Electric Vehicles (Cars, Planes, and Ships)

It's perfectly fine not to like Tesla's aesthetics. However, if price and formfactor are the concerns, then we do know that a less expensive model will be produced in China and then expand to the rest of the world, with a target price of 25,000 USD. We don't yet know what it will be called or what it will look like.

As devak hinted at, the major barrier to mass-producing those types of budget BEVs is simply the supply of batteries. Tesla is one of the only automakers directly working to expand that supply rather than relying on third parties to make the magic happen.

Other manufacturers are dealing not just with the investment into electrification but also the enormous stranded costs of their existing ICE manufacturing capacity. In many cases those capital expenses aren't fully amortized, so they stand to take huge losses.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 10th 2021 at 6:59:34 AM

[accidental double-post]

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 10th 2021 at 6:59:27 AM

That leads to another issue I have with the industry I have at the moment. I know why they're doing it, focusing on the issue of range but hoestly at the end of the day most cars are driven as part of a commute. As long as you have enough range to do two days worth (in case you forget to set the charger one night) you don't need that much range on a day to day basis.

At least if you're living in an urban/suburban environment. And in that sort of environment that's also where EVs have the greatest savings over ICEs.

Edited by KnightofLsama on Feb 11th 2021 at 7:26:04 PM

I mean sure, but i lost count of the amount of "if i can't drive across the country on a whim, i'm not buying it" arguments against that.

Range matters to a lot of people because they're used to not caring about range, and they're afraid they'll have to be stuck at a charger for hours. Despite the fact that in most cases this isn't an issue and the remainder can be fixed in other ways.

Range is the single most prevalent consumer concern about EVs.

Edit: I meant to type "concern", not "complaint", because most people who get an EV are cured of range anxiety fairly quickly. There's a huge hump to get over to convince people to initially adopt the technology.

By the way, the Biden administration is reportedly looking to extend the federal EV tax credit so that it applies to automakers who've sold more than 200,000 electric vehicles. If that goes through, both Tesla and GM could once again benefit from the $7,500 incentive. Add to that a renewal of the Obama-era "cash for clunkers" program and most consumers could see credits of over $10K for an EV purchase.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 11th 2021 at 8:15:04 AM

Most trips are driven as part of a commute, but when I was a kid all our family vacations were road trips. Even if you only drive long distances during a few weeks per year, you’re still not going to want to shell out a ton of money - more than for a normal sedan - for a car that isn’t able to do that conveniently.

Something I have been wondering about: How far is technology for battery-powered trains?

Currently train engines are usually powered by diesel (which is polluting) or line power (which requires overhead lines that are challenging from an engineering perspective). I know that back in 2012 there were discussions in Germany about making "e-tenders" - tenders that host batteries - to allow electrical trains to run on lines without overhead lines. Such a technology may also work to introduce electrical trains to railways w/o overhead lines.

How much stored energy would that even need? I think even the smaller line EMUs have a peak output of ~250kW, though how much of that is in use and regenerative braking makes it all sorts of more confusing. Though presumably you'd also need quite a few spare tenders because swapping them out would be the only way to go...

Fast-charging infrastructure is rapidly improving, so most stops for charging should be under 30 minutes. There is a distinct difference to the "EV lifestyle" while driving long distances. Rather than stop, put gas in the car, and go, you take breaks. A half hour is good for stretching your legs, grabbing a bite to eat, doing some convenience shopping... resetting your mental well being, as it were.

Given a hypothetical EV range of 300 miles, drop it to 240 to accommodate partial charging (going up to 100% is bad for battery life and takes a lot longer than charging to 80%) and loss of efficiency from drag at highway speeds, maintain an average speed of 70 mph and you are stopping every three to four hours. That's about as much time as I would like to spend in a car before taking a break. It's a more relaxed approach.

Ironically, as chargers get even faster — we're seeing deployments of 350 kW and higher — times are reduced enough that you may not be able to stop for a full meal without incurring penalty fees for occupying a stall. The lifestyle is constantly shifting with the technology.

