Oh, bother.
Lack of money, older relatives unable or unwilling to leave, lingering optimism that things might still improve, I assume.
And even in good circumstances, starting a new life in another country is a very tedious and lengthy process.
Edited by M84 on Feb 15th 2021 at 12:00:33 AM
Disgusted, but not surprised
Easy: I didnt graduate from political science until last year(a lot of mistake an fuck up from my part) and my girlfriend is still here and suffer from depression so I wont leave her alone.
Also I can tell you, learnig political science here in venezuela is and experience, having the dubious honor in this forum of living in a dictatorship does give me a strange perpective in all this.
Edited by unknowing on Feb 14th 2021 at 12:08:29 PM
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
Anka Aquila
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Also, growing resentment amongst the population of the "host" countries of the Venezuelan diaspora.
Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, we should find the absolutes that tie us.
, , Thanks for answering that question.
Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Feb 14th 2021 at 10:56:58 AM
A procrastination in of itself
The problem with an intervention is that as nice as it sounds it can only work if there’s popular support for it amongst the population. The US can’t do the fighting alone, it would need the Venezuelan population to be willing to engage in a general uprising.
Based on what you folks have said there isn’t that level of opposition to Maduro.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Except Iraq wasn't an intevention by any stretch of imagination - it was a blatant invasion under flimsy pretenses that has somehow become the go-to example for "interventions bad".
If you want to look at interventions done badly, look at Libya.
Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Feb 15th 2021 at 11:27:41 AM
Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.
Foreign Troper
As far as bad nation building goes, you can also look at Afghanistan.
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
Except Iraq wasn't an intevention by any stretch of imagination - it was a blatant invasion under flimsy pretenses that has somehow become the go-to example for "interventions bad".
If you want to look at interventions done badly, look at Libya.
This is a distinction without a difference, it was an armed intervention. If the US military goes into Venezuela it would also be an invasion, just one that's more justified. And would involve fewer lies probably.
It's the go-to example for the anti-intervention side because it was a disaster that ruined Iraq and came with horrible geopolitical and humanitarian consequences.
Libya isn't a very good example for this situation because its problem was that we took down the government while doing nothing to stabilize the situation. The same wouldn't be true of a hypothetical invasion of Venezuela, thus Iraq is a better example of a failure state.
The problem with an intervention is that as nice as it sounds it can only work if there’s popular support for it amongst the population. The US can’t do the fighting alone, it would need the Venezuelan population to be willing to engage in a general uprising.
Based on what you folks have said there isn’t that level of opposition to Maduro.
And honestly, I just don't believe the US is currently capable of re-constructing a nation, look at Iraq and Afghanistan. The former had unavoidable mistakes on the part of the Bush administration but the latter's failure can't be blamed solely on them.
Venezuela is in a horrible state, but it can always get worse and an invasion could very well do that. Pragmatically I just can't support it.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 15th 2021 at 6:27:26 AM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
Anka Aquila
@ Silasw
I doubt that Maduro really has the support he used to have when he ascended to power, the only thing that is keeping the population from truly speaking out is that Maduro has the military upper brass under his control.
@ Forenperser
Luckily, Venezuela has more in common with the USA than Afghanistan by virtue of being a fellow western country, not to mention that it has neighbours who could be swayed to help.
Just for the record, I doubt that the venezuelans here like to hear the "we can't do anything because it can get worse" line, because frankly that reticence doesn't come across as being sensible but being cowardly.
Of course there's bound to be things that don't go according to the plan, but I can assure you that if the venezuelans regain a flicker of hope that things truly can get better instead of consistently getting worse you'll have the popular support in no time.
Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, we should find the absolutes that tie us.
Okay, i'll bite - what exactly was the US intervening in in this case? He wasn't actively protecting a terrorist group that outright attacked another country like Afghanistan's regime did and he wasn't engaged in large-scale massacres of his own population at that point in history, as far I rememember (and if that was a criterium, the US would have taken him out way earlier).
The Iraq invasion was a blatant war of aggression, plain and simple. Trying to portray it as an intervention just muddies the water.
Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Feb 15th 2021 at 4:03:17 PM
Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.
A procrastination in of itself
That applies to every tinpot dictator in the world, a general sentiment of “We don’t like him and would get rid of him if the military would let us” isn’t enough for a successfully intervention, the population have to be at the “I don’t care if I die, I’m gonna fight this bastard till he kills me” for an intervention to work.
