History UsefulNotes / NuclearWeapons

One of the most iconic images from the ''Franchise/{{Fallout}}'' video game series is a picture of [[http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110809182235/fallout/images/c/c0/VaultBoyFO3.png Vault Boy holding his arm out and giving a thumbs up]]. He's not celebrating or approving of anything-- he's testing to see if he's in the fallout radius. Convention has it that if you can hold your arm out at full length and completely hide the mushroom cloud on the horizon behind your thumb, then you're outside of the fallout zone. If you still see the cloud outside of your thumb, then you're not safe. Of course, this method of testing is depending on the idea that the size of the cloud is directly proportionate to the fallout it will create. Not a very reliable testing method in the event of an actual detonation.

This mushroom cloud disperses in a matter of hours. During that time, fallout starts raining down on the ground. Radioactive fallout consists of what's left of the bomb, stuff caught in the fireball that's been made radioactive by the bomb's intense neutron radiation, and a whole host of new and exciting isotopes created in the explosion itself. Most of it has half-lives short enough to disappear within hours, days or weeks. This is the idea behind fallout shelters - not to spend the rest of your life down there, but to wait in a shelter for a couple of days until the worst of the fallout has disappeared. However, stuff like strontium-90 (half-life of 29 years) or caesium-137 (30 years) have half-lives short enough to be really radioactive, but long enough to stick around and cause trouble for decades. It's worth noting people in the radiation biz generally use seven half lives as the rule of thumb when getting to 'zero' radiation, and that's not counting radioactive daughter products. This is why the (control) Vaults in ''VideoGame/{{Fallout}}'' were set to open after twenty years. [[note]]Radiation in ''Fallout'' [[ArtisticLicenseNuclearPhysics works in ways]] that [[INeedAFreakingDrink drive nuclear physicists to drink]], but it's still worth noting.[[/note]]

One of the most iconic images from the ''VideoGame/{{Fallout}}'' video game series is a picture of [[http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110809182235/fallout/images/c/c0/VaultBoyFO3.png Vault Boy holding his arm out and giving a thumbs up]]. He's not celebrating or approving of anything-- he's testing to see if he's in the fallout radius. Convention has it that if you can hold your arm out at full length and completely hide the mushroom cloud on the horizon behind your thumb, then you're outside of the fallout zone. If you still see the cloud outside of your thumb, then you're not safe. Of course, this method of testing is depending on the idea that the size of the cloud is directly proportionate to the fallout it will create. Not a very reliable testing method in the event of an actual detonation.

This mushroom cloud disperses in a matter of hours. During that time, fallout starts raining down on the ground. Radioactive fallout consists of what's left of the bomb, stuff caught in the fireball that's been made radioactive by the bomb's intense neutron radiation, and a whole host of new and exciting isotopes created in the explosion itself. Most of it has half-lives short enough to disappear within hours, days or weeks. This is the idea behind fallout shelters - not to spend the rest of your life down there, but to wait in a shelter for a couple of days until the worst of the fallout has disappeared. However, stuff like strontium-90 (half-life of 29 years) or caesium-137 (30 years) have half-lives short enough to be really radioactive, but long enough to stick around and cause trouble for decades. It's worth noting people in the radiation biz generally use seven half lives as the rule of thumb when getting to 'zero' radiation, and that's not counting radioactive daughter products. This is why the (control) Vaults in ''VideoGame/{{Fallout}}'' were set to open after twenty years. (Radiation in ''Fallout'' [[ArtisticLicenseNuclearPhysics works in ways]] that [[INeedAFreakingDrink drives nuclear physicists to drink]], but it's still worth noting.)

* Within 2.45 km (1.53 miles), most of Burbank, including our target, the Mt. Sinai Memorial Cemetery and a couple of parks, will just be gone. Nothing is going to survive on the surface.