When you get to your destination, you will obviously want to plug in. An increasing number of hotels are offering destination chargers: level 2 (240 V) chargers that can add 10-20 miles of range per hour. You leave the car plugged in for a few hours and you have enough range to get around the city or whatever. Leave it overnight and you're ready to hit the road for the next leg of the trip.

Only insane people (or transportation workers) want to physically be on the road for more than 8-10 hours in a single day, so we can do some napkin math. A Tesla Model 3 LR+ gets 353 miles estimated EPA range. Chop that down to 260 as a practical limit to allow for efficiency losses and charging from 10 to 90 percent. Let's say that takes 30 minutes.

Now take a gas car with 400 miles of highway range. Same speed, same route, but you stop at gas stations rather than superchargers. Let's assume we're topped off at the start of our trip, and we have to make a 600 mile one way journey. Our average speed is 60 mph. (Yes, I know everyone likes to drive 80; this is a hypothetical apples-to-apples).

In the gas car, you make one stop on the way: call it 5 minutes, plus 10 minutes of off-highway navigation. You complete the trip in 10 hours and 15 minutes and have 200 miles of range left. In the EV, you make two stops: each 30 for charging and 10 for navigation. You complete the trip in 11 hours and 20 minutes and have 200 miles of range left.

You're at your destination. The EV tops off at the hotel, while the gas car is at <200 miles. Driving time at the destination is an unknown but I assume at least a little will be done. When you head home, you have to stop for gas twice this time, adding 30 minutes to your trip. The EV has to charge twice again, adding 80 minutes. Time to return home: 10 hours 30 minutes vs. 11 hours 20 minutes.

Having an EV made your total travel time about 10 percent longer. You got to take more breaks and you spent less money on fuel. This also doesn't count reduced maintenance due to fewer mechanical parts to accumulate wear and tear. Seems fine to me.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 11th 2021 at 2:29:04 PM

If i recall correctly it's also not advised to sit behind the wheel continuously for more than two hours since you need to constantly pay attention.

Well, driver assist and self-driving tech will change that too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, or off topic.

Considering how big of an issue self-driving cars keep being, i doubt we'll have to worry about that anytime soon. And even with drive assists you still have to keep paying attention.

Reports are that they reduce stress and allow drivers to be focused for longer periods of time.

There are ways around the problem, mostly by giving the "driver" something to do (other than driving) that nevertheless requires this person to pay attention to the road and the vehicle's behavior. The one that comes to mind is real-time assessment of the vehicle's performance—this would not only keep the human awake and aware of the road, but enrich the data available for machine learning.

Greenpeace is reporting on yet another Volkswagen cheating scandal. Now, it's Greenpeace, but the data should be publicly available. The source of this story is a German language website so I won't try to read it directly, but the claim is that 35% of VW's 2020 sales of the ID.3 were self-registrations.

In other words, VW and its dealers may have bought its own cars in order to get clean energy credits.

I wonder what the future will be for Chrysler and Dodge, especially as there were fears about the brands disappearing for good.

A Chrysler 200 EV sedan cheaper than a Tesla may be a good thing for some people, especially with competitive finance deals. But would you want to pay $30k for a mid-range LX spec with a 180hp / 134kW electric motor that's not too bare-bones, but value-laden?

Chrysler seemed value-laden as a brand proposition during the Turn of the Millennium, if not a premium brand.

Is Chrysler even making EVs? If so, there's not much noise about it. They may fall too far behind. We are in the early stages of a seismic shift in automobile manufacturing. This is when the established brands will get tossed around, sifted, and the ones who can't or won't catch up will get discarded.

As much as I am a advocate for Tesla, I'm absolutely open to other EV brands if they put forth the effort to make good cars and aren't grudgingly complying with rules they hate. This is why the VW thing above makes me grind my teeth. They put a lot of money and talk into going all-in on electrification but keep getting caught cheating in various ways.

I would absolutely look into a sub-30K EV with at least 250 miles of range. Power isn't a big consideration: I'm not a racer or a gearhead. The largest element that makes me lean Tesla is self-driving. Yes, I know a lot of folks are working on it, but when it finally happens I don't want to have to buy another car. If you get a Tesla today, you are future-proofed. Your car will be capable of FSD and robo-taxi service as soon as those features are mature.

