North Korea

I would be more worried about the South. Although Southern victory is nearly inevitable in the event of a war, North Korea would do unspeakable damage to the South's infrastructure. This is especially bad when one considers that Seoul is rather close to the border.

edited 23rd Nov '10 3:55:34 AM by Pentadragon

The north would be being pressured to surrender from every side around about now if all this happened, even China isn't willing to put up with them anymore it seems.

@King Zeal: Back when Bush was doing his brinkmanship thing with Iraq and completely ignoring talks with NK, NK hadn't actually announced their nuclear capability. More proof, as if it was needed, that the Republicans are a bunch of giant chickenhawks.

If they do, in fact have nukes, does anybody have an estimate as to what their megatonnage would be?

If they didn't blow up everything they had in the two tests they've done, most likely they would have standard Hiroshima or Nagasaki-type atomic bombs (that is, not thermonuclear). Their second test was in the kiloton-range, roughly 15 kilotons.

Given their industrial capabilities, the most likely situation would be for NK to have anything between 1 and 5 atomic bombs, roughly 15 kilotons each in power. They don't have functioning ICB Ms yet. They have rockets, but they are basically SCUD missiles.

They also don't need nukes to reduce Seoul to rubble: They have insane amounts of conventional artillery pre-aimed and dug out in hillsides just over the armistice line, ready to rain roughly a couple of nukes worth of cannon shells in about half an hour all over Seoul. They would be able to destroy the capital of SK before those guns are neutralized.

Apperantly North Korean artillary is fairly overrated.

They don't have ICBM's though,

Taepodong II ICBM. In its three-stage configuration it's thought to reach as far as Kansas City Missouri from the Korean Peninsula. (~10000 km) In a two-stage configuration (the more numerous variant) it can reach Anchorage Alaska. (~6000 km)

Fortunately none of them have been made with nuclear warheads yet. Nor does NK have enough to breach US Missile Defense. (Anybody who thinks anti-ballistic missile technology is a waste of money is a complete and utter moron given what just happened.)

edited 23rd Nov '10 7:06:07 AM by MajorTom

As per the OP:

War with North Korea is inevitable, has been for some time. Diplomacy will not defuse the situation as we've long since passed the point of no return on the slide towards war. Only question remains, how long do we have before NK is declared a Free Fire Zone.

That particular ICBM doesn't work. That they're developing it is well known, but those are only its theoretical characteristics. Also, because of their industrial capability being what it is, the few missles they have would mean easy targets for ABM systems, either on the peninsula or throughout the Pacific.

But I agree war is nigh inevitable.

Yeah, it's not saber rattling any more. It's ... err ... saber poking.

Things have definitely gotten worse, but I don't think it's a write-off just yet. Given our change of presidents, perhaps we and China can restart talks from a blank slate and work something out to truly buy off their nuclear capability, shutting down the whole program.

Oh, and Tom? Not that our paper tiger ABM program would actually be of the tiniest use, but do you seriously think NK would try to launch a handful of missiles at something the size and distance of us when much more tempting (and despised) targets like SK and Japan are right next door?

^ They are that paranoid. Tokyo and Seoul are a waste of a Taepodong missile. (they have shorter ranged stuff like the Nodong-1)

And in case you haven't paid attention, Obama's a joke on the foreign stage. The time for a "blank slate" ended 22 months ago. The Chinese are not going to do such a thing given how weak Obama is on foreign policy.

i am beginning to realize with a bit of dread that I will live to see the Korea peninsula devolve into open conbat. I can't see Korean Unification happening any other way, and that's unfortunate.

^ Live to see it? People like me are going to live to fight in it.

War is hardly in North Koreas interest.

...are we talking about the same North Korea here?

Then why else would they do such shit as arms dealing, developing nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, sinking a South Korean corvette, and now doing this?

With that track record it's not a leap to conclude that war is in their interest.

Look at North Koreas practical options. If it attacks goes to war, it gets crushed. If it doesn't, its regime gets to cling on for another generation.

edited 23rd Nov '10 8:49:47 AM by GameChainsaw

North Korea has never been known for choosing practicality. Otherwise they wouldn't have seized the USS Pueblo in the 1950s, they wouldn't have shot that airliner down in the 1980s, or sank the Cheonan, or tested a live nuclear warhead when most everybody around them (China just kept quiet) was saying not to.

They do it because they believe they can get away with it, and it scores points for Kim back home.

For those who say Kim is nuts, I get the feeling he knows exactly what he is doing.

Then tell me, why the hell are they doing all that shit anyway?

^^ Why would he possibly need to score points back home? He rules with absolute authority and nobody not even the military questions him. This is not some democratic state where he has to do publicity stunts or various actions to keep the normals placated

The masses in North Korea are brainwashed, mindless droves who live completely disarmed and devoid of any freedoms. They couldn't rebel or change their government ever. They are the perfect real world analogue to George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty Four.

edited 23rd Nov '10 8:59:45 AM by MajorTom

Well, isn't it important to have them remain brainwashed?

What the hell does testing nuclear warheads, sinking the Cheonan, and shooting an airliner down do for the citizens?

Once brainwashed it's very difficult to un-brainwash yourself, especially if you have neither outside contact nor the ability to learn anything that isn't fed in line with the brainwashing.

Basically, we could have a line of tanks surrounding Pyongyang and artillery barrages laying waste to the city and the people still inside would still think they would be winning and that Kim Il Sung was a god or something like that.

^ That too.

edited 23rd Nov '10 9:08:20 AM by MajorTom