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Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital- over 100,000 by some counts

Ukrainian protesters besiege government building

Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU

Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."

What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.

The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.


EDIT (2/24/2022)

This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.

Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.

The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.

While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."

This map will help track the latest developments.

Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.

No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.

Edited by Tabs on Mar 20th 2022 at 4:26:26 AM

ArcticDog18 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Jan 23rd 2023 at 9:04:02 AM

Exactly. Other countries also have aging populations, but Russia sends young men who could still have children to die or get crippled in the war no one wanted or needed (beside those bloodthirsty nationalist and those who are too deep into Putinism). Really, if that continues, Russia will be facing a really rough time in the future.

[EDIT]: Oh, page topper. Whoops.

Edited by ArcticDog18 on Jan 23rd 2023 at 6:23:52 PM

I will become a great writer one day! Hopefully...
jdeo1997 BLADE Pathfinders from Orion–Cygnus Arm Relationship Status: I won't say I'm in love
BLADE Pathfinders
Jan 23rd 2023 at 9:39:00 AM

[up][up]Well, jo child labor and also children actually kiving to adulthood

Silence is golden, noise is platinum. Keelah se'lai
Jan 23rd 2023 at 10:41:20 AM

[up][up] The worse part is that ever since WW 1, Russia has been getting into a major war every 20-30 years. You can see that dip in the demographic chart echoing every few decades.

AngelusNox Burn it down from somewhere in the night Relationship Status: Not war
Burn it down
Jan 23rd 2023 at 12:19:58 PM

[up]The difference is also that Russia doesn't have anyone willing to migrate to its territory, has a major flight of younger people and talent to other countries and is such horrible shithole that life expectancy and fertility are down in the shitter.

Either it could have high fertility rates, high life expectancy or good immigration rates. Currently it has none of those things.

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Lyendith I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane! from Bègles, France Relationship Status: Buried in snow, waiting for spring
I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane!
Jan 23rd 2023 at 12:32:00 PM

Speaking of flight, do we know if there are a lot of Russians who’ve fled conscription?

Guarding Russia’s ten-lightyears long border to stop them must be quite hard…

Edited by Lyendith on Jan 23rd 2023 at 9:34:27 PM

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megarockman Less than 1 in a billion from The Sixth Borough
Less than 1 in a billion
Jan 23rd 2023 at 12:45:09 PM

They generally don't need to guard the entire length of the border for those reasons, especially in remote areas of Siberia where border crossings are fewer and farther in between.

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uncertanSearcher ♪ whistling ♪ from Germany Relationship Status: -not set
♪ whistling ♪
Jan 23rd 2023 at 2:19:02 PM

What are all the Russians that fled the country in the wake of the war doing now anyway? I just noticed that I have seen literary nothing reported about them throughout all this.

Reflextion The Infiltrator from 2017 (Ultimate) Relationship Status: What's love got to do with it?
The Infiltrator
Jan 23rd 2023 at 2:25:42 PM The biggest lie that our elders tell us is "We want to leave behind a better world for you".
Resileafs I actually wanted to be Resileaf
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
Jan 24th 2023 at 6:35:52 AM

According to a CBC article (in french, I don't know if there's an english version), a good number of exiles have went to Dubai, as it's one of the few places where Russian people are not persona non grata after the invasion started.

Lyendith I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane! from Bègles, France Relationship Status: Buried in snow, waiting for spring
I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane!
Jan 24th 2023 at 8:30:25 AM

Which I don’t really get… Sanctioning Russia’s government or economy is one thing, but why sanction even Russian people who want to leave and deny them a way out? They didn’t ask for this war any more than Ukrainians did…

Flippé de participer à ce grand souper, je veux juste m'occuper de taper mon propre tempo.
Risa123 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Jan 24th 2023 at 8:53:24 AM

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

  • Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW's standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months.
  • The Wagner Group's outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner's combat capability.
  • Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours.
  • Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast despite one Russian occupation official's continued claims. The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut.
  • The Kremlin's efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems and crack down on partisan dissent in occupied areas.

Parable State of Mind from California Relationship Status: Holding out for a hero
State of Mind
Jan 24th 2023 at 8:59:48 AM

But if it speeds up the process of getting Germany onboard, is there any downside to sending like a dozen or so Abrams from the US over to Ukraine?

No, I'm sure Ukraine could find a use for them. The real problem is that we could send a bunch of tanks over there, only to have Germany find another excuse to avoid doing so.

Depends on the threshold of action that Scholz considers enough for him to approve the Leo 2 transfers. If it's enough for the US to fish out a dozen or so non-operational Abrams from a boneyard and ship them to Ukraine as a token gesture, without really worrying about crew/maintainer training and long-term support, then it could be done pretty quickly with little downsides.

Hopping back to this conversation since we've gotten an update:

Biden administration strongly leaning towards sending over a number of Abrams tanks as part of a deal with Germany to send Leopards and approve other countries to do so.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

"What a century this week has been." - Seung Min Kim
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amitakartok Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
Jan 24th 2023 at 9:47:57 AM

Which I don’t really get… Sanctioning Russia’s government or economy is one thing, but why sanction even Russian people who want to leave and deny them a way out? They didn’t ask for this war any more than Ukrainians did…

Collective guilt. I've seen it applied to Hungary and Poland before too.