The first thing you get with a nuclear explosion is the light flash. This is very, very bright and if you are close enough (21 km (13 miles) on a clear day and 85 km (53 miles) at night for a 1 megaton nuke) will cause at least temporary flash blindness. Unless you're [[Series/DoctorWho Sarah Jane Smith]] and probably for her too, this is not good at all. But heaven help you if you [[EyeScream look up at the sky while the bomb goes off]].

After the fireball disperses, you will see the mushroom cloud start to form from condensing vapor. This contains water, debris and general radioactive nastiness. It's not just a nuclear explosion thing: any large explosion will produce one, as well as volcanic eruptions or a meteorite impact. There's [[UsefulNotes/SecondSinoJapaneseWar a 1937 description of an explosion in Shanghai]] that references a mushroom -- 8 years before the first nuclear explosions. (All that's required to create a mushroom cloud is enough heat applied in a short enough time; nuclear weapons just happen to be especially good at this.) Furthermore, one account of the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in Italy in 79 AD described it as having the shape of a pine tree; pine trees in Italy have [[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/Pinien_La_Brena2004.jpg a similar shape to mushrooms]].

The mechanism is a little different for high-altitude bursts. The deposition region ends up being in a large region of the upper atmosphere. Only the gamma rays that travel to what becomes this region have much of an effect; otherwise, there's not much to interact with. Anyway, across this very large area Compton electrons are produced. Phillip J. Dolan, in ''The Effects of Nuclear Weapons'', wasn't very specific; he just said that "[the] electrons are deflected by the earth's magnetic field and are forced to undergo a turning motion about the field lines...[this causes] the electrons to be subjected to a radial acceleration which results, by a complex mechanism, in the generation of an EMP that moves down toward the Earth." The electric field is rather less intense, but for obvious reasons the areas affected are much larger. This way, electronics across entire regions may be damaged. You can check the relevant publication out [[http://www.lastalive.com/public_domain/efects_of_nuclear_weapons/effects11.pdf here]], while a detailed explanation by an expert in the field is [[http://www.tboverse.us/HPCAFORUM/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=312 here]].

Here's something called [[http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html The Effects of a Global Thermonuclear War]], so that one can have some idea about, well, [[ExactlyWhatItSaysOnTheTin the effects of a global thermonuclear war.]] Very cheery.

[[http://www.giantbomb.com/fallout-3/3030-20504/forums/nuclear-warfare-101-wall-of-text-alert-2999/ The Nuclear Game]], by Stuart Slade.[[note]]The website hosting the original three essays appears to have gone down in the past few years, but someone on another forum copied the data over. Hence the new link.[[/note]]

** If the cloud or head of the cloud is lighter than the stem, or the stem is broken or nonexistent, the weapon was likely an air burst. This means two things - one possibly good for your survival, one possibly very bad. The "good" thing is that air bursts produce far less fallout (though you'll still likely have to follow the options below for ''some'' time). [[note]] Hiroshima and Nagasaki were air bursts, which is why surrounding areas in Japan did not sustain serious fallout exposure.[[/note]]. The bad thing is that an air burst almost certainly means an attack from another nuclear-capable nation and ''at best'' means a North Korean attack or that a nuclear-capable nation has accidentally used the weapon.

For this discussion, we will detonate a 1 megaton nuclear weapon in UsefulNotes/LosAngeles. [[Creator/{{Disney}} 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, California]] ([[LudicrousPrecision Lat 34.155744, Lon -118.326766]][[note]][[https://www.google.com/maps/@34.155744,-118.326766,14z You can follow along here on Google Maps if you like]][[/note]][[note]][[https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ or use this handy-dandy simulator]][[/note]]) will be ground zero and the bomb will detonate on the ground.[[note]][[DisproportionateRetribution What, you thought we'd let you get away with Hannah Montana?]][[/note]] This is what is called a "ground burst" and is easier to estimate the damage and casualties than an air burst, but it should be noted that if nuclear weapons were to be used for military purposes (and the two times they were used) the explosions will all but certainly be air burst.[[note]]Low-yield ground bursts might be militarily useful if the objective is to limit the radius of destruction, target military infrastructure with minimal collateral damage to nearby population centres, or to do things like deeply and irreparably crater a site — but the enhanced fallout would be a high cost.[[/note]] But we want to give a reasonable explanation for this article, so we'll use the simpler explanation of a ground burst.

