Electric Vehicles (Cars, Planes, and Ships)

Not to harp on Tesla, but they are already disrupting those existing markets, so much that the financial interests behind them are actively attempting to sabotage the company by attacking its stock price, amid other pettiness.

I don't know if Tesla can, by itself, completely supplant the IC auto industry. It'd have to grow by a factor of ten to twenty, which would take a lot of time. Also, Elon has said many times that his goal is not to monopolize EVs, but to force change and get other companies to move faster to adopt the new technology.

If he does that by driving them all out of business... well, they have only themselves to blame for being out-competed. It's not the government's job to goad companies to respond to market forces unless those companies are engaging in anti-competitive practices.

It's really telling of people who supposedly worship at the altar of capitalism whether they truly believe in that or are just backing entrenched interests: ask them their opinion of Tesla. Adam Smith would be disappointed.

Anyway, the government builds roads, but it doesn't build auto plants or auto dealers. We have roads, so that's not an issue. There are already EV chargers all over the place, and more coming all the time. National electrical infrastructures may need some work if millions of cars will all be charging during peak hours. Gas stations aren't government-operated; they'll respond to market forces.

Several nations have already put in place laws and regulations designed to transition the auto industry away from petroleum, up to banning all sales of IC cars after certain dates. (climateprotection.org)

The petroleum infrastructure will be seriously impacted if way fewer vehicles are demanding fuel. That'll be a huge economic disruption, the scope of which I don't think has been fully appreciated by anyone, save possibly Elon. Aircraft, shipping, and heavy industry — including trucking — will still use petroleum for a while even after passenger vehicles have all gone electric, but it's only a matter of time until those go as well.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 22nd 2019 at 12:41:27 PM

I'm thinking in terms of things like ending the US government subsidies for oil and gas production, tax incentives to encourage the manufacturing and purchasing of electric and driverless vehicles, the development of a national smart electrical grid to manage increased electrical consumption, government research grants to subsidize driverless technology, and that sort of thing. As for dealerships, if we can refine driverless cars sufficiently, I image you could buy one on Amazon and it will drive itself to you. As for gas stations, well, how many horse stables do you see around anymore?

Yes, you're exactly right. I covered a lot of those in my prior post, but you mention a few others that bear scrutiny.

In particular, government incentives and subsidies for oil and gas need to stop and indeed reverse direction, assessing appropriate penalties and taxes to emphasize their environmental cost. If they did that, they wouldn't even need to directly incentivize renewables and eco-friendly vehicles, since the relative value would quickly become apparent.

Instead of getting a $6,000 tax credit for an EV, imagine a $6,000 tax penalty for an IC car. People would change their tunes really quickly if that happened.

As I said before, gas stations could switch to EV charging and transition from quick-shop convenience stores to something like rest stops, giving people a chance to relax during charging sessions. There would inevitably be a lot of attrition there, but you're absolutely right that they have no inherent right to exist if they become obsolete. Adapt or die.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 16th 2019 at 4:43:32 AM

Electra Meccanica Announces First SOLO EV Owner Reaches 20,000 Kilometer Milestone

For those not familiar with SOLO, it's basically a small three-wheeled electrical vehicle that is designed for shorter commutes in urban areas that is apparently going to have a manufacturer's suggested retail price around $16,250.

Edited by M84 on Jul 16th 2019 at 10:20:12 PM

News dump, since this thread is getting a little stale.

A Hyundai Kona apparently exploded inside a Montreal garage, causing severe damage to the home but no injuries. The event is under investigation, and it bears reminding that tens of thousands of gasoline vehicle fires occur per year. Still, battery safety remains a serious concern, particularly for certain kinds of chemistry. A runaway reaction inside a lithium-based battery can lead to extremely rapid heating and consequent fire or explosion, and EV manufacturers have had to devote a lot of effort to controlling these situations.

Ford shows off its all-electric F-150 by having it tow 1.25 million pounds. An impressive feat, but this vehicle is a prototype and there is as yet no information about when it will become available or how it will be marketed.

