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"El Toro Bravo" will be loosely based on the murder of Denise Thiem
It takes place in a popular tourist attraction in Spain (the Running of the Bulls vs St James Way), the likely victim is an American backpacker with the initials T. D., and there is a farm involved. Like one would expect of the mother series, however, the UnSub will be a Serial Killer that has been killing tourists under the local law enforcement's nose for years, rather than a one-time murderer.
  • Confirmed except for the last part: They knew that a serial killer was involved, and the reason they didn't solve it a year before borders on Idiot Plot.

The UnSub in "Iqiniso" altered his crime spree plans shortly before the events in the episode
He would have no reason to believe that Armand Smit's sons would ever come back to live in South Africa. The only way he had to strike back at Smit would be by targeting his sister, who never left. She would have been his next victim after Lara Bosch, but he learned who the kids were while stalking Smit's sister after killing Bosch, and he figured that going after them would pain Smit more. Before Smit's adopted son was available, the person he had intended to leave alive as a witness after torturing him was Bosch's illegitimate brother (hence why he didn't go after him until after getting Smit's sons).

Season 2's "Il Mostro" will combine the Monster of Florence and the Amanda Knox case, and include a transparent expy of Giuliano Mignini as a secondary villain
Because frankly, they would be crazy not to. That episode writes itself.
  • Jossed, the local law enforcement guy is possibly the most sympathetic, professional and level-headed of all to appear in the show, and the killer (who turns out to be the real Monster of Florence returned) is never suspected to be American.

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