It is to be noted that the distinction between a 'counter-value' (attacks on industry, infrastructure) and 'counter-force' (attacks on military targets) nuclear strike can be an academic one in some countries. For example, the UK is so small that almost every population centre in the country is within the blast radius, CEP (Circular Error probability, the amount to which the weapon is likely to be off target), firestorm-radius, or fallout-zone of its military targets. The Soviet Union, by contrast, kept their nuclear weapons and facilities well away from their cities due to both security and environmental considerations (many of their bases were extremely cold). A lot of this was because the USSR was several hundred times larger than the UK and its major population centers were even further apart than the USA's (even though it was more than twice as large as the USA by land area, the Soviet Union's population was only slightly smaller and was mostly concentrated in European Russia and the Ukraine).

This mushroom cloud disperses in a matter of hours. During that time, fallout starts raining down on the ground. Radioactive fallout consists of what's left of the bomb, stuff caught in the fireball that's been made radioactive by the bomb's intense neutron radiation, and a whole host of new and exciting isotopes created in the explosion itself. Most of it has half-lives short enough to disappear within hours, days or weeks. This is the idea behind fallout shelters - not to spend the rest of your life down there, but to wait in a shelter for a couple of days until the worst of the fallout has disappeared. However, stuff like strontium-90 (half-life of 29 years) or caesium-137 (30 years) have half-lives short enough to be really radioactive, but long enough to stick around and cause trouble for decades. It's worth noting people in the radiation biz generally use seven half lives as the rule of thumb when getting to 'zero' radiation, and that's not counting radioactive daughter products. This is why the (control) Vaults in ''VideoGame/{{Fallout}}'' were set to open after twenty years. (Radiation in ''Fallout'' [[ArtisticLicenseNuclearPhysics works in ways]] that [[INeedAFreakingDrink make nuclear physicists drink]], but it's still worth noting.)

For this discussion, we will detonate a 1 megaton nuclear weapon in UsefulNotes/LosAngeles. [[Creator/{{Disney}} 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, California]] ([[LudicrousPrecision Lat 34.155744, Lon -118.326766]][[note]][[https://www.google.com/maps/@34.155744,-118.326766,14z You can follow along here on Google Maps if you like]][[/note]][[note]][[https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ or use this handy-dandy simulator]][[/note]]) will be ground zero and the bomb will detonate on the ground.[[note]][[DisproportionateRetribution What, you thought we'd let you get away with Hannah Montana?]][[/note]] This is what is called a "ground burst" and is easier to estimate the damage and casualties than an air burst, but it should be noted that if nuclear weapons were to be used for military purposes (and the two times they were used) the explosions will all but certainly be air burst.[[note]]Low-yield ground bursts might be militarily useful if the objective is to limit the radius of destruction, target military infrastructure with minimal collateral damage to nearby population centres, or to do things like deeply and irreparably crater a site — but the enhanced fallout would be a high cost.[[/note]] But we want to give a reasonable explanation for this article, so we'll use the simpler explanation of a ground burst

** A general note on warnings- for a strike launched from the USA, the USSR or PRC would get about 20 minutes warning before the first explosions - something that contributed heavily to Soviet and Chinese paranoia in the '60s in general and the Cuban Missile Crisis in particular, given that their own nuclear missiles of the time took several hours to be deployed and fueled. From the Soviet Union the People's Republic of China would have gotten about five minutes' warning (and vice versa), and from the USSR The UK would have gotten ''four'' - just enough time to make a [[SpotOfTea nice cup/pot of tea.]] But not to drink it.