Ford may be trying to beat Tesla in unveiling their electric pickup, since the Tesla Pickup is supposed to be shown off later this year and is expected to position itself as a direct competitor for the F-150.

Cross-posting from the Self-Driving thread, Tesla announced its Q2 earnings: 6.3 billion USD with a 200 million operating loss and 400 million net loss. Free cash flow was positive, at 600 million, and the company raised 2.4 billion in additional capital for a 5 billion USD cash position. Gross margin was 14.5%; auto gross margin was 19%. [1]

While the financials aren't as stellar as many people hoped, the company appears stable and solvent, continuing to experience dramatic year-over-year growth. By comparison, Q2 2018 saw 4 billion in revenue and an operating loss of 600 million, and Q2 2017 saw 2.8 and 200, respectively. Not many companies can boast 50 percent annual growth.

Unheralded but very important: Tesla's energy business saw massive growth in Powerwall deliveries at 415 MWh, nearly double its best past quarter with the exception of the Australian project in Q1 2018. Solar is way down, unfortunately, but it's believed that they are simply not pushing it until their Solar Roof is ready.

Tesla's stock dropped significantly after the announcement of the quarterly loss, although as stated there are no concerns about solvency, and the financials are consistent with a company spending a lot of cash on growth and R&D. Worth noting is that Tesla is deferring recognition of revenue from sales of its Full Self-Driving technology, currently a $6,000 per vehicle add-on to the Model 3. That's a lot of cash in their pockets that they can't post to their earnings.

Elon Musk has said that Tesla is expected to be self-funding — that is, not dependent on investment capital to sustain its cash position — by the end of 2019.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 30th 2019 at 11:32:13 AM

Jay Leno, noted car enthusiast (and I think he was on TV a few times), was recently interviewed by CNBC. He expressed the point of view that "electric cars are the future", praising Tesla in particular.

When big names like Leno get behind EVs, it's a huge boost for the industry as a whole, and it continues to signal to traditional auto makers that the times, they are a changin'.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 13th 2019 at 9:36:51 AM

China’s Nio tops electric cars in quality

That said, it's apparently having money problems due to EV sales floundering in China after subsidies expired.

This is another case where subsidies cause market distortions when they aren't properly allocated. Rather than subsidize electric vehicles, governments should be penalizing purchases of gas cars. How about a surcharge at purchase based on the rated fuel economy of the vehicle? The less efficient, the more you pay. That'd get manufacturers hopping.

To be fair to consumers who may buy/lease an IC vehicle but trade it in after a year or whatever, maybe we could make it a surcharge on vehicle registration instead. Or a bit of both: force manufacturers to pay a tax on every sale of an IC car or truck, and charge consumers extra per year of ownership.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 13th 2019 at 9:56:46 AM

In my state (AZ), I get free registration on my EV. Also, I only have to renew every 5 years.

Also, I don't have to pay fuel tax when buying gas, since I obviously never have to buy any gas.

If you can commit to driving an EV for a long time (100k miles) the fuel savings, maintance savings, and registration savings basically make the car pay for itself.

Yes, but it's still a large up-front investment. The sticker shock is difficult for a lot of people to get over. Things that might help include listing the estimated total cost of ownership for every vehicle sold based on miles driven.

Tesla includes fuel savings in their pitch. They also mentioned the free registration and getting to use the HOV lane without a passenger.

Yeah, but IC vehicles need similar data on their stickers, making the opposite pitch. Not just on the stickers, but in the advertised prices on TV, the Internet, etc.

"Retail price $19,999. Estimated annual cost of ownership $4,350." Something like that. Really make the case that an EV pays for itself many times over in the long term.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 13th 2019 at 12:41:43 PM

For psychological reasons, people are more comfortable subsidizing behavior that discouraging it (except for crime, of course).