Gist of it is that if your country's leadership is doing shitty things, you and all your countrymen are responsible for having elected them into power in the first place regardless of whether you yourself actually voted for them or not since even if you didn't, you still didn't depose them either when their shittyness became apparent and inaction equals implicit support. Or something.

That and making exceptions would inevitably result in rules-lawyering over who counts and who doesn't, so it's better to just shun them all and let God sort them out.

(Disclaimer: I do not support public ostracism in any form. I'm just calling what other people do as I see it.)

Edited by amitakartok on Jan 24th 2023 at 6:50:58 PM

Parable State of Mind from California Relationship Status: Holding out for a hero
State of Mind
Jan 24th 2023 at 10:21:28 AM

US considering 30-50 Abrams tanks for Ukraine. An official announcement is expected later this week.

I also saw something about Germany agreeing to send a company of Leopards now, but the source was in Germany, so I can't be sure though.

"What a century this week has been." - Seung Min Kim
Jan 24th 2023 at 10:32:26 AM

[up][up] What disgusts me is that many of the people who were going out of their way to criticize Russians for not protesting enough were crying revolution immediately when the first news about the anti-COVID restriction protests in China appeared. The fact that the protesters were a much smaller minority in China than their peers in Russia or that only a few (if any) non-Uyghurs protested against the genocide “somehow” eluded them…

Edited by LordforlornII on Jan 24th 2023 at 10:34:22 AM

Jan 24th 2023 at 11:18:39 AM

[up][up]The BBC is reporting it now, citing Spiegel and dpa.

The only statements I could find are from Strack-Zimmermann, chairwoman of the Defence Committee, who called the decision to commit tanks "tough, extremely overdue and ultimately inevitable".

Edited by Farnion on Jan 24th 2023 at 11:27:18 AM

ArcticDog18 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Jan 24th 2023 at 1:07:28 PM

That bit about Wagner’s Group in today’s ISW report. I remember reading today that according to some sources, out of 50k prisoners recruited to this mercenary group, only 10k serve, as the rest were either killed, captured by Ukrainians or fled.

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miraculous We'll show them. We'll show them all. from South Africa
We'll show them. We'll show them all.
Jan 24th 2023 at 1:08:12 PM

Alright, this is great. The new Russian offensive they have planned for the spring needs to be annihilated.

We won't get any negotiations unless that fails. And fails miserably. So the more the better.

Edit: [up]Uh tbf I doubt Wagner or the Kremlin care. Having the prisoners killed must be a net benefit as it decreases the prison population.

Edited by miraculous on Jan 24th 2023 at 1:10:21 AM

Real power doesn't come to those who were born strongest, or fastest, or smartest. No. It comes to those who will do anything to achieve it.
ArcticDog18 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Jan 24th 2023 at 1:44:58 PM

I just started to wonder when they will run out of troops for Wagner. I think I recall how Prigozhin had to lower the standards of recruitment to his mercenary band. And, the other question - how can we be sure they have any competent prisoners left in their ranks? Not ex-military, but some random thugs that look bad even when compared to mobiks.

I will become a great writer one day! Hopefully...
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from a handcart heading to Hell Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
Jan 24th 2023 at 3:17:11 PM

On the subject of Russians fleeing the draft. It’s hard to distinguish someone who is genuinely anti-war from someone who is pro-war but wants other people to do the dying, I see no reason to help the later group.

There’s also the security considerations right now. The last thing we need is someone claiming to be a Russian draft-dodger getting let into Poland and then phoning back home every time an arms shipment crosses the border.

Edited by Silasw on Jan 24th 2023 at 11:17:23 AM

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran
Jan 24th 2023 at 3:21:47 PM

The reason to accept the latter group into non-Russian countries is that it decreases Russia’s pool of conscripts, even if their motives for draft dodging are self-serving.

The security concerns are a harder question.

Edited by Galadriel on Jan 24th 2023 at 3:22:17 AM

Protagonist506 from Oregon Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Jan 24th 2023 at 3:26:49 PM

Personal opinion, people fleeing Russia should generally be given the benefit of the doubt, and accepting such people should be considered an effort to oppose Putin.

My principal break with the GOP actually was over refugees with ISIS, a vaguely similar situation.

Edited by Protagonist506 on Jan 24th 2023 at 3:27:33 AM

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raziel365 Anka Aquila from The Far West Relationship Status: I've been dreaming of True Love's Kiss
Anka Aquila
Jan 24th 2023 at 3:47:27 PM

[up][up]

It also doesn't help when the Russians who were already in other countries start to bang their support of Putin. I still remember that Germany had an issue with a protest of those folks last year.

Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, maybe we should try to find the absolutes that tie us.
Lyendith I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane! from Bègles, France Relationship Status: Buried in snow, waiting for spring
I'm not insane, I'm not… not insane!
Jan 24th 2023 at 4:17:09 PM

There’s also the security considerations right now. The last thing we need is someone claiming to be a Russian draft-dodger getting let into Poland and then phoning back home every time an arms shipment crosses the border.

Not sure the Russian intelligence and army rely on random civilians for that though.

Flippé de participer à ce grand souper, je veux juste m'occuper de taper mon propre tempo.

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