For this discussion, we will detonate a 1 megaton nuclear weapon in UsefulNotes/LosAngeles. [[Creator/{{Disney}} 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, California]] ([[LudicrousPrecision Lat 34.155744, Lon -118.326766]][[note]][[https://www.google.com/maps/@34.155744,-118.326766,14z You can follow along here on Google Maps if you like]][[/note]]) will be ground zero and the bomb will detonate on the ground.[[note]][[DisproportionateRetribution What, you thought we'd let you get away with Hannah Montana?]][[/note]] This is what is called a "ground burst" and is easier to estimate the damage and casualties than an air burst, but it should be noted that if nuclear weapons were to be used for military purposes (and the two times they were used) the explosions will all but certainly be air burst.[[note]]Low-yield ground bursts might be militarily useful if the objective is to limit the radius of destruction, target military infrastructure with minimal collateral damage to nearby population centres, or to do things like deeply and irreparably crater a site — but the enhanced fallout would be a high cost.[[/note]] But we want to give a reasonable explanation for this article, so we'll use the simpler explanation of a ground burst

The EMP occurs when the intense flux of gamma radiation from a nuclear explosion produces an ionized region in the surrounding medium via a mechanism known as Compton scattering. The gamma rays strip electrons off of things, producing Compton electrons and positively-charged cations. The electrons are much lighter than the cations and same sign charges repel; the electrons travel to the outer parts of the deposition region while the cations stay in the central part. The outer parts are negatively charged; the inner parts are positively charged. Because this deposition region is never symmetrical or spherical (it could only be so under ideal conditions) there is a net vertical electron current (that is, there's a net flow of electrons. This is in the opposite direction as the conventional current, which is positive, and obviously vertically-oriented). This produces an intense pulse of broadband electromagnetic radiation, which is the EMP, which radiates outwards at the speed of light. Electromagnetic waves have notationally infinite range, but in practice are limited by the inverse-square law and atmospheric attenuation. Anyway, this electromagnetic radiation can be picked up by conductive objects in the same manner that an antenna picks up a signal, and once transmitted to electronics, damaging them. In fact, the EMP is so intense that it can lead to very strong currents, although for only very short durations, in things that normally aren't very conductive. Close to the Earth, the ground, which conducts electricity well, allows the electrons an alternative return path to the central deposition region, which results in an intense magnetic field in the air and ground, but in those areas there's more to worry about from the actual explosion. Effects from the emitted EM radiation can be felt over a greater area.

As regards to weapon yields, it is worth noting that

* The availability of medical personnel and assistance, although they would be overwhelmed in even the smallest exchange. A 1978 study calculated that treating the wounded in a single-weapon attack upon the USA's city of 'Detroit' ''would exceeed the total medical resources of North America'' - the study anticipating several hundred thousand victims with severe burns versus an intensive-burn-unit capacity of less than 3000 people in North America. Treating the wounded would have been further complicated by the destruction of most, if not all, Detroit's medical infrastructure in the attack.

For this discussion, we will detonate a 1 megaton nuclear weapon in UsefulNotes/LosAngeles. [[Creator/{{Disney}} 500 South Buena Vista Street, Burbank, California]] ([[LudicrousPrecision Lat 34.155744, Lon -118.326766]]) will be ground zero and the bomb will detonate on the ground.[[note]][[DisproportionateRetribution What, you thought we'd let you get away with Hannah Montana?]][[/note]] This is what is called a "ground burst" and is easier to estimate the damage and casualties than an air burst, but it should be noted that if nuclear weapons were to be used for military purposes (and the two times they were used) the explosions will all but certainly be air burst.[[note]]Low-yield ground bursts might be militarily useful if the objective is to limit the radius of destruction, target military infrastructure with minimal collateral damage to nearby population centres, or to do things like deeply and irreparably crater a site — but the enhanced fallout would be a high cost.[[/note]] But we want to give a reasonable explanation for this article, so we'll use the simpler explanation of a ground burst

Let's explain the term 'half-life' which you've probably heard many times but aren't sure what it means. It's the amount of time it takes for half of something radioactive to disappear.[[note]]Well, actually, to decay into something else. For some nuclides, that something else is harmless and non-radioactive, but for others, whatever it decays into is ''also'' radioactive. And possibly even worse.[[/note]] Say for example that you have a radioactive sample with a half-life of one month that would kill you after an hour's exposure (1,000 rems (10 Sv) within an hour is a guaranteed fatal dose of radiation). Then, after 30 days, only half of the sample would remain and it would now need two hours of exposure to kill you. After 60 days, four hours, after 90 days, eight hours, after 120 days, sixteen hours and so on. Now, if its half-life is ten years, then it's going to take an awfully long time before it's safe to be anywhere near it (unless in lead suits, that is). On the plus side, the longer the half-life, the less radioactive something is.