Nobody liked Saddam, but he wasn’t facing a general uprising in 2003 and that’s a big part of why the invasion of Iraq went so badly.
I think you’re underestimating how much Bush screwed Afghanistan, there’s a honeymoon period in nation building where the population are willing to let the invaders do a lot of things, Bush squandered that period and it fundamentally ruined the nation-building in Afghanistan. That period has to be used to set up proper systems of governance, the system of governance set up in Afghanistan was laughable and incredibly divisive.
Edited by Silasw on Feb 15th 2021 at 3:08:39 PM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Just for the record, I doubt that the venezuelans here like to hear the "we can't do anything because it can get worse" line, because frankly that reticence doesn't come across as being sensible but being cowardly.
That's their prerogative, but they're incorrect. Recognizing that we could kill even more people is just a fact of reality, Iraq and Afghanistan show the consequences of a society engaging in nation-building that lacks the aptitude for it.
Would I like to change things so we could do it properly? Of course, but that's not plausible for the foreseeable future.
Okay, i'll bite - what exactly was the US intervening in in this case? He wasn't actively protecting a terrorist group that outright attacked another country like Afghanistan's regime did and he wasn't engaged in large-scale massacres of his own population at that point in history, as far I rememember (and if that was a criterium, the US would have taken him out way earlier).
The Iraq invasion was a blatant war of aggression, plain and simple. Trying to portray it as an intervention just muddies the water.
They were intervening in Iraq. That's what intervention means, you deploying military forces to implement a change in a country.
I think you’re underestimating how much Bush screwed Afghanistan, there’s a honeymoon period in nation building where the population are willing to let the invaders do a lot of things, Bush squandered that period and it fundamentally ruined the nation-building in Afghanistan. That period has to be used to set up proper systems of governance, the system of governance set up in Afghanistan was laughable and incredibly divisive.
That's true, but I'm not confident Dems have the skill to do so. And I know for a fact that as a nation we lack the commitment.
I'm sure it would be better if it was done under a hypothetical Gore administration but better is not the same thing as good.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 15th 2021 at 10:18:34 AM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
A procrastination in of itself
Not really. Intervention is in this instance being used as shorthand for “Humanitarian intervention”, a humanitarian intervention requires a specific humanitarian catastrophe to be ongoing and the purpose of the intervention to be the ending of that catastrophe.
The US currently lacks the commitment, generally for successfully nation-building you need to take a longer-term approach, not the “throw election at it and it’ll be over by Christmas” approach taken by the Bush administration. Look at Bosnia and Kosovo, both still not done.
Edited by Silasw on Feb 17th 2021 at 10:22:13 AM
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
The US currently lacks the commitment, generally for successfully nation-building you need to take a longer-term approach, not the “throw election at it and it’ll be over by Christmas” approach taken by the Bush administration. Look at Bosnia and Kosovo, both still not done.
Exactly, we need to have the Will to spend decades investing both blood and treasure into rebuilding Venezuela.
Would I support that? Hell yes, but unfortunately the US isn't made up of clones of me 
"That applies to every tinpot dictator in the world, a general sentiment of “We don’t like him and would get rid of him if the military would let us” isn’t enough for a successfully intervention, the population have to be at the “I don’t care if I die, I’m gonna fight this bastard till he kills me” for an intervention to work. "
Except that people have rise plenty of time against Maduro and part of what it fail was lima group and trump did nothing, the first in understimated maduro and the second because putin convince him that guiado was like hilary if bolton is to be belive, so is not that there isnt suport here.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
A procrastination in of itself
And during said uprisings there was an argument for a humanitarian intervention, but right now the uprisings are over, you can’t justify an invasion based on a past uprisings, that’s what was done with Iraq.
The other factor is that the US can’t act alone, the US doesn’t have the capability to do nation-building solo, Germany was a joint project, Iraq was a joint project, Bosnia was a joint project, Kosovo was a joint project, Afghanistan in a joint project.
The US can form the backbone of a international action, but it can’t be alone, others have to be involved if for no other reason than to keep the US from going all in on giving shady US companies contracts as part of the national building process.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Foreign Troper
I still can't get over the fact how it was tried to justify Iraq with the chemical weapons attack on the Kurds, something Saddam did while being allied to the US.
