it for the next month or so even if lockdown is implemented immediately.

Canada’s in the same position. Ontario opened up way too fast after the January lockdown, opening even restaurants and gyms while cases and hospitalizations were still high. We’re paying for it now. In one major respect we’re worse off than Michigan: even in normal times our hospital system has no slack, so we’re likely to run out of beds and ICU space soon.

The brighter note is that so far, despite record numbers of people in hospitals and ICUs, deaths have been fairly stable - having already vaccinated the very elderly, who were most vulnerable, made a real difference. (Or, more pessimistically, we’ll see the death toll climbing in the coming weeks.)

It’s going to be bad, and it was completely avoidable.

Edited by Galadriel on Apr 12th 2021 at 7:37:47 AM

And of course people in those areas are gonna keep denying that anything is even happening or it's everything else's fault but their own.

This one’s on the government more than the public. People respond to signals - if you open indoor dining and gyms, they’re going to go to them, and they’re going to think it makes no sense to refrain from seeing their families when you can go out for dinner and be surrounded (at a two-meter distance) by strangers.

Also, large parts of the pandemic are from COVID spreading in the schools, and from grocery store workers catching it and going to work anyway (because they need the money or fear being fired) and spreading it. Of catching it on crowded buses because transit has been cut back. All of that is on the government, not the public. If you require businesses to offer paid sick days (and offer some subsidies to small businesses that are already on the ropes), then people who are sick stay home and you don’t have that spread.

It doesn’t all have to be about “lockdowns and calling the public irresponsible” on one side vs “open up ignore the virus” on the other. There are real things you can do, like paid sick days, and buses that allow enough space for social distancing, to empower people to protect themselves. The governments have had more than enough time to do them. They haven’t. Those things wouldn’t eliminate the need for restrictions, but they’d get rid of some major sources of infection.

Edited by Galadriel on Apr 12th 2021 at 8:15:12 AM

Though the state of local restaurants here shows that it's not all the government. Current restrictions allow indoor dining (with social distancing between tables and masks while not eating), but the majority of restaurants are takeout only, and some have a no-contact pickup setup.

I think Covid fatigue has become a very big thing and probably causing some of what's going on in Michigan.

Michigan was the state that had armed protests after just a few weeks and a conspiracy to kidnap and murder the governor just for having any kind of restrictions.

Doing anything other than throwing the doors wide open and saying to hell with it was going to meet heavy, hostile resistance.

I got the J&J vaccine about an hour and a half ago.

Heard from old man that since Sinovac's in Manila, may as well take it. Then maybe take another shot later on after a few months like Moderna or Astra.

Also heard from him that you may need Sinovac injected prior to going to HK.

This is way getting political, considering my dad has a personal bank account there.

Edited by Ominae on Apr 13th 2021 at 12:13:36 PM

The FDA halts the use of the J&J vaccine because there are rare blood clots.

I was wondering, when do side effects warrant stopping vaccination? I don't have any numbers right now, but they don't seem statically significant.

It’s looking like this is a viral vector issue, which means it will probably also crop up with the Russian vaccine once we can look over data on it.

Honestly, in this case I don't think the numbers justify it in any sense - blood clots have been reported in literally less than one in a million people to have taken the vaccine (6 out of 6.8 million, from the article I read). This seems more like a PR-based decision, though I admit I think that's more of a justification with vaccines than it is in some other cases.

Got my own first dose of the Moderna vaccine today, BTW. Only noticeable side-effect was some soreness around the exact spot.

Edited by nrjxll on Apr 13th 2021 at 7:02:34 AM

Personally, I don't think the side effects are widespread enough to warrant a halt but then I have been complaining about this weird approach to side effects for a while. According to the Twitter chain, we are talking about an incidence of less than one in a million.

The UK a has had 30 blood clot cases with 18 million Astra Zenica vaccines administered, and our reaction has been to limit the vaccine use to the demographics less at risk from blood clot and more at risk from COVID.

If J&J has even less risk then Astra Zenica it does seem odd to pause it. My understanding is that birth control pills carry a higher risk of blood clots.

Edited by Silasw on Apr 13th 2021 at 1:13:51 PM

I was supposed to get a dose of the J&J vaccine next week, will I still be able to get it now?

Reminds me of my folks telling me not to get Astra if it's available due to blood clot issues.

As always the answer to medical questions is for you to speak to your doctor or another relevant medical practitioner.

According to some sources the FDA is only recommending halting of the vaccine while others have said they've already halted it.

It's all very confusing at the moment, admittedly.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/philippines-duterte-waive-chance-covid-19-vaccine-14613288

I want to leave the Philippines when I can after this pandemic is under control... Good thing I'm a dual national. Goddamn it. Duterte is as usual not inspiring confidence.

Doesn't help that I'm told to get Sinovac for pragmatic/practical reasons as China donated a lot and Astra has blood clot issues. Moderna's by next month, but it can go the way of Pfizer.

0.3 to 1% chance over ten years from my, admittedly cursory, glance at Google.