Box Office Thread

Ooops...I must have misread the numbers…

In any case, Mamma Mia 2 is one of the movies I predicted to be under the ten highest grosser of the year. So hopefully it will continue to do well.

I predict it will gross at least $400 million.

Current estimates actually put The Equalizer 2 as #1 for the weekend.

Looks like Mamma Mia didn't do quite as well as expected….but who knows, maybe they are underreporting.

Even if the estimates are accurate, it’ll probably have better legs than The Equalizer 2.

Especially when we have Fallout coming next week. Equalizer 2 will be having a hard time.

Edited by 123tbones on Jul 22nd 2018 at 2:46:41 AM

Well, in the end Equalizer won the weekend, but Mamma Mia had the better average per theatre and it looks like it will have better legs. It also has already taken in its budget, though we naturally know that it has to double the budget to be considered a financial success. But it will.

In other news Ant-man and the Wasp has lost a little bit of its steam, but overall, it has already passed The Incredible Hulk and is now nearing the box office result of the first one, so it can be considered a win.

I wonder if the heat wave will help or hinder those movies in the European box office...usually the summer is a terrible time to release a movie in Europe because nobody wants to spend the few sunny days we get in a closed room, but theatres are climatized while most homes are not. On the flip side, people might avoid leaving their homes at all to escape the heat….

Edited by Swanpride on Jul 26th 2018 at 6:17:56 AM

Btw, The Incredibles 2 is about to move past the one billion mark (despite not even having been released in all markets). Meaning, it will for sure pass it, making it already the fourth movie this year which makes it past this more and more easy to jump mark, three of which have been released by Disney.

AATW still has other markets that will make it a win.

It already is a win. It has beaten the first one domestically, and is pretty close internationally, too. It actually doesn't need to do more than having an upward traction to be considered a success.

Also Solo got knocked out of the top 10 worldwide. Already I’m at two misses from my predictions for top 10 worldwide along with Dark Phoenix (darn delays).

Well, I have been right so far...now Mamma Mia 2 has to make it in the top 10 and I still have a perfect track record. (Though I also bet on The Nutcracker as a Darkhorse candidate, so I will most likely don't get a clean slate).

So Mission Impossible: Fallout is a critical and box-office smash already. Can't say I'm too surprised (the MI films really have been trending upward in both quality and reception) but it's still Hilarious in Hindsight to me because of this thread and someone predicted that fatigue would lead to the movie bombing.

That was me, though I didn't predict the movie would bomb, I said I wasn't so sure if the interest on the MI is still that high. But it looks like the fanbase is more or less stable (I know it looks like the movie is an uptick in success, but this is mostly the result of inflation, in terms of how many people went to see it, the franchise is still within the usual numbers).

Something I noticed.

Since 2013, on average there are three films that gross past $1 billion every year. Power of inflation does that, I guess. 2014 was the only year after that to have just one $1 billion dollar film.

The billion line isn't quite as special anymore as it used to be...the 2 billion line now where it is. But we even had a movie which passed this particular line twice in the last years.

Black Panther has now passed $700 million domestic.

Incredibles 2 is currently the 4th-highest grossing animated movie globally (after Frozen, Minions, and Toy Story 3), and may pass Toy Story 3 by the end of its run. Domestically, it's the sixth-highest animated movie in inflation-adjusted terms (and among recent animated films, only The Lion King and Shrek 2 are higher).

Between those two movies and Infinity War, it's pretty much a given that the 3 highest domestic grosses of 2018 will be superhero movies.

And that Disney will make a killer year. So far only Wrinkle in time can be seen as a disappointment.

The Incredibles 2 still hasn't opened in all markets yet...I should know, I think mine is pretty much at the bottom of the release list.

Solo as well as Wrinkle in Time, but I agree that Disney is having a fantastic year, especially when you add in their acquisition of Fox. I find the level of market power they've accumulated quite troubling - between Star Wars, the MCU, Pixar, Disney Animation, and now X-Men, they control almost every major franchise and about half the box office, while no other studio has more than about 15%.

Box office is fickle. IE if the MCU had failed and Warner Bros would have continued to have success with their kind of Superhero movies, we would have a very different conversation today. And I can list you a number of franchises not owned by Disney from Harry Potter to Lord of the Rings, most of them just aren't currently on a high.

Yes, Disney has all the largest and most successful ongoing franchises.

Things could have gone differently, but they didn't. If Warner Brothers controlled 50% of the box office, instead of Disney doing so, I'd be equally concerned.

Edited by Galadriel on Aug 6th 2018 at 9:04:11 AM

Why? The decision which franchise is the "biggest" is still solely with the audience. And, as Solo just showed, no franchise is fool proof. This is not some sort of unshakable monopoly, it is just a phase. In a decade, who knows what will be the next shiny thing people will like.

Regardless of how profitable an individual movie or year is, one company controlling such vast market share is concerning. Because that’s one company deciding what almost half the movies are that will come out.

It’s still less concerning than WB & Universal being owned by telecommunications giants.

“It could be a worse monopoly” does make the current monopoly therefore good.