[[caption-width-right:350:''[[AC:[[color:red:"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."]]]]'']]

One of the most iconic images from the ''Series/FallOut'' video game series is a picture of [[http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110809182235/fallout/images/c/c0/VaultBoyFO3.png Vault Boy holding his arm out and giving a thumbs up]]. He's not celebrating or approving of anything-- he's testing to see if he's in the fallout radius. Convention has it that if you can hold your arm out at full length and completely hide the mushroom cloud on the horizon behind your thumb, then you're outside of the fallout zone. If you still see the cloud outside of your thumb, then you're not safe. Of course, this method of testing is depending on the idea that the size of the cloud is directly proportionate to the fallout it will create. Not a very reliable testing method in the event of an actual detonation.

This mushroom cloud disperses in a matter of hours. During that time, fallout starts raining down on the ground. Radioactive fallout consists of what's left of the bomb, stuff caught in the fireball that's been made radioactive by the bomb's intense neutron radiation, and a whole host of new and exciting isotopes created in the explosion itself. Most of it has half-lives short enough to disappear within hours, days or weeks. This is the idea behind fallout shelters - not to spend the rest of your life down there, but to wait in a shelter for a couple of days until the worst of the fallout has disappeared. However, stuff like strontium-90 (half-life of 29 years) or caesium-137 (30 years) have half-lives short enough to be really radioactive, but long enough to stick around and cause trouble for decades. It's worth noting people in the radiation biz generally use seven half lives as the rule of thumb when getting to 'zero' radiation, and that's not counting radioactive daughter products. This is why the (control) Vaults in ''Franchise/{{Fallout}}'' were set to open after twenty years. (Radiation in ''Fallout'' [[ArtisticLicenseNuclearPhysics works in ways]] that [[INeedAFreakingDrink make nuclear physicists drink]], but it's still worth noting.)

* If all electric power goes out ''and'' your car or motorcycle stalled or your battery-powered phone or laptop or radio also failed or you spotted arcing from outlets/power lines, then an EMP from airburst may be responsible, that or a sufficiently powerful Coronal Mass Ejection, or CME, from the sun aimed directly at the earth. Hope it's the sun's doing because if it's an EMP thn its also a sign that none of the below will help because unless the air burst itself was the accident/attack, an air burst generally means a wider attack. Your only chance at this point, if you choose that you want to try to live, is to get into a blast shelter or underground location within 20 minutes and hope it ''was'' an accident or EMP attack, wait it out, and hope it was not the aforementioned global thermonuclear war.

* If all electric power goes out ''and'' your car or motorcycle stalled or your battery-powered phone or laptop or radio also failed or you spotted arcing from outlets/power lines, then an EMP from airburst may be responsible, that or a sufficiently powerful Coronol Mass Ejection, or CME, from the sun aimed directly at the earth. Hope it's the sun's doing because if it's an EMP thn its also a sign that none of the below will help because unless the air burst itself was the accident/attack, an air burst generally means a wider attack. Your only chance at this point, if you choose that you want to try to live, is to get into a blast shelter or underground location within 20 minutes and hope it ''was'' an accident or EMP attack, wait it out, and hope it was not the aforementioned global thermonuclear war.