But yeah, BTT. Are the reports of Maduro having sent death squads to kill thousands believable?
It says 18.000 here
https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/09/18/venezuela-extrajudicial-killings-poor-areas
That sounds extremely high. Not that I would put it past Maduro, but if it is true, why hasn't there been more coverage on it?
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
I'm not sure, authoritarian governments tend to get more violent the less secure in their power they are and past Latin American military governments have killed tens of thousands, so it's not like authoritarian democide is unprecedented.
But 18K does sound very high.
Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Feb 17th 2021 at 3:08:50 AM
"Sandwiches are probably easier to fix than the actual problems" -Hylarn
In the name of being honest
The Contrasting Management of Venezuelan Mass Migration in the Americas
Venezuelan Mass Migration: a Fait Accompli
The international community is becoming aware that not even the pandemic is going to stop Venezuelans from leaving their country again.
In the last months, displacement restarted, even with the confinement measures and the closed borders; with the hope of regime change already waning, and the increasing effects of shortages, hyperinflation, and collapse of public services, millions of people are forced to at least consider leaving their nation to survive and send remittances to their families. Even without savings or documents.
Every receiving country is now dealing with this, according to several practical and political factors that are different for every place. The problem, then, can’t be approached without considering some key points:
- Almost all countries in South America and the Caribbean are more used to producing migrants than they are to receiving them. Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador are quite used to having millions of their nationals abroad, but have no historical experience of getting an influx of migrants in the scale of the Venezuelan mass migration that started in 2017. They’re simply unprepared.
- The economic hardships of the pandemic increase the resistance of any society to share its diminishing public resources and employment opportunities with foreigners. Vaccination and hospital beds are part of those limited resources, which usually prioritize nationals.
- There are many differences in resources and political stances in Venezuela’s neighboring countries. One thing is the tiny Trinidad, where the government is a Maduro ally and where xenophobia is a deterrent for migration, and another thing is the vast Brazil, where Venezuelans are a manageable group amid 200 million people. And then there’s Colombia, still dragging the effects of its long armed conflict, and currently home to about 1.7 million Venezuelans.
- There’s a wide gap between poor, stressed countries that Venezuelans can reach on foot (or on boats), and countries like the United States and Canada.
Colombia: Generosity or Pragmatism?
On February 8th, the Colombian government announced Temporary Protection Status (ETP, for its acronym in Spanish) for all Venezuelans living in that country without a regular immigration status (with the exception of people convicted of criminal offenses and some other cases). It provides Venezuelans in Colombia with papers and eligibility for ten-year residency permits. Presumably, it will also make life easier for those with weaker permits (like the Special Permanence Permit) and provides a clear pathway to citizenship (after five years, they can become permanent residents, and after five more they can apply for citizenship).
This measure has no precedent in the recent and intense history of Venezuelan migration: it’s the amplest gesture of protection (in terms of reach and depth) that any country has had so far, including Brazil’s Operaçao Acolhida and the Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) that Trump signed before leaving office.
The democratic responsibility visa that used to serve Venezuelans has now been revoked, and those who were undergoing the process since before the pandemic to enter Chile, have been left with little to no legal options, even as tourists.
First, it must be understood that this isn’t a politically popular measure in Colombia. As Manuel Rueda points out, a recent Gallup poll revealed that 68% of the Colombians surveyed have an unfavorable opinion of Venezuelan migrants. Plus, as many countries in the region, Colombia is already stressed by the economic pressures of the pandemic and the remaining political violence. What drove President Iván Duque to grant this measure? Why would the political heir of Álvaro Uribe, clearly on the right-wing, extend such a gesture in a country that had been making headlines for xenophobia agitated by political figures like the mayor of Bogota?
The answer may go beyond simply opening arms to the millions of citizens fleeing the country ruled by his regional adversary, Nicolás Maduro; it’s smart crisis management. By regularizing these people, Colombia will be able to have better control of the variables involved in the influx of so many Venezuelans, and access to the international funding required to provide them with vaccines and shelter—handling the enormous demand for health services that vulnerable migration demands. With a protection status, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in Colombia will have access to more formal jobs that allow socioeconomic insertion in Colombian society, which also means insertion into the local tax environment and a lower risk of getting absorbed by criminal activities.
Hopefully, this move by the Colombian government will cause a domino effect in the region.
