South Caucasus thread

No way that NATO would agree to play to Ankara's whims, if anything I'm afraid that escalation makes Turkey decide to throw caution to the wind and start picking fights with Greece.

Keep in mind that we have no documentary evidence of the supposed downing yet.

What do Georgia and Iran think about this shit?

Isn't Iran traditionally a firm ally of Armenia?

Yes, but last I checked they had screwed up the COVID response so badly that you could see by satellite mass grave fires.

There are actually more ethnic Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan itself. Even Khamenei is one. The territories of modern-day Azerbaijan used to be part of Iran back when it was ruled by successive Turkic dynasties (Safavid, then Afsharid, then Qajar) up until it was ceded to Russia in the 19th century. Nowadays you have Azeri ethnonationalists who want a union between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Iranian bits, as well as the odd Persian irredentists who want the northwestern corner of the empire back, so things are kind of messy diplomacy-wise.

FWIW, from Tsarist times up to the fall of the USSR, Azeris were traditionally seen as "the good Muslims" in Russia, versus the wild nomadic Central Asians and bandit rebel Chechens (though maybe less than the Russified Kazan/Volga Tatar elites).

Armenia says ready to engage with OSCE to re-establish Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire.

Weren't the Safavids a Kurdish dynasty?

Armenian PM says Turkey taking new genocidal path

Dear God.

We really screwed up when we failed to prosecute Turkey for its genocidal acts in the last century as well as its track record of genocide denialism.

Edited by raziel365 on Oct 2nd 2020 at 9:12:47 AM

Defense forums have found pics of the crashed fighter. Now what caused it is still up for debate. Azeris claim the Armenians flew into the side of a mountain.

Also, it should be noted, both sides have rejected peace offerings, with Baku in particular stating that nothing short of Yerevan's unconditional surrender of Nagorno Karabakh will bring peace.

Forget about oil, demanding "unconditional surrender" is like pouring rocket fuel to a fire.

I imagine Yerevan's counter offer will be to recognize the NKR/Artsakh. Then it technically becomes Stepanakert's problem with Yerevan just doing heavy lifting.

Not sure how many would buy that though...

This really sucks, it doesn't?

They were culturally Turkicised and spoke an early form of Azeri.

I mean, it did get occupied by the Entente in the aftermath of WWI. Then Atatürk and co. kicked them out and deposed the Ottoman royalists... in a war that killed a lot more Armenian civilians and ethnically cleansed them from huge swathes from their historical homelands, effectively continuing the genocide. Plus there weren't any international bodies capable of doing so at the time.

As for Pashinyan's remark, I think it bears noting that it's a rhetoric made by a head of state seeking out foreign support in a major war and not necessarily a reflection of actual Turkish policies. Think of it as, ah, the war crime discourse between South Korea and Japan on steroids. Did one side historically carry out massive atrocities on the other? Yes. Does that side still have a rabid nationalist wing that denies said crimes to this day? Also yes. Does the modern country still discriminate against and intimidate members of the oppressed group in its population? Yes - Armenian communities in Istanbul have been harassed by Turkish nationalist gangs since the war started, plus there's the whole conflict in Turkish Kurdistan that's leagues worse than anything Japan is doing to its Zainichi Koreans.

But does that mean that Turkey is gunning for a second Armenian genocide, specifically? ...Eh. I wouldn't be surprised if the thought crossed Turkish leaders' heads more than a few times, and it's commonly accepted that an Azerbaijani reconquest of Artsakh would inevitably lead to massive atrocities against the local ethnic Armenian population. It'd be one more nasty stage in a war that's already marked by massacres and ethnic cleansing on both sides. But it's also worth taking a look at the context and what his remark was supposed to convey - especially to Putin, who's probably not 100% happy with the state of Armenian politics and wants Pashinyan to fall in line before he's willing to intervene.

Considering how Erdogan jumps at any opportunity to massacre the Kurds, I don't see how his attitude towards Armenia would be different.

Makes me wonder if the Kurds send people to assist Armenia....

Maybe they will, if only because the Kurds are aware of Turkey's playbook and know that it won't stop just with the Armenians.

Greece and Syria are probably making preparations as well, if Erdogan goes full Neo-Ottoman they are surely next on the list.

Greece in particular, backed by France, have been spiraling downwards with their relations, so they've already started doing so.

So...this is it, huh?

I can't say this was unexpected, on the contrary this was a ticking bomb that was kept frozen during the Cold War if you know about the region's history.

Still, I never thought that this would really happen.

Well, maybe. It might not get that far. If Turkey attempts an invasion, that's asking for a Russian intervention. Heck, you might get Greece and France in as well.

For that matter, Erdogan might back down and Armenia might win. And then, well, the status quo continues.

Edited by AzurePaladin on Oct 3rd 2020 at 1:02:06 PM

I think it would be a matter of "when" rather than "if" on Turkey's side, Erdogan does seem the type to use war as a way to rally support.

Still, let's hope for the best.

Edited by raziel365 on Oct 3rd 2020 at 10:10:41 AM

We have a Turkish Politics thread, btw.

Yeah, but this is about Turkey as it relates to the Armenia/Azerbaijan debacle.

Mm-hmm. Just want to make sure the speculations re:Turkey's strategic intent don't end up overshadowing the stuff actually happening on the ground.

Russian reporters cover the Azerbaijani shelling of settlements in Artsakh.