* If all electric power goes out ''and'' your car or motorcycle stalled or your battery-powered phone or laptop or radio also failed or you spotted arcing from outlets/power lines, assume EMP from airburst. This is also a sign that none of the below will help because unless the air burst itself was the accident/attack, an air burst generally means a wider attack. Your only chance at this point, if you choose that you want to try to live, is to get into a blast shelter or underground location within 20 minutes and hope it ''was'' an accident or EMP attack, wait it out, and hope it was not the aforementioned global thermonuclear war.

Much of the directly affected countries' food stocks would be destroyed in the attacks. Distribution of what was left would be extremely difficult, but might still be possible if the government were able to maintain control over the country and attempt to direct it to where it was most needed. Food-exporting countries generally maintain sufficient grain reserves to last between harvests (up to six months), and so it is not inconceivable that enough might survive to service the reduced population until then. However, it may be necessary to restrict provision in the first two weeks after the attack so that no food is wasted on those who will die of radiation poisoning before they could be used as agricultural labour. Afterward, their survival would be contingent upon outside food aid and the next harvest (c. 9th month).

Much of the directly affected countries' food stocks would be destroyed in the attacks, and the distribution of what was left would be impossible regardless of the government's ability to maintain effective control of the country. Food-exporting countries generally maintain sufficient grain reserves to last between harvests (up to six months), and enough might survive to feed the reduced population until then. That said, even in such a country it would be necessary to restrict food provision in the first two weeks following the war to prevent food from being wasted on those who will die of radiation poisoning within two months. After stocks were depleted, the survival of the population would be contingent upon the next harvest (c. 9th month).

For a several-year period most harvests would be poor or fail due to a temperature drop of at least ten degrees for a period of at least five years, high UV-exposure, acid-rain from the injection of industrial chemicals into the atmosphere by the nuclear-ignited firestorms which consumed the cities, loss of the microbes and fungi which facilitate complex plant life in the topsoil, increased need for pesticides given the death of many birds and other insect-eating predators, and soil erosion caused by the inability to sustain plant life of many kinds or any kind on much of the available land. It is a distinct possibility that chemical pollutants and cumulative UV exposure in the at least twenty-year period in which the ozone layer is functionally absent will facilitate the death of much or all tree life. It is a virtual certainty that this will occur among forests in the immediately affected areas, due to higher polutant exposure and the added effects of fallout. Firestorms would eventually consume these dead forests, cooling the planet further.

Further complicating the ability of nation-states to implement an effective agricultural programme would be the period of rapid global warming which will occur from the fifth year onward. Within twenty years of the war the ice caps would melt and the world would become several degrees hotter than it was pre-war, for a change in excess of ten degrees over a fifteen year period. This would occur due to the dispersal of ash near the surface of the world's oceans and across the ice caps, which would decrease the amount of visible light reflected into space (Albedo Effect) and thereby increase their heat absorption. Warming would also occur because of the increased carbon levels brought about by the liberation of the carbon hitherto stored in the former cities and the (near-)extinction of oceanic algae - which are presently the primary converters of carbon dioxide to oxygen. Mass forest deaths and firestorms would have a short-term cooling effect from the further injection of ash into the upper atmosphere and a medium-term warming effect from their release of carbon.

The initial radiation may well kill you, but at the distance it would, you're dead anyway from the other effects. The fallout stuff can cause hair loss, infertility, cataracts, tumors, heart failure and generally a nasty death, much earlier than planned. To get something of an idea, watch ''{{Threads}}''.

*** If you still feel heat, that means the flash is ongoing. If ''things around you are catching fire,'' as in Film/{{Threads}}, that would almost always mean either you're way too close to ground zero and likely dead/dying, or the flash was [[ShownTheirWork above 3 seconds]] unless the objects are ''highly'' combustible, since most things that aren't purposefully made to burn/easily burnable generally take longer than a couple seconds of even the most intense heat exposure (see above in the note on cars) to ignite.

Global agriculture would be impossible given soil radioactivity, soil pollution/acidity, pests, lack of sunlight, lack of labour, critically erratic rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, soil loss from the aforementioned factors, and a temperature drop exceeding twenty degrees for at least five years. This drop would be compounded by the razing of the former forests. High UV-exposure would eventually replace the lack of sunlight, but rainfall and general weather would continue to be highly unpredictable and erratic given global warming considerably in excess of twenty degrees after the fifth year.