We tax negative behaviors all the time. We just don't currently consider ownership of an IC vehicle "negative" at a cultural level. Well, not in the US. Any politician who ran on a platform of taxing sales of gas cars would be toast.

Edited by Fighteer on Aug 13th 2019 at 10:49:04 AM

FYI: National Drive Electric Week is coming up: September 14-22. Events are being held all over the United States where owners of BEVs and HEVs (Battery-Electric Vehicles and Hybrid-Electric Vehicles) can get together to show off their cars and swap information, and everyone else can look, touch, and even get rides/drives.

I'm already registered to attend the event in my area. Go here to learn more.

I'm not in a personal position to replace my car until at least 2023, when the loan is paid off, and neither is my wife, but I want my next vehicle to be a Model 3, or whatever the equivalent is then... assuming that we aren't transitioning to a driverless taxi fleet model by that point.

In other news, Porsche has unveiled its new all-electric Taycan, the successor to the Mission E. (Porsche website) It's expensive, as one would expect, starting at over 150K USD. The base specs are impressive, although it's still unable to beat comparable Tesla Model S versions at half the price. It's billed as a track car, and in fairness the Model S is not. (Jalopnik in-depth look)

Porsche apparently intends to commit to a production rate of at least 20,000 vehicles per year, which shows significantly more dedication than most other major manufacturers. (Porsche is owned by Volkswagen, which recently had a major scandal over the pollution controls on its diesel cars.)

In response to the Taycan, Elon Musk got into a bit of a tweet battle (Teslarati article), and has now committed to race his cars at Nürburgring. While the Model S is not meant to have track level performance (it's great for drag racing, but the battery loses power when it heats up under track conditions), the Model 3 Performance version is, and it'll be interesting to see how it lines up.

The Taycan may indeed be positioned not against the Model S (or the Model 3 Performance, which is less than a third of the price), but the new Tesla Roadster, which is not in production yet as far as I know.

Regardless, it's a win for electric vehicles in general as the point of all this competition is to attract more luxury buyers, and thus generate cachet for the cars that will lead to a push from consumers for more mass-market products.

In other Tesla news, Elon Musk visited China and got a tax break for cars produced at the new Shanghai Gigafactory. Chinese officials, in addition to the unprecedented move of allowing a wholly foreign-owned manufacturer to set up shop in their country, are now waiving the 10% purchase tax for Tesla cars made and sold in China.

This is a huge deal because it'll boost demand for these cars even more than already exists, helping China to move towards its goal of converting most automobile sales to electric by 2040. It's a huge deal for Tesla because it positions the company to be the big winner in the trade war being waged between the U.S. and China. Teslas made in China could even be exported to other nations.

The Shanghai Gigafactory has already built its first cars and intends to go into mass production by the end of the year, with the potential to produce 150,000 vehicles annually. This will more than double Tesla's current global capacity, and it is rumored that a second Chinese factory might be built if this one is successful. (Talks are still ongoing for the European Gigafactory.)

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 9th 2019 at 10:36:58 AM

Teslarati: Tesla Model S sets 4-door sedan lap record at Laguna Seca.

This article is based on a series of tweets by Elon Musk, wherein he announced the record-setting lap time without details, promising video soon to follow. The previous record, 1:37.5, was set by a modded Tesla Model 3 Performance. Musk is preparing to racing the Model S at the legendary 13-mile Nürburgring track with former Formula One World Champion Nico Rosberg at the wheel. Road and Track says that its official date with history is September 21.

Per Musk, they need some time before the official trial to test the car on the track and tune it to perform optimally. The Model S has a well-documented issue with battery performance over long track runs, as overheating forces the software to throttle it down. Notably, the Model 3 Performance does not have this problem, but the Model S is much faster in sprints.

In the same Twitter thread, Musk promised that the new Tesla Roadster would be coming out "next year", which, if it follows the trend they've been setting, will blow away literally everything else on the track.