Different Logistics When Facing a Tragedy
Colombia’s ETP quickly received the nod from the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who commended Iván Duque, tweeting that “the U.S. stands with Colombia in support of refugees and migrants as we also work to rebuild and expand our humanitarian programs worldwide.” This expansion of U.S. humanitarian programs includes a major immigration reform, which according to OAS Director of Inclusion, Betilde Muñoz Pogossian, is surely to encounter pushback in the American Congress.
We recently spoke with Betilde and with immigration lawyer Julio Enríquez, and both agreed that the DED signed by former president Trump in his last day in office is a great piece of news for Venezuelans in the U.S., while still coming short regarding the level of protection that the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) could grant. First, DED is not a status, and it could be easily revoked. Although it also creates the possibility or work permits for migrants, it requires a separate structure to process such permits which currently doesn’t exist. Compared to the Colombian ETP, which extends for ten years, the DED’s 18 months fail to acknowledge that this is a long term migration crisis. The TPS, mind you, usually has similar term limitations.
In Betilde’s opinion, we’re likely to see a TPS for Venezuelans soon, not only because a wider immigration reform is a long way down the road, but because the TPS could be easily enacted by an Executive Order from President Joe Biden. Here’s our conversation on the matter, in our podcast in Spanish La Conversa:
Meanwhile, in Chile, the Piñera administration is reacting with the police and the military to a surge in the Venezuelan influx from the borders with Peru and Bolivia. With reinforced security in border towns and the deportation of over a hundred migrants (dressed in biosafety suits, in an Air Force plane), it was like the E.T. movie climax and a Trump-style immigration gesture in the arid Chilean north. Piñera also asked the Bolivian, Peruvian and Colombian Migration Police departments to join forces in stopping irregular migration.
Migratory patterns did change during the first months of the pandemic, but they’re now showing a bigger flow than before, leading to the collapse of border towns which have to deal with their own problems of food distribution and other basic services affected by the quarantine measures. Also, while the militarization of borders and the deportation of Venezuelan and Colombian migrants is taking over the headlines of the region, Piñera’s government has also hampered the regular means to enter the country. The democratic responsibility visa program that used to serve Venezuelans has now been revoked, and those who were undergoing the process since before the pandemic to enter Chile, have been left with little to no legal options, even as tourists.
In Ecuador, the first round of presidential elections was preceded by plenty of political fearmongering about the chavista model, with some anti-Venezuelan messages added in. That’s the atmosphere in countries like Trinidad and Peru, too, which face the realities of Venezuelan migration with lessened political stability, diminished resources, and high anxiety amid their stressed populations—a context where the pandemic can be used to turn Venezuelan migrants into scapegoats of sorts.
But the problem remains: these migrants won’t just disappear. Sooner or later, everyone in South America will have to look at what Colombia just did and understand the obvious: the elements that expel Venezuelans from their borders are going nowhere for the foreseeable future and this is a region unlike the Mediterranean Sea or the South Pacific, where you can hold migrants in islands and look the other way.
Edited by eagleoftheninth on Feb 17th 2021 at 4:02:14 AM
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Shin Megami Tensei IV
Lack of information, the killings being very "messy" (ie. Hard to differenciate from "generic" Police Bruality) and the general state collapse in the region
Hard to said if the number are correct but indeed brutal killing by scurity forces are happing, maduro dosent need to hide the fact is a state sponsor thug.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
You heard any of it happening in your area or close to it?
Close? no, but I something similar happen to me.
You see my mother is a journalis and a very respected one here in my city, a lot of people know her and she always have strong principles, yet she always suport chavismo since she used to be a marxist back in her youth, in fact she got a prize on journalist and yes, I saw chavez itself in person and I think I have a constituion firm by him, what a privilage right?.
Well you see, she did have a tv channel, when guaido auto proclaim president back in january of last year, a friendlyTv channel(coquivacoa Tv) that share equipment with us put a photoshop image of Guaido with the presiedencial bagage around him, a inconsequencial thing, but just enough to make chavistas here feel mad enough that at midnight they storm the channel and loot everything and I mean EVERYTHING, all because they didnt like what they saw.
Si imagine that, my mother who work for truth and dedicate year to chavismo only to be paid by looting and censurship of their channel by the same people who give her a prize on journalism.....
You can imagine how that color my opinion of chavismo.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
I'm wondering what didn't make you all leave first thing.