Software updates are the other thing. A Tesla gets better over time and you never have to visit a dealer. Your car gets new features and upgrades while it's parked at your home. I'm done with cars that are designed to be obsolete in four years.

Until other companies can catch up in these areas, they've got a huge competitive disadvantage.

Supposedly they're Retooling into an executive semi-premium brand producing E Vs.

I can't see brands like FIAT, Ferrari, Toyota disappearing as they've got huge amounts of name-brand recognition and customer goodwill.

Tesla on the other hand has had mixed reviews and reliability, at least according to this source from last year.

Although the brand seems cool, it probably doesn't have the same sort of feel as a brand like Vauxhall, Kia, Hyundai or Toyota do for most buyers; no special deals or discounts available.

A guy in my neighborhood wanted to electrify his old 2008 Vauxhall Astra but's re-considered it for now; it's been in his family for years now, seems to work.

Edited by Merseyuser1 on Feb 14th 2021 at 3:07:05 PM

Most of the quality complaints about Teslas have to do with fit and finish, with panel gaps and paint being the most common. These are aspects that don't have anything to do with reliability — the cars are drivable — but are signs of rushed manufacturing. Elon Musk has admitted to this directly when quizzed on it. As Tesla is going through production ramps, build quality may lag until it reaches a more stable plateau. It's definitely a problem that the company is aware of.

On the other hand, I am not aware of any battery quality issues that are statistically higher than EVs in general. Tesla batteries are designed to last for hundreds of thousands of miles, but lithium-ion technology is no stranger to defects and recalls. Remember the exploding Galaxy phones from a few years back?

The most prevalent aftermarket complaint about Tesla vehicles is the availability of service. Since it's mostly done in-house, the service division has lagged behind the sales division. Bringing your car to a Tesla service center can be a hassle and there can be significant waits for parts. However, this is also a focus of the company and it is trying very hard to bring wait times down to under ten days.

One big positive for Tesla is mobile service centers. Rather than go to a shop, you can schedule a visit from a mobile technician who can in most cases repair any issue within an hour. This includes routine maintenance like tire rotations. The cars can also self-detect faults and order parts/schedule appointments for you.

The fact that Tesla doesn't work through dealerships is precisely why there aren't piles of "special offers" and stuff like that. When you shop for one, you know exactly what you are getting. Everything is priced up front, there's no haggling, no hidden fees, no being trapped in a manager's office for hours. This is a huge advantage in my opinion.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 14th 2021 at 10:21:07 AM

Except that was a design defect, not a manufacturing one (and it was the Note 7 specifically). No matter what tweaking they did with the software, the problem was that the design would draw more power than was safe (I can't remember if it was also on the charging side as well) and it was just a matter of time before it would catch fire.

I believe it's on the Idiot Design page in more detail.

I was using it as a well-remembered example. Statistically, EV batteries are far safer than gasoline engines in terms of fires. Battery packs do fail, but my point is that there's no data suggesting that Tesla battery packs fail at a higher rate than other EVs.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 14th 2021 at 10:25:37 AM

"But would you want to pay $30k for a mid-range LX spec with a 180hp / 134kW electric motor that's not too bare-bones, but value-laden?"

Wait, what? Where?

Doesn't exist yet; but the Opel e-Corsa, sells here for £30k/$42k USD/$52k CAD, yet is a luxury hatch. Expensive!

There is a ton of information coming out of China right now saying that Tesla will release a $25,000 USD car in 2022, with prototypes available in late 2021. The core design work has apparently already been completed. Teslarati covers the story based on an interview with Tesla China President Tom Zhu, although a lot is still rumors.

The reason we believe it is because this was specifically discussed as part of Tesla's strategy in the last technology investor meeting. The vehicle will initially be produced for the Chinese market and then for the rest of the world.

There is no information available on specs. To sell in the United States it will need at least 250 miles of range and that would require continued improvements in the trend line of battery cost.

Edit: I'm also out if it's a coupe. I need a sedan, man.

Edited by Fighteer on Feb 15th 2021 at 1:40:41 PM

Singapore increased prices on petrol to get people to use electric/hybrids in the future.