Further complicating the ability of nation-states to implement an effective agricultural programme would be the period of global warming which will occur from the fifth year onward. Within twenty years of the war the ice caps would melt and the world would become several degrees hotter than it was pre-war, for a change in excess of ten degrees over a fifteen year period. This would occur due to the dispersal of ash near the surface of the world's oceans and across the ice caps, which would decrease the amount of visible light reflected into space (Albedo Effect) and thereby increase their heat absorption. Warming would also occur because of the increased carbon levels brought about by the liberation of the carbon hitherto stored in the former cities and the (near-)extinction of oceanic algae - which are presently the primary converters of carbon dioxide to oxygen. Mass forest deaths and firestorms would have a short-term cooling effect from the further injection of ash into the upper atmosphere and a medium-term warming effect from their release of carbon.

Global agriculture would be impossible given soil radioactivity, soil pollution/acidity, pests, lack of sunlight, lack of labour, critically erratic rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, soil loss from the aforementioned factors, and a temperature drop exceeding twenty degrees for at least five years. This drop would be compounded by the razing of the former forests.

Even before the advent of high UV-exposure and global warming significantly in excess of prewar temperatures, virtually all complex oceanic and land-based life would become extinct.

This would entail at least 80% death within 3 days in immediate areas given preparation, at least 90% without. Near-total death of the population of the immediate areas would occur within six months. This would occur due to a mixture of stockpile loss and the impossibility of hand-cultivation agriculture given soil erosion, pollution/acidity, radioactivity, pests, UV levels, and lack of labour.

The near-total death of global population would also occur within six months. Mechanised agriculture would be impossible in most areas due to a temperature drop exceeding twenty degrees for at least five years, lack of sunlight, highly disrupted weather patterns, pollution, and UV-exposure. The temperature drop would be compounded by global forest death and firestorms.

The temperature drop, lack of sunlight, UV-exposure, pollution, and temperature rise to a level many degrees in excess of the prewar average would result in virtually all complex oceanic and land-based life becoming extinct.

The near-total death of global population would also occur within six months. Mechanised agriculture would also be impossible in most areas due to temperature drop exceeding twenty degrees for at least five years, lack of sunlight, highly disrupted weather patterns, pollution, UV-exposure, and lack of labour. The temperature drop would be compounded by global forest death and firestorms.

This would entail at least 80% death within 3 days in immediate areas given preparation, at least 90% without. Near-total death of hte population of the immediate areas would occur within six months. This would occur due to a mixture of stockpile loss and the impossibility of hand-cultivation agriculture given soil erosion, pollution/acidity, radioactivity, pests, UV levels, and lack of labour.

Perhaps most importantly, rainfall and weather patterns would change in ways that we cannot and could not predict throughout both the five-year cooling and fifteen-year warming periods. It is unclear whether the world's agricultural regions would experience drought, flooding, or both. Cropping areas would have to be totally re-thought given the changes in temperature and rainfall, assuming that any discernible patterns emerged in the rapidly cooling, then heating climate.

Further complicating the ability of nation-states to implement an effective agricultural programme would be the period of global warming which will occur from the fifth year onward. Within twenty years of the war the ice caps would melt and the world would become several degrees hotter than it was pre-war, for a change in excess of ten degrees over a fifteen year period. This would occur due to the dispersal of ash near the surface of the world's oceans and across the ice caps, which would decrease the amount of visible light reflected into space (Albedo Effect) and thereby increase their heat absorption. Warming would also occur because of the increased carbon levels brought about by the liberation of the carbon hitherto stored in the former cities and the (near-)extinction of oceanic algae - which are presently the primary converters of carbon dioxide to oxygen. If they were to occur, mass forest deaths and firestorms would have a short-term cooling effect from the further injection of ash into the upper atmosphere and a medium-term warming effect from their release of carbon.