Edited to add:

• Tesla tweet with video of Laguna Seca lap time of 1:36.555, beating the previous record by one second.
  • The driver was a company employee and not a track pro, leaving open even crazier lap times in the future.
• Elon Musk followup thread
  • The Model S that's doing all this racing is an R&D version for the Plaid powertrain and chassis, coming to production next year for S, X, and Roadster. This will have three motors and will cost more; additional details are not yet public.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 11th 2019 at 11:17:17 AM

(Teslarati): Tesla Model S beats Porsche Taycan’s Nurburgring lap by ~20 secs: German auto mag

Worth noting is that both cars for this comparison are prototypes or special track versions, not production models, and the Model S lap was hand-timed, but the difference is still stark. Whether or not Elon was motivated to push this event due to the Taycan's release, the numbers are unmistakable, and the Plaid powertrain was in development long before.

Also from Teslarati: Tesla’s new Roadster will beat Nürburgring’s all-time lap record, says Elon Musk

With a 1.9 s 0-60 and 250 mph top speed, the new Roadster will be the fastest production electric vehicle in history and Musk claims it will crush the all-time lap record as well. It's not clear if he's referring to the base version or the "SpaceX" version, with cold gas thrusters giving it up to 3 g of straight-line acceleration, but regardless, that's kind of insane.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 18th 2019 at 8:17:51 AM

Worth noting that the Taycan used in the test was a pre-production model using regular tires, while the Tesla Model S was not a production vehicle and reportedly used racing tires.

I doubt the official time will be that much different from the informal one, unless whoever was timing it was really bad at it.

Edited by M84 on Sep 18th 2019 at 8:51:40 PM

Correct, and they intend to re-race with the final production Plaid Model S. I think the most important takeaway from the lap time is that they've solved the heating shutdown issues in the Model S powertrain. Previously, the car couldn't even finish the lap if you drove it at racing speeds.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 18th 2019 at 9:08:46 AM

I'm glad that car goes 250 mph. It'll surely help me when the speed limit on the freeway is raised from 65 mph to 250.

I don't think anyone is seriously going to buy the Tesla Roadster so they can drive 250 mph on the freeway. By that same logic, why would you buy any supercar? Are you going to drive your McLaren F1 to the Whole Foods? The point is... well, there are several, but the main point is to demonstrate that an EV can beat a gas car in every single measure of performance: acceleration, range, top speed, track times.

It goes along with Elon's core philosophy: to attract people to a revolutionary new technology, it can't just be equal to existing products; it has to be better. Way better. So much better that you look foolish to own the old product.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 18th 2019 at 10:50:18 AM

That's a fair point.

if you've seen Jay Leno's Garage or Doug Demuro, you would've known that Mc Laren F1 is surprisingly practical for a supercar, thanks to 3 seats and cargo compartments behind the doors

anyways, i'm a car enthusiast, so i'm gonna miss the petrol engine in the future. which doesn't seem to be changing unless we start reverse engineering all of the CO 2 in the air. i'm just glad that enthusiast targeted electric cars became a thing

I don't want to sound patronizing, but have you driven a high-end EV, like a Model 3 Performance or a Model S? Get in one of those, floor it, then tell me you like gas cars better. Sure, you don't have as many things to tweak, but you also don't have as many things to break. Sure, it doesn't sound like a gas car, but you can hear yourself talk inside. And if you miss the sound, maybe you can get a soundtrack of a revving engine to play over the stereo system while you drive.

Based on fleet replacement rates, we could, if manufacturers and governments really commit to it, have a majority of the world's IC vehicles converted to electricity within the next 20 years. Many nations have set explicit targets for this, such as adoption rates or dates past which no gas cars may be sold.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 18th 2019 at 6:37:01 AM

Did your rented e-scooter suddenly shut down? Blame the invisible geofence. This is an article about how some cities in California have remotely enforced limits on how fast e-scooters go and to stop them from going to certain places. I am posting this here because I wonder if such centrally enforced speed limits and traffic rules will become the norm for a world with e-vehicles (or even more so self-driving ones). That'd be quite a technological revolution.